arXiv subjects

Andrea Meilán-Vila

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Meilán-Vila.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Analyzing directional errors in spatial orientation using nonparametric circular regression with mixed covariates

Spatial orientation is a fundamental cognitive skill that relies on sensory information to update perceived direction. Understanding how sensory conditions influence directional accuracy is important for both cognitive science and the design of assistive technologies. We analyze experimental data in which blind, low-vision, and sighted participants performed spatial updating tasks under five sensory conditions, with signed angular error as the response. To model these data, we propose a nonparametric circular regression framework that accommodates both continuous and categorical predictors via a product-kernel estimator. Bandwidth selection is crucial in this setting, yet developing practical data-driven methods remains challenging. We derive asymptotic bias and variance expressions for the estimator, though these results do not directly lead to a feasible plug-in bandwidth selector. To address this, we develop a bootstrap bandwidth selection criterion tailored to the cosine loss and compare it with cross-validation and rule-of-thumb approaches in simulation studies. Applied to the spatial updating data, the proposed framework reveals nonlinear, condition-specific patterns and quantifies uncertainty via simultaneous bootstrap confidence bands. Across the scenarios considered, the proposed bootstrap selector achieves a favorable bias-variance trade-off and yields stable inference relative to the competing methods. An implementation is available in the R package circMixedReg.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

On the turbulent wake of the actuated fluidic pinball: dynamics, bifurcations and control authority

We present the first comprehensive experimental and numerical study featuring the turbulent wake of the fluidic pinball for a large actuation range. The fluidic pinball is a cluster of three equal circular cylinders centered on the vertices of an equilateral triangle, pointing upstream in uniform flow. This configuration has become a canonical benchmark for control-oriented reduced-order modeling, for nonlinear control design and for a large kaleidoscope of drag reduction mechanisms. While the literature covers well the laminar two-dimensional Reynolds number regime, we focus on unexplored terra incognita: experiments of the symmetrically actuated turbulent regime at a Reynolds number of Re=9100. In other words, the upstream cylinder is kept stationary, while the two downstream cylinders rotate with equal and opposite angular velocities. A large range of base-bleeding and boat-tailing actuation parameters is investigated with time-resolved particle image velocimetry and aerodynamic force measurement with a companion Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulation. Our results indicate that the turbulent wake of the fluidic pinball can be approximated by a three-dimensional actuation manifold comprising two inverse pitchfork bifurcations. In the boat-tailing limit, a reduced control authority with a new low-frequency shedding state is observed.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2026

Blessing of dimensionality in cross-validated bandwidth selection on the sphere

We study the asymptotic behavior of least-squares cross-validation bandwidth selection in kernel density estimation on the $d$-dimensional hypersphere, $d\geq 1$. We show that the exact rate of convergence with respect to the optimal bandwidth minimizing the mean integrated squared error, shown to exist under mild non-uniformity conditions, is $n^{-d/(2d+8)}$, thus approaching the $n^{-1/2}$ parametric rate as $d$ grows. This ``blessing of dimensionality'' in bandwidth selection offers theoretical support for utilizing the conceptually simpler cross-validation selector over plug-in techniques for larger dimensions $d$. We compare this result for bandwidth estimation on the $d$-dimensional Euclidean space through explicit expressions for the asymptotic variance functionals. Numerical experiments corroborate the speed of this convergence in an array of scenarios and dimensions, precisely illustrating the tipping dimension where cross-validation outperforms plug-in approaches.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Latent-Space Non-Linear Model Predictive Control for Partially-Observable Systems

This work presents a scalable control framework based on nonlinear Model Predictive Control for high-dimensional dynamical systems. The proposed approach addresses the key challenges of model scalability and partial observability by integrating data-driven reduced order modelling, control in a latent space, and state estimation within a unified formulation. A predictive model is constructed via Operator Inference on a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition basis, yielding a compact latent representation that captures the dominant system dynamics. State estimation is achieved through an Unscented Kalman Filter, which reconstructs the latent space from sparse and noisy measurements, enabling closed-loop control. The input signals are computed directly in the reduced-order latent space, improving computational efficiency with negligible impact on predictive capability. The methodology is validated on the one- and two-dimensional Kuramoto--Sivashinsky equations, serving as benchmarks for chaotic and spatially-extended systems. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves accurate stabilisation. Overall, the framework provides a practical approach for nonlinear control of complex, high-dimensional systems where full-state measurements are often inaccessible or infeasible.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2025

Sensor optimization for urban wind estimation with cluster-based probabilistic framework

We propose a physics-informed machine-learned framework for sensor-based flow estimation for drone trajectories in complex urban terrain. The input is a rich set of flow simulations at many wind conditions. The outputs are velocity and uncertainty estimates for a target domain and subsequent sensor optimization for minimal uncertainty. The framework has three innovations compared to traditional flow estimators. First, the algorithm scales proportionally to the domain complexity, making it suitable for flows that are too complex for any monolithic reduced-order representation. Second, the framework extrapolates beyond the training data, e.g., smaller and larger wind velocities. Last, and perhaps most importantly, the sensor location is a free input, significantly extending the vast majority of the literature. The key enablers are (1) a Reynolds number-based scaling of the flow variables, (2) a physics-based domain decomposition, (3) a cluster-based flow representation for each subdomain, (4) an information entropy correlating the subdomains, and (5) a multi-variate probability function relating sensor input and targeted velocity estimates. This framework is demonstrated using drone flight paths through a three-building cluster as a simple example. We anticipate adaptations and applications for estimating complete cities and incorporating weather input.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Self-tuning model predictive control for wake flows

This study presents a noise-robust closed-loop control strategy for wake flows employing model predictive control. The proposed control framework involves the autonomous offline selection of hyperparameters, eliminating the need for user interaction. To this purpose, Bayesian optimisation maximises the control performance, adapting to external disturbances, plant model inaccuracies and actuation constraints. The noise robustness of the control is achieved through sensor data smoothing based on local polynomial regression. The plant model can be identified through either theoretical formulation or using existing data-driven techniques. In this work we leverage the latter approach, which requires minimal user intervention. The self-tuned control strategy is applied to the control of the wake of the fluidic pinball, with the plant model based solely on aerodynamic force measurements. The closed-loop actuation results in two distinct control mechanisms: boat tailing for drag reduction and stagnation point control for lift stabilization. The control strategy proves to be highly effective even in realistic noise scenarios, despite relying on a plant model based on a reduced number of sensors.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2025

Actuation manifold from snapshot data

We propose a data-driven methodology to learn a low-dimensional manifold of controlled flows. The starting point is resolving snapshot flow data for a representative ensemble of actuations. Key enablers for the actuation manifold are isometric mapping as encoder and a combination of a neural network and a k-nearest-neighbour interpolation as decoder. This methodology is tested for the fluidic pinball, a cluster of three parallel cylinders perpendicular to the oncoming uniform flow. The centres of these cylinders are the vertices of an equilateral triangle pointing upstream. The flow is manipulated by constant rotation of the cylinders, i.e. described by three actuation parameters. The Reynolds number based on a cylinder diameter is chosen to be 30. The unforced flow yields statistically symmetric periodic shedding represented by a one-dimensional limit cycle. The proposed methodology yields a five-dimensional manifold describing a wide range of dynamics with small representation error. Interestingly, the manifold coordinates automatically unveil physically meaningful parameters. Two of them describe the downstream periodic vortex shedding. The other three describe the near-field actuation, i.e. the strength of boat-tailing, the Magnus effect and forward stagnation point. The manifold is shown to be a key enabler for control-oriented flow estimation.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2024

A note on the geodesic normal distribution on the sphere

This paper presents an alternative formulation of the geodesic normal distribution on the sphere, building on the work of Hauberg (2018). While the isotropic version of this distribution is naturally defined on the sphere, the anisotropic version requires projecting points from the hypersphere onto the tangent space. In contrast, our approach removes the dependence on the tangent space and defines the geodesic normal distribution directly on the sphere. Moreover, we demonstrate that the density contours of this distribution are exactly ellipses on the sphere, providing intriguing alternative characterizations for describing this locus of points.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Machine-learned flow estimation with sparse data -- exemplified for the rooftop of a UAV vertiport

We propose a physics-informed data-driven framework for urban wind estimation. This framework validates and incorporates the Reynolds number independence for flows under various working conditions, thus allowing the extrapolation for wind conditions far beyond the training data. Another key enabler is a machine-learned non-dimensionalized manifold from snapshot data. The velocity field is modeled using a double encoder-decoder approach. The first encoder normalizes data using the oncoming wind speed, while the second encoder projects this normalized data onto the isometric feature mapping manifold. The decoders reverse this process, with $k$-nearest neighbor performing the first decoding and the second undoing the normalization. The manifold is coarse-grained by clustering to reduce the computational load for de- and encoding. The sensor-based flow estimation is based on the estimate of the oncoming wind speed and a mapping from sensor signal to the manifold latent variables. The proposed machine-learned flow estimation framework is exemplified for the flow above an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle vertiport. The wind estimation is shown to generalize well for rare wind conditions, not included in the original database.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2024

Kernel density estimation with polyspherical data and its applications

A kernel density estimator for data on the polysphere $\mathbb{S}^{d_1}\times\cdots\times\mathbb{S}^{d_r}$, with $r,d_1,\ldots,d_r\geq 1$, is presented in this paper. We derive the main asymptotic properties of the estimator, including mean square error, normality, and optimal bandwidths. We address the kernel theory of the estimator beyond the von Mises-Fisher kernel, introducing new kernels that are more efficient and investigating normalizing constants, moments, and sampling methods thereof. Plug-in and cross-validated bandwidth selectors are also obtained. As a spin-off of the kernel density estimator, we propose a nonparametric $k$-sample test based on the Jensen-Shannon divergence. Numerical experiments illuminate the asymptotic theory of the kernel density estimator and demonstrate the superior performance of the $k$-sample test with respect to parametric alternatives in certain scenarios. Our smoothing methodology is applied to the analysis of the morphology of a sample of hippocampi of infants embedded on the high-dimensional polysphere $(\mathbb{S}^2)^{168}$ via skeletal representations ($s$-reps).

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

A goodness-of-fit test for regression models with spatially correlated errors

The problem of assessing a parametric regression model in the presence of spatial correlation is addressed in this work. For that purpose, a goodness-of-fit test based on a $L_2$-distance comparing a parametric and a nonparametric regression estimators is proposed. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic, both under the null hypothesis and under local alternatives, are derived. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure is designed to calibrate the test in practice. Finite sample performance of the test is analyzed through a simulation study, and its applicability is illustrated using a real data example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric estimation of circular trend surfaces with application to wave directions

In oceanography, modeling wave fields requires the use of statistical tools capable of handling the circular nature of the {data measurements}. An important issue in ocean wave analysis is the study of height and direction waves, being direction values recorded as angles or, equivalently, as points on a unit circle. Hence, reconstruction of a wave direction field on the sea surface can be approached by the use of a linear-circular regression model, viewing wave directions as a realization of a circular spatial process whose trend should be estimated. In this paper, we consider a spatial regression model with a circular response and several real-valued predictors. Nonparametric estimators of the circular trend surface are proposed, accounting for the (unknown) spatial correlation. Some asymptotic results about these estimators as well as some guidelines for their practical implementation are also given. The performance of the proposed estimators is investigated in a simulation study. An application to wave directions in the Adriatic Sea is provided for illustration.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

A flexible functional-circular regression model for analyzing temperature curves

Changes on temperature patterns, on a local scale, are perceived by individuals as the most direct indicators of global warming and climate change. As a specific example, for an Atlantic climate location, spring and fall seasons should present a mild transition between winter and summer, and summer and winter, respectively. By observing daily temperature curves along time, being each curve attached to a certain calendar day, a regression model for these variables (temperature curve as covariate and calendar day as response) would be useful for modeling their relation for a certain period. In addition, temperature changes could be assessed by prediction and observation comparisons in the long run. Such a model is presented and studied in this work, considering a nonparametric Nadaraya-Watson-type estimator for functional covariate and circular response. The asymptotic bias and variance of this estimator, as well as its asymptotic distribution are derived. Its finite sample performance is evaluated in a simulation study and the proposal is applied to investigate a real-data set concerning temperature curves.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Goodness-of-fit tests for parametric regression models with circular response

Testing procedures for assessing a parametric regression model with circular response and $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued covariate are proposed and analyzed in this work both for independent and for spatially correlated data. The test statistics are based on a circular distance comparing a (non-smoothed or smoothed) parametric circular estimator and a nonparametric one. Properly designed bootstrap procedures for calibrating the tests in practice are also presented. Finite sample performance of the tests in different scenarios with independent and spatially correlated samples, is analyzed by simulations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Nonparametric multivariate regression estimation for circular responses

Nonparametric estimators of a regression function with circular response and Rd-valued predictor are considered in this work. Local polynomial type estimators are proposed and studied. Expressions for their asymptotic biases and variances are derived, and some guidelines to select asymptotically local optimal bandwidth matrices are also given. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is assessed through simulations and their performance is also illustrated with a real data set.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

A computational validation for nonparametric assessment of spatial trends

The analysis of continuously spatially varying processes usually considers two sources of variation, namely, the large-scale variation collected by the trend of the process, and the small-scale variation. Parametric trend models on latitude and longitude are easy to fit and to interpret. However, the use of simple parametric models for characterizing spatially varying processes may lead to misspecification problems if the model is not appropriate. Recently, Meilán-Vila et al. (2019) proposed a goodness-of-fit test based on an L2-distance for assessing a parametric trend model with correlated errors, under random design, comparing a parametric and a nonparametric trend estimators. The present work aims to provide a detailed computational analysis of the behavior of this approach using different bootstrap algorithms for calibration, under a fixed-design geostatistical framework. Asymptotic results for the test are provided and an extensive simulation study, considering complexities that usually arise in geostatistics, is carried out to illustrate the performance of the proposal.

stat.ME↗