arXiv subjects

Andrea Vismara

Publications and source records attributed to Andrea Vismara.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Debt relief and remittances can offset foreign aid cuts for most countries, but some remain locked out

In 2025, bilateral foreign aid was reduced by 23%, affecting more than 130 aid recipient countries. We assess whether debt service relief or remittance increases can match the USD 26 billion in aid losses. Using a network-shock model calibrated to bilateral donors' individual cuts, we estimate recipient-country aid losses and evaluate compensation feasibility in terms of annual debt service payments that would need to be cancelled and remittance capacity (the headroom between flows and a theoretical maximum in which every working-age migrant sends funds) mobilised to financially offset them. We find that 18% external debt service relief and 10% of remittance mobilisation could compensate half of the affected countries. However, some countries remain locked out of either or both mechanisms. A fundamental trade-off in the global financial architecture emerged for large aid-cut losers: countries positioned to benefit from debt service relief lack large international diaspora networks (limiting their capacity to increase remittances), while those with established diaspora channels face structural exclusion of traditional debt markets, rendering debt service relief ineffective. These insights introduce nuance in how alternative finance sources can replace foreign aid.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Comorbidity Network Analysis Reveals Diagnostic Disparities Between Austrian and Non-Austrian Inpatients: A Population-Wide Cohort Study

International migrants face well-documented barriers to healthcare access, yet the extent to which these barriers shape patterns of disease co-occurrence remains poorly understood. Drawing on a nationwide dataset of approximately 13 million hospital admissions from around 4 million individuals in Austria (2015-2019), we constructed and compared comorbidity networks between Austrian nationals and non-Austrian migrants, matched 1:1 by age, sex, and time of first hospital admission (272,779 per group). Following matching, metabolic and cardiovascular diagnoses, including type 2 diabetes and myocardial infarction, were more common among non-Austrians, while depression was more common among Austrians. Comorbidity network analysis showed that among all disease pairs that differed significantly between groups, 70% showed stronger co-occurrence in Austrian patients and 30% in non-Austrian patients. Distinct sex-specific patterns appeared: Austrian males showed stronger associations between alcohol use disorder and mental health diagnoses, whereas non-Austrian males more frequently presented with acute somatic conditions. Among non-Austrian women, a pronounced cluster of recurrent depression, somatoform disorders, and dorsalgia was observed. We interpret the disproportionately fewer comorbidity links observed in non-Austrians not as evidence of lower disease burden, but as a likely reflection of structural access barriers, including language differences, cultural factors, and crisis-oriented admission patterns, that prevent comprehensive diagnostic assessment, though a contribution from the healthy migrant effect cannot be excluded. These findings stress the need for culturally aware care strategies and earlier identification of high-risk multimorbidity profiles in migrant populations.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2026

Who burdens the welfare state? Migration and ageing in housing, education, and healthcare demand

Political discourse attributes the pressure on European welfare systems to foreign nationals. Yet projections of service demand rarely disaggregate service demand by citizenship status. We develop a structural demographic model and project healthcare, education, and housing demand in Austria through 2050, disaggregated by citizenship status and regions across migration scenarios. We find that migration, ageing, and fertility shape each sector differently. In healthcare, the ageing of Austrian nationals contributes 4.7 times more to demand growth than immigration, with the most acute pressures in rural, low-migration regions. In housing, migration accounts for the entire net growth in demand, concentrated in metropolitan hubs. In education, aggregate demand contracts regardless of migration assumptions, whereas future needs are driven more by the births of foreigners in Austria than by new arrivals. Foreign nationals consume services in proportion to their demographic weight, with deviations explained by age structure rather than over-utilisation. These results show that the drivers of service demand are sector-specific: migration restrictions could ease housing pressure, but would not address ageing-driven healthcare demand and may accelerate contraction in the education system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Migrants as First Responders: A Global Estimate of Disaster-Driven Remittances

International remittances represent a vital source of disaster adaptation finance for households around the world, yet their responsiveness to environmental disasters remains poorly quantified. We reveal a previously unmeasured global macro-financial system of international migrant diasporas remittances response to the occurrence of disasters in the country of origin. We do so by developing a structural model simulating individual remittance decisions, calibrated with global disaster records and bilateral monthly remittances flow data from the period 2010-2019. Our analysis reveals that approximately 332 billion USD (5.46\% of total remittances) were mobilized specifically in response to earthquakes, floods, storms, and droughts over the decade. Earthquakes triggered the largest remittance responses per person affected, while droughts elicited the smallest. The model also identifies significant variation in diaspora groups' capacity to activate financial support. These findings establish remittances as a substantial yet limited form of disaster finance, highlighting their importance and limitations in building resilience against future environmental shocks.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Arriving Young, Leaving Old(er): Age-Structured International Migration on Subnational Scale in Austria

Modelling migration is complicated, as people move for many reasons. Some leave their country for the first time, others return to places they once called home, or move on to new destinations. However, most models focus only on who arrives, missing the full picture of how migrant populations evolve. We introduce a model for diaspora flows that estimates both arrivals and exits using daily migration flow rates, disaggregated by age and nationality. Drawing on high-resolution administrative data from Austria covering over 1.8 million foreign nationals, the model allocates these movements across more than 2,000 municipalities based on the size of local diaspora communities. We find that exits are not exceptions but a consistent and predictable feature across all groups. Migration rejuvenates Austria's population, as both arriving and departing migrants are younger than the average resident. This effect has distinct age-geography patterns: younger migrants are drawn to cities, while older migrants are more evenly distributed in the country. By capturing both arrivals and exits simultaneously, our approach provides a more comprehensive and interpretable picture of migration dynamics, how populations change over time, and how they are influenced by space, age, and national origins.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Refugees' path to legal stability is long and systematically unequal

Legal systems shape not only the recognition of migrants and refugees but also the pace and stability of their integration. Refugees often shift between multiple legal classifications, a process we refer to as the "legal journey". This journey is frequently prolonged and uncertain. Using a network-based approach, we analyze legal transitions for over 350,000 migrants in Austria (2022 to 2024). Refugees face highly unequal pathways to stability, ranging from two months for Ukrainians to nine months for Syrians and 20 months for Afghans. Women, especially from these regions, are more likely to gain protection; Afghan men wait up to 30 months on average. We also find that those who cross the border without going through official border controls face higher exit rates and lower chances of securing stable status. We show that legal integration is not a uniform process, but one structured by institutional design, procedural entry points, and unequal timelines.

physics.soc-ph↗