arXiv subjects

Andreas Krause

Publications and source records attributed to Andreas Krause.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Learning Safety Constraints for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools but pose significant safety risks through harmful outputs and vulnerability to adversarial attacks. We propose SaP, short for Safety Polytope, a geometric approach to LLM safety that learns and enforces multiple safety constraints directly in the model's representation space. We develop a framework that identifies safe and unsafe regions via the polytope's facets, enabling both detection and correction of unsafe outputs through geometric steering. Unlike existing approaches that modify model weights, SaP operates post-hoc in the representation space, preserving model capabilities while enforcing safety constraints. Experiments across multiple LLMs demonstrate that our method can effectively detect unethical inputs, reduce adversarial attack success rates while maintaining performance on standard tasks, thus highlighting the importance of having an explicit geometric model for safety. Analysis of the learned polytope facets reveals emergence of specialization in detecting different semantic notions of safety, providing interpretable insights into how safety is captured in LLMs' representation space.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Adaptable Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction from Heterogeneous Data using Large Language Models

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are essential for identifying high-risk individuals and guiding preventive actions. However, existing models struggle with the challenges of real-world clinical practice as they oversimplify patient profiles, rely on rigid input schemas, and are sensitive to distribution shifts. We developed AdaCVD, an adaptable CVD risk prediction framework built on large language models extensively fine-tuned on over half a million participants from the UK Biobank. In benchmark comparisons, AdaCVD surpasses established risk scores and standard machine learning approaches, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Crucially, for the first time, it addresses key clinical challenges across three dimensions: it flexibly incorporates comprehensive yet variable patient information; it seamlessly integrates both structured data and unstructured text; and it rapidly adapts to new patient populations using minimal additional data. In stratified analyses, it demonstrates robust performance across demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical subgroups, including underrepresented cohorts. AdaCVD offers a promising path toward more flexible, AI-driven clinical decision support tools suited to the realities of heterogeneous and dynamic healthcare environments.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Finite-Sample-Based Reachability for Safe Control with Gaussian Process Dynamics

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is shown to be effective for learning unknown dynamics, enabling efficient and safety-aware control strategies across diverse applications. However, existing GP-based model predictive control (GP-MPC) methods either rely on approximations, thus lacking guarantees, or are overly conservative, which limits their practical utility. To close this gap, we present a sampling-based framework that efficiently propagates the model's epistemic uncertainty while avoiding conservatism. We establish a novel sample complexity result that enables the construction of a reachable set using a finite number of dynamics functions sampled from the GP posterior. Building on this, we design a sampling-based GP-MPC scheme that is recursively feasible and guarantees closed-loop safety and stability with high probability. Finally, we showcase the effectiveness of our method on two numerical examples, highlighting accurate reachable set over-approximation and safe closed-loop performance.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI (Interim Report)

This is the interim publication of the first International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI. The report synthesises the scientific understanding of general-purpose AI -- AI that can perform a wide variety of tasks -- with a focus on understanding and managing its risks. A diverse group of 75 AI experts contributed to this report, including an international Expert Advisory Panel nominated by 30 countries, the EU, and the UN. Led by the Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content. The final report is available at arXiv:2501.17805

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Personalized Federated Learning of Probabilistic Models: A PAC-Bayesian Approach

Federated Learning (FL) aims to infer a shared model from private and decentralized data stored by multiple clients. Personalized FL (PFL) enhances the model's fit for each client by adapting the global model to the clients. A significant level of personalization is required for highly heterogeneous clients but can be challenging to achieve, especially when clients' datasets are small. To address this issue, we introduce the PAC-PFL framework for PFL of probabilistic models. PAC-PFL infers a shared hyper-posterior and treats each client's posterior inference as the personalization step. Unlike previous PFL algorithms, PAC-PFL does not regularize all personalized models towards a single shared model, thereby greatly enhancing its personalization flexibility. By establishing and minimizing a PAC-Bayesian generalization bound on the average true loss of clients, PAC-PFL effectively mitigates overfitting even in data-poor scenarios. Additionally, PAC-PFL provides generalization bounds for new clients joining later. PAC-PFL achieves accurate and well-calibrated predictions, as supported by our experiments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A PAC-Bayesian Framework for Optimal Control with Stability Guarantees

Stochastic Nonlinear Optimal Control (SNOC) involves minimizing a cost function that averages out the random uncertainties affecting the dynamics of nonlinear systems. For tractability reasons, this problem is typically addressed by minimizing an empirical cost, which represents the average cost across a finite dataset of sampled disturbances. However, this approach raises the challenge of quantifying the control performance against out-of-sample uncertainties. Particularly, in scenarios where the training dataset is small, SNOC policies are prone to overfitting, resulting in significant discrepancies between the empirical cost and the true cost, i.e., the average SNOC cost incurred during control deployment. Therefore, establishing generalization bounds on the true cost is crucial for ensuring reliability in real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that leverages PAC-Bayes theory to provide rigorous generalization bounds for SNOC. Based on these bounds, we propose a new method for designing optimal controllers, offering a principled way to incorporate prior knowledge into the synthesis process, which aids in improving the control policy and mitigating overfitting. Furthermore, by leveraging recent parametrizations of stabilizing controllers for nonlinear systems, our framework inherently ensures closed-loop stability. The effectiveness of our proposed method in incorporating prior knowledge and combating overfitting is shown by designing neural network controllers for tasks in cooperative robotics.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Standardizing Structural Causal Models

Synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCMs) are commonly used for benchmarking causal structure learning algorithms. However, the variances and pairwise correlations in SCM data tend to increase along the causal ordering. Several popular algorithms exploit these artifacts, possibly leading to conclusions that do not generalize to real-world settings. Existing metrics like $\operatorname{Var}$-sortability and $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortability quantify these patterns, but they do not provide tools to remedy them. To address this, we propose internally-standardized structural causal models (iSCMs), a modification of SCMs that introduces a standardization operation at each variable during the generative process. By construction, iSCMs are not $\operatorname{Var}$-sortable. We also find empirical evidence that they are mostly not $\operatorname{R^2}$-sortable for commonly-used graph families. Moreover, contrary to the post-hoc standardization of data generated by standard SCMs, we prove that linear iSCMs are less identifiable from prior knowledge on the weights and do not collapse to deterministic relationships in large systems, which may make iSCMs a useful model in causal inference beyond the benchmarking problem studied here. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/werkaaa/iscm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

NIL: No-data Imitation Learning by Leveraging Pre-trained Video Diffusion Models

Acquiring physically plausible motor skills across diverse and unconventional morphologies-including humanoid robots, quadrupeds, and animals-is essential for advancing character simulation and robotics. Traditional methods, such as reinforcement learning (RL) are task- and body-specific, require extensive reward function engineering, and do not generalize well. Imitation learning offers an alternative but relies heavily on high-quality expert demonstrations, which are difficult to obtain for non-human morphologies. Video diffusion models, on the other hand, are capable of generating realistic videos of various morphologies, from humans to ants. Leveraging this capability, we propose a data-independent approach for skill acquisition that learns 3D motor skills from 2D-generated videos, with generalization capability to unconventional and non-human forms. Specifically, we guide the imitation learning process by leveraging vision transformers for video-based comparisons by calculating pair-wise distance between video embeddings. Along with video-encoding distance, we also use a computed similarity between segmented video frames as a guidance reward. We validate our method on locomotion tasks involving unique body configurations. In humanoid robot locomotion tasks, we demonstrate that 'No-data Imitation Learning' (NIL) outperforms baselines trained on 3D motion-capture data. Our results highlight the potential of leveraging generative video models for physically plausible skill learning with diverse morphologies, effectively replacing data collection with data generation for imitation learning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Performance-driven Constrained Optimal Auto-Tuner for MPC

A key challenge in tuning Model Predictive Control (MPC) cost function parameters is to ensure that the system performance stays consistently above a certain threshold. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method, COAT-MPC, Constrained Optimal Auto-Tuner for MPC. With every tuning iteration, COAT-MPC gathers performance data and learns by updating its posterior belief. It explores the tuning parameters' domain towards optimistic parameters in a goal-directed fashion, which is key to its sample efficiency. We theoretically analyze COAT-MPC, showing that it satisfies performance constraints with arbitrarily high probability at all times and provably converges to the optimum performance within finite time. Through comprehensive simulations and comparative analyses with a hardware platform, we demonstrate the effectiveness of COAT-MPC in comparison to classical Bayesian Optimization (BO) and other state-of-the-art methods. When applied to autonomous racing, our approach outperforms baselines in terms of constraint violations and cumulative regret over time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Residual Deep Gaussian Processes on Manifolds

We propose practical deep Gaussian process models on Riemannian manifolds, similar in spirit to residual neural networks. With manifold-to-manifold hidden layers and an arbitrary last layer, they can model manifold- and scalar-valued functions, as well as vector fields. We target data inherently supported on manifolds, which is too complex for shallow Gaussian processes thereon. For example, while the latter perform well on high-altitude wind data, they struggle with the more intricate, nonstationary patterns at low altitudes. Our models significantly improve performance in these settings, enhancing prediction quality and uncertainty calibration, and remain robust to overfitting, reverting to shallow models when additional complexity is unneeded. We further showcase our models on Bayesian optimisation problems on manifolds, using stylised examples motivated by robotics, and obtain substantial improvements in later stages of the optimisation process. Finally, we show our models to have potential for speeding up inference for non-manifold data, when, and if, it can be mapped to a proxy manifold well enough.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Optimistic Games for Combinatorial Bayesian Optimization with Application to Protein Design

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful framework to optimize black-box expensive-to-evaluate functions via sequential interactions. In several important problems (e.g. drug discovery, circuit design, neural architecture search, etc.), though, such functions are defined over large $\textit{combinatorial and unstructured}$ spaces. This makes existing BO algorithms not feasible due to the intractable maximization of the acquisition function over these domains. To address this issue, we propose $\textbf{GameOpt}$, a novel game-theoretical approach to combinatorial BO. $\textbf{GameOpt}$ establishes a cooperative game between the different optimization variables, and selects points that are game $\textit{equilibria}$ of an upper confidence bound acquisition function. These are stable configurations from which no variable has an incentive to deviate$-$ analog to local optima in continuous domains. Crucially, this allows us to efficiently break down the complexity of the combinatorial domain into individual decision sets, making $\textbf{GameOpt}$ scalable to large combinatorial spaces. We demonstrate the application of $\textbf{GameOpt}$ to the challenging $\textit{protein design}$ problem and validate its performance on four real-world protein datasets. Each protein can take up to $20^{X}$ possible configurations, where $X$ is the length of a protein, making standard BO methods infeasible. Instead, our approach iteratively selects informative protein configurations and very quickly discovers highly active protein variants compared to other baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Confidence Estimation via Sequential Likelihood Mixing

We present a universal framework for constructing confidence sets based on sequential likelihood mixing. Building upon classical results from sequential analysis, we provide a unifying perspective on several recent lines of work, and establish fundamental connections between sequential mixing, Bayesian inference and regret inequalities from online estimation. The framework applies to any realizable family of likelihood functions and allows for non-i.i.d. data and anytime validity. Moreover, the framework seamlessly integrates standard approximate inference techniques, such as variational inference and sampling-based methods, and extends to misspecified model classes, while preserving provable coverage guarantees. We illustrate the power of the framework by deriving tighter confidence sequences for classical settings, including sequential linear regression and sparse estimation, with simplified proofs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

NeoRL: Efficient Exploration for Nonepisodic RL

We study the problem of nonepisodic reinforcement learning (RL) for nonlinear dynamical systems, where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent has to learn from a single trajectory, i.e., without resets. We propose Nonepisodic Optimistic RL (NeoRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. NeoRL uses well-calibrated probabilistic models and plans optimistically w.r.t. the epistemic uncertainty about the unknown dynamics. Under continuity and bounded energy assumptions on the system, we provide a first-of-its-kind regret bound of $O(Γ_T \sqrt{T})$ for general nonlinear systems with Gaussian process dynamics. We compare NeoRL to other baselines on several deep RL environments and empirically demonstrate that NeoRL achieves the optimal average cost while incurring the least regret.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Transductive Active Learning: Theory and Applications

We study a generalization of classical active learning to real-world settings with concrete prediction targets where sampling is restricted to an accessible region of the domain, while prediction targets may lie outside this region. We analyze a family of decision rules that sample adaptively to minimize uncertainty about prediction targets. We are the first to show, under general regularity assumptions, that such decision rules converge uniformly to the smallest possible uncertainty obtainable from the accessible data. We demonstrate their strong sample efficiency in two key applications: active fine-tuning of large neural networks and safe Bayesian optimization, where they achieve state-of-the-art performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Efficiently Learning at Test-Time: Active Fine-Tuning of LLMs

Recent efforts in fine-tuning language models often rely on automatic data selection, commonly using Nearest Neighbors retrieval from large datasets. However, we theoretically show that this approach tends to select redundant data, limiting its effectiveness or even hurting performance. To address this, we introduce SIFT, a data selection algorithm designed to reduce uncertainty about the model's response given a prompt, which unifies ideas from retrieval and active learning. Whereas Nearest Neighbor retrieval typically fails in the presence of information duplication, SIFT accounts for information duplication and optimizes the overall information gain of the selected examples. We focus our evaluations on fine-tuning at test-time for prompt-specific language modeling on the Pile dataset, and show that SIFT consistently outperforms Nearest Neighbor retrieval, with minimal computational overhead. Moreover, we show that our uncertainty estimates can predict the performance gain of test-time fine-tuning, and use this to develop an adaptive algorithm that invests test-time compute proportional to realized performance gains. We provide the $\texttt{activeft}$ (Active Fine-Tuning) library which can be used as a drop-in replacement for Nearest Neighbor retrieval.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence commonly refers to the science and engineering of artificial systems that can carry out tasks generally associated with requiring aspects of human intelligence, such as playing games, translating languages, and driving cars. In recent years, there have been exciting advances in learning-based, data-driven approaches towards AI, and machine learning and deep learning have enabled computer systems to perceive the world in unprecedented ways. Reinforcement learning has enabled breakthroughs in complex games such as Go and challenging robotics tasks such as quadrupedal locomotion. A key aspect of intelligence is to not only make predictions, but reason about the uncertainty in these predictions, and to consider this uncertainty when making decisions. This is what this manuscript on "Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence" is about. The first part covers probabilistic approaches to machine learning. We discuss the differentiation between "epistemic" uncertainty due to lack of data and "aleatoric" uncertainty, which is irreducible and stems, e.g., from noisy observations and outcomes. We discuss concrete approaches towards probabilistic inference and modern approaches to efficient approximate inference. The second part of the manuscript is about taking uncertainty into account in sequential decision tasks. We consider active learning and Bayesian optimization -- approaches that collect data by proposing experiments that are informative for reducing the epistemic uncertainty. We then consider reinforcement learning and modern deep RL approaches that use neural network function approximation. We close by discussing modern approaches in model-based RL, which harness epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty to guide exploration, while also reasoning about safety.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

International AI Safety Report

The first International AI Safety Report comprehensively synthesizes the current evidence on the capabilities, risks, and safety of advanced AI systems. The report was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. Thirty nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. A total of 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Contextual Bilevel Reinforcement Learning for Incentive Alignment

The optimal policy in various real-world strategic decision-making problems depends both on the environmental configuration and exogenous events. For these settings, we introduce Contextual Bilevel Reinforcement Learning (CB-RL), a stochastic bilevel decision-making model, where the lower level consists of solving a contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP). CB-RL can be viewed as a Stackelberg Game where the leader and a random context beyond the leader's control together decide the setup of many MDPs that potentially multiple followers best respond to. This framework extends beyond traditional bilevel optimization and finds relevance in diverse fields such as RLHF, tax design, reward shaping, contract theory and mechanism design. We propose a stochastic Hyper Policy Gradient Descent (HPGD) algorithm to solve CB-RL, and demonstrate its convergence. Notably, HPGD uses stochastic hypergradient estimates, based on observations of the followers' trajectories. Therefore, it allows followers to use any training procedure and the leader to be agnostic of the specific algorithm, which aligns with various real-world scenarios. We further consider the setting when the leader can influence the training of followers and propose an accelerated algorithm. We empirically demonstrate the performance of our algorithm for reward shaping and tax design.

math.OC↗