arXiv subjects

Andreas Langousis

Publications and source records attributed to Andreas Langousis.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Probabilistic water demand forecasting using quantile regression algorithms

Machine and statistical learning algorithms can be reliably automated and applied at scale. Therefore, they can constitute a considerable asset for designing practical forecasting systems, such as those related to urban water demand. Quantile regression algorithms are statistical and machine learning algorithms that can provide probabilistic forecasts in a straightforward way, and have not been applied so far for urban water demand forecasting. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by automating and extensively comparing several quantile-regression-based practical systems for probabilistic one-day ahead urban water demand forecasting. For designing the practical systems, we use five individual algorithms (i.e., the quantile regression, linear boosting, generalized random forest, gradient boosting machine and quantile regression neural network algorithms), their mean combiner and their median combiner. The comparison is conducted by exploiting a large urban water flow dataset, as well as several types of hydrometeorological time series (which are considered as exogenous predictor variables in the forecasting setting). The results mostly favour the practical systems designed using the linear boosting algorithm, probably due to the presence of trends in the urban water flow time series. The forecasts of the mean and median combiners are also found to be skilful in general terms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Super ensemble learning for daily streamflow forecasting: Large-scale demonstration and comparison with multiple machine learning algorithms

Daily streamflow forecasting through data-driven approaches is traditionally performed using a single machine learning algorithm. Existing applications are mostly restricted to examination of few case studies, not allowing accurate assessment of the predictive performance of the algorithms involved. Here we propose super learning (a type of ensemble learning) by combining 10 machine learning algorithms. We apply the proposed algorithm in one-step ahead forecasting mode. For the application, we exploit a big dataset consisting of 10-year long time series of daily streamflow, precipitation and temperature from 511 basins. The super learner improves over the performance of the linear regression algorithm by 20.06%, outperforming the "hard to beat in practice" equal weight combiner. The latter improves over the performance of the linear regression algorithm by 19.21%. The best performing individual machine learning algorithm is neural networks, which improves over the performance of the linear regression algorithm by 16.73%, followed by extremely randomized trees (16.40%), XGBoost (15.92%), loess (15.36%), random forests (12.75%), polyMARS (12.36%), MARS (4.74%), lasso (0.11%) and support vector regression (-0.45%). Based on the obtained large-scale results, we propose super learning for daily streamflow forecasting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Global-scale massive feature extraction from monthly hydroclimatic time series: Statistical characterizations, spatial patterns and hydrological similarity

Hydroclimatic time series analysis focuses on a few feature types (e.g., autocorrelations, trends, extremes), which describe a small portion of the entire information content of the observations. Aiming to exploit a larger part of the available information and, thus, to deliver more reliable results (e.g., in hydroclimatic time series clustering contexts), here we approach hydroclimatic time series analysis differently, i.e., by performing massive feature extraction. In this respect, we develop a big data framework for hydroclimatic variable behaviour characterization. This framework relies on approximately 60 diverse features and is completely automatic (in the sense that it does not depend on the hydroclimatic process at hand). We apply the new framework to characterize mean monthly temperature, total monthly precipitation and mean monthly river flow. The applications are conducted at the global scale by exploiting 40-year-long time series originating from over 13 000 stations. We extract interpretable knowledge on seasonality, trends, autocorrelation, long-range dependence and entropy, and on feature types that are met less frequently. We further compare the examined hydroclimatic variable types in terms of this knowledge and, identify patterns related to the spatial variability of the features. For this latter purpose, we also propose and exploit a hydroclimatic time series clustering methodology. This new methodology is based on Breiman's random forests. The descriptive and exploratory insights gained by the global-scale applications prove the usefulness of the adopted feature compilation in hydroclimatic contexts. Moreover, the spatially coherent patterns characterizing the clusters delivered by the new methodology build confidence in its future exploitation...

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

A Gradient Free Neural Network Framework Based on Universal Approximation Theorem

We present a numerical scheme for computation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) weights, which stems from the Universal Approximation Theorem, avoiding laborious iterations. The proposed algorithm adheres to the underlying theory, is highly fast, and results in remarkably low errors when applied for regression and classification of complex data-sets, such as the Griewank function of multiple variables $\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^{100}$ with random noise addition, and MNIST database for handwritten digits recognition, with $7\times10^4$ images. The same mathematical formulation is found capable of approximating highly nonlinear functions in multiple dimensions, with low errors (e.g. $10^{-10}$) for the test-set of the unknown functions, their higher-order partial derivatives, as well as numerically solving Partial Differential Equations. The method is based on the calculation of the weights of each neuron in small neighborhoods of the data, such that the corresponding local approximation matrix is invertible. Accordingly, optimization of hyperparameters is not necessary, as the number of neurons stems directly from the dimensionality of the data, further improving the algorithmic speed. Under this setting, overfitting is inherently avoided, and the results are interpretable and reproducible. The complexity of the proposed algorithm is of class P with $\mathcal{O}(mn^2)+\mathcal{O}(\frac{m^3}{n^2})-\mathcal{O}(\log(n+1))$ computing time, with respect to the observations $m$ and features $n$, in contrast with the NP-Complete class of standard algorithms for ANN training. The performance of the method is high, irrespective of the size of the dataset, and the test-set errors are similar or smaller than the training errors, indicating the generalization efficiency of the algorithm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

ITSO: A novel Inverse Transform Sampling-based Optimization algorithm for stochastic search

Optimization algorithms appear in the core calculations of numerous Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning methods, as well as Engineering and Business applications. Following recent works on the theoretical deficiencies of AI, a rigor context for the optimization problem of a \textit{black-box} objective function is developed. The algorithm stems directly from the theory of probability, instead of a presumed inspiration, thus the convergence properties of the proposed methodology are inherently stable. In particular, the proposed optimizer utilizes an algorithmic implementation of the $n$-dimensional inverse transform sampling as a search strategy. No control parameters are required to be tuned, and the trade-off among exploration and exploitation is by definition satisfied. A theoretical proof is provided, concluding that only falling into the proposed framework, either directly or incidentally, any optimization algorithm converges in the fastest possible time. The numerical experiments, verify the theoretical results on the efficacy of the algorithm apropos reaching the optimum, as fast as possible.

math.OC↗