arXiv subjects

Andrew Fowlie

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Fowlie.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Collider constraints on electroweakinos in the presence of a light gravitino

Using the GAMBIT global fitting framework, we constrain the MSSM with an eV-scale gravitino as the lightest supersymmetric particle, and the six electroweakinos (neutralinos and charginos) as the only other light new states. We combine 15 ATLAS and 12 CMS searches at 13\,TeV, along with a large collection of ATLAS and CMS measurements of Standard Model signatures. This model, which we refer to as the $\tilde G$-EWMSSM, exhibits quite varied collider phenomenology due to its many permitted electroweakino production processes and decay modes. Characteristic $\tilde G$-EWMSSM signal events have two or more Standard Model bosons and missing energy due to the escaping gravitinos. While much of the $\tilde G$-EWMSSM parameter space is excluded, we find several viable parameter regions that predict phenomenologically rich scenarios with multiple neutralinos and charginos within the kinematic reach of the LHC during Run 3, or the High Luminosity LHC. In particular, we identify scenarios with Higgsino-dominated electroweakinos as light as 140 GeV that are consistent with our combined set of collider searches and measurements. The full set of $\tilde G$-EWMSSM parameter samples and GAMBIT input files generated for this work is available via Zenodo.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2023

Hadronic Uncertainties versus New Physics for the $W$ boson Mass and Muon $g-2$ Anomalies

There are now two single measurements of precision observables that have major anomalies in the Standard Model: the recent CDF measurement of the $W$ mass shows a $7σ$ deviation and the Muon $g-2$ experiment at FNAL confirmed a long-standing anomaly, implying a $4.2 σ$ deviation. Doubts regarding new physics interpretations of these anomalies could stem from uncertainties in the common hadronic contributions. We demonstrate that these two anomalies pull the hadronic contributions in opposite directions by performing electroweak fits in which the hadronic contribution was allowed to float. The fits show that including the $g - 2$ measurement worsens the tension with the CDF measurement and conversely that adjustments that alleviate the CDF tension worsen the $g-2$ tension beyond $5 σ$. This means that if we adopt the CDF $W$ mass measurement, the case for new physics in either the $W$ mass or muon $g-2$ is inescapable regardless of the size of the SM hadronic contributions. Lastly, we demonstrate that a mixed scalar leptoquark extension of the Standard Model could explain both anomalies simultaneously.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2022

Nested sampling statistical errors

Nested sampling (NS) is a popular algorithm for Bayesian computation. We investigate statistical errors in NS both analytically and numerically. We show two analytic results. First, we show that the leading terms in Skilling's expression using information theory match the leading terms in Keeton's expression from an analysis of moments. This approximate agreement was previously only known numerically and was somewhat mysterious. Second, we show that the uncertainty in single NS runs approximately equals the standard deviation in repeated NS runs. Whilst intuitive, this was previously taken for granted. We close by investigating our results and their assumptions in several numerical examples, including cases in which NS uncertainties increase without bound.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Global fits of SUSY at future Higgs factories

In this work, we study the impact of electroweak and Higgs precision measurements at future electron-positron colliders on several typical supersymmetric models, including the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations (NUHM1, NUHM2), and the 7-dimensional Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM7). Using publicly-available data from the \textsf{GAMBIT} community, we post-process previous SUSY global fits with additional likelihoods to explore the discovery potential of Higgs factories, such as the Circular Electron Positron Collider (CEPC), the Future Circular Collider (FCC) and the International Linear Collider (ILC). We show that the currently allowed parameter space of these models will be further tested by future precision measurements. In particular, dark matter annihilation mechanisms may be distinguished by precise measurements of Higgs observables.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2022

Nested sampling for physical scientists

We review Skilling's nested sampling (NS) algorithm for Bayesian inference and more broadly multi-dimensional integration. After recapitulating the principles of NS, we survey developments in implementing efficient NS algorithms in practice in high-dimensions, including methods for sampling from the so-called constrained prior. We outline the ways in which NS may be applied and describe the application of NS in three scientific fields in which the algorithm has proved to be useful: cosmology, gravitational-wave astronomy, and materials science. We close by making recommendations for best practice when using NS and by summarizing potential limitations and optimizations of NS.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2022

Objective Bayesian approach to the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox

We consider the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox from an objective Bayesian perspective by attempting to find priors representing complete indifference to sample size in the problem. This means that we ensure that the prior for the unknown mean and the prior predictive for the $t$-statistic are independent of the sample size. If successful, this would lead to Bayesian model comparison that was independent of sample size and ameliorate the paradox. Unfortunately, it leads to an improper scale-invariant prior for the unknown mean. We show, however, that a truncated scale-invariant prior delays the dependence on sample size, which could be practically significant. Lastly, we shed light on the paradox by relating it to the fact that the scale-invariant prior is improper.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4322283.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2022

Comment on "Accumulating Evidence for the Associate Production of a Neutral Scalar with Mass around 151 GeV"

A recent paper [2109.02650] accumulates evidence for a new fundamental particle by combining several CMS and ATLAS searches for the Standard Model Higgs boson. The putative particle is a neutral scalar, $S$, with a mass of about 151 GeV. The reported significances are $5.1σ$ local and $4.8σ$ global. This nearly reaches the $5σ$ threshold for a discovery in high-energy physics. In this brief note we cast doubt on the strength of the evidence for a new particle. After taking into account the fact that signals were fitted to six different channels, we find that the significances are only $4.1σ$ local and $3.5σ$ global. The code and instructions for reproducing our calculations are available at https://github.com/andrewfowlie/accumulating_evidence.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2022

Nested sampling for frequentist computation: fast estimation of small $p$-values

We propose a novel method for computing $p$-values based on nested sampling (NS) applied to the sampling space rather than the parameter space of the problem, in contrast to its usage in Bayesian computation. The computational cost of NS scales as $\log^2{1/p}$, which compares favorably to the $1/p$ scaling for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. For significances greater than about $4σ$ in both a toy problem and a simplified resonance search, we show that NS requires orders of magnitude fewer simulations than ordinary MC estimates. This is particularly relevant for high-energy physics, which adopts a $5σ$ gold standard for discovery. We conclude with remarks on new connections between Bayesian and frequentist computation and possibilities for tuning NS implementations for still better performance in this setting.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2021

Thermal WIMPs and the Scale of New Physics: Global Fits of Dirac Dark Matter Effective Field Theories

We assess the status of a wide class of WIMP dark matter (DM) models in light of the latest experimental results using the global fitting framework $\textsf{GAMBIT}$. We perform a global analysis of effective field theory (EFT) operators describing the interactions between a gauge-singlet Dirac fermion and the Standard Model quarks, the gluons and the photon. In this bottom-up approach, we simultaneously vary the coefficients of 14 such operators up to dimension 7, along with the DM mass, the scale of new physics and several nuisance parameters. Our likelihood functions include the latest data from $\mathit{Planck}$, direct and indirect detection experiments, and the LHC. For DM masses below 100 GeV, we find that it is impossible to satisfy all constraints simultaneously while maintaining EFT validity at LHC energies. For new physics scales around 1 TeV, our results are influenced by several small excesses in the LHC data and depend on the prescription that we adopt to ensure EFT validity. Furthermore, we find large regions of viable parameter space where the EFT is valid and the relic density can be reproduced, implying that WIMPs can still account for the DM of the universe while being consistent with the latest data.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

Neyman-Pearson lemma for Bayes factors

We point out that the Neyman-Pearson lemma applies to Bayes factors if we consider expected type-1 and type-2 error rates. That is, the Bayes factor is the test statistic that maximises the expected power for a fixed expected type-1 error rate. For Bayes factors involving a simple null hypothesis, the expected type-1 error rate is just the completely frequentist type-1 error rate. Lastly we remark on connections between the Karlin-Rubin theorem and uniformly most powerful tests, and Bayes factors. This provides frequentist motivations for computing the Bayes factor and could help reconcile Bayesians and frequentists.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Publishing statistical models: Getting the most out of particle physics experiments

The statistical models used to derive the results of experimental analyses are of incredible scientific value and are essential information for analysis preservation and reuse. In this paper, we make the scientific case for systematically publishing the full statistical models and discuss the technical developments that make this practical. By means of a variety of physics cases -- including parton distribution functions, Higgs boson measurements, effective field theory interpretations, direct searches for new physics, heavy flavor physics, direct dark matter detection, world averages, and beyond the Standard Model global fits -- we illustrate how detailed information on the statistical modelling can enhance the short- and long-term impact of experimental results.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

Comment on "Reproducibility and Replication of Experimental Particle Physics Results"

I would like to thank Junk and Lyons (arXiv:2009.06864) for beginning a discussion about replication in high-energy physics (HEP). Junk and Lyons ultimately argue that HEP learned its lessons the hard way through past failures and that other fields could learn from our procedures. They emphasize that experimental collaborations would risk their legacies were they to make a type-1 error in a search for new physics and outline the vigilance taken to avoid one, such as data blinding and a strict $5σ$ threshold. The discussion, however, ignores an elephant in the room: there are regularly anomalies in searches for new physics that result in substantial scientific activity but don't replicate with more data.

physics.data-an↗

arXiv2021

Global fits of axion-like particles to XENON1T and astrophysical data

The excess of electron recoil events seen by the XENON1T experiment has been interpreted as a potential signal of axion-like particles (ALPs), either produced in the Sun, or constituting part of the dark matter halo of the Milky Way. It has also been explained as a consequence of trace amounts of tritium in the experiment. We consider the evidence for the solar and dark-matter ALP hypotheses from the combination of XENON1T data and multiple astrophysical probes, including horizontal branch stars, red giants, and white dwarfs. We briefly address the influence of ALP decays and supernova cooling. While the different datasets are in clear tension for the case of solar ALPs, all measurements can be simultaneously accommodated for the case of a sub-dominant fraction of dark-matter ALPs. Nevertheless, this solution requires the tuning of several a priori unknown parameters, such that for our choices of priors a Bayesian analysis shows no strong preference for the ALP interpretation of the XENON1T excess over the background hypothesis.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2021

A comparison of optimisation algorithms for high-dimensional particle and astrophysics applications

Optimisation problems are ubiquitous in particle and astrophysics, and involve locating the optimum of a complicated function of many parameters that may be computationally expensive to evaluate. We describe a number of global optimisation algorithms that are not yet widely used in particle astrophysics, benchmark them against random sampling and existing techniques, and perform a detailed comparison of their performance on a range of test functions. These include four analytic test functions of varying dimensionality, and a realistic example derived from a recent global fit of weak-scale supersymmetry. Although the best algorithm to use depends on the function being investigated, we are able to present general conclusions about the relative merits of random sampling, Differential Evolution, Particle Swarm Optimisation, the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy, Bayesian Optimisation, Grey Wolf Optimisation, and the PyGMO Artificial Bee Colony, Gaussian Particle Filter and Adaptive Memory Programming for Global Optimisation algorithms.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2021

Nested sampling with plateaus

It was recently emphasised by Riley (2019); Schittenhelm & Wacker (2020) that that in the presence of plateaus in the likelihood function nested sampling (NS) produces faulty estimates of the evidence and posterior densities. After informally explaining the cause of the problem, we present a modified version of NS that handles plateaus and can be applied retrospectively to NS runs from popular NS software using anesthetic. In the modified NS, live points in a plateau are evicted one by one without replacement, with ordinary NS compression of the prior volume after each eviction but taking into account the dynamic number of live points. The live points are replenished once all points in the plateau are removed. We demonstrate it on a number of examples. Since the modification is simple, we propose that it becomes the canonical version of Skilling's NS algorithm.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2020

Nested sampling cross-checks using order statistics

Nested sampling (NS) is an invaluable tool in data analysis in modern astrophysics, cosmology, gravitational wave astronomy and particle physics. We identify a previously unused property of NS related to order statistics: the insertion indexes of new live points into the existing live points should be uniformly distributed. This observation enabled us to create a novel cross-check of single NS runs. The tests can detect when an NS run failed to sample new live points from the constrained prior and plateaus in the likelihood function, which break an assumption of NS and thus leads to unreliable results. We applied our cross-check to NS runs on toy functions with known analytic results in 2 - 50 dimensions, showing that our approach can detect problematic runs on a variety of likelihoods, settings and dimensions. As an example of a realistic application, we cross-checked NS runs performed in the context of cosmological model selection. Since the cross-check is simple, we recommend that it become a mandatory test for every applicable NS run.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2020

Global analyses of Higgs portal singlet dark matter models using GAMBIT

We present global analyses of effective Higgs portal dark matter models in the frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. Complementing earlier studies of the scalar Higgs portal, we use GAMBIT to determine the preferred mass and coupling ranges for models with vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion dark matter. We also assess the relative plausibility of all four models using Bayesian model comparison. Our analysis includes up-to-date likelihood functions for the dark matter relic density, invisible Higgs decays, and direct and indirect searches for weakly-interacting dark matter including the latest XENON1T data. We also account for important uncertainties arising from the local density and velocity distribution of dark matter, nuclear matrix elements relevant to direct detection, and Standard Model masses and couplings. In all Higgs portal models, we find parameter regions that can explain all of dark matter and give a good fit to all data. The case of vector dark matter requires the most tuning and is therefore slightly disfavoured from a Bayesian point of view. In the case of fermionic dark matter, we find a strong preference for including a CP-violating phase that allows suppression of constraints from direct detection experiments, with odds in favour of CP violation of the order of 100:1. Finally, we present DDCalc 2.0.0, a tool for calculating direct detection observables and likelihoods for arbitrary non-relativistic effective operators.

hep-ph↗