arXiv subjects

Andrew Melatos

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Melatos.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Vacillating about media bias: changing one's mind intermittently within a network of political allies and opponents

One form of long-term behavior revealed by opinion dynamics simulations is intermittency, where an individual cycles between eras of stable, constant beliefs and turbulent, fluctuating beliefs, for example when inferring the political bias of a media organization. We explore this phenomenon by building an idealized network of Bayesian learners, who infer the bias of a coin from observations of coin tosses and peer pressure from political allies and opponents. Numerical simulations reveal that three types of network structure lead to three different types of intermittency, which are caused by agents ``locking out'' opponents from sure beliefs in specific ways. The probability density functions of the dwell times, over which the learners sustain stable or turbulent beliefs, differ across the three types of intermittency. Hence, one can observe the dwell times of a learner to infer the underlying network structure, at least in principle.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Discerning media bias within a network of political allies and opponents: Disruption by partisans

An individual's opinions about media bias derive from their own independent assessment of media outputs combined with peer pressure from networked political allies and opponents. Here we generalize previous idealized, probabilistic models of the perception formation process, based on a network of Bayesian learners inferring the bias of a coin, by introducing obdurate agents (partisans), whose opinions stay fixed. It is found that even one partisan destabilizes an allies-only network, stopping it from achieving asymptotic learning and forcing persuadable agents to vacillate indefinitely (turbulent nonconvergence) between the true coin bias $θ_0$ and the partisan's belief $θ_{\rm p}$. The dwell time $t_{\rm d}$ at the partisan's belief increases, as the partisan fraction $f$ increases, and decreases, when multiple partisans disagree amongst themselves. In opponents-only networks, asymptotic learning occurs, whether or not partisans are present. However, the counterintuitive tendency to reach wrong conclusions first, identified in previous work with zero partisans, does not persist in general for $θ_0 \neq θ_{\rm p}$ in complete networks; it is a property of sparsely connected systems (e.g.\ Barabási-Albert networks with attachment parameter $\lesssim 10$). In mixed networks containing allies and opponents, partisans drive counterintuitive outcomes, which depend sensitively, on where they reside. A strongly balanced triad exhibits intermittency with a partisan (sudden transitions between long intervals of static beliefs and turbulent nonconvergence) and asymptotic learning without a partisan.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Apparent dispersion in pulsar braking index measurements caused by timing noise

Stochastic temporal wandering of the spin frequency $ν$ of a rotation-powered pulsar (i.e.~the achromatic component of timing noise unrelated to interstellar propagation) affects the accuracy with which the secular braking torque can be measured. Observational studies confirm that pulsars with anomalous braking indices $\vert n \vert = \vert ν\ddotν / \dotν^2 \vert \gg 1$ exhibit elevated levels of timing noise, where an overdot symbolizes a derivative with respect to time. Here it is shown, through analytic calculations and Monte Carlo simulations involving synthetic data and modern Bayesian timing techniques, that the variance $\langle n^2 \rangle$ of the measured $n$ scales with the square of the timing noise amplitude $σ_{\ddotν}$. The anomalous regime $\langle n^2 \rangle \gg 1$ corresponds to $ σ_{\ddotν}^2 \gg 10^{-60} (γ_{\ddotν}/10^{-6} \, {\rm s^{-1}})^2 (\dotν / 10^{-14} \, {\rm Hz \, s^{-1}})^4 (ν/ 1 \, {\rm Hz})^{-2} (T_{\rm obs} / 10^8 \, {\rm s}) \, {\rm Hz}^2{\rm s}^{-5 }$, where $γ_{\ddotν}$ is a stellar damping time-scale, and $T_{\rm obs}$ is the total observing time. When the inequality in the above condition is reversed, $n$ is dominated by the secular braking torque, and timing measurements return $n\sim 3$, if the secular braking torque is electromagnetic. The variance $\langle n^2 \rangle$ is greater, when the stochastic process driving spin fluctuations differs from the red noise model (e.g. power-law spectral density) assumed in the timing solution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

A statistical search for a uniform trigger threshold in solar flares from individual active regions

Solar flares result from the sudden release of energy deposited by sub-photospheric motions into the magnetic field of the corona. The deposited energy accumulates secularly between events. One may interpret the observed event statistics as resulting from a state-dependent Poisson process, in which the instantaneous flare rate is a function of the stress in the system, and a flare becomes certain as the stress approaches a threshold set by the micro-physics of the flare trigger. If the system is driven fast, and if the threshold is static and uniform globally, a cross-correlation is predicted between the size of a flare and the forward waiting time to the next flare. This cross-correlation is broadly absent from the \emph{Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite} (\emph{GOES}) soft X-ray flare database. One also predicts higher cross-correlations in active regions where the shapes of the waiting time and size distributions match. Again there is no evidence for such an association in the \emph{GOES} data. The data imply at least one of the following: i) the threshold at which a flare is triggered varies in time; ii) the rate at which energy is driven into active regions varies in time; iii) historical flare catalogs are incomplete; or iv) the description of solar flares as resulting from a build-up and release of energy, once a threshold is reached, is incomplete.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Evolutionary implications of a magnetar interpretation for GLEAM-X J162759.5-523504.3

The radio pulsar GLEAM-X J162759.5-523504.3 has an extremely long spin period ($P = 1091.17\, \mbox{s}$), and yet seemingly continues to spin down rapidly ($\dot{P} < 1.2 \times 10^{-9}\, \mbox{ss}^{-1}$). The magnetic field strength that is implied, if the source is a neutron star undergoing magnetic dipole braking, could exceed $10^{16}\,\mbox{G}$. This object may therefore be the most magnetised neutron star observed to date. In this paper, a critical analysis of a magnetar interpretation for the source is provided. (i) A minimum polar magnetic field strength of $B \sim 5 \times 10^{15}\,\mbox{G}$ appears to be necessary for the star to activate as a radio pulsar, based on conventional `death valley' assumptions. (ii) Back-extrapolation from magnetic braking and Hall-plastic-Ohm decay suggests that a large angular momentum reservoir was available at birth to support intense field amplification. (iii) The observational absence of X-rays constrains the star's field strength and age, as the competition between heating from field decay and Urca cooling implies a surface luminosity as a function of time. If the object is an isolated, young ($\sim 10\, \mbox{kyr}$) magnetar with a present-day field strength of $B \gtrsim 10^{16}\,\mbox{G}$, the upper limit ($\approx 10^{30}\, \mbox{erg s}^{-1}$) set on its thermal luminosity suggests it is cooling via a direct Urca mechanism.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Inferring neutron star properties with continuous gravitational waves

Detection of continuous gravitational waves from rapidly-spinning neutron stars opens up the possibility of examining their internal physics. We develop a framework that leverages a future continuous gravitational wave detection to infer a neutron star's moment of inertia, equatorial ellipticity, and the component of the magnetic dipole moment perpendicular to its rotation axis. We assume that the neutron star loses rotational kinetic energy through both gravitational wave and electromagnetic radiation, and that the distance to the neutron star can be measured, but do not assume electromagnetic pulsations are observable or a particular neutron star equation of state. We use the Fisher information matrix and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate errors in the inferred parameters, assuming a population of gravitational-wave-emitting neutron stars consistent with the typical parameter domains of continuous gravitational wave searches. After an observation time of one year, the inferred errors for many neutron stars are limited chiefly by the error in the distance to the star. The techniques developed here will be useful if continuous gravitational waves are detected from a radio, X-ray, or gamma-ray pulsar, or else from a compact object with known distance, such as a supernova remnant.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Repeated mergers of black hole binaries: implications for GW190521

The gravitational wave event GW190521 involves the merger of two black holes of $\sim 85\text{M}_\odot$ and $\sim 66\text{M}_\odot$ forming an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) of mass $\sim 142\text{M}_\odot$. Both progenitors are challenging to explain within standard stellar evolution as they are within the upper black-hole mass gap. We propose a dynamical formation pathway for this IMBH based on multiple mergers in the core of a globular cluster. We identify such scenarios from analysis of a set of 58 N-body simulations using \texttt{NBODY6-gpu}. In one of our simulations, we observe a stellar black hole undergoing a chain of seven binary mergers within 6 Gyr, attaining a final mass of $97.8\text{M}_\odot$. We discuss the dynamical interactions that lead to the final IMBH product, as well as the evolution of the black hole population in that simulation. We explore statistically the effects of gravitational recoil on the viability of such hierarchical mergers. From the analysis of all 58 simulations we observe additional smaller chains, tentatively inferring that an IMBH formation through hierarchical mergers is expected in the lifetime of a median mass globular cluster with probability $0.01 \lesssim p \lesssim 0.1$ without gravitational merger recoil. Using this order-of-magnitude estimate we show our results are broadly consistent with the rate implied by GW190521, assuming that gravitational recoil ejection of progenitors has a low probability. We discuss implications for future gravitational wave detections, emphasising the importance of studying such formation pathways for BHs within the upper mass gap as a means to constrain such modelling.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Magnetic dynamo caused by axions in neutron stars

The coupling between axions and photons modifies Maxwell's equations, introducing a dynamo term in the magnetic induction equation. In neutron stars, for critical values of the axion decay constant and axion mass, the magnetic dynamo mechanism increases the total magnetic energy of the star. We show that this generates substantial internal heating due to enhanced dissipation of crustal electric currents. These mechanisms would lead magnetized neutron stars to increase their magnetic energy and thermal luminosity by several orders of magnitude, in contrast to observations of thermally-emitting neutron stars. To prevent the activation of the dynamo, bounds on the allowed axion parameter space can be derived.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Search for continuous gravitational waves from HESS~J1427-608 with a hidden Markov model

We present a search for continuous gravitational wave signals from an unidentified pulsar potentially powering HESS~J1427-608, a spatially unresolved TeV point source detected by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS). The search uses a semi-coherent algorithm, which combines the maximum likelihood $\mathcal{F}$~statistic with a hidden Markov model to efficiently detect and track quasi-monochromatic signals that wander randomly in frequency. It uses data from the second observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory. Multi-wavelength observations of the HESS source are combined with the proprieties of the population of TeV-bright pulsar wind nebulae to constrain the search parameters. We find no evidence of gravitational wave emission from this target. We set upper limits on the characteristic wave strain $h_0^{95\%}$ (for circularly polarized signals) at $95\%$ confidence level in sample sub-bands and interpolate it to estimate the sensitivity in the full band. We find $h_0^{95\%} = 1.3\times 10^{-25}$ near 185~Hz. The implied constraints on the ellipticity and \textit{r}-mode amplitude reach $ε\leq 10^{-5}$ and $α\leq 10^{-3}$ at 200~Hz, respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Validating continuous gravitational-wave candidates from a semicoherent search using Doppler modulation and an effective point spread function

Following up large numbers of candidates in continuous gravitational wave searches presents a challenge, particularly in regard to computational power and the time required to manually scrutinize each of the candidates. It is important to design and test good follow-up procedures that are safe (i.e., minimize false dismissals) and computationally efficient across many search configurations. We investigate two follow-up procedures, or "vetoes," both of which exploit the Doppler modulation predicted in astrophysical signals. In particular, we introduce the concept of using an effective point spread function as part of our veto criteria. We take advantage of a well-established semicoherent search algorithm based on a hidden Markov model to study various search configurations and to generalize the veto criteria by considering the overall veto performance in terms of efficiency and safety. The results can serve as a guideline for follow-up studies in future continuous gravitational wave searches using a hidden Markov model algorithm. The results also apply qualitatively to other semicoherent search algorithms.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Search for continuous gravitational waves from PSR J0437$-$4715 with a hidden Markov model in O3 LIGO data

Results are presented for a semi-coherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the millisecond pulsar PSR J0437$-$4715, using a hidden Markov model to track spin wandering, in LIGO data from the third LIGO-Virgo observing run. This is the first search for PSR J0437$-$4715 to cover a wide frequency range from $60$ Hz to $500$ Hz and simultanously accommodate random spin deviations from the secular radio ephemeris. Two searches are performed with plausible coherence times of $10$ days and $30$ days, as the frequency wandering time-scale of the gravitational-wave-emitting quadrupole is unknown. The former analysis yields no surviving candidates, while the latter yields five candidates after the veto procedure. The detection statistic of each of the five survivors is mapped as a function of sky position, in preparation for follow-up analyses in the future, e.g. during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA fourth observing run.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Discerning media bias within a network of political allies and opponents: the idealized example of a biased coin

Perceptions of political bias in the media are formed directly, through the independent consumption of the published outputs of a media organization, and indirectly, through observing the collective responses of political allies and opponents to the same published outputs. A network of Bayesian learners is constructed to model this system, in which the bias perceived by each agent obeys a probability density function, which is updated according to Bayes's theorem given data about the published outputs and the beliefs of the agent's political allies and opponents. The Bayesian framework allows for uncertain beliefs, multimodal probability distribution functions, and antagonistic interactions with opponents, not just cooperation with allies. Numerical simulations are performed to test the idealized example of inferring the bias of a coin. It is found that some agents converge on the wrong conclusion faster than others converge on the right conclusion under a surprisingly broad range of conditions, when antagonistic interactions are present which "lock out" some agents from the truth, e.g. in Barabási-Albert networks. It is also found that structurally unbalanced networks routinely experience turbulent nonconvergence, where some agents fail to achieve a steady-state belief, e.g. when they are allies of two agents who are opponents themselves. The subtle phenomenon of long-term intermittency is also explored.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Deep exploration for continuous gravitational waves at 171--172 Hz in LIGO second observing run data

We pursue a novel strategy towards a first detection of continuous gravitational waves from rapidly-rotating deformed neutron stars. Computational power is focused on a narrow region of signal parameter space selected by a strategically-chosen benchmark. We search data from the 2nd observing run of the LIGO Observatory with an optimised analysis run on graphics processing units. While no continuous waves are detected, the search achieves a sensitivity to gravitational wave strain of $h_0 = 1.01{\times}10^{-25}$ at 90% confidence, 24% to 69% better than past searches of the same parameter space. Constraints on neutron star deformity are within theoretical maxima, thus a detection by this search was not inconceivable.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

An estimate of the stochastic gravitational wave background from the MassiveBlackII simulation

A population of super-massive black hole binaries is expected to generate a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) in the pulsar timing array (PTA) frequency range of $10^{-9}$--$10^{-7}$ Hz. Detection of this signal is a current observational goal and so predictions of its characteristics are of significant interest. In this work we use super-massive black hole binary mergers from the MassiveBlackII simulation to estimate the characteristic strain of the stochastic background. We examine both a gravitational wave driven model of binary evolution and a model which also includes the effects of stellar scattering and a circumbinary gas disk. Results are consistent with PTA upper limits and similar to estimates in the literature. The characteristic strain at a reference frequency of $1 yr^{-1}$ is found to be $A_{yr^{-1}} = 6.9 \times 10^{-16}$ and $A_{yr^{-1}} = 6.4 \times 10^{-16}$ in the gravitational-wave driven and stellar scattering/gas disk cases, respectively. Using the latter approach, our models show that the SGWB is mildly suppressed compared to the purely gravitational wave driven model as frequency decreases inside the PTA frequency band.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

An updated glitch rate law inferred from radio pulsars

Radio pulsar glitches probe far-from-equilibrium processes involving stress accumulation and relaxation in neutron star interiors. Previous studies of glitch rates have focused on individual pulsars with as many recorded glitches as possible. In this work we analyze glitch rates using all available data including objects that have glitched never or once. We assume the glitch rate follows a homogeneous Poisson process, and therefore exclude pulsars which exhibit quasiperiodic glitching behavior. Calculating relevant Bayes factors shows that a model in which the glitch rate $λ$ scales as a power of the characteristic age $τ$ is preferred over models which depend arbitrarily on powers of the spin frequency $ν$ and/or its time derivative $\dotν$. For $λ= A (τ/τ\vref)^{-γ}$, where $τ_{\rm ref}=1\ {\rm yr}$ is a reference time, the posterior distributions are unimodal with $A=\ModelAAglitch\ \rm{yr}^{-1}$, and $γ=\ModelAgammaglitch$. Importantly, the data exclude with 99\% confidence the possibility $γ=1$ canvassed in the literature. When objects with zero recorded glitches are included, the age-based rate law is still preferred and the posteriors change to give $A=\ModelAAall\ \rm{yr}^{-1}$, and $γ=\ModelAgammaall$. The updated estimates still support increased glitch activity for younger pulsars, while demonstrating that the large number of objects with zero glitches contain important statistical information about the rate, provided that they are part of the same population as opposed to a disjoint population which never glitches for some unknown physical reason.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Continuous gravitational waves in the lab: recovering audio signals with a table-top optical microphone

Gravitational-wave observatories around the world are searching for continuous waves: persistent signals from sources such as spinning neutron stars. These searches use sophisticated statistical techniques to look for weak signals in noisy data. In this paper, we demonstrate these techniques using a table-top model gravitational-wave detector: a Michelson interferometer where sound is used as an analog for gravitational waves. Using signal processing techniques from continuous-wave searches, we demonstrate the recovery of tones with constant and wandering frequencies. We also explore the use of the interferometer as a teaching tool for educators in physics and electrical engineering by using it as an "optical microphone" to capture music and speech. A range of filtering techniques used to recover signals from noisy data are detailed in the Supplementary Material. Here, we present highlights of our results using a combined notch plus Wiener filter and the statistical log minimum mean-square error (logMMSE) estimator. Using these techniques, we easily recover recordings of simple chords and drums, but complex music and speech are more challenging. This demonstration can be used by educators in undergraduate laboratories and can be adapted for communicating gravitational-wave and signal-processing topics to non-specialist audiences.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Graphics processing unit implementation of the F-statistic for continuous gravitational wave searches

The $\mathcal{F}$-statistic is a detection statistic used widely in searches for continuous gravitational waves with terrestrial, long-baseline interferometers. A new implementation of the $\mathcal{F}$-statistic is presented which accelerates the existing "resampling" algorithm using graphics processing units (GPUs). The new implementation runs between 10 and 100 times faster than the existing implementation on central processing units without sacrificing numerical accuracy. The utility of the GPU implementation is demonstrated on a pilot narrowband search for four newly discovered millisecond pulsars in the globular cluster Omega Centauri using data from the second Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory observing run. The computational cost is $17.2$ GPU-hours using the new implementation, compared to 1092 core-hours with the existing implementation.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2021

The impact of glitches on young pulsar rotational evolution

We report on a timing programme of 74 young pulsars that have been observed by the Parkes 64-m radio telescope over the past decade. Using modern Bayesian timing techniques, we have measured the properties of 124 glitches in 52 of these pulsars, of which 74 are new. We demonstrate that the glitch sample is complete to fractional increases in spin-frequency greater than $Δν^{90\%}_{g}/ν\approx 8.1 \times 10^{-9}$. We measure values of the braking index, $n$, in 33 pulsars. In most of these pulsars, their rotational evolution is dominated by episodes of spin-down with $n > 10$, punctuated by step changes in the spin-down rate at the time of a large glitch. The step changes are such that, averaged over the glitches, the long-term $n$ is small. We find a near one-to-one relationship between the inter-glitch value of $n$ and the change in spin-down of the previous glitch divided by the inter-glitch time interval. We discuss the results in the context of a range of physical models.

astro-ph.HE↗