arXiv subjects

Andrew Toivonen

Publications and source records attributed to Andrew Toivonen.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz) and S250818k: A Candidate Superkilonova from a Sub-threshold Sub-Solar Gravitational Wave Trigger

On August 18, 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration reported gravitational waves from a sub-threshold binary neutron star merger. If astrophysical, this event would have a surprisingly low chirp mass, suggesting that at least one neutron star was below a solar mass. The Zwicky Transient Facility mapped the coarse localization and discovered a transient, ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz), that was spatially and temporally coincident with the gravitational wave trigger. The first week of follow-up suggested properties reminiscent of a GW170817-like kilonova. Subsequent follow-up suggests properties most similar to a young, stripped-envelope, Type IIb supernova. Although we cannot statistically rule out chance coincidence, we undertake due diligence analysis to explore the possible association between ZTF25abjmnps and S250818k. Theoretical models have been proposed wherein sub-solar neutron star(s) may form (and subsequently merge) via accretion disk fragmentation or core fission inside a core-collapse supernova i.e. a ``superkilonova". Here, we qualitatively discuss our multi-wavelength dataset in the context of the superkilonova picture. Future higher significance gravitational wave detections of sub-solar neutron star mergers with extensive electromagnetic follow-up would conclusively resolve this tantalizing multi-messenger association.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Astrophysical or Terrestrial: Machine learning classification of gravitational-wave candidates using multiple-search information

Low-latency gravitational-wave alerts provide the greater multi-messenger community with information about the candidate events detected by the International Gravitational-Wave Network (IGWN). Prompt release of data products such as the sky localization, false alarm rate (FAR), and $p_\mathrm{astro}$ values allow astronomers to make informed decisions on which candidate gravitational-wave events merit target of opportunity (ToO) follow-up. However, false alarms, often referred to as "glitches", where a gravitational-wave candidate, or trigger, is the result of terrestrial noise, are an inherent part of gravitational-wave searches. In addition, with the presence of multiple gravitational-wave searches, different searches may have varying assessments of the significance of a given trigger. As a complement to quantities such as $p_\mathrm{astro}$, we provide a Machine Learning (ML) based approach to determining whether candidate events are astrophysical or terrestrial in nature, specifically a classifier that utilizes information provided by multiple low-latency search pipelines in its feature space. This classifier has a performance an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.96 and accuracy of 0.90 on the Mock Data Challenge training set and an AUC of 0.93 and accuracy of 0.86 on events from the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)'s and Advanced Virgo (AdVirgo)'s third observing run (O3).

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Low-latency Forecasts of Kilonova Light Curves for Rubin and ZTF

Follow-up of gravitational-wave events by wide-field surveys is a crucial tool for the discovery of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave sources, such as kilonovae. Machine learning tools can play an important role in aiding search efforts. We have developed a public tool to predict kilonova light curves using simulated low-latency alert data from the International Gravitational Wave Network during observing runs 4 (O4) and 5 (O5). It uses a bidirectional long-short-term memory (LSTM) model to forecast kilonova light curves from binary neutron star and neutron star-black hole mergers in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time filters. The model achieves a test mean squared error (MSE) of 0.19 for ZTF filters and 0.22 for Rubin filters, calculated by averaging the squared error over all time steps, filters, and light curves in the test set. We verify the performance of the model against merger events followed-up by the ZTF partnership during O4a and O4b. We also analyze the effect of incorporating skymaps and constraints on physical features such as ejecta mass through a hybrid convolutional neural network and LSTM model. Using ejecta mass, the performance of the model improves to an MSE of 0.1. However, using full skymap information results in slightly lower model performance. Our models are publicly available and can help to add important information to help plan follow-up of candidate events discovered by current and next-generation public surveys.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA neutron star merger candidate S250206dm: Zwicky Transient Facility observations

We present the searches conducted with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) in response to S250206dm, a bona fide event with a false alarm rate of one in 25 years, detected by the International Gravitational Wave Network (IGWN). Although the event is significant, the nature of the compact objects involved remains unclear, with at least one likely neutron star. ZTF covered 68% of the localization region, though we did not identify any likely optical counterpart. We describe the ZTF strategy, potential candidates, and the observations that helped rule out candidates, including sources circulated by other collaborations. Similar to Ahumada et al. 2024, we perform a frequentist analysis, using simsurvey, as well as Bayesian analysis, using nimbus, to quantify the efficiency of our searches. We find that, given the nominal distance to this event of 373$\pm$104 Mpc, our efficiencies are above 10% for KNe brighter than $-17.5$ absolute magnitude. Assuming the optical counterpart known as kilonova (KN) lies within the ZTF footprint, our limits constrain the brightest end of the KN parameter space. Through dedicated radiative transfer simulations of KNe from binary neutron star (BNS) and black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers, we exclude parts of the BNS KN parameter space. Up to 35% of the models with high wind ejecta mass ($M_{\rm wind} \approx 0.13$ M$_{\odot}$) are ruled out when viewed face-on ($\cos\theta_{\rm obs} = 1.0$). Finally, we present a joint analysis using the combined coverage from ZTF and the Gravitational Wave Multimessenger Dark Energy Camera Survey (GW-MMADS). The joint observations cover 73% of the localization region, and the combined efficiency has a stronger impact on rising and slowly fading models, allowing us to rule out 55% of the high-mass KN models viewed face-on.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Electromagnetic Follow-up to Gravitational Wave Events with the UltraViolet EXplorer (UVEX)

The Ultraviolet Explorer (UVEX) is expected to fly in 2030 and will have the opportunity -- and the rapid near/far ultraviolet (UV) capabilities -- to glean unprecedented insight into the bright UV emission present in kilonovae like that of AT 170817gfo, the electromagnetic counterpart to binary neutron star merger GW170817. To do so, it will need to perform prompt target-of-opportunity observations following detection of binary neutron star mergers by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational observatories. We present initial simulations to develop UVEX target-of-opportunity strategies for such events and provide the community with detailed initial estimates of the prospects for and characteristics of UVEX target-of-opportunity observations following gravitational-wave events, considering fiducial scenarios for the fifth and sixth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs. Additionally, in light of the relatively few binary neutron star mergers observed since GW170817, we consider variant target-of-opportunity strategies for UVEX to maximize scientific gain in the case of a lowered binary neutron star merger rate.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

What to expect: kilonova light curve predictions via equation of state marginalization

Efficient multi-messenger observations of gravitational-wave candidates from compact binary coalescence candidate events rely on data products reported in low-latency by the International Gravitational-wave Network (IGWN). While data products such as $\texttt{HasNS}$, the probability of at least one neutron star, and $\texttt{HasRemnant}$, the probability of remnant matter forming after merger, exist, these are not direct observables for a potential kilonova. Here, we present new kilonova light curve and ejecta mass data products derived from merger quantities measured in low latency, by marginalizing over our uncertainty in our understanding of the neutron star equation of state and using measurements of the source properties of the merger, including masses and spins. Two additional types of data products are proposed. The first is the probability of a candidate event having mass ejecta ($m_{\mathrm{ej}}$) greater than $10^{-3} M_\odot$, which we denote as $\texttt{HasEjecta}$. The second are $m_{\mathrm{ej}}$ estimates and accompanying $\texttt{ugrizy}$ and $\texttt{HJK}$ kilonova light curves predictions produced from a surrogate model trained on a grid of kilonova light curves from $\texttt{POSSIS}$, a time-dependent, three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer code. We are developing these data products in the context of the IGWN low-latency alert infrastructure, and will be advocating for their use and release for future detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Searching for gravitational wave optical counterparts with the Zwicky Transient Facility: summary of O4a

During the first half of the fourth observing run (O4a) of the International Gravitational Wave Network (IGWN), the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) conducted a systematic search for kilonova (KN) counterparts to binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) merger candidates. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the five high-significance (FAR < 1 per year) BNS and NSBH candidates in O4a. Our follow-up campaigns relied on both target-of-opportunity observations (ToO) and re-weighting of the nominal survey schedule to maximize coverage. We describe the toolkit we have been developing, Fritz, an instance of SkyPortal, instrumental in coordinating and managing our telescope scheduling, candidate vetting, and follow-up observations through a user-friendly interface. ZTF covered a total of 2841 deg$^2$ within the skymaps of the high-significance GW events, reaching a median depth of g~20.2 mag. We circulated 15 candidates, but found no viable KN counterpart to any of the GW events. Based on the ZTF non-detections of the high-significance events in O4a, we used a Bayesian approach, nimbus, to quantify the posterior probability of KN model parameters that are consistent with our non-detections. Our analysis favors KNe with initial absolute magnitude fainter than -16 mag. The joint posterior probability of a GW170817-like KN associated with all our O4a follow-ups was 64%. Additionally, we use a survey simulation software, simsurvey, to determine that our combined filtered efficiency to detect a GW170817-like KN is 36%, when considering the 5 confirmed astrophysical events in O3 (1 BNS and 4 NSBH), along with our O4a follow-ups. Following Kasliwal et al. (2020), we derived joint constraints on the underlying KN luminosity function based on our O3 and O4a follow-ups, determining that no more than 76% of KNe fading at 1 mag/day can peak at a magnitude brighter than -17.5 mag.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Bayesian real-time classification of multi-messenger electromagnetic and gravitational-wave observations

Because of the electromagnetic radiation produced during the merger, compact binary coalescences with neutron stars may result in multi-messenger observations. In order to follow up on the gravitational-wave signal with electromagnetic telescopes, it is critical to promptly identify the properties of these sources. This identification must rely on the properties of the progenitor source, such as the component masses and spins, as determined by low-latency detection pipelines in real time. The output of these pipelines, however, might be biased, which could decrease the accuracy of parameter recovery. Machine learning algorithms are used to correct this bias. In this work, we revisit this problem and discuss two new implementations of supervised machine learning algorithms, K-Nearest Neighbors and Random Forest, which are able to predict the presence of a neutron star and post-merger matter remnant in low-latency compact binary coalescence searches across different search pipelines and data sets. Additionally, we present a novel approach for calculating the Bayesian probabilities for these two metrics. Instead of metric scores derived from binary machine learning classifiers, our scheme is designed to provide the astronomy community well-defined probabilities. This would deliver a more direct and easily interpretable product to assist electromagnetic telescopes in deciding whether to follow up on gravitational-wave events in real time.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Low-latency gravitational wave alert products and their performance at the time of the fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run

Multi-messenger searches for BNS and NSBH mergers are currently one of the most exciting areas of astronomy. The search for joint electromagnetic and neutrino counterparts to GWs has resumed with O4. To support this effort, public semi-automated data products are sent in near real-time and include localization and source properties to guide complementary observations. In preparation for O4, we have conducted a study using a simulated population of compact binaries and a MDC in the form of a real-time replay to optimize and profile the software infrastructure and scientific deliverables. End-to-end performance was tested, including data ingestion, running online search pipelines, performing annotations, and issuing alerts to the astrophysics community. We present an overview of the low-latency infrastructure and the performance of the data products that are now being released during O4 based on the MDC. We report the expected median latency for the preliminary alert of full bandwidth searches (29.5s) and show consistency and accuracy of released data products using the MDC. For the first time, we report the expected median latency for triggers from early warning searches (-3.1s), which are new in O4 and target neutron star mergers during inspiral phase. This paper provides a performance overview for LVK low-latency alert infrastructure and data products using the MDC and serves as a useful reference for the interpretation of O4 detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Enabling Kilonova Science with Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

Binary neutron star mergers and neutron star-black hole mergers are multi-messenger sources that can be detected in gravitational waves and in electromagnetic radiation. The low electron fraction of neutron star merger ejecta favors the production of heavy elements such as lanthanides and actinides via rapid neutron capture (r-process). The decay of these unstable nuclei powers an infrared-bright transient called a "kilonova". The discovery of a population of kilonovae will allow us to determine if neutron star mergers are the dominant sites for r-process element nucleosynthesis, constrain the equation of state of nuclear matter, and make independent measurements of the Hubble constant. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will have a unique combination of depth, near-infrared sensitivity, and wide field of view. These characteristics will enable Roman's discovery of GW counterparts that will be missed by optical telescopes, such as kilonova that are associated with large distances, high lanthanide fractions, high binary mass-ratios, large dust extinction in the line of sight, or that are observed from equatorial viewing angles. Our analysis suggests to (i) make available a rapid (about 1 week) Target of Opportunity mode for GW follow-up; (ii) include observations of the High Latitude Time-Domain survey footprint in at least two filters (preferably the F158 and F213 filters) with a cadence of < 8 days; (iii) operate in synergy with Rubin Observatory. Following these recommendations, we expect that 1-6 kilonovae can be identified by Roman via ToO observations of well localized (A < 10 sq. deg., 90% C.I.) neutron star mergers during 1.5 years of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA fifth (or about 4-21 in during the sixth) observing run. A sample of 5-40 serendipitously discovered kilonovae can be collected in a 5-year high latitude survey.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Updated observing scenarios and multi-messenger implications for the International Gravitational-wave Network's O4 and O5

An advanced LIGO and Virgo's third observing run brought another binary neutron star merger (BNS) and the first neutron-star black hole mergers. While no confirmed kilonovae were identified in conjunction with any of these events, continued improvements of analyses surrounding GW170817 allow us to project constraints on the Hubble Constant ($H_0$), the Galactic enrichment from $r$-process nucleosynthesis, and ultra-dense matter possible from forthcoming events. Here, we describe the expected constraints based on the latest expected event rates from the international gravitational-wave network (IGWN) and analyses of GW170817. We show the expected detection rate of gravitational waves and their counterparts, as well as how sensitive potential constraints are to the observed numbers of counterparts. We intend this analysis as support for the community when creating scientifically driven electromagnetic follow-up proposals. During the next observing run O4, we predict an annual detection rate of electromagnetic counterparts from BNS of $0.43^{+0.58}_{-0.26}$ ($1.97^{+2.68}_{-1.2}$) for the Zwicky Transient Facility (Rubin Observatory).

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Performance of the low-latency GstLAL inspiral search towards LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA's fourth observing run

GstLAL is a stream-based matched-filtering search pipeline aiming at the prompt discovery of gravitational waves from compact binary coalescences such as the mergers of black holes and neutron stars. Over the past three observation runs by the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (LVK) collaboration, the GstLAL search pipeline has participated in several tens of gravitational wave discoveries. The fourth observing run (O4) is set to begin in May 2023 and is expected to see the discovery of many new and interesting gravitational wave signals which will inform our understanding of astrophysics and cosmology. We describe the current configuration of the GstLAL low-latency search and show its readiness for the upcoming observation run by presenting its performance on a mock data challenge. The mock data challenge includes 40 days of LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, and Virgo strain data along with an injection campaign in order to fully characterize the performance of the search. We find an improved performance in terms of detection rate and significance estimation as compared to that observed in the O3 online analysis. The improvements are attributed to several incremental advances in the likelihood ratio ranking statistic computation and the method of background estimation.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

An updated nuclear-physics and multi-messenger astrophysics framework for binary neutron star mergers

The multi-messenger detection of the gravitational-wave signal GW170817, the corresponding kilonova AT2017gfo and the short gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, as well as the observed afterglow has delivered a scientific breakthrough. For an accurate interpretation of all these different messengers, one requires robust theoretical models that describe the emitted gravitational-wave, the electromagnetic emission, and dense matter reliably. In addition, one needs efficient and accurate computational tools to ensure a correct cross-correlation between the models and the observational data. For this purpose, we have developed the Nuclear-physics and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics framework NMMA. The code allows incorporation of nuclear-physics constraints at low densities as well as X-ray and radio observations of isolated neutron stars. In previous works, the NMMA code has allowed us to constrain the equation of state of supranuclear dense matter, to measure the Hubble constant, and to compare dense-matter physics probed in neutron-star mergers and in heavy-ion collisions, and to classify electromagnetic observations and perform model selection. Here, we show an extension of the NMMA code as a first attempt of analyzing the gravitational-wave signal, the kilonova, and the gamma-ray burst afterglow simultaneously. Incorporating all available information, we estimate the radius of a $1.4M_\odot$ neutron star to be $R=11.98^{+0.35}_{-0.40}$km.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Predicting electromagnetic counterparts using low-latency, gravitational-wave data products

Searches for gravitational-wave counterparts have been going in earnest since GW170817 and the discovery of AT2017gfo. Since then, the lack of detection of other optical counterparts connected to binary neutron star or black hole - neutron star candidates has highlighted the need for a better discrimination criterion to support this effort. At the moment, the low-latency gravitational-wave alerts contain preliminary information about the binary properties and, hence, on whether a detected binary might have an electromagnetic counterpart. The current alert method is a classifier that estimates the probability that there is a debris disc outside the black hole created during the merger as well as the probability of a signal being a binary neutron star, a black hole - neutron star, a binary black hole or of terrestrial origin. In this work, we expand upon this approach to predict both the ejecta properties and provide contours of potential lightcurves for these events in order to improve follow-up observation strategy. The various sources of uncertainty are discussed, and we conclude that our ignorance about the ejecta composition and the insufficient constraint of the binary parameters, by the low-latency pipelines, represent the main limitations. To validate the method, we test our approach on real events from the second and third Advanced LIGO-Virgo observing runs.

astro-ph.HE↗