arXiv subjects

Andrei Mesinger

Publications and source records attributed to Andrei Mesinger.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

TILING I: Field-level Bayesian reconstruction of cosmological initial conditions during the epoch of reionization

Reconstructing the initial conditions (ICs) of the matter field for an observed volume gives a complete picture of that region's temporal evolution. IC reconstruction is common at low redshifts but largely unexplored during the epoch of reionization (EoR; $z\gtrsim 5$), partly due to difficulties modeling inhomogeneous cosmic radiation fields. Yet the EoR spans half the observable Universe, offering unmatched potential for astrophysics and cosmology. Here we quantify how well upcoming galaxy and 21cm observations can constrain ICs during the EoR. We develop $\tt TILING$ ($\bf T$omographic $\bf I$nference of $\bf L$inear $\bf I$Cs via $\bf N$etwork $\bf G$rafting): a hybrid machine learning pipeline that first produces a point estimate of the ICs, which then improves a score-based diffusion network for generating posterior samples. We train $\tt TILING$ on mock galaxy maps at varying UV magnitude limits, plus corresponding 21cm maps at varying noise levels and foreground "wedge" contamination. For fiducial survey choices, we achieve accurate IC reconstruction (posterior mean cross-correlation coefficients >0.8 and power spectrum errors under a few percent) down to $\text{k}\lesssim 0.2 \text{cMpc}^{-1}$. While 21cm interferometry aids recovery of IC power spectra, most constraining power, especially for IC Fourier phases, comes from galaxy maps, underscoring the need for complementary observations when interpreting the 21cm signal. We show how $\tt TILING$ can recover 21cm power spectrum modes excised by foreground contamination. Our framework can also: (i) guide follow-up observations of sub-volumes of interest; (ii) reconstruct galaxy evolution and reionization morphology for specific volumes; and (iii) isolate the contribution to reionization from the vast majority of galaxies unobservable by optical/IR telescopes like $\it JWST$. Our code is publicly available.

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arXiv2026

The burgeoning rise of the 21-cm forest I: constraints on the optical depth of the intergalactic medium at $5.38 < z < 5.84$

The redshifted 21-cm line is a promising probe of the Epoch of Reionization, during which the first generation of stars ionized the InterGalactic Medium (IGM). We aimed to constrain the IGM neutral Hydrogen fraction and spin temperature via redshifted 21-cm absorption against high-redshift radio sources. We analysed an 18-hour observation of the radio-loud quasar PSO J352.4034-15.3373 ($z = 5.84$) in the 203-222.5 MHz band. We obtained a continuum image with a $0.66$ mJy/beam rms noise and a spectrum with $3.6$ mJy/beam rms noise per 390 kHz-wide channel. We fit the quasar spectrum with a power-law continuum modified by an intervening 21-cm absorption, testing two scenarios: an island model, a residual cold neutral Hydrogen patch surviving at the end of reionization, and a global model, approximating the overall decline of the IGM HI fraction and spin temperature with redshift. Combining archival data spanning 150 MHz to 3.0 GHz with our measurements, we determined a quasar flux density of $86.8 \pm 1.1$ mJy at 200 MHz and a spectral index of $-0.88 \pm 0.02$ across the full frequency range. We found no evidence for the 21-cm absorption from intervening neutral Hydrogen at $5.38<z<5.84$. Assuming the island model, we set a 95% confidence lower limit on the IGM spin temperature of $1.73$ K in residual HI regions. Assuming the global model, we constrained the 21-cm optical depth to $\tau_{21}< 0.02$ (95% C.L.). These results provide constraints on the 21-cm optical depth near the end of reionization, over the $5.38 < z < 5.84$ range, and confirm that the IGM was heated above the adiabatic cooling limit ($\sim 0.8$ K at $z = 5.68$), consistent with theoretical predictions and with 21-cm power spectrum measurements at higher redshifts. Our results also disfavour the presence of extremely cold HI regions at $z < 5.84$ and open the way to future 21-cm absorption from high-redshift sources.

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arXiv2026

Square Kilometer Array Synergies for the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn

Synergies with other instruments will be essential in making, verifying, and interpreting a detection of the cosmic 21-cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and Cosmic Dawn (CD) with the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) telescope. Such synergies can (i) provide prior information about galaxies and the intergalactic medium (IGM) during the EoR/CD; (ii) pave the road to a first 21cm detection by mitigating foregrounds and systematics through cross-correlations; and (iii) give complimentary physical insights into the galaxy -- IGM connection. Here we review the current state of synergies and discuss what observations will best compliment SKA-low EoR/CD observations.

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arXiv2026

Overview of 21cm Experiments at high redshift with SKAO

We provide an overview of the eight SKAO Science Book chapters that motivate the Epoch of Reionisation and Cosmic Dawn experiments with SKA-Low. We describe the individual SKA-Low experiments and expected sensitivity - power spectrum, tomography, 21-cm forest, cross-correlations, building on the broad observational plan laid out in the 2015 SKA Science Book. Finally, we outline features of the telescope that will be critical for the success of EoR/CD science, e.g., beam apodization, substations, and multi-beaming.

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arXiv2026

21cmEMUv3: a hybrid diffusion-LSTM emulator of 21cmFAST summary observables

We are witnessing a surge in observations of the cosmic dawn (CD) and epoch of reionisation (EoR), driving an increasing demand for fast and robust theoretical interpretation frameworks. In response, machine learning (ML), and emulation in particular, has emerged as a powerful approach to accelerate and enhance inference pipelines. In this work, we present 21cmEMUv3, an emulator trained on 21cmFASTv3 simulations that model both atomically and molecularly cooling galaxies. 21cmEMUv3 is conditioned on $\sigma_8$ and ten astrophysical parameters to produce seven summary observables: (i) the cylindrical 21cm power spectrum (PS), emulated for the first time at such high resolution and accuracy across a wide redshift range of $z \sim$ 6--30; (ii) the spherically-averaged 21cm PS; (iii) the mean neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium (IGM); (iv) the mean 21cm spin temperature; (v) the global 21cm signal; (vi) the ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions (LFs); and (vii) the Thomson scattering optical depth. Notably, the cylindrical 21cm PS is emulated via score-based diffusion, while the remaining six summaries are emulated via long-short term memory (LSTM) networks, all achieving sub-percent median accuracy. We use the emulator to reinterpret current 21cm PS upper limits from HERA, for the first time using state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations to inform priors on star formation inside molecularly cooling galaxies. We find that our inferred soft-band X-ray luminosity per unit star formation rate is consistent with extrapolations of high-mass X-ray binaries to the low-metallicity regimes expected in the first galaxies, excluding values below $10^{39.2}$ erg s$^{-1}M^{-1}_\odot \rm{yr}$ at $95\%$ confidence. Finally, we produce forecasts for the detection of the cosmic 21cm PS with the Square Kilometre Array for different array configurations. The 21cmEMU package is publicly available.

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arXiv2026

Characterizing Lyman alpha emission from high-redshift galaxies

The Lyman $\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) line from high-redshift galaxies is a powerful probe of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) can significantly attenuate the emergent Ly$\alpha$ line, even in the damping wing of the cross-section. However, interpreting this damping wing imprint relies on our prior knowledge of the spectrum that escapes from the galaxy and its environs into the IGM. This emergent spectrum is highly sensitive to the composition and geometry of the interstellar and circumgalactic media, and so exhibits a large galaxy to galaxy scatter. Characterizing this scatter is further complicated by non-trivial selection effects introduced by observational surveys. Here we build a flexible, empirical model for the emergent Ly$\alpha$ spectra. Our model characterizes the emergent Ly$\alpha$ luminosity, the velocity offset of the Ly$\alpha$ line with respect to the systemic redshift, and the H$\alpha$ luminosity, with multivariate probability distributions conditioned on the UV magnitude. We constrain these distributions using $z\sim5-6$ galaxy observations with VLT MUSE and JWST NIRCam, forward-modeling observational selection functions together with galaxy parameters. Our model results in Ly$\alpha$ equivalent width distributions that are a better match to (independent) Subaru observations than previous empirical models. The extended distributions of Ly$\alpha$ equivalent widths and velocity offsets we obtain could facilitate Ly$\alpha$ transmission during the early stages of the EoR. We also illustrate how our model can be used to identify GN-z11-like outliers, potentially originating from merging systems. We publish fitting functions and make our model publicly available.

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arXiv2026

Semi-analytical approach to Ly$\alpha$ multiple-scattering in 21-cm signal simulations

A crucial physical quantity in determining the 21-cm signal during cosmic dawn is the inhomogeneous background of Ly$\alpha$ photons originating from the first galaxies. As these photons travel through the intergalactic medium, their scattering cross-section is often approximated as a delta function at resonance due to computational cost. That is, photons with emitted wavelengths between Ly$\alpha$ and Ly$\beta$ are assumed to travel in straight lines until they redshift into the Ly$\alpha$ resonance. However, due to the damping wing in the Ly$\alpha$ cross-section, this approximation fails as the frequency of the photon approaches the resonant frequency, resulting in multiple scatterings events that could be separated by non-negligible distances. Some previous works studied this effect of Ly$\alpha$ multiple scattering by running computationally heavy radiative-transfer simulations. However, robustly interpreting the cosmic 21cm signal requires exploring a large parameter space of astrophysical uncertainties, motivating more computationally-efficient approaches. Here we incorporate Ly$\alpha$ multiple scatterings in the public, semi-numerical simulation 21cmFAST. We employ Monte Carlo simulations to study the trajectories of Ly$\alpha$ photons on different scales. We find that the distance distributions of Ly$\alpha$ photons with respect to the absorption point can be modeled as analytical functions that are governed by a single parameter. Upon implementing the distance distributions in 21cmFAST, we find that the multiple scattering effect is important (about 50% difference in the 21-cm power spectrum) only at high redshifts before the spin temperature is fully coupled to the kinetic temperature. Furthermore, we find that Ly$\alpha$ multiple scattering does not enhance Ly$\alpha$ heating, and that the combined effect is negligible, especially under realistic X-ray heating scenarios.

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arXiv2025

First Results from HERA Phase II

We report the first upper limits on the power spectrum of 21-cm fluctuations during the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn from Phase II of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) experiment. HERA Phase II constitutes several significant improvements in the signal chain compared to Phase I, most notably resulting in expanded frequency bandwidth, from 50-250 MHz. In these first upper limits, we investigate a small two-week subset of the available Phase II observations, with a focus on identifying new systematic characteristics of the instrument, and establishing an analysis pipeline to account for them. We report 2$\sigma$ upper limits in eight spectral bands, spanning $5.6 \leq z \leq 24.4$ that are consistent with thermal noise at the $2\sigma$ level for $k \gtrsim 0.6-0.9 h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ (band dependent). Our tightest limit during Cosmic Dawn ($z>12$) is $1.13\times 10^6 {\rm mK}^2$ at ($k=0.55 h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}, z=16.78$), and during the EoR ($5.5<z<12$) it is $1.78\times 10^3 {\rm mK}^2$ at ($k=0.70 h{\rm Mpc}^{-1}, z=7.05$). We find that mutual coupling has become our dominant systematic, leaking foreground power that strongly contaminates the low-$k$ modes, resulting in the loss of modes from $k=0.35-0.55$ compared to Phase I data.

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arXiv2025

Exploring One-point Statistics in HERA Phase I Data: Effects of Foregrounds and Systematics on Measuring One-Point Statistics

Measuring one-point statistics in redshifted 21 cm intensity maps offers an opportunity to explore non-Gaussian features of the early universe. We assess the impact of instrumental effects on measurements made with the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) by forward modeling observational and simulation data. Using HERA Phase I observations over 94 nights, we examine the second (m2, variance) and third (m3) moments of images. We employ the DAYENU-filtering method for foreground removal and reduce simulated foreground residuals to 10% of the 21 cm signal residuals. In noiseless cosmological simulations, the amplitudes of one-point statistics measurements are significantly reduced by the instrument response and further reduced by wedge-filtering. Analyses with wedge-filtered observational data, along with expected noise simulations, show that systematics alter the probability distribution of the map pixels. Likelihood analysis based on the observational data shows m2 measurements disfavor the cold reionization model characterized by inefficient X-ray heating, in line with other power spectra measurements. Small signals in m3 due to the instrument response of the Phase I observation and wedge-filtering make it challenging to use these non-Gaussian statistics to explore model parameters. Forecasts with the full HERA array predict high signal-to-noise ratios for m2, m3, and S3 assuming no foregrounds, but wedge-filtering drastically reduces these ratios. This work demonstrates conclusively that a comprehensive understanding of instrumental effects on m2 and m3 is essential for their use as a cosmological probe, given their dependence on the underlying model.

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arXiv2025

Updated dark pixel fraction constraints on reionization's end from the Lyman-series forests of XQR-30

The fraction of "dark pixels" in the Ly$\alpha$ and other Lyman-series forests at $z\sim 5-6$ provides a powerful constraint on the end of the reionization process. Any spectral region showing transmission must be highly ionized, while dark regions could be ionized or neutral, thus the dark pixel fraction provides a (nearly) model independent upper limit to the volume-filling fraction of the neutral intergalactic medium, modulo choices in binning scale and dark pixel definition. Here we provide updated measurements of the 3.3 comoving Mpc dark pixel fraction at $z=4.85-6.25$ in the Ly$\alpha$, Ly$\beta$, and Ly$\gamma$ forests of 34 deep $5.8\lesssim z\lesssim 6.6$ quasar spectra from the (enlarged) XQR-30 sample. Using the negative pixel method to measure the dark pixel fraction, we derive fiducial $1\sigma$ upper limits on the volume-average neutral hydrogen fraction of $\langle x_{\rm{HI}}\rangle \leq \{0.030 + 0.048, 0.095 + 0.037, 0.191 + 0.056, 0.199 + 0.087\}$ at $\bar{z} = \{5.481, 5.654, 5.831, 6.043\}$ from the optimally sensitive combination of the Ly$\beta$ and Ly$\gamma$ forests. We further demonstrate an alternative method that treats the forest flux as a mixture of dark and transparent regions, where the latter are modeled using a physically-motivated parametric form for the intrinsic opacity distribution. The resulting model-dependent upper limits on $\langle x_{\rm{HI}}\rangle$ are similar to those derived from our fiducial model-independent analysis. We confirm that the bulk of reionization must be finished at $z>6$, while leaving room for an extended "soft landing" to the reionization history down to $z\sim 5.4$ suggested by Ly$\alpha$ forest opacity fluctuations.

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arXiv2025

Sample Variance Denoising in Cylindrical 21-cm Power Spectra

State-of-the-art simulations of reionisation-era 21-cm signal have limited volumes, generally orders of magnitude smaller than observations. Consequently, the Fourier modes in common between simulation and observation have limited overlap, especially in cylindrical (2D) k-space that is natural for 21-cm interferometry. This makes sample variance (i.e. the deviation of the simulated sample from the population mean due to finite box size) a potential issue when interpreting upcoming 21-cm observations. We introduce \texttt{21cmPSDenoiser}, a score-based diffusion model that can be applied to a single, forward-modelled realisation of the 21-cm 2D power spectrum (PS), predicting the corresponding \textit{population mean} on-the-fly during Bayesian inference. Individual samples of 2D Fourier amplitudes of wave modes relevant to current 21-cm observations can deviate from the mean by over 50\% for 300 cMpc simulations, even when only considering stochasticity due to sampling of Gaussian initial conditions. \texttt{21cmPSDenoiser} reduces this deviation by an order of magnitude, outperforming current state-of-the-art sample variance mitigation techniques like Fixing \& Pairing by a factor of few at almost no additional computational cost ($\sim6$s per PS). Unlike emulators, the denoiser is not tied to a particular model or simulator since its input is a (model-agnostic) realisation of the 2D 21-cm PS. Indeed, we confirm that it generalises to PS produced with a different 21-cm simulator than those on which it was trained. To quantify the improvement in parameter recovery, we simulate a 21-cm PS detection by the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Arrays (HERA) and run different inference pipelines corresponding to commonly-used approximations. We find that using \texttt{21cmPSDenoiser} in the inference pipeline outperforms other approaches, yielding an unbiased posterior that is 50\% narrower.

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arXiv2025

Efficient simulation of discrete galaxy populations and associated radiation fields during the first billion years

Understanding the epochs of cosmic dawn and reionisation requires us to leverage multi-wavelength and multi-tracer observations, with each dataset providing a complimentary piece of the puzzle. To interpret such data, we update the public simulation code, 21cmFASTv4, to include a discrete source model based on stochastic sampling of conditional mass functions and semi-empirical galaxy relations. We demonstrate that our new galaxy model, which parametrizes the means and scatters of well-established scaling relations, is flexible enough to characterize very different predictions from hydrodynamic cosmological simulations of high-redshift galaxies. Combining a discrete galaxy population with approximate, efficient radiative transfer allows us to self-consistently forward-model galaxy surveys, line intensity maps (LIMs), and observations of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Not only does each observable probe different scales and physical processes, but cross-correlation will maximise the information gained from each measurement by probing the galaxy-IGM connection at high-redshift. We find that a stochastic source field produces significant shot-noise in 21cm and LIM power spectra. Scatter in galaxy properties can be constrained using UV luminosity functions and/or 21cm power spectra, especially if astrophysical scatter is higher than expected (as might be needed to explain recent JWST observations). Our modelling pipeline is both flexible and computationally efficient, facilitating high-dimensional, multi-tracer, field-level Bayesian inference of cosmology and astrophysics during the first billion years.

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arXiv2025

SKA-ESO Synergies for the Epoch of Reionization and Cosmic Dawn

Mapping out the first billion years using the 21-cm line with the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) will revolutionize our understanding of the cosmic dawn, reionization and the galaxies that drove these milestones. However, synergies with other telescopes in the form of cross correlations will be fundamental in making and confirming initial, low signal-to-noise claims of a detection. Participants of the 2023 European Southern Observatory (ESO) - SKA Observatory workshop discussed such synergies for Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and Cosmic Dawn (CD) science. Here we highlight some of the most promising candidates for cross-correlating SKA EoR/CD observations with ESO instruments such as the Multi-Object Optical and Near-infrared Spectrograph (MOONS), the MOSAIC multi-object spectrograph, and the ArmazoNes high Dispersion Echelle Spectrograph (ANDES).

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arXiv2025

Detecting galaxy-21-cm cross-correlation during reionization

The cosmic 21-cm signal promises to revolutionize studies of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Radio interferometers are aiming for a preliminary, low signal-to-noise (S/N) detection of the 21-cm power spectrum. Cross-correlating 21-cm with galaxies will be especially useful in these efforts, providing both a sanity check for initial 21-cm detection claims and potentially increasing the S/N due to uncorrelated residual systematics. Here we self-consistently simulate large-scale (1 Gpc) galaxy and 21-cm fields, computing their cross-power spectra for various choices of instruments as well as survey properties. We use 1080h observations with SKA-low AA* and HERA-350 as our benchmark 21-cm observations. We create mock Lyman alpha narrow-band, slitless and slit spectroscopic surveys, using benchmarks from instruments such as Subaru HyperSupremeCam, Roman grism, VLT MOONS, ELT MOSAIC, and JWST NIRCam. We forecast the resulting S/N of the galaxy-21-cm cross power spectrum, varying the galaxy survey area, depth and level of 21-cm foreground contamination for each pair of instruments. We find that the highest S/N is achievable through slitless, wide-area spectroscopic surveys, with the proposed Roman HLS survey resulting in a 55$\sigma$ detection of the cross power with 21-cm as observed with SKA-low AA* for our fiducial model. Narrow-band dropout surveys are unlikely to result in a detectable cross-power, due to their poor redshift localization. Slit spectroscopy can provide a high S/N detection of the cross power for SKA-low AA* observations. Specifically, the planned MOONRISE survey with MOONS on the VLT can result in a 3$\sigma$ detection, while a survey of comparable observing time using MOSAIC on the ELT can result in a 4$\sigma$ detection. Our results can be used to guide survey strategies, facilitating the detection of the galaxy-21-cm cross power spectrum.

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arXiv2025

Mapping reionization bubbles in the JWST era II: inferring the position and characteristic size of individual bubbles

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is discovering an increasing number of galaxies well into the early stages of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Many of these galaxies are clustered with strong Lyman alpha (Ly$\alpha$) emission, motivating the presence of surrounding cosmic HII regions that would facilitate Ly$\alpha$ transmission through the intergalactic medium (IGM). Detecting these HII "bubbles" would allow us to connect their growth to the properties of the galaxies inside them. Here we develop a new forward-modeling framework to estimate the local HII region size and location from Ly$\alpha$ spectra of galaxy groups in the early stages of the EoR. Our model takes advantage of the complementary information provided by neighboring sightlines through the IGM. Our forward models sample the main sources of uncertainty, including: (i) the global neutral fraction; (ii) EoR morphology; (iii) emergent Ly$\alpha$ emission; and (iv) NIRSpec instrument noise. Depending on the availability of complementary nebular lines, $\sim$ 0.006 $\unicode{x2013}$ 0.01 galaxies per cMpc$^3$, are required to be $\gtrsim$95\% confident that the HII bubble location and size recovered by our method is accurate to within $\sim$ 1 comoving Mpc. This corresponds roughly to tens of galaxies at $z\sim7\unicode{x2013}8$ in $\sim$2x2 tiled pointing with JWST NIRSpec. Such a sample is achievable with a targeted survey with completeness down to $M_{\rm UV}^{\rm min}\lesssim$ -19 $\unicode{x2013}$ -17, depending on the over-density of the field. We test our method on 3D EoR simulations as well as misspecified equivalent width distributions, in both cases accurately recovering the HII region surrounding targeted galaxy groups.

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arXiv2025

Global 21 cm signal: a promising probe of primordial features

Inflationary models that involve bursts of particle production generate bump-like features in the primordial power spectrum of density perturbations. These features influence the evolution of density fluctuations, leaving their unique signatures in cosmological observations. A detailed investigation of such signatures would help constrain physical processes during inflation. With this motivation, the goal of this paper is two-fold. First, we conduct a detailed analysis of the effects of bump-like primordial features on the sky-averaged 21 cm signal. Using semi-numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the primordial features can significantly alter the ionization history and the global 21 cm profile, making them a promising probe of inflationary models. We found a special scale (namely, the turnover wavenumber, $k^{\rm turn}$) at which the effect of primordial bump-like features on the global 21 cm profile vanishes. Also, we found that the behaviour of the primordial features on the global profile and ionization history are quite opposite for $k > k^{\rm turn}$ and $k < k^{\rm turn}$. We trace the root cause of these behaviours to the effects of primordial features on the halo mass function at high redshifts. Furthermore, we discuss the degeneracy between the astrophysical parameters and the primordial features in detail. Secondly, for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, we derive upper limits on the amplitude of bump-like features in the range $10^{-1} < k\,[{\rm Mpc}^{-1}] < 10^2$ using current limits on optical depth to reionization from CMB data by Planck.

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arXiv2024

Percent-level timing of reionization: self-consistent, implicit-likelihood inference from XQR-30+ Ly$\alpha$ forest data

The Lyman alpha (Lya) forest in the spectra of z>5 quasars provides a powerful probe of the late stages of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). With the recent advent of exquisite datasets such as XQR-30, many models have struggled to reproduce the observed large-scale fluctuations in the Lya opacity. Here we introduce a Bayesian analysis framework that forward-models large-scale lightcones of IGM properties, and accounts for unresolved sub-structure in the Lya opacity by calibrating to higher-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Our models directly connect physically-intuitive galaxy properties with the corresponding IGM evolution, without having to tune "effective" parameters or calibrate out the mean transmission. The forest data, in combination with UV luminosity functions and the CMB optical depth, are able to constrain global IGM properties at percent level precision in our fiducial model. Unlike many other works, we recover the forest observations without evoking a rapid drop in the ionizing emissivity from z~7 to 5.5, which we attribute to our sub-grid model for recombinations. In this fiducial model, reionization ends at $z=5.44\pm0.02$ and the EoR mid-point is at $z=7.7\pm0.1$. The ionizing escape fraction increases towards faint galaxies, showing a mild redshift evolution at fixed UV magnitude, Muv. Half of the ionizing photons are provided by galaxies fainter than Muv~-12, well below direct detection limits of optical/NIR instruments including JWST. We also show results from an alternative galaxy model that does not allow for a redshift evolution in the ionizing escape fraction. Despite being decisively disfavored by the Bayesian evidence, the posterior of this model is in qualitative agreement with that from our fiducial model. We caution however that our conclusions regarding the early stages of the EoR and which sources reionized the Universe are more model-dependent.

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arXiv2024

Impacts and Statistical Mitigation of Missing Data on the 21cm Power Spectrum: A Case Study with the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array

The precise characterization and mitigation of systematic effects is one of the biggest roadblocks impeding the detection of the fluctuations of cosmological 21cm signals. Missing data in radio cosmological experiments, often due to radio frequency interference (RFI), poses a particular challenge to power spectrum analysis as it could lead to the ringing of bright foreground modes in Fourier space, heavily contaminating the cosmological signals. Here we show that the problem of missing data becomes even more arduous in the presence of systematic effects. Using a realistic numerical simulation, we demonstrate that partially flagged data combined with systematic effects can introduce significant foreground ringing. We show that such an effect can be mitigated through inpainting the missing data. We present a rigorous statistical framework that incorporates the process of inpainting missing data into a quadratic estimator of the 21cm power spectrum. Under this framework, the uncertainties associated with our inpainting method and its impact on power spectrum statistics can be understood. These results are applied to the latest Phase II observations taken by the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array, forming a crucial component in power spectrum analyses as we move toward detecting 21cm signals in the ever more noisy RFI environment.

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