arXiv subjects

Andrea L. Bertozzi

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea L. Bertozzi.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Stochastic Block Models are a Discrete Surface Tension

Networks, which represent agents and interactions between them, arise in myriad applications throughout the sciences, engineering, and even the humanities. To understand large-scale structure in a network, a common task is to cluster a network's nodes into sets called "communities", such that there are dense connections within communities but sparse connections between them. A popular and statistically principled method to perform such clustering is to use a family of generative models known as stochastic block models (SBMs). In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimation in an SBM is a network analog of a well-known continuum surface-tension problem that arises from an application in metallurgy. To illustrate the utility of this relationship, we implement network analogs of three surface-tension algorithms, with which we successfully recover planted community structure in synthetic networks and which yield fascinating insights on empirical networks that we construct from hyperspectral videos.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

A Study on Graph-Structured Recurrent Neural Networks and Sparsification with Application to Epidemic Forecasting

We study epidemic forecasting on real-world health data by a graph-structured recurrent neural network (GSRNN). We achieve state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on the benchmark CDC dataset. To improve model efficiency, we sparsify the network weights via transformed-$\ell_1$ penalty and maintain prediction accuracy at the same level with 70% of the network weights being zero.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction

There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of the reconstructed networks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Modeling Environmental Crime in Protected Areas Using the Level Set Method

National parks often serve as hotspots for environmental crime such as illegal deforestation and animal poaching. Previous attempts to model environmental crime were either discrete and network-based or required very restrictive assumptions on the geometry of the protected region and made heavy use of radial symmetry. We formulate a level set method to track criminals inside a protected region which uses real elevation data to determine speed of travel, does not require any assumptions of symmetry, and can be applied to regions of arbitrary shape. In doing so, we design a Hamilton-Jacobi equation to describe movement of criminals while also incorporating the effects of patrollers who attempt to deter the crime. We discuss the numerical schemes that we use to solve this Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Finally, we apply our method to Yosemite National Park and Kangaroo Island, Australia and design practical patrol strategies with the goal of minimizing the area that is affected by criminal activity.

math.NA↗

arXiv2018

Crime Topic Modeling

The classification of crime into discrete categories entails a massive loss of information. Crimes emerge out of a complex mix of behaviors and situations, yet most of these details cannot be captured by singular crime type labels. This information loss impacts our ability to not only understand the causes of crime, but also how to develop optimal crime prevention strategies. We apply machine learning methods to short narrative text descriptions accompanying crime records with the goal of discovering ecologically more meaningful latent crime classes. We term these latent classes "crime topics" in reference to text-based topic modeling methods that produce them. We use topic distributions to measure clustering among formally recognized crime types. Crime topics replicate broad distinctions between violent and property crime, but also reveal nuances linked to target characteristics, situational conditions and the tools and methods of attack. Formal crime types are not discrete in topic space. Rather, crime types are distributed across a range of crime topics. Similarly, individual crime topics are distributed across a range of formal crime types. Key ecological groups include identity theft, shoplifting, burglary and theft, car crimes and vandalism, criminal threats and confidence crimes, and violent crimes. Though not a replacement for formal legal crime classifications, crime topics provide a unique window into the heterogeneous causal processes underlying crime.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Optimal Human Navigation in Steep Terrain: a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Approach

We present a method for determining optimal walking paths in steep terrain using the level set method and an optimal control formulation. By viewing the walking direction as a control variable, we can determine the optimal control by solving a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We then calculate the optimal walking path by solving an ordinary differential equation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by computing optimal paths which travel throughout mountainous regions of Yosemite National Park. We include details regarding the numerical implementation of our model and address a specific application of a law enforcement agency patrolling a nationally protected area.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Quantitative Assessment of Robotic Swarm Coverage

This paper studies a generally applicable, sensitive, and intuitive error metric for the assessment of robotic swarm density controller performance. Inspired by vortex blob numerical methods, it overcomes the shortcomings of a common strategy based on discretization, and unifies other continuous notions of coverage. We present two benchmarks against which to compare the error metric value of a given swarm configuration: non-trivial bounds on the error metric, and the probability density function of the error metric when robot positions are sampled at random from the target swarm distribution. We give rigorous results that this probability density function of the error metric obeys a central limit theorem, allowing for more efficient numerical approximation. For both of these benchmarks, we present supporting theory, computation methodology, examples, and MATLAB implementation code.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Gamma-convergence of graph Ginzburg-Landau functionals

We study Gamma-convergence of graph based Ginzburg-Landau functionals, both the limit for zero diffusive interface parameter epsilon->0 and the limit for infinite nodes in the graph m -> infinity. For general graphs we prove that in the limit epsilon -> 0 the graph cut objective function is recovered. We show that the continuum limit of this objective function on 4-regular graphs is related to the total variation seminorm and compare it with the limit of the discretized Ginzburg-Landau functional. For both functionals we also study the simultaneous limit epsilon -> 0 and m -> infinity, by expressing epsilon as a power of m and taking m -> infinity. Finally we investigate the continuum limit for a nonlocal means type functional on a completely connected graph.

math.AP↗

arXiv2018

Unsupervised record matching with noisy and incomplete data

We consider the problem of duplicate detection in noisy and incomplete data: given a large data set in which each record has multiple entries (attributes), detect which distinct records refer to the same real world entity. This task is complicated by noise (such as misspellings) and missing data, which can lead to records being different, despite referring to the same entity. Our method consists of three main steps: creating a similarity score between records, grouping records together into "unique entities", and refining the groups. We compare various methods for creating similarity scores between noisy records, considering different combinations of string matching, term frequency-inverse document frequency methods, and n-gram techniques. In particular, we introduce a vectorized soft term frequency-inverse document frequency method, with an optional refinement step. We also discuss two methods to deal with missing data in computing similarity scores. We test our method on the Los Angeles Police Department Field Interview Card data set, the Cora Citation Matching data set, and two sets of restaurant review data. The results show that the methods that use words as the basic units are preferable to those that use 3-grams. Moreover, in some (but certainly not all) parameter ranges soft term frequency-inverse document frequency methods can outperform the standard term frequency-inverse document frequency method. The results also confirm that our method for automatically determining the number of groups typically works well in many cases and allows for accurate results in the absence of a priori knowledge of the number of unique entities in the data set.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2018

Simplified Energy Landscape for Modularity Using Total Variation

Networks capture pairwise interactions between entities and are frequently used in applications such as social networks, food networks, and protein interaction networks, to name a few. Communities, cohesive groups of nodes, often form in these applications, and identifying them gives insight into the overall organization of the network. One common quality function used to identify community structure is modularity. In Hu et al. [SIAM J. App. Math., 73(6), 2013], it was shown that modularity optimization is equivalent to minimizing a particular nonconvex total variation (TV) based functional over a discrete domain. They solve this problem, assuming the number of communities is known, using a Merriman, Bence, Osher (MBO) scheme. We show that modularity optimization is equivalent to minimizing a convex TV-based functional over a discrete domain, again, assuming the number of communities is known. Furthermore, we show that modularity has no convex relaxation satisfying certain natural conditions. We therefore, find a manageable non-convex approximation using a Ginzburg Landau functional, which provably converges to the correct energy in the limit of a certain parameter. We then derive an MBO algorithm with fewer hand-tuned parameters than in Hu et al. and which is 7 times faster at solving the associated diffusion equation due to the fact that the underlying discretization is unconditionally stable. Our numerical tests include a hyperspectral video whose associated graph has 2.9x10^7 edges, which is roughly 37 times larger than was handled in the paper of Hu et al.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Graph-Based Deep Modeling and Real Time Forecasting of Sparse Spatio-Temporal Data

We present a generic framework for spatio-temporal (ST) data modeling, analysis, and forecasting, with a special focus on data that is sparse in both space and time. Our multi-scaled framework is a seamless coupling of two major components: a self-exciting point process that models the macroscale statistical behaviors of the ST data and a graph structured recurrent neural network (GSRNN) to discover the microscale patterns of the ST data on the inferred graph. This novel deep neural network (DNN) incorporates the real time interactions of the graph nodes to enable more accurate real time forecasting. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated on both crime and traffic forecasting.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Uncertainty quantification in graph-based classification of high dimensional data

Classification of high dimensional data finds wide-ranging applications. In many of these applications equipping the resulting classification with a measure of uncertainty may be as important as the classification itself. In this paper we introduce, develop algorithms for, and investigate the properties of, a variety of Bayesian models for the task of binary classification; via the posterior distribution on the classification labels, these methods automatically give measures of uncertainty. The methods are all based around the graph formulation of semi-supervised learning. We provide a unified framework which brings together a variety of methods which have been introduced in different communities within the mathematical sciences. We study probit classification in the graph-based setting, generalize the level-set method for Bayesian inverse problems to the classification setting, and generalize the Ginzburg-Landau optimization-based classifier to a Bayesian setting; we also show that the probit and level set approaches are natural relaxations of the harmonic function approach introduced in [Zhu et al 2003]. We introduce efficient numerical methods, suited to large data-sets, for both MCMC-based sampling as well as gradient-based MAP estimation. Through numerical experiments we study classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification for our models; these experiments showcase a suite of datasets commonly used to evaluate graph-based semi-supervised learning algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Deep Learning for Real-Time Crime Forecasting and its Ternarization

Real-time crime forecasting is important. However, accurate prediction of when and where the next crime will happen is difficult. No known physical model provides a reasonable approximation to such a complex system. Historical crime data are sparse in both space and time and the signal of interests is weak. In this work, we first present a proper representation of crime data. We then adapt the spatial temporal residual network on the well represented data to predict the distribution of crime in Los Angeles at the scale of hours in neighborhood-sized parcels. These experiments as well as comparisons with several existing approaches to prediction demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in terms of accuracy. Finally, we present a ternarization technique to address the resource consumption issue for its deployment in real world. This work is an extension of our short conference proceeding paper [Wang et al, Arxiv 1707.03340].

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Deep Learning for Real Time Crime Forecasting

Accurate real time crime prediction is a fundamental issue for public safety, but remains a challenging problem for the scientific community. Crime occurrences depend on many complex factors. Compared to many predictable events, crime is sparse. At different spatio-temporal scales, crime distributions display dramatically different patterns. These distributions are of very low regularity in both space and time. In this work, we adapt the state-of-the-art deep learning spatio-temporal predictor, ST-ResNet [Zhang et al, AAAI, 2017], to collectively predict crime distribution over the Los Angeles area. Our models are two staged. First, we preprocess the raw crime data. This includes regularization in both space and time to enhance predictable signals. Second, we adapt hierarchical structures of residual convolutional units to train multi-factor crime prediction models. Experiments over a half year period in Los Angeles reveal highly accurate predictive power of our models.

math.NA↗

arXiv2017

Unsupervised Classification in Hyperspectral Imagery with Nonlocal Total Variation and Primal-Dual Hybrid Gradient Algorithm

In this paper, a graph-based nonlocal total variation method (NLTV) is proposed for unsupervised classification of hyperspectral images (HSI). The variational problem is solved by the primal-dual hybrid gradient (PDHG) algorithm. By squaring the labeling function and using a stable simplex clustering routine, an unsupervised clustering method with random initialization can be implemented. The effectiveness of this proposed algorithm is illustrated on both synthetic and real-world HSI, and numerical results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms other standard unsupervised clustering methods such as spherical K-means, nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), and the graph-based Merriman-Bence-Osher (MBO) scheme.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2016

Growth and Containment of a Hierarchical Criminal Network

We model the hierarchical evolution of an organized criminal network via antagonistic recruitment and pursuit processes. Within the recruitment phase, a criminal kingpin enlists new members into the network, who in turn seek out other affiliates. New recruits are linked to established criminals according to a probability distribution that depends on the current network structure. At the same time, law enforcement agents attempt to dismantle the growing organization using pursuit strategies that initiate on the lower level nodes and that unfold as self-avoiding random walks. The global details of the organization are unknown to law enforcement, who must explore the hierarchy node by node. We halt the pursuit when certain local criteria of the network are uncovered, encoding if and when an arrest is made; the criminal network is assumed to be eradicated if the kingpin is arrested. We first analyze recruitment and study the large scale properties of the growing network; later we add pursuit and use numerical simulations to study the eradication probability in the case of three pursuit strategies, the time to first eradication and related costs. Within the context of this model, we find that eradication becomes increasingly costly as the network increases in size and that the optimal way of arresting the kingpin is to intervene at the early stages of network formation. We discuss our results in the context of dark network disruption and their implications on possible law enforcement strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Mean curvature, threshold dynamics, and phase field theory on finite graphs

In the continuum, close connections exist between mean curvature flow, the Allen-Cahn (AC) partial differential equation, and the Merriman-Bence-Osher (MBO) threshold dynamics scheme. Graph analogues of these processes have recently seen a rise in popularity as relaxations of NP-complete combinatorial problems, which demands deeper theoretical underpinnings of the graph processes. The aim of this paper is to introduce these graph processes in the light of their continuum counterparts, provide some background, prove the first results connecting them, illustrate these processes with examples and identify open questions for future study. We derive a graph curvature from the graph cut function, the natural graph counterpart of total variation (perimeter). This derivation and the resulting curvature definition differ from those in earlier literature, where the continuum mean curvature is simply discretized, and bears many similarities to the continuum nonlocal curvature or nonlocal means formulation. This new graph curvature is not only relevant for graph MBO dynamics, but also appears in the variational formulation of a discrete time graph mean curvature flow. We prove estimates showing that the dynamics are trivial for both MBO and AC evolutions if the parameters (the time-step and diffuse interface scale, respectively) are sufficiently small (a phenomenon known as "freezing" or "pinning") and also that the dynamics for MBO are nontrivial if the time step is large enough. These bounds are in terms of graph quantities such as the spectrum of the graph Laplacian and the graph curvature. Adapting a Lyapunov functional for the continuum MBO scheme to graphs, we prove that the graph MBO scheme converges to a stationary state in a finite number of iterations. Variations on this scheme have recently become popular in the literature as ways to minimize (continuum) nonlocal total variation.

math.AP↗

arXiv2014

A Blob Method for the Aggregation Equation

Motivated by classical vortex blob methods for the Euler equations, we develop a numerical blob method for the aggregation equation. This provides a counterpoint to existing literature on particle methods. By regularizing the velocity field with a mollifier or "blob function", the blob method has a faster rate of convergence and allows a wider range of admissible kernels. In fact, we prove arbitrarily high polynomial rates of convergence to classical solutions, depending on the choice of mollifier. The blob method conserves mass and the corresponding particle system is both energy decreasing for a regularized free energy functional and preserves the Wasserstein gradient flow structure. We consider numerical examples that validate our predicted rate of convergence and illustrate qualitative properties of the method.

math.NA↗