arXiv subjects

Andrew Lincowski

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Lincowski.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Coupled Photochemical-Climate Modeling of Plausible Tenuous Outgassed Atmospheres on the TRAPPIST-1 Planets

Available JWST observations TRAPPIST-1 system have suggested that several of the planets are likely airless, or possess a very tenuous atmosphere. However, the high atmospheric escape rates expected for these planets suggest that any tenuous atmosphere must be replenished by constant outgassing, and past studies on modeling potential atmospheres for the planets have not widely considered surface pressures <1 bar. Here, we show that tenuous atmospheres on the TRAPPIST-1 planets are likely possible, supported by constant plausible rates of water and/or CO$_{2}$ outgassing against assumed high escape rates (up to ~10$^{30}$ s$^{-1}$). We use a coupled photochemical-climate model and sample from a broad phase space of outgassing, surface deposition, and top-of-atmosphere escape rates to test hundreds of atmospheres per planet. Critically, our model also allows surface pressure to vary based on the balance of sources and sinks. We find that 6 different compositional archetypes are generated via H$_{2}$O and/or CO$_{2}$ outgassing across our phase space, and atmospheres commonly fall between 10$^{-4}$ -- 1 bar. We find that potentially habitable surface environments are possible for TRAPPIST-1d and e at pressures between 0.05 -- 2 bar and 0.5 -- 1 bar, respectively. Where possible, we compare our models to JWST observational data for TRAPPIST-1b, c, d, and e; all atmospheres found in this study for these planets match available transmission data to <3$\sigma$. However, emission data are consistent with atmospheric outcomes constrained to thin O$_{2}$-dominated compositions for TRAPPIST-1b ($\lesssim$0.01 bars) and c ($\lesssim$0.2 bars), which may or may not contain trace SO$_{2}$.

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arXiv2026

The Third Option: Color Phase Curves to Characterize the Atmospheres of Temperate Rocky Exoplanets

Detecting and characterizing the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets has proven to be challenging for JWST. Transit spectroscopy of the TRAPPIST-1 planets has been impacted by the effects of spots and faculae on the host star. Secondary eclipses have detected hot rocks, but evidence for atmospheres has been difficult to obtain. However, there is a third option that we call color phase curves. This method will apply to synchronously rotating non-transiting planets as well as transiting planets. A color phase curve uses photometry at a long-IR wavelength where the planetary thermal emission is strong (e.g., 21 microns) divided by photometry at a shorter wavelength where the star dominates (e.g., 12 microns). We avoid wavelengths having potentially strong molecular absorption (e.g., 15 microns) to minimize degeneracies in the color phase curve, and we aim to detect and characterize the planetary atmosphere via its longitudinal heat transfer. The ratio of two wavelengths observed nearly simultaneously is designed to isolate thermal emission from the planet, discriminate against the star, and largely cancel instrumental systematic effects. Moreover, we show that invoking mass-radius relations, and using self-consistent physical models, will permit the longitudinal heat transfer to be measured independent of the orbital inclination. Radial velocity surveys are detecting many new exoplanets, including temperate rocky worlds with Earth-like masses. Most of those planets will not transit, but color phase curves have the potential to detect and characterize their atmospheres.

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arXiv2025

First JWST thermal phase curves of temperate terrestrial exoplanets reveal no thick atmosphere around TRAPPIST-1 b and c

We report JWST/MIRI 15 $\mu$m phase curves of TRAPPIST-1 b and c, revealing thermal emission consistent with their irradiation levels, assuming no efficient heat redistribution. We find that TRAPPIST-1 b shows a high dayside brightness temperature (490 $\pm$ 17 K), no significantly detectable nightside emission ($F_{\rm b, Night, max}$ = $39_{-27}^{+55}$ ppm), and no phase offset -- features consistent with a low-albedo, airless ultramafic rocky surface. TRAPPIST-1 c exhibits a lower dayside brightness temperature (369 $\pm$ 23 K), and a nightside flux statistically indistinguishable from that of TRAPPIST-1 b ($F_{\rm c, Night, max}$ = $62_{-43}^{+60}$ ppm). Atmosphere models with surface pressures $\geq$1 bar and efficient greenhouse effects are strongly disfavoured for both planets. TRAPPIST-1 b is unlikely to possess any substantial atmosphere, while TRAPPIST-1 c may retain a tenuous, greenhouse-poor O$_2$-dominated atmosphere or be similarly airless with a more reflective surface. These results suggest divergent evolutionary pathways or atmospheric loss processes, despite similar compositions. These measurements tightly constrain atmosphere retention in the inner TRAPPIST-1 system.

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arXiv2019

Impact of Clouds and Hazes on the Simulated JWST Transmission Spectra of Habitable Zone Planets in the TRAPPIST-1 System

The TRAPPIST-1 system, consisting of an ultra-cool host star having seven known Earth-size planets will be a prime target for atmospheric characterization with JWST. However, the detectability of atmospheric molecular species may be severely impacted by the presence of clouds and/or hazes. In this work, we perform 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with the LMD Generic model supplemented by 1-D photochemistry simulations at the terminator with the Atmos model to simulate several possible atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g: 1) modern Earth, 2) Archean Earth, and 3) CO2-rich atmospheres. JWST synthetic transit spectra were computed using the GSFC Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG). We find that TRAPPIST-1e, 1f and 1g atmospheres, with clouds and/or hazes, could be detected using JWST's NIRSpec prism from the CO2 absorption line at 4.3 um in less than 15 transits at 3 sigma or less than 35 transits at 5 sigma. However, our analysis suggests that other gases would require hundreds (or thousands) of transits to be detectable. We also find that H2O, mostly confined in the lower atmosphere, is very challenging to detect for these planets or similar systems if the planets' atmospheres are not in a moist greenhouse state. This result demonstrates that the use of GCMs, self-consistently taking into account the effect of clouds and sub-saturation, is crucial to evaluate the detectability of atmospheric molecules of interest as well as for interpreting future detections in a more global (and thus robust and relevant) approach.

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arXiv2018

The Importance of Multiple Observation Methods to Characterize Potentially Habitable Exoplanets: Ground- and Space-Based Synergies

The discovery of a truly habitable exoplanet would be one of the most important events in the history of science. However, the nature and distribution of habitable environments on exoplanets is currently unconstrained. The exoplanet revolution teaches us to expect surprises. Thus, versatile, capable observatories, and multiple observation techniques are needed to study the full diversity of habitable environments. Here, we summarize the challenges and opportunities of observing planets orbiting M dwarf vs. FGK dwarfs, which are best targeted with different methods.

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arXiv2018

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b I: Evolutionary Scenarios

We analyze the evolution of the potentially habitable planet Proxima Centauri b to identify environmental factors that affect its long-term habitability. We consider physical processes acting on size scales ranging from the galactic to the stellar system to the planet's core. We find that there is a significant probability that Proxima Centauri has had encounters with its companion stars, Alpha Centauri A and B, that are close enough to destabilize an extended planetary system. If the system has an additional planet, as suggested by the discovery data, then it may perturb planet b's eccentricity and inclination, possibly driving those parameters to non-zero values, even in the presence of strong tidal damping. We also model the internal evolution of the planet, evaluating the roles of different radiogenic abundances and tidal heating and find that magnetic field generation is likely for billions of years. We find that if planet b formed in situ, then it experienced 169 +/- 13 million years in a runaway greenhouse as the star contracted during its formation. This early phase could remove up to 5 times as much water as in the modern Earth's oceans, possibly producing a large abiotic oxygen atmosphere. On the other hand, if Proxima Centauri b formed with a substantial hydrogen atmosphere (0.01 - 1% of the planet's mass), then this envelope could have shielded the water long enough for it to be retained before being blown off itself. After modeling this wide range of processes we conclude that water retention during the host star's pre-main sequence phase is the biggest obstacle for Proxima b's habitability. These results are all obtained with a new software package called VPLANET.

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arXiv2015

The Pseudo-zodi Problem for Edge-on Planetary Systems

Future direct observations of extrasolar Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone could be hampered by a worrisome source of noise, starlight-reflecting exozodiacal dust. Mid-infrared surveys are currently underway to constrain the amount of exozodiacal dust in the habitable zones around nearby stars. However, at visible wavelengths another source of dust, invisible to these surveys, may dominate over exozodiacal dust. For systems observed near edge-on, a cloud of dust with face-on optical depth 10^-7 beyond ~5 AU can mimic the surface brightness of a cloud of exozodiacal dust with equal optical depth if the dust grains are sufficiently forward-scattering. We posit that dust migrating inward from cold debris belts via Poynting-Robertson drag could produce this "pseudo-zodiacal" effect, potentially making it ~50% as common as exozodiacal clouds. We place constraints on the disk radii and scattering phase function required to produce the effect.

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