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Andrew Shannon

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Shannon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Modeling Nonlinear Oscillator Networks Using Physics-Informed Hybrid Reservoir Computing

Surrogate modeling of non-linear oscillator networks remains challenging due to discrepancies between simplified analytical models and real-world complexity. To bridge this gap, we investigate hybrid reservoir computing, combining reservoir computing with "expert" analytical models. Simulating the absence of an exact model, we first test the surrogate models with parameter errors in their expert model. Second, in a residual physics task, we assess their performance when their expert model lacks key non-linear coupling terms present in an extended ground-truth model. We focus on short-term forecasting across diverse dynamical regimes, evaluating the use of these surrogates for control applications. We show that hybrid reservoir computers generally outperform standard reservoir computers and exhibit greater robustness to parameter tuning. This advantage is less pronounced in the residual physics task. Notably, unlike standard reservoir computers, the performance of the hybrid does not degrade when crossing an observed spectral radius threshold. Furthermore, there is good performance for dynamical regimes not accessible to the expert model, demonstrating the contribution of the reservoir.

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Understanding the trans-Neptunian Solar system: Reconciling the results of serendipitous stellar occultations and the inferences from the cratering record

The most pristine remnants of the Solar system's planet formation epoch orbit the Sun beyond Neptune, the small bodies of the trans-Neptunian object populations. The bulk of the mass is in ~100 km objects, but objects at smaller sizes have undergone minimal collisional processing, with New Horizons recently revealing that ~20 km effective diameter body (486958) Arrokoth appears to be a primordial body, not a collisional fragment. This indicates bodies at these sizes (and perhaps smaller) retain a record of how they were formed, and are the most numerous record of that epoch. However, such bodies are impractical to find by optical surveys due to their very low brightnesses. Their presence can be inferred from the observed cratering record of Pluto and Charon, and directly measured by serendipitous stellar occultations. These two methods produce conflicting results, with occultations measuring roughly ten times the number of ~km bodies inferred from the cratering record. We use numerical models to explore how these observations can be reconciled with evolutionary models of the outer Solar system. We find that models where the initial size of bodies decreases with increasing semimajor axis of formation, and models where the surface density of bodies increases beyond the 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Neptune can produce both sets of observations, though comparison to various observational tests favours the former mechanism. We discuss how to evaluate the astrophysical plausibility of these solutions, and conclude extended serendipitous occultation surveys with broad sky coverage are the most practical approach.

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Longterm Stability of Planetary Systems formed from a Transitional Disk

Transitional disks are protoplanetary disks with large and deep central holes in the gas, possibly carved by young planets. Dong, R., & Dawson, R. 2016, ApJ, 825, 7 simulated systems with multiple giant planets that were capable of carving and maintaining such gaps during the disk stage. Here we continue their simulations by evolving the systems for 10 Gyr after disk dissipation and compare the resulting system architecture to observed giant planet properties, such as their orbital eccentricities and resonances. We find that the simulated systems contain a disproportionately large number of circular orbits compared to observed giant exoplanets. Large eccentricities are generated in simulated systems that go unstable, but too few of our systems go unstable, likely due to our demand that they remain stable during the gas disk stage to maintain cavities. We also explore whether transitional disk inspired initial conditions can account for the observed younger ages of 2:1 resonant systems orbiting mature host stars. Many simulated planet pairs lock into a 2:1 resonance during the gas disk stage, but those that are disrupted tend to be disrupted early, within the first 10 Myr. Our results suggest that systems of giant planets capable of carving and maintaining transitional disks are not the direct predecessors of observed giant planets, either because the transitional disk cavities have a different origin or another process is involved, such as convergent migration that pack planets close together at the end of the transitional disk stage.

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ALMA imaging of the M-dwarf Fomalhaut C's debris disc

Fomalhaut C (LP 876-10) is a low mass M4V star in the intriguing Fomalhaut triple system and, like Fomalhaut A, possesses a debris disc. It is one of very few nearby M-dwarfs known to host a debris disc and of these has by far the lowest stellar mass. We present new resolved observations of the debris disc around Fomalhaut C with the Atacama Large Millimetre Array which allow us to model its properties and investigate the system's unique history. The ring has a radius of 26 au and a narrow full width at half maximum of at most 4.2 au. We find a 3$σ$ upper limit on the eccentricity of 0.14, neither confirming nor ruling out previous dynamic interactions with Fomalhaut A that could have affected Fomalhaut C's disc. We detect no $^{12}$CO J=3-2 emission in the system and do not detect the disc in scattered light with HST/STIS or VLT/SPHERE. We find the original Herschel detection to be consistent with our ALMA model's radial size. We place the disc in the context of the wider debris disc population and find that its radius is as expected from previous disc radius-host luminosity trends. Higher signal-to-noise observations of the system would be required to further constrain the disc properties and provide further insight to the history of the Fomalhaut triple system as a whole.

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Observable Predictions from Perturber-coupled High-eccentricity Tidal Migration of Warm Jupiters

The origin of warm Jupiters (gas giant planets with periods between 10 and 200 days) is an open question in exoplanet formation and evolution. We investigate a particular migration theory in which a warm Jupiter is coupled to a perturbing companion planet that excites secular eccentricity oscillations in the warm Jupiter, leading to periodic close stellar passages that can tidally shrink and circularize its orbit. If such companions exist in warm Jupiter systems, they are likely to be massive and close-in, making them potentially detectable. We generate a set of warm Jupiter-perturber populations capable of engaging in high-eccentricity tidal migration and calculate the detectability of the perturbers through a variety of observational metrics. We show that a small percentage of these perturbers should be detectable in the Kepler light curves, but most should be detectable with precise radial velocity measurements over a 3-month baseline and Gaia astrometry. We find these results to be robust to the assumptions made for the perturber parameter distributions. If a high-precision radial velocity search for companions to warm Jupiters does not find evidence of a significant number of massive companions over a 3-month baseline, it will suggest that perturber-coupled high-eccentricity migration is not the predominant delivery method for warm Jupiters.

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The HOSTS survey for exozodiacal dust: Observational results from the complete survey

The Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) enables nulling interferometric observations across the N band (8 to 13 um) to suppress a star's bright light and probe for faint circumstellar emission. We present and statistically analyze the results from the LBTI/HOSTS (Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems) survey for exozodiacal dust. By comparing our measurements to model predictions based on the Solar zodiacal dust in the N band, we estimate a 1 sigma median sensitivity of 23 zodis for early type stars and 48 zodis for Sun-like stars, where 1 zodi is the surface density of habitable zone (HZ) dust in the Solar system. Of the 38 stars observed, 10 show significant excess. A clear correlation of our detections with the presence of cold dust in the systems was found, but none with the stellar spectral type or age. The majority of Sun-like stars have relatively low HZ dust levels (best-fit median: 3 zodis, 1 sigma upper limit: 9 zodis, 95% confidence: 27 zodis based on our N band measurements), while ~20% are significantly more dusty. The Solar system's HZ dust content is consistent with being typical. Our median HZ dust level would not be a major limitation to the direct imaging search for Earth-like exoplanets, but more precise constraints are still required, in particular to evaluate the impact of exozodiacal dust for the spectroscopic characterization of imaged exo-Earth candidates.

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Linking the formation and fate of exo-Kuiper belts within solar system analogues

Escalating observations of exo-minor planets and their destroyed remnants both passing through the solar system and within white dwarf planetary systems motivate an understanding of the orbital history and fate of exo-Kuiper belts and planetesimal discs. Here we explore how the structure of a 40-1000 au annulus of planetesimals orbiting inside of a solar system analogue that is itself initially embedded within a stellar cluster environment varies as the star evolves through all of its stellar phases. We attempt this computationally challenging link in four parts: (1) by performing stellar cluster simulations lasting 100 Myr, (2) by making assumptions about the subsequent quiescent 11 Gyr main-sequence evolution, (3) by performing simulations throughout the giant branch phases of evolution, and (4) by making assumptions about the belt's evolution during the white dwarf phase. Throughout these stages, we estimate the planetesimals' gravitational responses to analogues of the four solar system giant planets, as well as to collisional grinding, Galactic tides, stellar flybys, and stellar radiation. We find that the imprint of stellar cluster dynamics on the architecture of $\gtrsim 100$ km-sized exo-Kuiper belt planetesimals is retained throughout all phases of stellar evolution unless violent gravitational instabilities are triggered either (1) amongst the giant planets, or (2) due to a close ($\ll 10^3$ au) stellar flyby. In the absence of these instabilities, these minor planets simply double their semimajor axis while retaining their primordial post-cluster eccentricity and inclination distributions, with implications for the free-floating planetesimal population and metal-polluted white dwarfs.

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Debris Disks in Multi-Planet Systems: Are Our Inferences Compromised by Unseen Planets?

Resolved debris disk features (e.g., warps, offsets, edges and gaps, azimuthal asymmetries, radially thickened rings, scale heights) contain valuable information about the underlying planetary systems, such as the posited planet's mass, semi-major axis, and other orbital parameters. Most existing models assume a single planet is sculpting the disk feature, but recent observations of mature planetary systems (e.g., by radial velocity surveys or \textit{Kepler}) have revealed that many planets reside in multi-planet systems. Here we investigate if/how planet properties inferred from single-planet models are compromised when multiple planets reside in the system. For each disk feature, we build a two-planet model that includes a planet b with fixed parameters and a planet c with a full range of possible parameters. We investigate these two-planet systems and summarize the configurations for which assuming a single planet (i.e., planet b) leads to significantly flawed inferences of that planet's properties. We find that although disk features are usually primarily dominated by a single planet, when using single-planet models we are at risk of misinterpreting planet properties by orders of magnitude in extreme cases. Specifically, we are at high risk of misinterpreting planet properties from disk warps; at moderate risk from disk edges and gaps, radially thickened rings, and scale height features; and at low risk from host star-disk center offsets and azimuthal asymmetries. We summarize situations where we can infer the need to use a multi-planet model instead of a single-planet one from disk morphology dissimilarities.

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Oort cloud asteroids: Collisional evolution, the Nice Model, and the Grand Tack

If the Solar system had a history of planet migration, the signature of that migration may be imprinted on the populations of asteroids and comets that were scattered in the planets' wake. Here, we consider the dynamical and collisional evolution of inner Solar system asteroids which join the Oort cloud. We compare the Oort cloud asteroid populations produced by migration scenarios based on the `Nice' and `Grand Tack' scenarios, as well as a null hypothesis where the planets have not migrated, to the detection of one such object, C/2014 S3 (PANSTARRS). Our simulations find that the discovery of C/2014 S3 (PANSTARRS) only has a greater than one percent chance of occurring if the Oort cloud asteroids evolved on to Oort cloud orbits when the Solar system was not more than about one million years old, as this early transfer to the Oort cloud is necessary to keep the amount of collisional evolution low. We argue this only occurs when a giant (greater than thirty Earth masses) planet orbits at 1 ~ 2 au, and thus our results strongly favour a `Grand Tack'-like migration having occurred early in the Solar system's history.

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Using warm dust to constrain unseen planets

Cold outer debris belts orbit a significant fraction of stars, many of which are planet-hosts. Radiative forces from the star lead to dust particles leaving the outer belts and spiralling inwards under Poynting-Robertson drag. We present an empirical model fitted to N-body simulations that allows the fate of these dust particles when they encounter a planet to be rapidly calculated. High mass planets eject most particles, whilst dust passes low mass planets relatively unperturbed. Close-in, high mass planets (hot Jupiters) are best at accreting dust. The model predicts the accretion rate of dust onto planets interior to debris belts, with mass accretions rates of up to hundreds of kilograms per second predicted for hot Jupiters interior to outer debris belts, when collisional evolution is also taken into account. The model can be used to infer the presence and likely masses of as yet undetected planets in systems with outer belts. The non-detection of warm dust with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) around Vega could be explained by the presence of a single Saturn mass planet, or a chain of lower mass planets. Similarly, the detection of warm dust in such systems implies the absence of planets above a quantifiable level, which can be lower than similar limits from direct imaging. The level of dust detected with LBTI around beta Leo can be used to rule out the presence of planets more massive than a few Saturn masses outside of ~5au.

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Limits on the number of primordial Scattered Disk objects at Pluto mass and higher from the absence of their dynamical signatures on the present day trans-Neptunian Populations

Today, Pluto and Eris are the largest and most massive Trans-Neptunian Objects respectively. They are believed to be the last remnants of a population of planetesimals that has been reduced by >99% since the time of its formation. This reduction implies a primordial population of hundreds or thousands of Pluto-mass objects, and a mass-number distribution that could have extended to hundreds of Lunas, dozens of Mars, and several Earths. Such lost protoplanets would have left signatures in the dynamics of the present-day Trans-Neptunian Populations, and we statistically limit their primordial number by considering the survival of ultra-wide binary TNOs, the Cold Classical Kuiper belt, and the resonant population. We find that if the primordial mass-number distribution extended to masses greater than Pluto (~1e-3 Earth masses), it must have turned downwards to be no more top-heavy than roughly equal mass per log size, a significant deviation from the distribution observed between 1e-5 and 1e-3 Earth masses. We compare these limits to the predicted mass-number distribution of various planetesimal and proto-planet growth models. The limits derived here provide a test for future models of planetesimal formation.

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Constraining the presence of giant planets in two-belt debris disk systems with VLT/SPHERE direct imaging and dynamical arguments

Giant, wide-separation planets often lie in the gap between multiple, distinct rings of circumstellar debris: this is the case for the HR\,8799 and HD\,95086 systems, and even the solar system where the Asteroid and Kuiper belts enclose the four gas and ice giants. In the case that a debris disk, inferred from an infrared excess in the SED, is best modelled as two distinct temperatures, we infer the presence of two spatially separated rings of debris. Giant planets may well exist between these two belts of debris, and indeed could be responsible for the formation of the gap between these belts. We observe 24 such two-belt systems using the VLT/SPHERE high contrast imager, and interpret our results under the assumption that the gap is indeed formed by one or more giant planets. A theoretical minimum mass for each planet can then be calculated, based on the predicted dynamical timescales to clear debris. The typical dynamical lower limit is $\sim$0.2$M_J$ in this work, and in some cases exceeds 1$M_J$. Direct imaging data, meanwhile, is typically sensitive to planets down to $\sim$3.6$M_J$ at 1'', and 1.7$M_J$ in the best case. Together, these two limits tightly constrain the possible planetary systems present around each target, many of which will be detectable with the next generation of high-contrast imagers.

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Exoplanet recycling in massive white-dwarf debris discs

Several tens of white dwarfs are known to host circumstellar discs of dusty debris, thought to arise from the tidal disruption of rocky bodies originating in the star's remnant planetary system. This paper investigates the evolution of such discs if they are very massive, as may be the case if their progenitor was a terrestrial planet, moon, or dwarf planet. Assuming the discs are physically thin and flat, like Saturn's rings, their evolution is governed by Poynting-Robertson drag or viscous spreading, where the disc's effective viscosity is due to self-gravity wakes. For discs with masses >10^26 g, located in the outer parts of the tidal disruption zone, viscous spreading dominates the evolution, and mass is transported both in- and outwards. When outwards-spreading material flows beyond the Roche limit, it coagulates into new (minor) planets in a process analogous to the ongoing formation of moonlets at the outer edge of Saturn's rings. The newly formed bodies migrate outwards by exchanging angular momentum with the disc and coalesce into larger objects through mutual collisions. Eventually, the disc's Roche-limit overflow recycles tens of percent of the original disc mass; most ends up in a single large body near 2:1 mean-motion resonance with the disc's outer edge. Hence, the recycling of a tidally disrupted super-Earth, for example, could yield an Earth-mass planet on a ~10-h orbit, located in the habitable zone for 2-to-10-Gyr-old white dwarfs. The recycling process also creates a population of smaller bodies just outside the Roche limit, which may explain the minor planets recently postulated to orbit WD 1145+017.

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A Complete ALMA Map of the Fomalhaut Debris Disk

We present ALMA mosaic observations at 1.3 mm (223 GHz) of the Fomalhaut system with a sensitivity of 14 $μ$Jy/beam. These observations provide the first millimeter map of the continuum dust emission from the complete outer debris disk with uniform sensitivity, enabling the first conclusive detection of apocenter glow. We adopt a MCMC modeling approach that accounts for the eccentric orbital parameters of a collection of particles within the disk. The outer belt is radially confined with an inner edge of $136.3\pm0.9$ AU and width of $13.5\pm1.8$ AU. We determine a best-fit eccentricity of $0.12\pm0.01$. Assuming a size distribution power law index of $q=3.46\pm 0.09$, we constrain the dust absorptivity power law index $β$ to be $0.9<β<1.5$. The geometry of the disk is robustly constrained with inclination $65.\!\!^\circ6\pm0.\!\!^\circ3$, position angle $337.\!\!^\circ9\pm0.\!\!^\circ3$, and argument of periastron $22.\!\!^\circ5\pm4.\!\!^\circ3$. Our observations do not confirm any of the azimuthal features found in previous imaging studies of the disk with HST, SCUBA, and ALMA. However, we cannot rule out structures $\leq10$ AU in size or which only affect smaller grains. The central star is clearly detected with a flux density of $0.75\pm0.02$ mJy, significantly lower than predicted by current photospheric models. We discuss the implications of these observations for the directly imaged Fomalhaut b and the inner dust belt detected at infrared wavelengths.

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The unseen planets of double belt debris disk systems

The gap between two component debris disks is often taken to be carved by intervening planets scattering away the remnant planetesimals. We employ N-body simulations to determine how the time needed to clear the gap depends on the location of the gap and the mass of the planets. We invert this relation, and provide an equation for the minimum planet mass, and another for the expected number of such planets, that must be present to produce an observed gap for a star of a given age. We show how this can be combined with upper limits on the planetary system from direct imaging non-detections (such as with GPI or SPHERE) to produce approximate knowledge of the planetary system.

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Planet Scattering Around Binaries: Ejections, Not Collisions

Transiting circumbinary planets discovered by Kepler provide unique insight into binary star and planet formation. Several features of this new found population, for example the apparent pile-up of planets near the innermost stable orbit, may distinguish between formation theories. In this work, we determine how planet-planet scattering shapes planetary systems around binaries as compared to single stars. In particular, we look for signatures that arise due to differences in dynamical evolution in binary systems. We carry out a parameter study of N-body scattering simulations for four distinct planet populations around both binary and single stars. While binarity has little influence on the final system multiplicity or orbital distribution, the presence of a binary dramatically effects the means by which planets are lost from the system. Most circumbinary planets are lost due to ejections rather than planet-planet or planet-star collisions. The most massive planet in the system tends to control the evolution. Systems similar to the only observed multi-planet circumbinary system, Kepler-47, can arise from much more tightly packed, unstable systems. Only extreme initial conditions introduce differences in the final planet populations. Thus, we suggest that any intrinsic differences in the populations are imprinted by formation.

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Forming the Cold Classical Kuiper Belt in a light Disk

Large Kuiper Belt Objects are conventionally thought to have formed out of a massive planetesimal belt that is a few thousand times its current mass. Such a picture, however, is incompatible with multiple lines of evidence. Here, we present a new model for the conglomeration of Cold Classical Kuiper belt objects, out of a solid belt only a few times its current mass, or a few percent of the solid density in a Minimum Mass Solar Nebula. This is made possible by depositing most of the primordial mass in grains of size centimetre or smaller. These grains collide frequently and maintain a dynamically cold belt out of which large bodies grow efficiently: an order-unity fraction of the solid mass can be converted into large bodies, in contrast to the ~0.1% efficiency in conventional models. Such a light belt may represent the true outer edge of the Solar system, and it may have effectively halted the outward migration of Neptune. In addition to the high efficiency, our model can also produce a mass spectrum that peaks at an intermediate size, similar to the observed Cold Classicals, if one includes the effect of cratering collisions. In particular, the observed power-law break observed at ~30 km for Cold Classicals, one that has been interpreted as a result of collisional erosion, may be primordial in origin.

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Conglomeration of kilometre-sized planetesimals

We study the efficiency of forming large bodies, starting from a sea of equal-sized planetesimals. This is likely one of the earlier steps of planet formation and relevant for the formation of the asteroid belt, the Kuiper belt and extra-solar debris disks. Here we consider the case that the seed planetesimals do not collide frequently enough for dynamical collisional to be important (the collisionless limit), using a newly constructed conglomeration code, and by carefully comparing numerical results with analytical scalings. In the absence of collisional cooling, as large bodies grow by accreting small bodies, the velocity dispersion of the small bodies ($u$) is increasingly excited. Growth passes from the well-known run-away stage (when $u$ is higher than the big bodies' hill velocity) to the newly discovered trans-hill stage (when $u$ and big bodies both grow, but $u$ remains at the big bodies' hill velocity). We find, concurring with the analytical understandings developed in Lithwick (2014), as well as previous numerical studies, that a size spectrum $dn/dR \propto R^{-4}$ results, and that the formation efficiency, defined as mass fraction in bodies much larger than the initial size, is $\sim {\mathrm{ a \,\, few}}\times R_\odot/a$, or $\sim 10^{-3}$ at the distance of the Kuiper belt. We argue that this extreme inefficiency invalidates the conventional conglomeration model for the formation of both our Kuiper belt and extra-solar debris disks. New theories, possibly involving direct gravitational collapse, or strong collisional cooling of small planetesimals, are required.

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