arXiv subjects

Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo

Publications and source records attributed to Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Small-Scale and Global Dynamos and the Area and Flux Distributions of Active Regions, Sunspot Groups, and Sunspots: A Multi-Database Study

In this work we take advantage of eleven different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions -- where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizes the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) $10^{21}$Mx ($10^{22}$Mx). We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behavior of a power-law distribution (when extended into smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. (2009).

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arXiv2013

Using the Dipolar and Quadrupolar Moments to Improve Solar-Cycle Predictions Based on the Polar Magnetic Fields

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions, leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. Here we show that cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere, taking advantage of information about both the dipolar and quadrupolar moments of the solar magnetic field during minimum.

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arXiv2013

Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal vs.\ poloidal). Here we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies), to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated to cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e. the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

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arXiv2013

The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 a consequence of Sun's meridional plasma flow variations

Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions and are generated by a dynamo mechanism which recreates the solar polar field mediated via plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in the early half of a cycle, followed by a slower flow in the latter half, reproduces both the characteristics of the minimum of sunspot cycle 23 - a large number of spotless days and a relatively weak polar field. Our model predicts that, in general, very deep minima are associated with weak polar fields. Sunspots govern the solar radiative energy and radio flux, and in conjunction with the polar field, modulate the solar wind, heliospheric open flux and consequently cosmic ray flux at Earth; our results therefore provide a causal link between solar internal dynamics and the atypical values of these heliospheric forcing parameters during the recently concluded solar minimum.

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arXiv2013

Calibrating 100 Years of Polar Faculae Measurements: Implications for the Evolution of the Heliospheric Magnetic Field

Although the Sun's polar magnetic fields are thought to provide important clues for understanding the 11-year sunspot cycle, including the observed variations of its amplitude and period, the current database of high-quality polar-field measurements spans relatively few sunspot cycles. In this paper we address this deficiency by consolidating Mount Wilson Observatory polar faculae data from four data reduction campaigns, validating it through a comparison with facular data counted automatically from MDI intensitygrams, and calibrating it against polar field measurements taken by the Wilcox Solar Observatory and average polar field and total polar flux calculated using MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. Our results show that the consolidated polar facular measurements are in excellent agreement with both polar field and polar flux estimates, making them an ideal proxy to study the evolution of the polar magnetic field. Additionally, we combine this database with sunspot area measurements to study the role of the polar magnetic flux in the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF). We find that there is a strong correlation between HMF and polar flux at solar minimum and that, taken together, polar flux and sunspot area are better at explaining the evolution of the HMF during the last century than sunspot area alone.

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arXiv2010

A Double-Ring Algorithm for Modeling Solar Active Regions: Unifying Kinematic Dynamo Models and Surface Flux-Transport Simulations

The emergence of tilted bipolar active regions and the dispersal of their flux, mediated via processes such as diffusion, differential rotation and meridional circulation is believed to be responsible for the reversal of the Sun's polar field. This process (commonly known as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism) is usually modeled as a near-surface, spatially distributed $α$-effect in kinematic mean-field dynamo models. However, this formulation leads to a relationship between polar field strength and meridional flow speed which is opposite to that suggested by physical insight and predicted by surface flux-transport simulations. With this in mind, we present an improved double-ring algorithm for modeling the Babcock-Leighton mechanism based on active region eruption, within the framework of an axisymmetric dynamo model. Using surface flux-transport simulations we first show that an axisymmetric formulation -- which is usually invoked in kinematic dynamo models -- can reasonably approximate the surface flux dynamics. Finally, we demonstrate that our treatment of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism through double-ring eruption leads to an inverse relationship between polar field strength and meridional flow speed as expected, reconciling the discrepancy between surface flux-transport simulations and kinematic dynamo models.

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arXiv2010

Magnetic Quenching of Turbulent Diffusivity: Reconciling Mixing-length Theory Estimates with Kinematic Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle

The turbulent magnetic diffusivity in the solar convection zone is one of the most poorly constrained ingredients of mean-field dynamo models. This lack of constraint has previously led to controversy regarding the most appropriate set of parameters, as different assumptions on the value of turbulent diffusivity lead to radically different solar cycle predictions. Typically, the dynamo community uses double step diffusivity profiles characterized by low values of diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone. However, these low diffusivity values are not consistent with theoretical estimates based on mixing-length theory -- which suggest much higher values for turbulent diffusivity. To make matters worse, kinematic dynamo simulations cannot yield sustainable magnetic cycles using these theoretical estimates. In this work we show that magnetic cycles become viable if we combine the theoretically estimated diffusivity profile with magnetic quenching of the diffusivity. Furthermore, we find that the main features of this solution can be reproduced by a dynamo simulation using a prescribed (kinematic) diffusivity profile that is based on the spatiotemporal geometric-average of the dynamically quenched diffusivity. Here, we provide an analytic fit to the dynamically quenched diffusivity profile, which can be used in kinematic dynamo simulations. Having successfully reconciled the mixing-length theory estimated diffusivity profile with kinematic dynamo models, we argue that they remain a viable tool for understanding the solar magnetic cycle.

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arXiv2009

Helioseismic data inclusion in solar dynamo models

An essential ingredient in kinematic dynamo models is the velocity field within the solar convection zone. In particular, the differential rotation is now well constrained by helioseismic observations. Helioseismology also gives us information about the depth-dependence of the meridional circulation in the near-surface layers. The typical velocity inputs used in solar dynamo models, however, continue to be an analytic fit to the observed differential rotation and a theoretically constructed meridional flow profile that matches only the peak flow speed at the surface. Here we take the first steps towards realistic helioseismic data assimilation, by presenting methodologies for constructing differential rotation and meridional circulation profiles that more closely conform to the observational constraints currently available. We also present simulations driven by the assimilated rotation and four plausible profiles for the internal meridional circulation -- all of which match the helioseismically inferred near-surface depth-dependence, but whose magnitudes are made to vary. We discuss how the results compare with those that are driven by purely analytic fits. Our results indicate that the latitudinal shear of the rotation in the bulk of the solar convection zone plays a more important role, than either the tachocline or surface radial shear, in the induction of toroidal field. We also find that it is the speed of the equatorward counter-flow in the meridional flow at the base of the convection zone, and not how far into the radiative interior it penetrates, that primarily determines the dynamo cycle period. Given that improved helioseismic constraints are expected to be available in the future, our analysis lays the basis for assimilating these data within dynamo models.

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