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Andrea Arfè

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Arfè.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

A general Bayesian bootstrap for censored data based on the beta-Stacy process

We introduce a novel procedure to perform Bayesian non-parametric inference with right-censored data, the \emph{beta-Stacy bootstrap}. This approximates the posterior law of summaries of the survival distribution (e.g. the mean survival time). More precisely, our procedure approximates the joint posterior law of functionals of the beta-Stacy process, a non-parametric process prior that generalizes the Dirichlet process and that is widely used in survival analysis. The beta-Stacy bootstrap generalizes and unifies other common Bayesian bootstraps for complete or censored data based on non-parametric priors. It is defined by an exact sampling algorithm that does not require tuning of Markov Chain Monte Carlo steps. We illustrate the beta-Stacy bootstrap by analyzing survival data from a real clinical trial.

stat.ME↗

The semi-Markov beta-Stacy process: a Bayesian non-parametric prior for semi-Markov processes

The literature on Bayesian methods for the analysis of discrete-time semi-Markov processes is sparse. In this paper, we introduce the semi-Markov beta-Stacy process, a stochastic process useful for the Bayesian non-parametric analysis of semi-Markov processes. The semi-Markov beta-Stacy process is conjugate with respect to data generated by a semi-Markov process, a property which makes it easy to obtain probabilistic forecasts. Its predictive distributions are characterized by a reinforced random walk on a system of urns.

math.ST↗