arXiv subjects

Andrea Mazzon

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Mazzon.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Optimal stopping and divestment timing under scenario ambiguity and learning

Aiming to analyze the impact of environmental transition on the value of assets and on asset stranding, we study optimal stopping and divestment timing decisions for an economic agent whose future revenues depend on the realization of a scenario from a given set of possible futures. Since the future scenario is unknown and the probabilities of individual prospective scenarios are ambiguous, we adopt the smooth model of decision making under ambiguity aversion of Klibanoff et al (2005), framing the optimal divestment decision as an optimal stopping problem with learning under ambiguity aversion. We then prove a minimax result reducing this problem to a series of standard optimal stopping problems with learning. The theory is illustrated with two examples: the problem of optimally selling a stock with ambiguous drift, and the problem of optimal divestment from a coal-fired power plant under transition scenario ambiguity.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2023

Multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion in the G-setting

In this paper we introduce a definition of a multi-dimensional fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index $H \in (0, 1)$ under volatility uncertainty (in short G-fBm). We study the properties of such a process and provide first results about stochastic calculus with respect to a fractional G-Brownian motion for a Hurst index $H >\frac{1}{2}$ .

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Supplement Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching

This is a supplement to the paper "Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching". The supplement is organized as follows. First, we prove Theorem 3.13 in [1] which provides the existence of the dynamical system D introduced in Definition 3.6 in [1]. Second, we show some properties of D which are summarized in Theorem 3.14 in [1]. In the following, we only state the basic setting and refer to [1] for definitions.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

Generalized Feynman-Kac Formula under volatility uncertainty

In this paper we provide a generalization of a Feynmac-Kac formula under volatility uncertainty in presence of a linear term in the PDE due to discounting. We state our result under different hypothesis with respect to the derivation given by Hu, Ji, Peng and Song (Comparison theorem, Feynman-Kac formula and Girsanov transformation for BSDEs driven by G-Brownian motion, Stochastic Processes and their Application, 124 (2)), where the Lipschitz continuity of some functionals is assumed which is not necessarily satisfied in our setting. In particular, we show that the $G$-conditional expectation of a discounted payoff is a viscosity solution of a nonlinear PDE. In applications, this permits to calculate such a sublinear expectation in a computationally efficient way.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Liquidity based modeling of asset price bubbles via random matching

In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the Markov conditionally independent dynamic directed random matching of [13] to a stochastic setting to include stochastic exogenous factors in the model. We derive conditions guaranteeing that the financial market model is arbitrage-free and present some numerical simulation illustrating our approach.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

Reduced-form framework for multiple ordered default times under model uncertainty

In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional operator with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures in presence of multiple ordered default times. In this way we generalize the results of [5], where a reduced-form framework under model uncertainty for a single default time is developed. Moreover, we use this operator for the valuation of credit portfolio derivatives under model uncertainty.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning

In this paper we employ deep learning techniques to detect financial asset bubbles by using observed call option prices. The proposed algorithm is widely applicable and model-independent. We test the accuracy of our methodology in numerical experiments within a wide range of models and apply it to market data of tech stocks in order to assess if asset price bubbles are present. Under a given condition on the pricing of call options under asset price bubbles, we are able to provide a theoretical foundation of our approach for positive and continuous stochastic asset price processes. When such a condition is not satisfied, we focus on local volatility models. To this purpose, we give a new necessary and sufficient condition for a process with time-dependent local volatility function to be a strict local martingale.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

On a geometric method for the identifiability of forms

We introduce a new criterion which tests if a given decomposition of a given ternary form $T$ of even degree is unique. The criterion is based on the analysis of the Hilbert function of the projective set of points $Z$ associated to the decomposition, and on the Terracini's Lemma which describes tangent spaces to secant varieties. The criterion works in a range for the length of the decomposition which is equivalent to the range in which the reshaped Kruskal's criterion (see [1]) works. Our criterion determines an algorithm for the identifiability of $T$ which is sensibly faster than algorithms based on the reshaped Kruskal's criterion, especially when the set of points $Z$ is not in general position.

math.AG↗

arXiv2020

Optional projection under equivalent local martingale measures

Motivation for this paper is to understand the impact of information on asset price bubbles and perceived arbitrage opportunities. This boils down to study optional projections of $\mathbb{G}$-adapted strict local martingales into a smaller filtration $\mathbb{F}$ under equivalent martingale measures. We give some general results as well as analyze in details two specific examples given by the inverse three dimensional Bessel process and a class of stochastic volatility models.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2019

Identifiability for a class of symmetric tensors

We use methods of algebraic geometry to find new, effective methods for detecting the identifiability of symmetric tensors. In particular, for ternary symmetric tensors T of degree 7, we use the analysis of the Hilbert function of a finite projective set, and the Cayley-Bacharach property, to prove that, when the Kruskal's rank of a decomposition of T are maximal (a condition which holds outside a Zariski closed set of measure 0), then the tensor T is identifiable, i.e. the decomposition is unique, even if the rank lies beyond the range of application of both the Kruskal's and the reshaped Kruskal's criteria.

math.AG↗

arXiv2018

Financial asset bubbles in banking networks

We consider a banking network represented by a system of stochastic differential equations coupled by their drift. We assume a core-periphery structure, and that the banks in the core hold a bubbly asset. The banks in the periphery have not direct access to the bubble, but can take initially advantage from its increase by investing on the banks in the core. Investments are modeled by the weight of the links, which is a function of the robustness of the banks. In this way, a preferential attachment mechanism towards the core takes place during the growth of the bubble. We then investigate how the bubble distort the shape of the network, both for finite and infinitely large systems, assuming a non vanishing impact of the core on the periphery. Due to the influence of the bubble, the banks are no longer independent, and the law of large numbers cannot be directly applied at the limit. This results in a term in the drift of the diffusions which does not average out, and that increases systemic risk at the moment of the burst. We test this feature of the model by numerical simulations.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Liquidity induced asset bubbles via flows of ELMMs

We consider a constructive model for asset price bubbles, where the market price $W$ is endogenously determined by the trading activity on the market and the fundamental price $W^F$ is exogenously given, as in the work of Jarrow, Protter and Roch (2012). To justify $W^F$ from a fundamental point of view, we embed this constructive approach in the martingale theory of bubbles, see Jarrow, Protter and Shimbo (2010) and Biagini, Föllmer and Nedelcu (2014), by showing the existence of a flow of equivalent martingale measures for $W$, under which $W^F$ equals the expectation of the discounted future cash flow. As an application, we study bubble formation and evolution in a financial network.

q-fin.MF↗