arXiv subjects

Andrew P. Lincowski

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew P. Lincowski.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Effects of M Star Age Dependent Ultraviolet Emission on Detecting and Interpreting Exoplanet Biosignatures

Given their abundance and observational advantages, M stars will arguably be the best candidates for characterizing and searching for biosignatures on terrestrial exoplanets in the near future. However, photochemistry that can suppress or enhance key biosignature molecules in planetary atmospheres is primarily driven by UV flux from the host M star, which is influenced by stellar activity that decreases with age. Here, we simulate Pre-Industrial Earth-like and Archean Earth-like atmospheres around M4 and M8 stars from 650 Myr to 5 Gyr old. We find that our Pre-Industrial Earth atmospheres around 5 Gyr M stars have up to ten times more CH$_4$ than those around 650 Myr M stars, producing 68% stronger methane bands in NIR transit spectroscopy. Additionally, photochemical shielding from O$_2$ in our Pre-Industrial Earth atmospheres reduces the impact UV-driven photochemistry on composition, while the Archean Earth exhibits larger compositional changes due to weaker shielding from CO$_2$. Lastly, enhanced CO$_2$ photolysis, driven by the strong net UV flux and high Far/Near-UV ratios of 650 Myr and 1 Gyr M stars, cause our Archean Earth-like planets to produce up to 5.4 dex more O$_3$ than when around 5 Gyr M stars. The excess O$_3$ causes the Archean Earth to become half as reflective in the 0.2-0.3 $\mathrmμ$m Hartley band feature in ultraviolet reflectance spectroscopy, which the Habitable Worlds Observatory may be sensitive to. Without the context of the star's real-time, age-dependent UV radiation, this O$_3$ feature could be misinterpreted as a proxy for low, biogenic O$_2$.

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arXiv2026

Piercing through the Haze: Characterizing Titan-like terrestrial exoplanets with JWST

As we enter a new era of using JWST to characterize exoplanet atmospheres, a top priority is defining observational needs and parameters in the search for life on an exoplanet. Although some studies have begun to consider Titan-like exoplanet atmospheres, more work is needed to prepare for the potential discovery and characterization of Titan analogues with JWST and future missions. We explore the effectiveness of exoplanet atmospheric retrieval methodologies on the Cassini/VIMS-IR spectrum of Titan assuming agnostic haze properties and tholin hazes, as well as a self-consistent photochemical model. We compare our retrieved chemical abundances and haze profiles against fiducial values and Cassini/ISS-NAC UV observations and the forward modeled truths. We generalize these findings to a Titan-like exoplanet in the TRAPPIST-1 system and find that JWST-like observations have limited potential to identify features beyond methane in a Titan-like atmosphere, but may be able to identify the presence of the haze to a few hundred kilometers. The diagnostic features which would differentiate between different haze model (scattering) properties are shortward of 1\,\micron{} and further demonstrate the important role of nUV -- optical observatories in constraining the properties of exoplanet atmospheres. We also find that agnostic priors for the bulk atmosphere can lead to a degeneracy in which a spectrally active gas ($\rm CH_4$) is erroneously favored as the dominant atmospheric constituent over a spectrally inactive molecule (N_2).

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arXiv2023

Reading Between the Lines: Investigating the Ability of JWST to Identify Discerning Features in exoEarth and exoVenus Transmission Spectra

The success of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission has led to the discovery of an abundance of Venus Zone (VZ) terrestrial planets that orbit relatively bright host stars. Atmospheric observations of these planets play a crucial role in understanding the evolutionary history of terrestrial planets, past habitable states, and the divergence of Venus and Earth climates. The transmission spectrum of a Venus-like exoplanet can be difficult to distinguish from that of an Earth-like exoplanet however, which could severely limit what can be learned from studying exoVenuses. In this work we further investigate differences in transmission between hypothetical exoEarths and exoVenuses, both with varying amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO$_2$). The exoEarths and exoVenuses were modelled assuming they orbit TRAPPIST-1 on the runaway greenhouse boundary. We simulated James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) PRISM transit observations of both sets of planets between 0.6-5.2 $μ$m, and quantified the detectability of major absorption features in their transmission spectra. The exoEarth spectra include several large methane (CH$_4$) features that can be detected in as few as 6 transits. The CH$_4$ feature at 3.4 $μ$m is the optimal for feature for discerning an exoEarth from an exoVenus since it is easily detectable and does not overlap with CO$_2$ features. The sulfur dioxide (SO$_2$) feature at 4.0 $μ$m is the best indicator of an exoVenus, but it is detectable in atmospheres with reduced CO$_2$ abundance.

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arXiv2023

Potential Atmospheric Compositions of TRAPPIST-1 c constrained by JWST/MIRI Observations at 15 $μ$m

The first JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 c showed a secondary eclipse depth of 421+/-94 ppm at 15 um, which is consistent with a bare rock surface or a thin, O2-dominated, low CO2 atmosphere (Zieba et al. 2023). Here, we further explore potential atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1 c by comparing the observed secondary eclipse depth to synthetic spectra of a broader range of plausible environments. To self-consistently incorporate the impact of photochemistry and atmospheric composition on atmospheric thermal structure and predicted eclipse depth, we use a two-column climate model coupled to a photochemical model, and simulate O2-dominated, Venus-like, and steam atmospheres. We find that a broader suite of plausible atmospheric compositions are also consistent with the data. For lower pressure atmospheres (0.1 bar), our O2-CO2 atmospheres produce eclipse depths within 1$σ$ of the data, consistent with the modeling results of Zieba et al. (2023). However, for higher-pressure atmospheres, our models produce different temperature-pressure profiles and are less pessimistic, with 1-10 bar O2, 100 ppm CO2 models within 2.0-2.2$σ$ of the measured secondary eclipse depth, and up to 0.5% CO2 within 2.9$σ$. Venus-like atmospheres are still unlikely. For thin O2 atmospheres of 0.1 bar with a low abundance of CO2 ($\sim$100 ppm), up to 10% water vapor can be present and still provide an eclipse depth within 1$σ$ of the data. We compared the TRAPPIST-1 c data to modeled steam atmospheres of $\leq$ 3 bar, which are 1.7-1.8$σ$ from the data and not conclusively ruled out. More data will be required to discriminate between possible atmospheres, or to more definitively support the bare rock hypothesis.

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arXiv2023

No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

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arXiv2021

Claimed detection of PH$_3$ in the clouds of Venus is consistent with mesospheric SO$_2$

The observation of a 266.94 GHz feature in the Venus spectrum has been attributed to PH$_3$ in the Venus clouds, suggesting unexpected geological, chemical or even biological processes. Since both PH$_3$ and SO$_2$ are spectrally active near 266.94 GHz, the contribution to this line from SO$_2$ must be determined before it can be attributed, in whole or part, to PH$_3$. An undetected SO$_2$ reference line, interpreted as an unexpectedly low SO$_2$ abundance, suggested that the 266.94 GHz feature could be attributed primarily to PH$_3$. However, the low SO$_2$ and the inference that PH$_3$ was in the cloud deck posed an apparent contradiction. Here we use a radiative transfer model to analyze the PH$_3$ discovery, and explore the detectability of different vertical distributions of PH$_3$ and SO$_2$. We find that the 266.94 GHz line does not originate in the clouds, but above 80 km in the Venus mesosphere. This level of line formation is inconsistent with chemical modeling that assumes generation of PH$_3$ in the Venus clouds. Given the extremely short chemical lifetime of PH$_3$ in the Venus mesosphere, an implausibly high source flux would be needed to maintain the observed value of 20$\pm$10 ppb. We find that typical Venus SO$_2$ vertical distributions and abundances fit the JCMT 266.94 GHz feature, and the resulting SO$_2$ reference line at 267.54 GHz would have remained undetectable in the ALMA data due to line dilution. We conclude that nominal mesospheric SO$_2$ is a more plausible explanation for the JCMT and ALMA data than PH$_3$.

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arXiv2021

Complications in the ALMA Detection of Phosphine at Venus

Recently published ALMA observations suggest the presence of 20 ppb PH$_3$ in the upper clouds of Venus. This is an unexpected result, as PH$_3$ does not have a readily apparent source and should be rapidly photochemically destroyed according to our current understanding of Venus atmospheric chemistry. While the reported PH$_3$ spectral line at 266.94 GHz is nearly co-located with an SO$_2$ spectral line, the non-detection of stronger SO$_2$ lines in the wideband ALMA data is used to rule out SO$_2$ as the origin of the feature. We present a reassessment of wideband and narrowband datasets derived from these ALMA observations. The ALMA observations are re-reduced following both the initial and revised calibration procedures discussed by the authors of the original study. We also investigate the phenomenon of apparent spectral line dilution over varying spatial scales resulting from the ALMA antenna configuration. A 266.94 GHz spectral feature is apparent in the narrowband data using the initial calibration procedures, but this same feature can not be identified following calibration revisions. The feature is also not reproduced in the wideband data. While the SO$_2$ spectral line is not observed at 257.54 GHz in the ALMA wideband data, our dilution simulations suggest that SO$_2$ abundances greater than the previously suggested 10 ppb limit would also not be detected by ALMA. Additional millimeter, sub-millimeter, and infrared observations of Venus should be undertaken to further investigate the possibility of PH$_3$ in the Venus atmosphere.

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arXiv2019

A mirage of the cosmic shoreline: Venus-like clouds as a statistical false positive for exoplanet atmospheric erosion

Near-term studies of Venus-like atmospheres with JWST promise to advance our knowledge of terrestrial planet evolution. However, the remote study of Venus in the Solar System and the ongoing efforts to characterize gaseous exoplanets both suggest that high altitude aerosols could limit observational studies of lower atmospheres, and potentially make it challenging to recognize exoplanets as "Venus-like". To support practical approaches for exo-Venus characterization with JWST, we use Venus-like atmospheric models with self-consistent cloud formation of the seven TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets to investigate the atmospheric depth that can be probed using both transmission and emission spectroscopy. We find that JWST/MIRI LRS secondary eclipse emission spectroscopy in the 6 $μ$m opacity window could probe at least an order of magnitude deeper pressures than transmission spectroscopy, potentially allowing access to the sub-cloud atmosphere for the two hot innermost TRAPPIST-1 planets. In addition, we identify two confounding effects of sulfuric acid aerosols that may carry strong implications for the characterization of terrestrial exoplanets with transmission spectroscopy: (1) there exists an ambiguity between cloud-top and solid surface in producing the observed spectral continuum; and (2) the cloud-forming region drops in altitude with semi-major axis, causing an increase in the observable cloud-top pressure with decreasing stellar insolation. Taken together, these effects could produce a trend of thicker atmospheres observed at lower stellar insolation---a convincing false positive for atmospheric escape and an empirical "cosmic shoreline". However, developing observational and theoretical techniques to identify Venus-like exoplanets and discriminate them from stellar windswept worlds will enable advances in the emerging field of terrestrial comparative planetology.

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arXiv2019

Observing Isotopologue Bands in Terrestrial Exoplanet Atmospheres with the James Webb Space Telescope---Implications for Identifying Past Atmospheric and Ocean Loss

Terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs may soon be observed with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to characterize their atmospheric composition and search for signs of habitability or life. These planets may undergo significant atmospheric and ocean loss due to the superluminous pre-main-sequence phase of their host stars, which may leave behind abiotically-generated oxygen, a false positive for the detection of life. Determining if ocean loss has occurred will help assess potential habitability and whether or not any O2 detected is biogenic. In the solar system, differences in isotopic abundances have been used to infer the history of ocean loss and atmospheric escape (e.g. Venus, Mars). We find that isotopologue measurements using transit transmission spectra of terrestrial planets around late-type M dwarfs like TRAPPIST-1 may be possible with JWST, if the escape mechanisms and resulting isotopic fractionation were similar to Venus. We present analyses of post-ocean-loss O2- and CO2-dominated atmospheres, containing a range of trace gas abundances. Isotopologue bands are likely detectable throughout the near-infrared (1-8 um), especially 3-4 um, although not in CO2-dominated atmospheres. For Venus-like D/H ratios 100 times that of Earth, TRAPPIST-1 b transit signals of up to 79 ppm are possible by observing HDO. Similarly, 18O/16O ratios 100 times that of Earth produce signals at up to 94 ppm. Detection at S/N=5 may be attained on these bands with as few as four to eleven transits, with optimal use of JWST NIRSpec Prism. Consequently, H2O and CO2 isotopologues could be considered as indicators of past ocean loss and atmospheric escape for JWST observations of terrestrial planets around M dwarfs.

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arXiv2019

The Detectability and Characterization of the TRAPPIST-1 Exoplanet Atmospheres with JWST

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will offer the first opportunity to characterize terrestrial exoplanets with sufficient precision to identify high mean molecular weight atmospheres, and TRAPPIST-1's seven known transiting Earth-sized planets are particularly favorable targets. To assist community preparations for JWST, we use simulations of plausible post-ocean-loss and habitable environments for the TRAPPIST-1 exoplanets, and test simulations of all bright object time series spectroscopy modes and all MIRI photometry filters to determine optimal observing strategies for atmospheric detection and characterization using both transmission and emission observations. We find that transmission spectroscopy with NIRSpec Prism is optimal for detecting terrestrial, CO2 containing atmospheres, potentially in fewer than 10 transits for all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets, if they lack high altitude aerosols. If the TRAPPIST-1 planets possess Venus-like H2SO4 aerosols, up to 12 times more transits may be required to detect atmospheres. We present optimal instruments and observing modes for the detection of individual molecular species in a given terrestrial atmosphere and an observational strategy for discriminating between evolutionary states. We find that water may be prohibitively difficult to detect in both Venus-like and habitable atmospheres due to its presence lower in the atmosphere where transmission spectra are less sensitive. Although the presence of biogenic O2 and O3 will be extremely challenging to detect, abiotically produced oxygen from past ocean loss may be detectable for all seven TRAPPIST-1 planets via O2-O2 collisionally-induced absorption at 1.06 and 1.27 microns, or via NIR O3 features for the outer three planets. Our results constitute a suite of hypotheses on the nature and detectability of highly-evolved terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres that may be tested with JWST.

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arXiv2018

Evolved Climates and Observational Discriminants for the TRAPPIST-1 Planetary System

The TRAPPIST-1 planetary system provides an unprecedented opportunity to study terrestrial exoplanet evolution with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ground-based observatories. Since M dwarf planets likely experience extreme volatile loss, the TRAPPIST-1 planets may have highly-evolved, possibly uninhabitable atmospheres. We used a versatile, 1D terrestrial-planet climate model with line-by-line radiative transfer and mixing length convection (VPL Climate) coupled to a terrestrial photochemistry model to simulate environmental states for the TRAPPIST-1 planets. We present equilibrium climates with self-consistent atmospheric compositions, and observational discriminants of post-runaway, desiccated, 10-100 bar O2- and CO2-dominated atmospheres, including interior outgassing, as well as for water-rich compositions. Our simulations show a range of surface temperatures, most of which are not habitable, although an aqua-planet TRAPPIST-1 e could maintain a temperate surface given Earth-like geological outgassing and CO2. We find that a desiccated TRAPPIST-1 h may produce habitable surface temperatures beyond the maximum greenhouse distance. Potential observational discriminants for these atmospheres in transmission and emission spectra are influenced by photochemical processes and aerosol formation, and include collision-induced oxygen absorption (O2-O2), and O3, CO, SO2, H2O, and CH4 absorption features, with transit signals of up to 200 ppm. Our simulated transmission spectra are consistent with K2, HST, and Spitzer observations of the TRAPPIST-1 planets. For several terrestrial atmospheric compositions, we find that TRAPPIST-1 b is unlikely to produce aerosols. These results can inform JWST observation planning and data interpretation for the TRAPPIST-1 system and other M dwarf terrestrial planets.

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arXiv2017

Finding the Needles in the Haystacks: High-Fidelity Models of the Modern and Archean Solar System for Simulating Exoplanet Observations

We present two state-of-the-art models of the solar system, one corresponding to the present day and one to the Archean Eon 3.5 billion years ago. Each model contains spatial and spectral information for the star, the planets, and the interplanetary dust, extending to 50 AU from the sun and covering the wavelength range 0.3 to 2.5 micron. In addition, we created a spectral image cube representative of the astronomical backgrounds that will be seen behind deep observations of extrasolar planetary systems, including galaxies and Milky Way stars. These models are intended as inputs to high-fidelity simulations of direct observations of exoplanetary systems using telescopes equipped with high-contrast capability. They will help improve the realism of observation and instrument parameters that are required inputs to statistical observatory yield calculations, as well as guide development of post-processing algorithms for telescopes capable of directly imaging Earth-like planets.

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arXiv2017

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Understanding Oxygen as a Biosignature in the Context of Its Environment

Here we review how environmental context can be used to interpret whether O2 is a biosignature in extrasolar planetary observations. This paper builds on the overview of current biosignature research discussed in Schwieterman et al. (2017), and provides an in-depth, interdisciplinary example of biosignature identification and observation that serves as a basis for the development of the general framework for biosignature assessment described in Catling et al., (2017). O2 is a potentially strong biosignature that was originally thought to be an unambiguous indicator for life at high-abundance. We describe the coevolution of life with the early Earth's environment, and how the interplay of sources and sinks in the planetary environment may have resulted in suppression of O2 release into the atmosphere for several billion years, a false negative for biologically generated O2. False positives may also be possible, with recent research showing potential mechanisms in exoplanet environments that may generate relatively high abundances of atmospheric O2 without a biosphere being present. These studies suggest that planetary characteristics that may enhance false negatives should be considered when selecting targets for biosignature searches. Similarly our ability to interpret O2 observed in an exoplanetary atmosphere is also crucially dependent on environmental context to rule out false positive mechanisms. We describe future photometric, spectroscopic and time-dependent observations of O2 and the planetary environment that could increase our confidence that any observed O2 is a biosignature, and help discriminate it from potential false positives. By observing and understanding O2 in its planetary context we can increase our confidence in the remote detection of life, and provide a model for biosignature development for other proposed biosignatures.

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arXiv2016

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: II: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here we use 1D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for evolutionary scenarios predicted in our companion paper (Barnes et al., 2016). These include high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with either oxidizing or reducing compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b, but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere, and JWST observations longward of 7 microns could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST, but may be within the reach of larger aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthesis. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 μm would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4 and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer.

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