arXiv subjects

Andrew T. T. McRae

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew T. T. McRae.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Improved rainfall forecasts in daily use over East Africa

Ensemble forecasting has proven to be a vital tool for predicting extreme, life-threatening or only partially predictable weather events. As well as providing probabilistic products, individual ensemble members provide context and realisations of possible extreme weather. However, many National Meteorological Services in East Africa do not have the computing resources to enable them to run their local area models in ensemble mode over the full period of the two-week medium range. In this paper we test the performance of a forecast system, comprising the global ECMWF ensemble forecast, post-processed using cGAN, a neural network model, and forecasts calibrated using IDR, a recent statistical method, against the probabilistic climatology. cGAN provides comparable levels of probabilistic skill as IDR applied to the ECMWF ensemble or IDR applied to the machine-learning models FuXi and GraphCast. These methods improve the raw ECMWF ensemble forecast substantially, which is itself an improvement on deterministic forecasts. The ability of cGAN to produce individual realisations of future rainfall was important when assessed in an operational context by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Kenya and Ethiopia. Moreover, in common with IDR, cGAN is cheap to train/run and requires no additional post-processing. It is run on laptops to generate many thousands of ensemble members, making it suitable for Meteorological Services with limited computational facilities.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Further analysis of cGAN: A system for Generative Deep Learning Post-processing of Precipitation

The conditional generative adversarial rainfall model "cGAN" developed for the UK \cite{Harris22} was trained to post-process into an ensemble and downscale ERA5 rainfall to 1km resolution over three regions of the USA and the UK. Relative to radar data (stage IV and NIMROD), the quality of the forecast rainfall distribution was quantified locally at each grid point and between grid points using the spatial correlation structure. Despite only having information from a single lower quality analysis, the ensembles of post processed rainfall produced were found to be competitive with IFS ensemble forecasts with lead times of between 8 and 16 hours. Comparison to the original cGAN trained on the UK using the IFS HRES forecast indicates that improved training forecasts result in improved post-processing. The cGAN models were additionally applied to the regions that they were not trained on. Each model performed well in their own region indicating that each model is somewhat region specific. However the model trained on the Washington DC, Atlantic coast, region achieved good scores across the USA and was competitive over the UK. There are more overall rainfall events spread over the whole region so the improved scores might be simply due to increased data. A model was therefore trained using data from all four regions which then outperformed the models trained locally.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

A Generative Deep Learning Approach to Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation Forecasts

Despite continuous improvements, precipitation forecasts are still not as accurate and reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major contributing factor to this is that several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather models. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been demonstrated by the computer vision community to be successful at super-resolution problems, i.e., learning to add fine-scale structure to coarse images. Leinonen et al. (2020) previously applied a GAN to produce ensembles of reconstructed high-resolution atmospheric fields, given coarsened input data. In this paper, we demonstrate this approach can be extended to the more challenging problem of increasing the accuracy and resolution of comparatively low-resolution input from a weather forecasting model, using high-resolution radar measurements as a "ground truth". The neural network must learn to add resolution and structure whilst accounting for non-negligible forecast error. We show that GANs and VAE-GANs can match the statistical properties of state-of-the-art pointwise post-processing methods whilst creating high-resolution, spatially coherent precipitation maps. Our model compares favourably to the best existing downscaling methods in both pixel-wise and pooled CRPS scores, power spectrum information and rank histograms (used to assess calibration). We test our models and show that they perform in a range of scenarios, including heavy rainfall.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Using reduced-precision arithmetic in the adjoint model of MITgcm

In recent years, it has been convincingly shown that weather forecasting models can be run in single-precision arithmetic. Several models or components thereof have been tested with even lower precision than this. This previous work has largely focused on the main nonlinear `forward' model. A nonlinear model (in weather forecasting or otherwise) can have corresponding tangent linear and adjoint models, which are used in 4D variational data assimilation. The linearised models are plausibly far more sensitive to reductions in numerical precision since unbounded error growth can occur with no possibility of nonlinear saturation. In this paper, we present a geophysical experiment that makes use of an adjoint model to calculate sensitivities and perform optimisation. Using software emulation, we investigate the effect of degrading the numerical precision of the adjoint model. We find that reasonable results are obtained with as few as 10 significand bits, equal to the significand precision in the IEEE half-precision standard.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2018

The scaling and skewness of optimally transported meshes on the sphere

In the context of numerical solution of PDEs, dynamic mesh redistribution methods (r-adaptive methods) are an important procedure for increasing the resolution in regions of interest, without modifying the connectivity of the mesh. Key to the success of these methods is that the mesh should be sufficiently refined (locally) and flexible in order to resolve evolving solution features, but at the same time not introduce errors through skewness and lack of regularity. Some state-of-the-art methods are bottom-up in that they attempt to prescribe both the local cell size and the alignment to features of the solution. However, the resulting problem is overdetermined, necessitating a compromise between these conflicting requirements. An alternative approach, described in this paper, is to prescribe only the local cell size and augment this an optimal transport condition to provide global regularity. This leads to a robust and flexible algorithm for generating meshes fitted to an evolving solution, with minimal need for tuning parameters. Of particular interest for geophysical modelling are meshes constructed on the surface of the sphere. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that meshes generated on the sphere using this optimal transport approach have good a-priori regularity and that the meshes produced are naturally aligned to various simple features. It is further shown that the sphere's intrinsic curvature leads to more regular meshes than the plane. In addition to these general results, we provide a wide range of examples relevant to practical applications, to showcase the behaviour of optimally transported meshes on the sphere. These range from axisymmetric cases that can be solved analytically to more general examples that are tackled numerically. Evaluation of the singular values and singular vectors of the mesh transformation provides a quantitative measure of the mesh aniso...

math.NA↗

arXiv2017

Optimal-transport-based mesh adaptivity on the plane and sphere using finite elements

In moving mesh methods, the underlying mesh is dynamically adapted without changing the connectivity of the mesh. We specifically consider the generation of meshes which are adapted to a scalar monitor function through equidistribution. Together with an optimal transport condition, this leads to a Monge-Ampère equation for a scalar mesh potential. We adapt an existing finite element scheme for the standard Monge-Ampère equation to this mesh generation problem; this is a mixed finite element scheme, in which an extra discrete variable is introduced to represent the Hessian matrix of second derivatives. The problem we consider has additional nonlinearities over the basic Monge-Ampère equation due to the implicit dependence of the monitor function on the resulting mesh. We also derive the equivalent Monge-Ampère-like equation for generating meshes on the sphere. The finite element scheme is extended to the sphere, and we provide numerical examples. All numerical experiments are performed using the open-source finite element framework Firedrake.

math.NA↗

arXiv2016

A structure-exploiting numbering algorithm for finite elements on extruded meshes, and its performance evaluation in Firedrake

We present a generic algorithm for numbering and then efficiently iterating over the data values attached to an extruded mesh. An extruded mesh is formed by replicating an existing mesh, assumed to be unstructured, to form layers of prismatic cells. Applications of extruded meshes include, but are not limited to, the representation of 3D high aspect ratio domains employed by geophysical finite element simulations. These meshes are structured in the extruded direction. The algorithm presented here exploits this structure to avoid the performance penalty traditionally associated with unstructured meshes. We evaluate the implementation of this algorithm in the Firedrake finite element system on a range of low compute intensity operations which constitute worst cases for data layout performance exploration. The experiments show that having structure along the extruded direction enables the cost of the indirect data accesses to be amortized after 10-20 layers as long as the underlying mesh is well-ordered. We characterise the resulting spatial and temporal reuse in a representative set of both continuous-Galerkin and discontinuous-Galerkin discretisations. On meshes with realistic numbers of layers the performance achieved is between 70% and 90% of a theoretical hardware-specific limit.

cs.MS↗

arXiv2016

Firedrake: automating the finite element method by composing abstractions

Firedrake is a new tool for automating the numerical solution of partial differential equations. Firedrake adopts the domain-specific language for the finite element method of the FEniCS project, but with a pure Python runtime-only implementation centred on the composition of several existing and new abstractions for particular aspects of scientific computing. The result is a more complete separation of concerns which eases the incorporation of separate contributions from computer scientists, numerical analysts and application specialists. These contributions may add functionality, or improve performance. Firedrake benefits from automatically applying new optimisations. This includes factorising mixed function spaces, transforming and vectorising inner loops, and intrinsically supporting block matrix operations. Importantly, Firedrake presents a simple public API for escaping the UFL abstraction. This allows users to implement common operations that fall outside pure variational formulations, such as flux-limiters.

cs.MS↗

arXiv2016

Automated generation and symbolic manipulation of tensor product finite elements

We describe and implement a symbolic algebra for scalar and vector-valued finite elements, enabling the computer generation of elements with tensor product structure on quadrilateral, hexahedral and triangular prismatic cells. The algebra is implemented as an extension to the domain-specific language UFL, the Unified Form Language. This allows users to construct many finite element spaces beyond those supported by existing software packages. We have made corresponding extensions to FIAT, the FInite element Automatic Tabulator, to enable numerical tabulation of such spaces. This tabulation is consequently used during the automatic generation of low-level code that carries out local assembly operations, within the wider context of solving finite element problems posed over such function spaces. We have done this work within the code-generation pipeline of the software package Firedrake; we make use of the full Firedrake package to present numerical examples.

math.NA↗

arXiv2013

Energy- and enstrophy-conserving schemes for the shallow-water equations, based on mimetic finite elements

This paper presents a family of spatial discretisations of the nonlinear rotating shallow-water equations that conserve both energy and potential enstrophy. These are based on two-dimensional mixed finite element methods and hence, unlike some finite difference methods, do not require an orthogonal grid. Numerical verification of the aforementioned properties is also provided.

math.NA↗