arXiv subjects

Andrew J. Whalen

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew J. Whalen.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Verification of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts of Precipitation Using Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Africa

Rainfall is an important variable to be able to monitor and forecast across Africa, due to its impact on agriculture, food security, climate related diseases and public health. Numerical Weather Models (NWM) are an important component of this work, due to their complete spatial coverage, high resolution, and ability to forecast into the future. In this study, we seek to evaluate the spatiotemporal skill of short-term rainfall forecasts of rainfall across Africa. Specifically, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) forecast models are verified by Rainfall Estimates 2.0 (RFE2) and African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2), which are fused products of satellite and in-situ observations and are commonly used in analysis of African rainfall. We found that the model rainfall forecasts show good consistency with the satellite rainfall observations in spatial distribution over Africa on the seasonal timescale. Evaluation metrics show high spatial and seasonal variations over the African continent, including a strong link to the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and topographically enhanced precipitation. The rainfall forecasts at one week aggregation time are improved against daily forecasts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

A Generalized Unscented Transformation for Probability Distributions

The unscented transform uses a weighted set of samples called sigma points to propagate the means and covariances of nonlinear transformations of random variables. However, unscented transforms developed using either the Gaussian assumption or a minimum set of sigma points typically fall short when the random variable is not Gaussian distributed and the nonlinearities are substantial. In this paper, we develop the generalized unscented transform (GenUT), which uses 2n+1 sigma points to accurately capture up to the diagonal components of the skewness and kurtosis tensors of most probability distributions. Constraints can be analytically enforced on the sigma points while guaranteeing at least second-order accuracy. The GenUT uses the same number of sigma points as the original unscented transform while also being applicable to non-Gaussian distributions, including the assimilation of observations in the modeling of infectious diseases such as coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2014

Observability and Controllability of Nonlinear Networks: The Role of Symmetry

Observability and controllability are essential concepts to the design of predictive observer models and feedback controllers of networked systems. For example, noncontrollable mathematical models of real systems have subspaces that influence model behavior, but cannot be controlled by an input. Such subspaces can be difficult to determine in complex nonlinear networks. Since almost all of the present theory was developed for linear networks without symmetries, here we present a numerical and group representational framework, to quantify the observability and controllability of nonlinear networks with explicit symmetries that shows the connection between symmetries and nonlinear measures of observability and controllability. We numerically observe and theoretically predict that not all symmetries have the same effect on network observation and control. Our analysis shows that the presence of symmetry in a network may decrease observability and controllability, although networks containing only rotational symmetries remain controllable and observable. These results alter our view of the nature of observability and controllability in complex networks, change our understanding of structural controllability, and affect the design of mathematical models to observe and control such networks.

q-bio.NC↗