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Andrew L. Johnson

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew L. Johnson.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

Least Squares Estimation of a Quasiconvex Regression Function

We develop a new approach for the estimation of a multivariate function based on the economic axioms of quasiconvexity (and monotonicity). On the computational side, we prove the existence of the quasiconvex constrained least squares estimator (LSE) and provide a characterization of the function space to compute the LSE via a mixed integer quadratic programme. On the theoretical side, we provide finite sample risk bounds for the LSE via a sharp oracle inequality. Our results allow for errors to depend on the covariates and to have only two finite moments. We illustrate the superior performance of the LSE against some competing estimators via simulation. Finally, we use the LSE to estimate the production function for the Japanese plywood industry and the cost function for hospitals across the US.

stat.ME

An axiomatic nonparametric production function estimator: Modeling production in Japan's cardboard industry

We develop a new approach to estimate a production function based on the economic axioms of the Regular Ultra Passum law and convex non-homothetic input isoquants. Central to the development of our estimator is stating the axioms as shape constraints and using shape constrained nonparametric regression methods. We implement this approach using data from the Japanese corrugated cardboard industry from 1997-2007. Using this new approach, we find most productive scale size is a function of the capital-to-labor ratio and the largest firms operate close to the largest most productive scale size associated with a high capital-to-labor ratio. We measure the productivity growth across the panel periods based on the residuals from our axiomatic model. We also decompose productivity into scale, input mix, and unexplained effects to clarify the sources the productivity differences and provide managers guidance to make firms more productive.

stat.AP

Direction Selection in Stochastic Directional Distance Functions

Researchers rely on the distance function to model multiple product production using multiple inputs. A stochastic directional distance function (SDDF) allows for noise in potentially all input and output variables. Yet, when estimated, the direction selected will affect the functional estimates because deviations from the estimated function are minimized in the specified direction. The set of identified parameters of a parametric SDDF can be narrowed via data-driven approaches to restrict the directions considered. We demonstrate a similar narrowing of the identified parameter set for a shape constrained nonparametric method, where the shape constraints impose standard features of a cost function such as monotonicity and convexity. Our Monte Carlo simulation studies reveal significant improvements, as measured by out of sample radial mean squared error, in functional estimates when we use a directional distance function with an appropriately selected direction. From our Monte Carlo simulations we conclude that selecting a direction that is approximately orthogonal to the estimated function in the central region of the data gives significantly better estimates relative to the directions commonly used in the literature. For practitioners, our results imply that selecting a direction vector that has non-zero components for all variables that may have measurement error provides a significant improvement in the estimator's performance. We illustrate these results using cost and production data from samples of approximately 500 US hospitals per year operating in 2007, 2008, and 2009, respectively, and find that the shape constrained nonparametric methods provide a significant increase in flexibility over second order local approximation parametric methods.

stat.AP

Insights from Machine Learning for Evaluating Production Function Estimators on Manufacturing Survey Data

Organizations like U.S. Census Bureau rely on non-exhaustive surveys to estimate industry-level production functions in years in which a full Census is not conducted. When analyzing data from non-census years, we propose selecting an estimator based on a weighting of its in-sample and predictive performance. We compare Cobb-Douglas functional assumptions to existing nonparametric shape constrained estimators and a newly proposed estimator. For simulated data, we find that our proposed estimator has the lowest weighted errors. For actual data, specifically the 2010 Chilean Annual National Industrial Survey, a Cobb-Douglas specification describes at least 90\% as much variance as the best alternative estimators in practically all cases considered providing two insights: the benefits of using application data for selecting an estimator, and the benefits of structure in noisy data.

stat.AP

Shape constrained kernel-weighted least squares: Application to production function estimation for Chilean manufacturing industries

In this paper we examine a novel way of imposing shape constraints on a local polynomial kernel estimator. The proposed approach is referred to as Shape Constrained Kernel-weighted Least Squares (SCKLS). We prove uniform consistency of the SCKLS estimator with monotonicity and convexity/concavity constraints and establish its convergence rate. The competitiveness of SCKLS is shown in a comprehensive simulation study. Finally, we analyze Chilean manufacturing data using the SCKLS estimator and quantify production in the plastics and wood industries. The results show that exporting firms have significantly higher productivity.

stat.AP

Azetidinium Lead Iodide for Perovskite Solar Cells

Hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites have been established as good candidate materials for emerging photovoltaics, with device efficiencies of over 22 % being reported. There are currently only two organic cations, methylammonium and formamidinium, which produce 3D perovskites with band gaps suitable for photovoltaic devices. Numerous computational studies have identified azetidinium as a potential third cation for synthesizing organic-inorganic perovskites, but to date no experimental reports of azetidinium containing perovskites have been published. Here we prepare azetidinium lead iodide for the first time and show that it is a stable, bright orange material that can be successfully used as the absorber layer in solar cells. We also show that it is possible to make mixed cation devices by adding the azetidinium cation to methylammonium lead iodide. Mixed azetidinium-methylammonium cells show improved performance and reduced hysteresis compared to methylammonium lead iodide cells.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci

Estimating Stochastic Production Frontiers: A One-stage Multivariate Semi-Nonparametric Bayesian Concave Regression Method

This paper describes a method to estimate a production frontier that satisfies the axioms of monotonicity and concavity in a non-parametric Bayesian setting. An inefficiency term that allows for significant departure from prior distributional assumptions is jointly estimated in a single stage with parametric prior assumptions. We introduce heteroscedasticity into the inefficiency terms by local hyperplane-specific shrinkage hyperparameters and impose monotonicity using bound-constrained local nonlinear regression. Our minimum-of-hyperplanes estimator imposes concavity. Our Monte Carlo simulation experiments demonstrate that the frontier and efficiency estimations are competitive, economically sound, and allow for the analysis of larger datasets than existing nonparametric methods. We validate the proposed method using data from 2007-2010 for Japan's concrete industry. The results show that the efficiency levels remain relatively high over the time period.

stat.ME