arXiv subjects

Andreas Kaltenbrunner

Publications and source records attributed to Andreas Kaltenbrunner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware Estimation of Mis/Disinformation Prevalence on Social Media

Estimation of mis/disinformation prevalence in social media is crucial for designing mitigation strategies to limit its impact. Yet, such estimations are subject to several uncertainties that are rarely quantified jointly. In this study, we present a methodological contribution in which confidence intervals were used to quantify uncertainties related to mis/disinformation prevalence. The analysis draws on a multi-platform, multilingual dataset annotated by professional fact-checkers. Data were collected between March and April 2025 from Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, TikTok, X/Twitter, and YouTube across four EU Member States (France, Poland, Slovakia, and Spain). We account for different causes of uncertainty: (i) sample uncertainty, (ii) annotation uncertainty arising from human disagreement and misclassification, and (iii) data retrieval uncertainty induced by keyword-based data collection. First, we estimate the uncertainty arising from the different causes separately using confidence intervals, simulation-based methods, and bootstrapping. Finally, we combined multinomial simulations of annotator behaviour with keyword and post-resampling to capture the joint impact of measurement uncertainty on mis/disinformation prevalence estimates. The proposed methodological approach highlights the importance of uncertainty-aware estimation of mis/disinformation prevalence for robust analysis. The empirical results of this study show that keyword-based data retrieval can exceed baseline variability, leading to wider confidence intervals around prevalence estimates.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

The Personality Trap: How LLMs Embed Bias When Generating Human-Like Personas

This paper examines biases in large language models (LLMs) when generating synthetic populations from responses to personality questionnaires. Using five LLMs, we first assess the representativeness and potential biases in the sociodemographic attributes of the generated personas, as well as their alignment with the intended personality traits. While LLMs successfully reproduce known correlations between personality and sociodemographic variables, all models exhibit pronounced WEIRD (western, educated, industrialized, rich and democratic) biases, favoring young, educated, white, heterosexual, Western individuals with centrist or progressive political views and secular or Christian beliefs. In a second analysis, we manipulate input traits to maximize Neuroticism and Psychoticism scores. Notably, when Psychoticism is maximized, several models produce an overrepresentation of non-binary and LGBTQ+ identities, raising concerns about stereotyping and the potential pathologization of marginalized groups. Our findings highlight both the potential and the risks of using LLMs to generate psychologically grounded synthetic populations.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Language-Agnostic Modeling of Source Reliability on Wikipedia

Over the last few years, verifying the credibility of information sources has become a fundamental need to combat disinformation. Here, we present a language-agnostic model designed to assess the reliability of web domains as sources in references across multiple language editions of Wikipedia. Utilizing editing activity data, the model evaluates domain reliability within different articles of varying controversiality, such as Climate Change, COVID-19, History, Media, and Biology topics. Crafting features that express domain usage across articles, the model effectively predicts domain reliability, achieving an F1 Macro score of approximately 0.80 for English and other high-resource languages. For mid-resource languages, we achieve 0.65, while the performance of low-resource languages varies. In all cases, the time the domain remains present in the articles (which we dub as permanence) is one of the most predictive features. We highlight the challenge of maintaining consistent model performance across languages of varying resource levels and demonstrate that adapting models from higher-resource languages can improve performance. We believe these findings can assist Wikipedia editors in their ongoing efforts to verify citations and may offer useful insights for other user-generated content communities.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Rewarding Engagement and Personalization in Popularity-Based Rankings Amplifies Extremism and Polarization

Despite extensive research, the mechanisms through which online platforms shape extremism and polarization remain poorly understood. We identify and test a mechanism, grounded in empirical evidence, that explains how ranking algorithms can amplify both phenomena. This mechanism is based on well-documented assumptions: (i) users exhibit position bias and tend to prefer items displayed higher in the ranking, (ii) users prefer like-minded content, (iii) users with more extreme views are more likely to engage actively, and (iv) ranking algorithms are popularity-based, assigning higher positions to items that attract more clicks. Under these conditions, when platforms additionally reward active engagement and implement personalized rankings, users are inevitably driven toward more extremist and polarized news consumption. We formalize this mechanism in a dynamical model, which we evaluate by means of simulations and interactive experiments with hundreds of human participants, where the rankings are updated dynamically in response to user activity.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

A Simple and Explainable Model for Park-and-Ride Car Park Occupancy Prediction

In a scenario of growing usage of park-and-ride facilities, understanding and predicting car park occupancy is becoming increasingly important. This study presents a model that effectively captures the occupancy patterns of park-and-ride car parks for commuters using truncated normal distributions for vehicle arrival and departure times. The objective is to develop a predictive model with minimal parameters corresponding to commuter behaviour, enabling the estimation of parking saturation and unfulfilled demand. The proposed model successfully identifies the regular, periodic nature of commuter parking behaviour, where vehicles arrive in the morning and depart in the afternoon. It operates using aggregate data, eliminating the need for individual tracking of arrivals and departures. The model's predictive and now-casting capabilities are demonstrated through real-world data from car parks in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. A simple model extension furthermore enables the prediction of when a car park will reach its occupancy limit and estimates the additional spaces required to accommodate such excess demand. Thus, beyond forecasting, the model serves as a valuable tool for evaluating interventions, such as expanding parking capacity, to optimize park-and-ride facilities.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Analyzing News Engagement on Facebook: Tracking Ideological Segregation and News Quality in the Facebook URL Dataset

The Facebook Privacy-Protected Full URLs Dataset was released to enable independent, academic research on the impact of Facebook's platform on society while ensuring user privacy. The dataset has been used in several studies to analyze the relationship between social media engagement and societal issues such as misinformation, polarization, and the quality of consumed news. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the engagement with popular news domains, covering four years from January 2017 to December 2020, with a focus on user engagement metrics related to news URLs in the U.S. By incorporating the ideological alignment and composite score of quality and reliability of news sources, along with users' political preferences, we construct weighted averages of ideology and quality of news consumption for liberal, conservative, and moderate audiences. This allows us to track the evolution of (i) the ideological gap in news consumption between liberals and conservatives and (ii) the average quality of each group's news consumption. We identify two major shifts in trends, each tied to engagement changes. In both, the ideological gap widens and news quality declines. However, engagement rises in the first shift but falls in the second. Finally, we contextualize these trends by linking them to two major Facebook News Feed updates. Our findings provide empirical evidence to better understand user behavior and engagement with news and their leaning and reliability during the period covered by the dataset.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

A Decade of News Forum Interactions: Threaded Conversations, Signed Votes, and Topical Tags

We present a large-scale, longitudinal dataset capturing user activity on the online platform of DerStandard, a major Austrian newspaper. The dataset spans ten years (2013-2022) and includes over 75 million user comments, more than 400 million votes, and detailed metadata on articles and user interactions. It provides structured conversation threads, explicit up- and downvotes of user comments and editorial topic labels, enabling rich analyses of online discourse while preserving user privacy. To ensure this privacy, all persistent identifiers are anonymized using salted hash functions, and the raw comment texts are not publicly shared. Instead, we release pre-computed vector representations derived from a state-of-the-art embedding model. The dataset supports research on discussion dynamics, network structures, and semantic analyses in the mid-resourced language German, offering a reusable resource across computational social science and related fields.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Improving Subgraph-GNNs via Edge-Level Ego-Network Encodings

We present a novel edge-level ego-network encoding for learning on graphs that can boost Message Passing Graph Neural Networks (MP-GNNs) by providing additional node and edge features or extending message-passing formats. The proposed encoding is sufficient to distinguish Strongly Regular Graphs, a family of challenging 3-WL equivalent graphs. We show theoretically that such encoding is more expressive than node-based sub-graph MP-GNNs. In an empirical evaluation on four benchmarks with 10 graph datasets, our results match or improve previous baselines on expressivity, graph classification, graph regression, and proximity tasks -- while reducing memory usage by 18.1x in certain real-world settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Large scale analysis of gender bias and sexism in song lyrics

We employ Natural Language Processing techniques to analyse 377808 English song lyrics from the "Two Million Song Database" corpus, focusing on the expression of sexism across five decades (1960-2010) and the measurement of gender biases. Using a sexism classifier, we identify sexist lyrics at a larger scale than previous studies using small samples of manually annotated popular songs. Furthermore, we reveal gender biases by measuring associations in word embeddings learned on song lyrics. We find sexist content to increase across time, especially from male artists and for popular songs appearing in Billboard charts. Songs are also shown to contain different language biases depending on the gender of the performer, with male solo artist songs containing more and stronger biases. This is the first large scale analysis of this type, giving insights into language usage in such an influential part of popular culture.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Beyond 1-WL with Local Ego-Network Encodings

Identifying similar network structures is key to capture graph isomorphisms and learn representations that exploit structural information encoded in graph data. This work shows that ego-networks can produce a structural encoding scheme for arbitrary graphs with greater expressivity than the Weisfeiler-Lehman (1-WL) test. We introduce IGEL, a preprocessing step to produce features that augment node representations by encoding ego-networks into sparse vectors that enrich Message Passing (MP) Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) beyond 1-WL expressivity. We describe formally the relation between IGEL and 1-WL, and characterize its expressive power and limitations. Experiments show that IGEL matches the empirical expressivity of state-of-the-art methods on isomorphism detection while improving performance on seven GNN architectures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Uncovering the Limits of Text-based Emotion Detection

Identifying emotions from text is crucial for a variety of real world tasks. We consider the two largest now-available corpora for emotion classification: GoEmotions, with 58k messages labelled by readers, and Vent, with 33M writer-labelled messages. We design a benchmark and evaluate several feature spaces and learning algorithms, including two simple yet novel models on top of BERT that outperform previous strong baselines on GoEmotions. Through an experiment with human participants, we also analyze the differences between how writers express emotions and how readers perceive them. Our results suggest that emotions expressed by writers are harder to identify than emotions that readers perceive. We share a public web interface for researchers to explore our models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Inductive Graph Embeddings through Locality Encodings

Learning embeddings from large-scale networks is an open challenge. Despite the overwhelming number of existing methods, is is unclear how to exploit network structure in a way that generalizes easily to unseen nodes, edges or graphs. In this work, we look at the problem of finding inductive network embeddings in large networks without domain-dependent node/edge attributes. We propose to use a set of basic predefined local encodings as the basis of a learning algorithm. In particular, we consider the degree frequencies at different distances from a node, which can be computed efficiently for relatively short distances and a large number of nodes. Interestingly, the resulting embeddings generalize well across unseen or distant regions in the network, both in unsupervised settings, when combined with language model learning, as well as in supervised tasks, when used as additional features in a neural network. Despite its simplicity, this method achieves state-of-the-art performance in tasks such as role detection, link prediction and node classification, and represents an inductive network embedding method directly applicable to large unattributed networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Societal Controversies in Wikipedia Articles

Collaborative content creation inevitably reaches situations where different points of view lead to conflict. We focus on Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia anyone may edit, where disputes about content in controversial articles often reflect larger societal debates. While Wikipedia has a public edit history and discussion section for every article, the substance of these sections is difficult to phantom for Wikipedia users interested in the development of an article and in locating which topics were most controversial. In this paper we present Contropedia, a tool that augments Wikipedia articles and gives insight into the development of controversial topics. Contropedia uses an efficient language agnostic measure based on the edit history that focuses on wiki links to easily identify which topics within a Wikipedia article have been most controversial and when.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Sharing emotions at scale: The Vent dataset

The continuous and increasing use of social media has enabled the expression of human thoughts, opinions, and everyday actions publicly at an unprecedented scale. We present the Vent dataset, the largest annotated dataset of text, emotions, and social connections to date. It comprises more than 33 millions of posts by nearly a million of users together with their social connections. Each post has an associated emotion. There are 705 different emotions, organized in 63 "emotion categories", forming a two-level taxonomy of affects. Our initial statistical analysis describes the global patterns of activity in the Vent platform, revealing large heterogenities and certain remarkable regularities regarding the use of the different emotions. We focus on the aggregated use of emotions, the temporal activity, and the social network of users, and outline possible methods to infer emotion networks based on the user activity. We also analyze the text and describe the affective landscape of Vent, finding agreements with existing (small scale) annotated corpus in terms of emotion categories and positive/negative valences. Finally, we discuss possible research questions that can be addressed from this unique dataset.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Interactive Discovery System for Direct Democracy

Decide Madrid is the civic technology of Madrid City Council which allows users to create and support online petitions. Despite the initial success, the platform is encountering problems with the growth of petition signing because petitions are far from the minimum number of supporting votes they must gather. Previous analyses have suggested that this problem is produced by the interface: a paginated list of petitions which applies a non-optimal ranking algorithm. For this reason, we present an interactive system for the discovery of topics and petitions. This approach leads us to reflect on the usefulness of data visualization techniques to address relevant societal challenges.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Online Petitioning Through Data Exploration and What We Found There: A Dataset of Petitions from Avaaz.org

The Internet has become a fundamental resource for activism as it facilitates political mobilization at a global scale. Petition platforms are a clear example of how thousands of people around the world can contribute to social change. Avaaz.org, with a presence in over 200 countries, is one of the most popular of this type. However, little research has focused on this platform, probably due to a lack of available data. In this work we retrieved more than 350K petitions, standardized their field values, and added new information using language detection and named-entity recognition. To motivate future research with this unique repository of global protest, we present a first exploration of the dataset. In particular, we examine how social media campaigning is related to the success of petitions, as well as some geographic and linguistic findings about the worldwide community of Avaaz.org. We conclude with example research questions that could be addressed with our dataset.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Deliberative Platform Design: The case study of the online discussions in Decidim Barcelona

With the irruption of ICTs and the crisis of political representation, many online platforms have been developed with the aim of improving participatory democratic processes. However, regarding platforms for online petitioning, previous research has not found examples of how to effectively introduce discussions, a crucial feature to promote deliberation. In this study we focus on the case of Decidim Barcelona, the online participatory-democracy platform launched by the City Council of Barcelona in which proposals can be discussed with an interface that combines threaded discussions and comment alignment with the proposal. This innovative approach allows to examine whether neutral, positive or negative comments are more likely to generate discussion cascades. The results reveal that, with this interface, comments marked as negatively aligned with the proposal were more likely to engage users in online discussions and, therefore, helped to promote deliberative decision making.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

When a Movement Becomes a Party: The 2015 Barcelona City Council Election

Barcelona en Comú, an emerging grassroots movement-party, won the 2015 Barcelona City Council election. This candidacy was devised by activists involved in the 15M movement in order to turn citizen outrage into political change. On the one hand, the 15M movement is based on a decentralized structure. On the other hand, political science literature postulates that parties historically develop oligarchical leadership structures. This tension motivates us to examine whether Barcelona en Comú preserved a decentralizated structure or adopted a conventional centralized organization. In this article we analyse the Twitter networks of the parties that ran for this election by measuring their hierarchical structure, information efficiency and social resilience. Our results show that in Barcelona en Comú two well-defined groups co-exist: a cluster dominated by the leader and the collective accounts, and another cluster formed by the movement activists. While the former group is highly centralized like the other major parties, the latter one stands out for its decentralized, cohesive and resilient structure.

cs.SI↗