arXiv subjects

Andrea Mascaretti

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Mascaretti.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Graph-dependent shrinkage priors for Bayesian trend filtering

Many common data dependencies can be characterized by graphs: time series data are sequential (chain graph), images appear as pixels (lattice graph), areal data are defined by neighboring units (spatial adjacency graph), etc. Graph trend filtering seeks to smooth and predict such data. However, classical trend filtering only incorporates the graph for estimation of the trend, which limits its adaptivity, and is brittle in the presence of missing data. Further, it lacks uncertainty quantification and faces certain computing challenges. We address these limitations with a comprehensive Bayesian framework for (graph-) dependent data. Our approach leverages the graph at three critical junctures: 1) the trend, to enable smoothing, imputation, and prediction; 2) the local shrinkage, to enhance adaptivity and precision; and 3) the MCMC sampling algorithm, to deliver scalable posterior (predictive) inference via sparse and banded operations. For the proposed graph-dependent shrinkage priors, we study the local concentration and adaptivity properties and establish conditions for posterior propriety. Simulation studies demonstrate that, relative to state-of-the-art frequentist and Bayesian alternatives, this framework provides more accurate point estimates, more precise interval estimates, and highly competitive computing. We apply our methods for spatio-temporal modeling and forecasting of local area unemployment data for every county in the continental U.S. during the 2020 COVID-19 unemployment shock.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

A quantitative analysis of semantic information in deep representations of text and images

It was recently observed that the representations of different models that process identical or semantically related inputs tend to align. We analyze this phenomenon using the Information Imbalance, an asymmetric rank-based measure that quantifies the capability of a representation to predict another, providing a proxy of the cross-entropy which can be computed efficiently in high-dimensional spaces. By measuring the Information Imbalance between representations generated by DeepSeek-V3 processing translations, we find that semantic information is spread across many tokens, and that semantic predictability is strongest in a set of central layers of the network, robust across six language pairs. We measure clear information asymmetries: English representations are systematically more predictive than those of other languages, and DeepSeek-V3 representations are more predictive of those in a smaller model such as Llama3-8b than the opposite. In the visual domain, we observe that semantic information concentrates in middle layers for autoregressive models and in final layers for encoder models, and these same layers yield the strongest cross-modal predictability with textual representations of image captions. Our results support the hypothesis of semantic convergence across languages, modalities, and architectures, while showing that directed predictability between representations varies strongly with layer-depth, model scale, and language.

cs.CL↗