arXiv subjects

Andrea Manzoni

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Manzoni.

67 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

SUIHTER: A new mathematical model for COVID-19. Application to the analysis of the second epidemic outbreak in Italy

The COVID-19 epidemic is the last of a long list of pandemics that have affected humankind in the last century. In this paper, we propose a novel mathematical epidemiological model named SUIHTER from the names of the seven compartments that it comprises: susceptible uninfected individuals (S), undetected (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) infected (U), isolated (I), hospitalized (H), threatened (T), extinct (E), and recovered (R). A suitable parameter calibration that is based on the combined use of least squares method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed with the aim of reproducing the past history of the epidemic in Italy, surfaced in late February and still ongoing to date, and of validating SUIHTER in terms of its predicting capabilities. A distinctive feature of the new model is that it allows a one-to-one calibration strategy between the model compartments and the data that are daily made available from the Italian Civil Protection. The new model is then applied to the analysis of the Italian epidemic with emphasis on the second outbreak emerged in Fall 2020. In particular, we show that the epidemiological model SUIHTER can be suitably used in a predictive manner to perform scenario analysis at national level.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Non intrusive reduced order modeling of parametrized PDEs by kernel POD and neural networks

We propose a nonlinear reduced basis method for the efficient approximation of parametrized partial differential equations (PDEs), exploiting kernel proper orthogonal decomposition (KPOD) for the generation of a reduced-order space and neural networks for the evaluation of the reduced-order approximation. In particular, we use KPOD in place of the more classical POD, on a set of high-fidelity solutions of the problem at hand to extract a reduced basis. This method provides a more accurate approximation of the snapshots' set featuring a lower dimension, while maintaining the same efficiency as POD. A neural network (NN) is then used to find the coefficients of the reduced basis by following a supervised learning paradigm and shown to be effective in learning the map between the time/parameter values and the projection of the high-fidelity snapshots onto the reduced space. In this NN, both the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons vary according to the intrinsic dimension of the differential problem at hand and the size of the reduced space. This adaptively built NN attains good performances in both the learning and the testing phases. Our approach is then tested on two benchmark problems, a one-dimensional wave equation and a two-dimensional nonlinear lid-driven cavity problem. We finally compare the proposed KPOD-NN technique with a POD-NN strategy, showing that KPOD allows a reduction of the number of modes that must be retained to reach a given accuracy in the reduced basis approximation. For this reason, the NN built to find the coefficients of the KPOD expansion is smaller, easier and less computationally demanding to train than the one used in the POD-NN strategy.

math.NA↗

arXiv2021

Online structural health monitoring by model order reduction and deep learning algorithms

Within a structural health monitoring (SHM) framework, we propose a simulation-based classification strategy to move towards online damage localization. The procedure combines parametric Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques and Fully Convolutional Networks (FCNs) to analyze raw vibration measurements recorded on the monitored structure. First, a dataset of possible structural responses under varying operational conditions is built through a physics-based model, allowing for a finite set of predefined damage scenarios. Then, the dataset is used for the offline training of the FCN. Because of the extremely large number of model evaluations required by the dataset construction, MOR techniques are employed to reduce the computational burden. The trained classifier is shown to be able to map unseen vibrational recordings, e.g. collected on-the-fly from sensors placed on the structure, to the actual damage state, thus providing information concerning the presence and also the location of damage. The proposed strategy has been validated by means of two case studies, concerning a 2D portal frame and a 3D portal frame railway bridge; MOR techniques have allowed us to respectively speed up the analyses about 30 and 420 times. For both the case studies, after training the classifier has attained an accuracy greater than 85%.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Multi-fidelity regression using artificial neural networks: efficient approximation of parameter-dependent output quantities

Highly accurate numerical or physical experiments are often time-consuming or expensive to obtain. When time or budget restrictions prohibit the generation of additional data, the amount of available samples may be too limited to provide satisfactory model results. Multi-fidelity methods deal with such problems by incorporating information from other sources, which are ideally well-correlated with the high-fidelity data, but can be obtained at a lower cost. By leveraging correlations between different data sets, multi-fidelity methods often yield superior generalization when compared to models based solely on a small amount of high-fidelity data. In this work, we present the use of artificial neural networks applied to multi-fidelity regression problems. By elaborating a few existing approaches, we propose new neural network architectures for multi-fidelity regression. The introduced models are compared against a traditional multi-fidelity scheme, co-kriging. A collection of artificial benchmarks are presented to measure the performance of the analyzed models. The results show that cross-validation in combination with Bayesian optimization consistently leads to neural network models that outperform the co-kriging scheme. Additionally, we show an application of multi-fidelity regression to an engineering problem. The propagation of a pressure wave into an acoustic horn with parametrized shape and frequency is considered, and the index of reflection intensity is approximated using the multi-fidelity models. A finite element model and a reduced basis model are adopted as the high- and low-fidelity, respectively. It is shown that the multi-fidelity neural network returns outputs that achieve a comparable accuracy to those from the expensive, full-order model, using only very few full-order evaluations combined with a larger amount of inaccurate but cheap evaluations of a reduced order model.

math.NA↗

arXiv2021

Learning High-Order Interactions via Targeted Pattern Search

Logistic Regression (LR) is a widely used statistical method in empirical binary classification studies. However, real-life scenarios oftentimes share complexities that prevent from the use of the as-is LR model, and instead highlight the need to include high-order interactions to capture data variability. This becomes even more challenging because of: (i) datasets growing wider, with more and more variables; (ii) studies being typically conducted in strongly imbalanced settings; (iii) samples going from very large to extremely small; (iv) the need of providing both predictive models and interpretable results. In this paper we present a novel algorithm, Learning high-order Interactions via targeted Pattern Search (LIPS), to select interaction terms of varying order to include in a LR model for an imbalanced binary classification task when input data are categorical. LIPS's rationale stems from the duality between item sets and categorical interactions. The algorithm relies on an interaction learning step based on a well-known frequent item set mining algorithm, and a novel dissimilarity-based interaction selection step that allows the user to specify the number of interactions to be included in the LR model. In addition, we particularize two variants (Scores LIPS and Clusters LIPS), that can address even more specific needs. Through a set of experiments we validate our algorithm and prove its wide applicability to real-life research scenarios, showing that it outperforms a benchmark state-of-the-art algorithm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

POD-DL-ROM: enhancing deep learning-based reduced order models for nonlinear parametrized PDEs by proper orthogonal decomposition

Deep learning-based reduced order models (DL-ROMs) have been recently proposed to overcome common limitations shared by conventional reduced order models (ROMs) - built, e.g., through proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) - when applied to nonlinear time-dependent parametrized partial differential equations (PDEs). These might be related to (i) the need to deal with projections onto high dimensional linear approximating trial manifolds, (ii) expensive hyper-reduction strategies, or (iii) the intrinsic difficulty to handle physical complexity with a linear superimposition of modes. All these aspects are avoided when employing DL-ROMs, which learn in a non-intrusive way both the nonlinear trial manifold and the reduced dynamics, by relying on deep (e.g., feedforward, convolutional, autoencoder) neural networks. Although extremely efficient at testing time, when evaluating the PDE solution for any new testing-parameter instance, DL-ROMs require an expensive training stage, because of the extremely large number of network parameters to be estimated. In this paper we propose a possible way to avoid an expensive training stage of DL-ROMs, by (i) performing a prior dimensionality reduction through POD, and (ii) relying on a multi-fidelity pretraining stage, where different physical models can be efficiently combined. The proposed POD-DL-ROM is tested on several (both scalar and vector, linear and nonlinear) time-dependent parametrized PDEs (such as, e.g., linear advection-diffusion-reaction, nonlinear diffusion-reaction, nonlinear elastodynamics, and Navier-Stokes equations) to show the generality of this approach and its remarkable computational savings.

math.NA↗

arXiv2020

Deep learning-based reduced order models in cardiac electrophysiology

Predicting the electrical behavior of the heart, from the cellular scale to the tissue level, relies on the formulation and numerical approximation of coupled nonlinear dynamical systems. These systems describe the cardiac action potential, that is the polarization/depolarization cycle occurring at every heart beat that models the time evolution of the electrical potential across the cell membrane, as well as a set of ionic variables. Multiple solutions of these systems, corresponding to different model inputs, are required to evaluate outputs of clinical interest, such as activation maps and action potential duration. More importantly, these models feature coherent structures that propagate over time, such as wavefronts. These systems can hardly be reduced to lower dimensional problems by conventional reduced order models (ROMs) such as, e.g., the reduced basis (RB) method. This is primarily due to the low regularity of the solution manifold (with respect to the problem parameters) as well as to the nonlinear nature of the input-output maps that we intend to reconstruct numerically. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper we propose a new, nonlinear approach which exploits deep learning (DL) algorithms to obtain accurate and efficient ROMs, whose dimensionality matches the number of system parameters. Our DL approach combines deep feedforward neural networks (NNs) and convolutional autoencoders (AEs). We show that the proposed DL-ROM framework can efficiently provide solutions to parametrized electrophysiology problems, thus enabling multi-scenario analysis in pathological cases. We investigate three challenging test cases in cardiac electrophysiology and prove that DL-ROM outperforms classical projection-based ROMs.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2020

Fully convolutional networks for structural health monitoring through multivariate time series classification

We propose a novel approach to Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), aiming at the automatic identification of damage-sensitive features from data acquired through pervasive sensor systems. Damage detection and localization are formulated as classification problems, and tackled through Fully Convolutional Networks (FCNs). A supervised training of the proposed network architecture is performed on data extracted from numerical simulations of a physics-based model (playing the role of digital twin of the structure to be monitored) accounting for different damage scenarios. By relying on this simplified model of the structure, several load conditions are considered during the training phase of the FCN, whose architecture has been designed to deal with time series of different length. The training of the neural network is done before the monitoring system starts operating, thus enabling a real time damage classification. The numerical performances of the proposed strategy are assessed on a numerical benchmark case consisting of an eight-story shear building subjected to two load types, one of which modeling random vibrations due to low-energy seismicity. Measurement noise has been added to the responses of the structure to mimic the outputs of a real monitoring system. Extremely good classification capacities are shown: among the nine possible alternatives (represented by the healthy state and by a damage at any floor), damage is correctly classified in up to 95% of cases, thus showing the strong potential of the proposed approach in view of the application to real-life cases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

A comprehensive deep learning-based approach to reduced order modeling of nonlinear time-dependent parametrized PDEs

Traditional reduced order modeling techniques such as the reduced basis (RB) method (relying, e.g., on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)) suffer from severe limitations when dealing with nonlinear time-dependent parametrized PDEs, because of the fundamental assumption of linear superimposition of modes they are based on. For this reason, in the case of problems featuring coherent structures that propagate over time such as transport, wave, or convection-dominated phenomena, the RB method usually yields inefficient reduced order models (ROMs) if one aims at obtaining reduced order approximations sufficiently accurate compared to the high-fidelity, full order model (FOM) solution. To overcome these limitations, in this work, we propose a new nonlinear approach to set reduced order models by exploiting deep learning (DL) algorithms. In the resulting nonlinear ROM, which we refer to as DL-ROM, both the nonlinear trial manifold (corresponding to the set of basis functions in a linear ROM) as well as the nonlinear reduced dynamics (corresponding to the projection stage in a linear ROM) are learned in a non-intrusive way by relying on DL algorithms; the latter are trained on a set of FOM solutions obtained for different parameter values. In this paper, we show how to construct a DL-ROM for both linear and nonlinear time-dependent parametrized PDEs; moreover, we assess its accuracy on test cases featuring different parametrized PDE problems. Numerical results indicate that DL-ROMs whose dimension is equal to the intrinsic dimensionality of the PDE solutions manifold are able to approximate the solution of parametrized PDEs in situations where a huge number of POD modes would be necessary to achieve the same degree of accuracy.

math.NA↗

arXiv2019

Statistical closure modeling for reduced-order models of stationary systems by the ROMES method

This work proposes a technique for constructing a statistical closure model for reduced-order models (ROMs) applied to stationary systems modeled as parameterized systems of algebraic equations. The proposed technique extends the reduced-order-model error surrogates (ROMES) method to closure modeling. The original ROMES method applied Gaussian-process regression to construct a statistical model that maps cheaply computable error indicators (e.g., residual norm, dual-weighted residuals) to a random variable for either (1) the norm of the state error or (2) the error in a scalar-valued quantity of interest. Rather than target these two types of errors, this work proposes to construct a statistical model for the state error itself; it achieves this by constructing statistical models for the generalized coordinates characterizing both the in-plane error (i.e., the error in the trial subspace) and a low-dimensional approximation of the out-of-plane error. The former can be considered a statistical closure model, as it quantifies the error in the ROM generalized coordinates. Because any quantity of interest can be computed as a functional of the state, the proposed approach enables any quantity-of-interest error to be statistically quantified a posteriori, as the state-error model can be propagated through the associated quantity-of-interest functional. Numerical experiments performed on both linear and nonlinear stationary systems illustrate the ability of the technique (1) to improve (expected) ROM prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude, (2) to statistically quantify the error in arbitrary quantities of interest, and (3) to realize a more cost-effective methodology for reducing the error than a ROM-only approach in the case of nonlinear systems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2017

On the inverse problem of detecting cardiac ischemias: theoretical analysis and numerical reconstruction

In this paper we develop theoretical analysis and numerical reconstruction techniques for the solution of an inverse boundary value problem dealing with the nonlinear, time-dependent monodomain equation, which models the evolution of the electric potential in the myocardial tissue. The goal is the detection of a small inhomogeneity $ω_\varepsilon$ (where the coefficients of the equation are altered) located inside a domain $Ω$ starting from observations of the potential on the boundary $\partial Ω$. Such a problem is related to the detection of myocardial ischemic regions, characterized by severely reduced blood perfusion and consequent lack of electric conductivity. In the first part of the paper we provide an asymptotic formula for electric potential perturbations caused by internal conductivity inhomogeneities of low volume fraction, extending the results published in [7] to the case of three-dimensional, parabolic problems. In the second part we implement a reconstruction procedure based on the topological gradient of a suitable cost functional. Numerical results obtained on an idealized three-dimensional left ventricle geometry for different measurement settings assess the feasibility and robustness of the algorithm.

math.AP↗

arXiv2016

A reconstruction algorithm based on topological gradient for an inverse problem related to a semilinear elliptic boundary value problem

In this paper we develop a reconstruction algorithm for the solution of an inverse boundary value problem dealing with a semilinear elliptic partial differential equation of interest in cardiac electrophysiology. The goal is the detection of small inhomogeneities located inside a domain $Ω$, where the coefficients of the equation are altered, starting from observations of the solution of the equation on the boundary $\partial Ω$. Exploiting theoretical results recently achieved in [11], we implement a reconstruction procedure based on the computation of the topological gradient of a suitable cost functional. Numerical results obtained for several test cases finally assess the feasibility and the accuracy of the proposed technique.

math.AP↗

arXiv2014

On a semilinear elliptic boundary value problem arising in cardiac electrophysiology

In this paper we provide a representation formula for boundary voltage perturbations caused by internal conductivity inhomogeneities of low volume fraction in a simplified {\em monodomain model} describing the electric activity of the heart. We derive such a result in the case of a nonlinear problem. Our long-term goal is the solution of the inverse problem related to the detection of regions affected by heart ischemic disease, whose position and size are unknown. We model the presence of ischemic regions in the form of small inhomogeneities. This leads to the study of a boundary value problem for a semilinear elliptic equation. We first analyze the well-posedness of the problem establishing some key energy estimates. These allow us to derive rigorously an asymptotic formula of the boundary potential perturbation due to the presence of the inhomogeneities, following an approach similar to the one introduced by Capdeboscq and Vogelius in \cite{capvoge} in the case of the linear conductivity equation. Finally, we propose some ideas of the reconstruction procedure that might be used to detect the inhomogeneities.

math.AP↗