arXiv subjects

Andrea Milani

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Milani.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Orbit Determination with the two-body Integrals

We investigate a method to compute a finite set of preliminary orbits for solar system bodies using the first integrals of the Kepler problem. This method is thought for the applications to the modern sets of astrometric observations, where often the information contained in the observations allows only to compute, by interpolation, two angular positions of the observed body and their time derivatives at a given epoch; we call this set of data attributable. Given two attributables of the same body at two different epochs we can use the energy and angular momentum integrals of the two-body problem to write a system of polynomial equations for the topocentric distance and the radial velocity at the two epochs. We define two different algorithms for the computation of the solutions, based on different ways to perform elimination of variables and obtain a univariate polynomial. Moreover we use the redundancy of the data to test the hypothesis that two attributables belong to the same body (linkage problem). It is also possible to compute a covariance matrix, describing the uncertainty of the preliminary orbits which results from the observation error statistics. The performance of this method has been investigated by using a large set of simulated observations of the Pan-STARRS project.

math-ph↗

arXiv2009

Long-term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36

The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10E-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid,which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2007

Orbit Determination with Topocentric Correction: Algorithms for the Next Generation Surveys

Given a set of astrometric observations of the same object, the problem of orbit determination is to compute the orbit and to assess its uncertainty and reliability. For the next generation surveys, with much larger number density of observed objects, new algorithms or substantial revisions of the classical ones are needed. The problem has three main steps, preliminary orbit, least squares orbit, and quality control. The classical theory of preliminary orbits was incomplete: the consequences of the topocentric correction had not been fully studied. We show that it is possible to account for this correction, possibly with an increase in the number of preliminary solutions, without impairing the overall orbit determination performance. We have developed modified least squares orbit determination algorithms that can be used to improve the reliability of the procedure. We have tested the complete procedure on two simulations with number densities comparable to that expected from the next generation surveys such as Pan-STARRS and LSST. To control the problem of false identifications we have introduced a quality control on the fit residuals based on an array of metrics and a procedure to remove duplications and contradictions in the output. The results confirm that large sets of discoveries can be obtained with good quality orbits and very high success rate losing only 0.6 to 1.3% of objects and a false identification rate in the range 0.02 to 0.06%.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2007

Efficient intra- and inter-night linking of asteroid detections using kd-trees

The Panoramic Survey Telescope And Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) under development at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy is creating the first fully automated end-to-end Moving Object Processing System (MOPS) in the world. It will be capable of identifying detections of moving objects in our solar system and linking those detections within and between nights, attributing those detections to known objects, calculating initial and differentially-corrected orbits for linked detections, precovering detections when they exist, and orbit identification. Here we describe new kd-tree and variable-tree algorithms that allow fast, efficient, scalable linking of intra and inter-night detections. Using a pseudo-realistic simulation of the Pan-STARRS survey strategy incorporating weather, astrometric accuracy and false detections we have achieved nearly 100% efficiency and accuracy for intra-night linking and nearly 100% efficiency for inter-night linking within a lunation. At realistic sky-plane densities for both real and false detections the intra-night linking of detections into `tracks' currently has an accuracy of 0.3%. Successful tests of the MOPS on real source detections from the Spacewatch asteroid survey indicate that the MOPS is capable of identifying asteroids in real data.

astro-ph↗