arXiv subjects

Andreas Sauter

Publications and source records attributed to Andreas Sauter.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Amortized Interventional Forecasting for Multivariate CIR Processes

Mean-reverting dynamics are pervasive in finance, and the Cox--Ingersoll--Ross (CIR) process is a standard model for the time series they produce, from short rates to credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Yet CIR models capture only \emph{correlated} co-movement, not \emph{causal} influence between series, so they cannot answer the system's response when one series is externally shocked, which observational conditionals confound with historical co-movement. We make two contributions. First, an amortized model for distributional causal effect estimation that frames trajectories as time-stamped observations and predicts the calibrated multi-horizon shock response without retraining per scenario. Second, a causal multivariate CIR data-generating process that supplies the paired observational and interventional ground truth that real markets cannot. We instantiate and calibrate the framework on CDS spreads as a testbed. CIR-ACTIVA's validity is established on synthetic ground truth, independent of how well the simulator matches reality, while practical grounding is assessed by backtesting the generated traces against real CDS data. Against observational and amortized causal-inference baselines, CIR-ACTIVA leads on both causal selectivity in the joint distribution and horizon-resolved calibration, retaining its selectivity once the interventional law varies over the horizon, with gains concentrating at short horizons. This opens up a class of what-if queries on coupled spread systems, CDS stress testing among them, that observational forecasters cannot answer.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

EvoIdeator: Evolving Scientific Ideas through Checklist-Grounded Reinforcement Learning

Scientific idea generation is a cornerstone of autonomous knowledge discovery, yet the iterative evolution required to transform initial concepts into high-quality research proposals remains a formidable challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs). Existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigms often rely on rubric-based scalar rewards that provide global quality scores but lack actionable granularity. Conversely, language-based refinement methods are typically confined to inference-time prompting, targeting models that are not explicitly optimized to internalize such critiques. To bridge this gap, we propose \textbf{EvoIdeator}, a framework that facilitates the evolution of scientific ideas by aligning the RL training objective with \textbf{checklist-grounded feedback}. EvoIdeator leverages a structured judge model to generate two synergistic signals: (1) \emph{lexicographic rewards} for multi-dimensional optimization, and (2) \emph{fine-grained language feedback} that offers span-level critiques regarding grounding, feasibility, and methodological rigor. By integrating these signals into the RL loop, we condition the policy to systematically utilize precise feedback during both optimization and inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EvoIdeator, built on Qwen3-4B, significantly outperforms much larger frontier models across key scientific metrics. Crucially, the learned policy exhibits strong generalization to diverse external feedback sources without further fine-tuning, offering a scalable and rigorous path toward self-refining autonomous ideation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

ACTIVA: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via Transformer-based Variational Autoencoder

Predicting post-intervention distributions from observational data is central to many scientific and decision-making problems, but remains challenging due to causal ambiguity, restrictive modeling assumptions, and the lack of amortization across tasks. We introduce ACTIVA, a transformer-based conditional variational autoencoder for amortized estimation of full interventional distributions from observational data and intervention queries. ACTIVA learns a conditional latent prior that supports zero-shot inference by amortizing causal knowledge across diverse training tasks. We provide a consistency result showing that, under idealized conditions, ACTIVA's learning objective targets a mixture over the interventional distributions of causal models that are observationally compatible with the input. Empirically, on synthetic datasets and biologically realistic gene-expression simulations, ACTIVA substantially outperforms a correlational baseline, reduces spurious non-descendant effects, and achieves competitive performance relative to strong amortized baselines. Our results show that ACTIVA is a promising approach for estimating interventional distributions from observational data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

SHARPIE: A Modular Framework for Reinforcement Learning and Human-AI Interaction Experiments

Reinforcement learning (RL) offers a general approach for modeling and training AI agents, including human-AI interaction scenarios. In this paper, we propose SHARPIE (Shared Human-AI Reinforcement Learning Platform for Interactive Experiments) to address the need for a generic framework to support experiments with RL agents and humans. Its modular design consists of a versatile wrapper for RL environments and algorithm libraries, a participant-facing web interface, logging utilities, deployment on popular cloud and participant recruitment platforms. It empowers researchers to study a wide variety of research questions related to the interaction between humans and RL agents, including those related to interactive reward specification and learning, learning from human feedback, action delegation, preference elicitation, user-modeling, and human-AI teaming. The platform is based on a generic interface for human-RL interactions that aims to standardize the field of study on RL in human contexts.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

CAGE: Causality-Aware Shapley Value for Global Explanations

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) is having more influence on our everyday lives, it becomes important that AI-based decisions are transparent and explainable. As a consequence, the field of eXplainable AI (or XAI) has become popular in recent years. One way to explain AI models is to elucidate the predictive importance of the input features for the AI model in general, also referred to as global explanations. Inspired by cooperative game theory, Shapley values offer a convenient way for quantifying the feature importance as explanations. However many methods based on Shapley values are built on the assumption of feature independence and often overlook causal relations of the features which could impact their importance for the ML model. Inspired by studies of explanations at the local level, we propose CAGE (Causally-Aware Shapley Values for Global Explanations). In particular, we introduce a novel sampling procedure for out-coalition features that respects the causal relations of the input features. We derive a practical approach that incorporates causal knowledge into global explanation and offers the possibility to interpret the predictive feature importance considering their causal relation. We evaluate our method on synthetic data and real-world data. The explanations from our approach suggest that they are not only more intuitive but also more faithful compared to previous global explanation methods.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

EduGym: An Environment and Notebook Suite for Reinforcement Learning Education

Due to the empirical success of reinforcement learning, an increasing number of students study the subject. However, from our practical teaching experience, we see students entering the field (bachelor, master and early PhD) often struggle. On the one hand, textbooks and (online) lectures provide the fundamentals, but students find it hard to translate between equations and code. On the other hand, public codebases do provide practical examples, but the implemented algorithms tend to be complex, and the underlying test environments contain multiple reinforcement learning challenges at once. Although this is realistic from a research perspective, it often hinders educational conceptual understanding. To solve this issue we introduce EduGym, a set of educational reinforcement learning environments and associated interactive notebooks tailored for education. Each EduGym environment is specifically designed to illustrate a certain aspect/challenge of reinforcement learning (e.g., exploration, partial observability, stochasticity, etc.), while the associated interactive notebook explains the challenge and its possible solution approaches, connecting equations and code in a single document. An evaluation among RL students and researchers shows 86% of them think EduGym is a useful tool for reinforcement learning education. All notebooks are available from https://www.edugym.org/, while the full software package can be installed from https://github.com/RLG-Leiden/edugym.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Improving image quality of sparse-view lung tumor CT images with U-Net

Background: We aimed at improving image quality (IQ) of sparse-view computed tomography (CT) images using a U-Net for lung metastasis detection and determining the best tradeoff between number of views, IQ, and diagnostic confidence. Methods: CT images from 41 subjects aged 62.8 $\pm$ 10.6 years (mean $\pm$ standard deviation), 23 men, 34 with lung metastasis, 7 healthy, were retrospectively selected (2016-2018) and forward projected onto 2,048-view sinograms. Six corresponding sparse-view CT data subsets at varying levels of undersampling were reconstructed from sinograms using filtered backprojection with 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, and 512 views. A dual-frame U-Net was trained and evaluated for each subsampling level on 8,658 images from 22 diseased subjects. A representative image per scan was selected from 19 subjects (12 diseased, 7 healthy) for a single-blinded multireader study. These slices, for all levels of subsampling, with and without U-Net postprocessing, were presented to three readers. IQ and diagnostic confidence were ranked using predefined scales. Subjective nodule segmentation was evaluated using sensitivity and Dice similarity coefficient (DSC); clustered Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used. Results: The 64-projection sparse-view images resulted in 0.89 sensitivity and 0.81 DSC, while their counterparts, postprocessed with the U-Net, had improved metrics (0.94 sensitivity and 0.85 DSC) (p = 0.400). Fewer views led to insufficient IQ for diagnosis. For increased views, no substantial discrepancies were noted between sparse-view and postprocessed images. Conclusions: Projection views can be reduced from 2,048 to 64 while maintaining IQ and the confidence of the radiologists on a satisfactory level.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Evaluation of GPT-4 for chest X-ray impression generation: A reader study on performance and perception

The remarkable generative capabilities of multimodal foundation models are currently being explored for a variety of applications. Generating radiological impressions is a challenging task that could significantly reduce the workload of radiologists. In our study we explored and analyzed the generative abilities of GPT-4 for Chest X-ray impression generation. To generate and evaluate impressions of chest X-rays based on different input modalities (image, text, text and image), a blinded radiological report was written for 25-cases of the publicly available NIH-dataset. GPT-4 was given image, finding section or both sequentially to generate an input dependent impression. In a blind randomized reading, 4-radiologists rated the impressions and were asked to classify the impression origin (Human, AI), providing justification for their decision. Lastly text model evaluation metrics and their correlation with the radiological score (summation of the 4 dimensions) was assessed. According to the radiological score, the human-written impression was rated highest, although not significantly different to text-based impressions. The automated evaluation metrics showed moderate to substantial correlations to the radiological score for the image impressions, however individual scores were highly divergent among inputs, indicating insufficient representation of radiological quality. Detection of AI-generated impressions varied by input and was 61% for text-based impressions. Impressions classified as AI-generated had significantly worse radiological scores even when written by a radiologist, indicating potential bias. Our study revealed significant discrepancies between a radiological assessment and common automatic evaluation metrics depending on the model input. The detection of AI-generated findings is subject to bias that highly rated impressions are perceived as human-written.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

A Meta-Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Causal Discovery

Causal discovery is a major task with the utmost importance for machine learning since causal structures can enable models to go beyond pure correlation-based inference and significantly boost their performance. However, finding causal structures from data poses a significant challenge both in computational effort and accuracy, let alone its impossibility without interventions in general. In this paper, we develop a meta-reinforcement learning algorithm that performs causal discovery by learning to perform interventions such that it can construct an explicit causal graph. Apart from being useful for possible downstream applications, the estimated causal graph also provides an explanation for the data-generating process. In this article, we show that our algorithm estimates a good graph compared to the SOTA approaches, even in environments whose underlying causal structure is previously unseen. Further, we make an ablation study that shows how learning interventions contribute to the overall performance of our approach. We conclude that interventions indeed help boost the performance, efficiently yielding an accurate estimate of the causal structure of a possibly unseen environment.

cs.LG↗