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Andrés García-Medina

Publications and source records attributed to Andrés García-Medina.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Iterative detection of global factors near the BBP phase transition

Detecting the number of global factors in high-dimensional correlation matrices is a central problem in multivariate statistics and random matrix theory, with important implications for asset pricing and econophysics. When the number of variables $p$ is comparable to the number of observations $n$, signal-to-noise separation becomes difficult, especially near the Baik--Ben Arous--Péché (BBP) transition, where weak factors may be confused with fluctuations at the Marčenko--Pastur spectral edge. In this work, we characterize the participation-ratio (PR) structure of the Brown--Harding (BH) factor model. Under strong common loadings, the leading coherent eigenvector $u_1$ satisfies $\mathrm{PR}(u_1)/p\to 1$, whereas weak-factor directions and typical idiosyncratic sample eigenvectors $u$ satisfy the delocalized benchmark $\mathrm{PR}(u)/p\to 1/3$. These limits motivate an eigenvector-level criterion for retaining extensive directions. We propose an iterative global factor (IGF) algorithm that combines adaptive Marčenko--Pastur edge recalibration with a PR delocalization filter. The method iteratively reestimates the effective noise level, tests eigenvalue separation from the residual bulk, and retains only spectrally separated components with sufficiently extended eigenvectors. Monte Carlo simulations of the BH factor model show that IGF recovers the true number of factors near the BBP transition, where eigenvalue-only criteria can fail or remain ambiguous. A synthetic moving-window calibration matched to the empirical dimensions, which is then applied to S\&P 500 returns. IGF detects a richer and more dynamic set of global factors than the Onatski test, with a median count of 7 factors. The results indicate that combining spectral separation with eigenvector delocalization improves the detectability of global-factor estimation in high-dimensional financial correlation matrices.

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Technical Analysis Meets Machine Learning: Bitcoin Evidence

In this note, we compare Bitcoin trading performance using two machine learning models-Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-and two technical analysis-based strategies: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover and a combination of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence with the Average Directional Index (MACD+ADX). The objective is to evaluate how trading signals can be used to maximize profits in the Bitcoin market. This comparison was motivated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on 2024-01-10. Our results show that the LSTM model achieved a cumulative return of approximately 65.23% in under a year, significantly outperforming LightGBM, the EMA and MACD+ADX strategies, as well as the baseline buy-and-hold. This study highlights the potential for deeper integration of machine learning and technical analysis in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

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High-dimensional covariance matrix estimators on simulated portfolios with complex structures

We study the allocation of synthetic portfolios under hierarchical nested, one-factor, and diagonal structures of the population covariance matrix in a high-dimensional scenario. The noise reduction approaches for the sample realizations are based on random matrices, free probability, deterministic equivalents, and their combination with a data science hierarchical method known as two-step covariance estimators. The financial performance metrics from the simulations are compared with empirical data from companies comprising the S&P 500 index using a moving window and walk-forward analysis. The portfolio allocation strategies analyzed include the minimum variance portfolio (both with and without short-selling constraints) and the hierarchical risk parity approach. Our proposed hierarchical nested covariance model shows signatures of complex system interactions. The empirical financial data reproduces stylized portfolio facts observed in the complex and one-factor covariance models. The two-step estimators proposed here improve several financial metrics under the analyzed investment strategies. The results pave the way for new risk management and diversification approaches when the number of assets is of the same order as the number of transaction days in the investment portfolio.

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Two-step estimators of high dimensional correlation matrices

We investigate block diagonal and hierarchical nested stochastic multivariate Gaussian models by studying their sample cross-correlation matrix on high dimensions. By performing numerical simulations, we compare a filtered sample cross-correlation with the population cross-correlation matrices by using several rotationally invariant estimators (RIE) and hierarchical clustering estimators (HCE) under several loss functions. We show that at large but finite sample size, sample cross-correlation filtered by RIE estimators are often outperformed by HCE estimators for several of the loss functions. We also show that for block models and for hierarchically nested block models the best determination of the filtered sample cross-correlation is achieved by introducing two-step estimators combining state-of-the-art non-linear shrinkage models with hierarchical clustering estimators.

stat.ME↗

Random matrix theory and nested clustered portfolios on Mexican markets

This work aims to deal with the optimal allocation instability problem of Markowitz's modern portfolio theory in high dimensionality. We propose a combined strategy that considers covariance matrix estimators from Random Matrix Theory~(RMT) and the machine learning allocation methodology known as Nested Clustered Optimization~(NCO). The latter methodology is modified and reformulated in terms of the spectral clustering algorithm and Minimum Spanning Tree~(MST) to solve internal problems inherent to the original proposal. Markowitz's classical mean-variance allocation and the modified NCO machine learning approach are tested on financial instruments listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange~(BMV) in a moving window analysis from 2018 to 2022. The modified NCO algorithm achieves stable allocations by incorporating RMT covariance estimators. In particular, the allocation weights are positive, and their absolute value adds up to the total capital without considering explicit restrictions in the formulation. Our results suggest that can be avoided the risky \emph{short position} investment strategy by means of RMT inference and statistical learning techniques.

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What drives bitcoin? An approach from continuous local transfer entropy and deep learning classification models

Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of a wide range of determinants on bitcoins' price direction under the continuous transfer entropy approach as a feature selection criterion. Accordingly, the statistically significant assets in the sense of permutation test on the nearest neighbour estimation of local transfer entropy are used as features or explanatory variables in a deep learning classification model to predict the price direction of bitcoin. The proposed variable selection methodology excludes the NASDAQ index and Tesla as drivers. Under different scenarios and metrics, the best results are obtained using the significant drivers during the pandemic as validation. In the test, the accuracy increased in the post-pandemic scenario of July 2020 to January 2021 without drivers. In other words, our results indicate that in times of high volatility, Bitcoin seems to autoregulate and does not need additional drivers to improve the accuracy of the price direction.

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Correlations and Flow of Information between The New York Times and Stock Markets

We use Random Matrix Theory (RMT) and information theory to analyze the correlations and flow of information between 64,939 news from The New York Times and 40 world financial indices during 10 months along the period 2015-2016. The set of news was quantified and transformed into daily polarity time series using tools from sentiment analysis. Results from RMT shows that a common factor lead the world indices and news, and even share the same dynamics. Furthermore, the global correlation structure has found preserved when adding white noise, which indicate that correlations are not due to sample size effects. Likewise, we found a lot of information flowing from news to world indices for specific delay, being of practical interest for trading purpose. Our results suggest a deep relationship between news and world indices, and show a situation where news drive world market movements, giving a new evidence to support behavioral finance as the current economic paradigm.

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