arXiv subjects

Andrew Fowlie

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Fowlie.

64 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

The little-hierarchy problem is a little problem: understanding the difference between the big- and little-hierarchy problems with Bayesian probability

Experiments are once again under way at the LHC. This time around, however, the mood in the high-energy physics community is pessimistic. There is a growing suspicion that naturalness arguments that predict new physics near the weak scale are faulty and that prospects for a new discovery are limited. We argue that such doubts originate from a misunderstanding of the foundations of naturalness arguments. In spite of the first run at the LHC, which aggravated the little-hierarchy problem, there is no cause for doubting naturalness or natural theories. Naturalness is grounded in Bayesian probability logic - it is not a scientific theory and it makes no sense to claim that it could be falsified or that it is under pressure from experimental data. We should remain optimistic about discovery prospects; natural theories, such as supersymmetry, generally predict new physics close to the weak scale. Furthermore, from a Bayesian perspective, we briefly discuss 't Hooft's technical naturalness and a contentious claim that the little-hierarchy problem hints that the Standard Model is a fundamental theory.

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arXiv2015

Examining a right-handed quark mixing matrix with $b$-tags at the LHC

Encouraged by a hint in a search for right-handed $W$ bosons at the LHC, we investigate whether the unitarity of a right-handed quark mixing matrix and the equality of the left- and right-handed quark mixing matrices could be tested at the LHC. We propose a particular test, involving counting the numbers of $b$-tags in the final state, and simulate the test at the event level with Monte-Carlo tools for the forthcoming $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV LHC run. We find that testing unitarity with 20/fb will be challenging; our test successfully rejects unitarity if the right-handed quark mixing matrix is non-unitary, but only in particular cases. On the other hand, our test may provide the first opportunity to test the unitarity of a right-handed quark mixing matrix and with 3000/fb severely constrains possible departures from unitarity in the latter. We refine our previous work, testing the equality of quark mixing matrices, with full collider simulation. With 20/fb, we are sensitive to mixing angles as small as $30^\circ$, and with 3000/fb, angles as small as $7.5^\circ$, confirming our preliminary analysis. We briefly investigate testing the unitarity of the SM CKM matrix with a similar method by studying semileptonic $t\bar t$ production, concluding that systematics make it particularly difficult.

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arXiv2014

Reconstructing CMSSM parameters at the LHC with $\sqrt{s}=14$ TeV via the golden decay channel

We identify a benchmark point in the CMSSM's heavy stau-coannihilation region, which is favored by experiments, and demonstrate that it could be accessible to the LHC at $\sqrt{s}=14$ TeV with 300/fb of integrated luminosity via a golden decay measurement. With Monte-Carlo, we simulate sparticle production and subsequent golden decay at the event level and perform pseudo-measurements of sparticle masses from kinematic endpoints in invariant mass distributions. We find that two lightest neutralino masses and the first and second generation left-handed slepton and squark masses could be rather precisely measured with correlated uncertainties. We investigate whether from such measurements one could determine the CMSSM's Lagrangian parameters by including a likelihood from our pseudo-measurements of sparticle masses in a Bayesian analysis of the CMSSM's parameter space. We find that the CMSSM's parameters can be accurately determined, with the exception of the common trilinear parameter. Experimental measurements of the relic density by Planck and the Higgs boson's mass slightly improve this determination, especially for the common trilinear parameter. Finally, within our benchmark scenario, we show that the neutralino dark matter will be accessible to direct searches in future one tonne detectors.

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arXiv2014

Testing quark mixing in minimal left-right symmetric models with $b$-tags at the LHC

Motivated by a hint in a CMS search for right-handed $W$-bosons in $eejj$ final states, we propose an experimental test of quark-mixing matrices in a general left-right symmetric model, based on counting the numbers of $b$-tags from right-handed $W$-boson hadronic decays. We find that, with our test, differences between left- and right-handed quark-mixing matrices could be detected at the LHC with $\sqrt{s}=14$ TeV. With an integrated luminosity of about $20/\textrm{fb}$, our test is sensitive to right-handed quark-mixing angles as small as about $30^\circ$ and with $3000/\textrm{fb}$, our test's sensitivity improves to right-handed mixing angles as small as about $7.5^\circ$. Our test's sensitivity might be further enhanced by tuning $b$-tagging efficiency against purity.

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arXiv2014

Prospects for constrained supersymmetry at $\sqrt{s}=33$ TeV and $\sqrt{s}=100$ TeV proton-proton super-colliders

Discussions are underway for a high-energy proton-proton collider. Two preliminary ideas are the $\sqrt{s}=33$ TeV HE-LHC and the $\sqrt{s}=100$ TeV VLHC. With Bayesian statistics, we calculate the probabilities that the LHC, HE-LHC and VLHC discover SUSY in the future, assuming that nature is described by the CMSSM and given the experimental data from the LHC, LUX and Planck. We find that the LHC with $300$/fb at $\sqrt{s}=14$ TeV has a $15$-$75%$ probability of discovering SUSY. Should that run fail to discover SUSY, the probability of discovering SUSY with $3000$/fb is merely $1$-$10%$. Were SUSY to remain undetected at the LHC, the HE-LHC would have a $35$-$85%$ probability of discovering SUSY with $3000$/fb. The VLHC, on the other hand, ought to be definitive; the probability of it discovering SUSY, assuming that the CMSSM is the correct model, is $100%$.

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arXiv2014

Is the CNMSSM more credible than the CMSSM?

With Bayesian statistics, we investigate the full parameter space of the constrained "next-to-minimal" supersymmetric Standard Model (CNMSSM) with naturalness priors, which were derived in a previous work. In the past, most Bayesian analyses of the CNMSSM ignored naturalness of the electroweak (EW) scale by making prejudicial assumptions for parameters defined at the EW scale. We test the CNMSSM against the CMSSM with Bayesian evidence, which, with naturalness priors, incorporates a penalty for fine-tuning of the EW scale. With the evidence, we measure credibility with respect to all measurements, including the EW scale and LHC direct searches. We find that the evidence in favor of the CNMSSM versus the CMSSM is "positive" to "strong" but that if one ignores the $μ$-problem, the evidence is "barely worth mentioning" to "positive." The $μ$-problem significantly influences our findings. Unless one considers the $μ$-problem, the evidence in favor of the CNMSSM versus the CMSSM is at best "positive," which is two grades below "very strong." We, furthermore, identify the most probable regions of the CMSSM and CNMSSM parameter spaces and examine prospects for future discovery at hadron colliders.

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arXiv2014

CMSSM, naturalness and the "fine-tuning price" of the Very Large Hadron Collider

The absence of supersymmetry or other new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has lead many to question naturalness arguments. With Bayesian statistics, we argue that natural models are most probable and that naturalness is not merely an aesthetic principle. We calculate a probabilistic measure of naturalness, the Bayesian evidence, for the Standard Model (SM) with and without quadratic divergences, confirming that the SM with quadratic divergences is improbable. We calculate the Bayesian evidence for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) with naturalness priors in three cases: with only the $M_Z$ measurement; with the $M_Z$ measurement and LHC measurements; and with the $M_Z$ measurement, $m_h$ measurement and a hypothetical null result from a $\sqrt{s}=100\,\text{TeV}$ Very Large Hadron Collider (VLHC) with $3000/\text{fb}$. The "fine-tuning price" of the VLHC given LHC results would be $\sim400$, which is slightly less than that of the LHC results given the electroweak scale ($\sim500$).

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arXiv2013

Dark matter and collider signatures of the MSSM

We explore the MSSM with 9 free parameters (p9MSSM) that have been selected as a minimum set that allows an investigation of neutralino dark matter and collider signatures while maintaining consistency with several constraints. These include measurement of the dark matter relic density from PLANCK, main properties of the discovered Higgs boson, LHC direct SUSY searches, recent evidence for a Standard Model-like BR(Bs -> μ+ μ-), and the measurement of δ(g-2), plus a number of other electroweak and flavor physics constraints. We perform a simulation of two LHC direct SUSY searches at sqrt(s)=8 TeV: the CMS inclusive α_T search for squarks and gluinos and the CMS electroweak production search with 3l+E_T^miss in the final state. We use the latter to identify the regions of the parameter space, consistent at 2σ with δ(g-2), that are not excluded by the direct limits from the electroweak production. We find that they correspond to a neutralino mass in the window 200 GeV<m_χ<500 GeV. We also implement the likelihood for the XENON100 exclusion bound, in which we consider for the first time the impact of a recent determination of the Σ_{πN} term from CHAOS data, Σ_{πN}=43\pm12 MeV. We show that in light of this measurement, the present statistical impact of the XENON100 bound is greatly reduced, although future sensitivities of the LUX and XENON1T experiments will have decisive impact on the mixed bino/higgsino composition of the neutralino. We point out some tension between the constraints from δ(g-2) and XENON100. Finally, we present prospects for various indirect searches of dark matter, namely γ-ray fluxes from dSphs and the Galactic Center at Fermi-LAT, and the positron flux at AMS02. We also show the 5-year sensitivity on the spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross section due to neutrino fluxes from the Sun at IceCube.

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arXiv2012

Constrained MSSM favoring new territories: The impact of new LHC limits and a 125 GeV Higgs boson

We present an updated and extended global analysis of the Constrained MSSM (CMSSM) taking into account new limits on supersymmetry from ~5/fb data sets at the LHC. In particular, in the case of the razor limit obtained by the CMS Collaboration we simulate detector efficiency for the experimental analysis and derive an approximate but accurate likelihood function. We discuss the impact on the global fit of a possible Higgs boson with mass near 125 GeV, as implied by recent data, and of a new improved limit on BR(B_s->μμ). We identify high posterior probability regions of the CMSSM parameters as the stau-coannihilation and the A-funnel region, with the importance of the latter now being much larger due to the combined effect of the above three LHC results and of dark matter relic density. We also find that the focus point region is now disfavored. Ensuing implications for superpartner masses favor even larger values than before, and even lower ranges for dark matter spin-independent cross section, σ^{SI}_p<10^{-9} pb. We also find that relatively minor variations in applying experimental constraints can induce a large shift in the location of the best-fit point. This puts into question the robustness of applying the usual chisquare approach to the CMSSM. We discuss the goodness-of-fit and find that, while it is difficult to calculate a p-value, the g-2 constraint makes, nevertheless, the overall fit of the CMSSM poor. We consider a scan without this constraint, and we allow μ to be either positive or negative. We find that the global fit improves enormously for both signs of μ, with a slight preference for μ<0 caused by a better fit to BR(b->sγ) and BR(B_s->μμ).

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arXiv2012

Bayesian Implications of Current LHC and XENON100 Search Limits for the Constrained MSSM

The CMS Collaboration has released the results of its search for supersymmetry, by applying an alphaT method to 1.1/fb of data at 7 TeV. The null result excludes (at 95% CL) a low-mass region of the Constrained MSSM's parameter space that was previously favored by other experiments. Additionally, the negative result of the XENON100 dark matter search has excluded (at 90% CL) values of the spin-independent scattering cross sections sigma^SI_p as low as 10^-8 pb. We incorporate these improved experimental constraints into a global Bayesian fit of the Constrained MSSM by constructing approximate likelihood functions. In the case of the alphaT limit, we simulate detector efficiency for the CMS alphaT 1.1/fb and validate our method against the official 95% CL contour. We identify the 68% and 95% credible posterior regions of the CMSSM parameters, and also find the best-fit point. We find that the credible regions change considerably once a likelihood from alphaT is included, in particular the narrow light Higgs resonance region becomes excluded, but the focus point/horizontal branch region remains allowed at the 1sigma level. Adding the limit from XENON100 has a weaker additional effect, in part due to large uncertainties in evaluating sigma^SI_p, which we include in a conservative way, although we find that it reduces the posterior probability of the focus point region to the 2sigma level. The new regions of high posterior favor squarks lighter than the gluino and all but one Higgs bosons heavy. The dark matter neutralino mass is found in the range 250 GeV <~ m_Chi1 <~ 343 GeV (at 1sigma) while, as the result of improved limits from the LHC, the favored range of sigma^SI_p is pushed down to values below 10^{-9} pb. We highlight tension between (g-2)_mu and BR(b->sg), which is exacerbated by including the alphaT limit; each constraint favors a different region of the CMSSM's mass parameters.

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