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Andrey Itkin

Publications and source records attributed to Andrey Itkin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Diagonal Frog meets ADI: trading matrix exponentials for rational maps in the Fokker--Planck equation

A companion paper \cite{ItkinDF2026} introduced the Diagonal Frog (DF) positivity-preserving schemes for anisotropic Fokker--Planck equations, advancing each directional substep by a Krylov-computed matrix exponential, which dominates the cost. Replacing that exponential by a rational map $r(\gamma L)$ reduces the substep to a banded solve, but the positivity argument no longer applies. We prove that for eventually exponentially positive generators the entrywise sign of $r(\gamma L)$ at large steps is decided by a single number, the value $r(\infty)$ taken on infinitely stiff modes. Nonnegativity holds above a computable threshold when $0\le r(\infty)<1$, and at most on a bounded interval, empty or vanishingly narrow in all our tests, when $r(\infty)<0$. The criterion rejects the Crank--Nicolson (trapezoidal) method, where $r(\infty)=-1$, and selects the subdiagonal Pad\'e$(0,2)$ method, which is second order, L-stable and provably positive above an explicit threshold. The resulting DF-ADI scheme costs $O(N)$ per step, keeps the implicit factorized mixed derivative unchanged, is second order in space and time, and conserves discrete mass exactly. In the strong cross-diffusion regime, however, the directional factors demand a step larger than the mixed derivative permits, so the composite second-order scheme is only empirically positive there, and the criterion serves to discriminate the well-behaved multiplicative factors from the stabilizing-correction schemes rather than to guarantee positivity. Against the Krylov exponential it runs ten to thirty-two times faster at matched accuracy in our tests with the gain growing with the mesh. We extend the construction to the backward Kolmogorov equation and to jump-diffusion models.

math.NA

Calibrating Inelastic Markets to Options: The Lean Marketron and the Generalized Langevin Equation

The Marketron model of \cite{HalperinItkin2025Mark} and its option pricing extension in \cite{HalperinItkinMarketron2} suffer from structural non-identifiability: an eighteen-parameter space traps solvers in suboptimal local minima and renders economic quantities unmeasurable. By removing exact scaling gauges and sign symmetries, freezing non-financial parameters by explicit criteria, and adiabatically eliminating the fast hidden signal, we derive a robust nine-parameter reduced model. A Gauss-Newton Hessian with empty null space and a manifold-boundary analysis confirm that the reduced core carries no exact symmetry and admits no further reduction. A diffusive correlation between flow and return innovations captures the short-maturity skew. A staged calibration from the physical measure to the risk-neutral measure, illustrated on SPX options, fits the whole surface with a single parameter set. The same reduction turns the wedge between the physical and pricing values of the flow block into a well-defined market price of flow risk rather than a ridge artifact, identifiable here for the first time, though a single surface constrains its level only weakly. Finally, our analysis reveals that in the Marketron model the log-price obeys a generalized Langevin equation with a closed-form, state-modulated memory kernel, and that the memory variable itself is the exact Markovian lift of this kernel. This mapping also yields a testable condition, the equality of the signal and memory relaxation rates, which on the SPX surface come out well separated, though both weakly identified, placing the fitted market tentatively in the driven, non-equilibrium regime and turning the active-matter reading from an analogy into a falsifiable constraint.

q-fin.CP

Flux-Corrected Diagonal Frog: second order and positivity at all time steps

By Godunov's theorem, linear second-order finite-difference schemes for the Fokker-Planck equation cannot preserve positivity. The Diagonal Frog (DF) framework previously bypassed this barrier using eventual positivity, but required a strict minimum time step. This paper resolves the small-step limitation using a nonlinear extension of the DF solvers. We split the second-order directional operator into a monotone M-matrix core and an antidiffusive flux correction. A Zalesak-type limiter is then applied iteratively within the implicit banded solve. The resulting Flux-Corrected DF (FCDF) schemes (variants A and B) are unconditionally positive across all time steps. Because the limiter acts on fluxes rather than point values, these schemes conserve discrete mass exactly and maintain second-order accuracy. Crucially, the limiter activates only within unresolved layers. This ensures the global $L_1$ convergence remains second-order uniformly in the cell Péclet number, avoiding the first-order degradation seen in the Chang-Cooper scheme. The method's Picard iteration is contractive under a purely convective step restriction. To support arbitrary step sizes, we develop an active-set reformulation. This solves the system using a semismooth Newton iteration, where computational cost scales only with the number of nodes where positivity binds. Finally, we introduce a defect-corrected time stepping approach that restores second-order time accuracy. Numerical experiments on Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and advection-dominated benchmarks confirm our claims.

math.NA

SciPhy Reinforcement Learning for Portfolio Optimization

This paper introduces a dynamic portfolio optimization framework for large institutional investors using Scientific Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning (SciPhyRL). Formulated in continuous time over an extended state space that includes explicit cumulative costs, the approach leverages offline historical data to learn optimal, distribution-aware strategies. A core innovation reduces the optimization challenge to solving an HJB equation by projecting it onto observed trajectories as a pathwise Hamilton-Jacobi equation. This is solved directly from data using PINN in a single offline sweep, eliminating the need for traditional value or policy iteration. To make the method effective at practical short horizons, the control variable is recast from a continuous trading rate to a discrete target holding. This ensures signal-implied positions are reached immediately, while execution costs are evaluated against a microstructure-grounded quadratic price impact model. Evaluated on a $14$-asset ETF universe using an engineered oracle signal, the learned Gibbs policy yields substantial out-of-sample Sharpe ratio improvements over static and myopic baselines. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework successfully translates known signal quality into a robust, multi-period, and cost-aware allocation mechanism with strictly controlled volatility and turnover.

q-fin.PM

Valuing American options and Flexible Forwards contracts in time-dependent models

A flexible forward (FF) is a customized FX hedging instrument that guarantees a fixed exchange rate while letting the holder choose the delivery date within a pre-agreed window. It is therefore an American-style option on timing, and its valuation must respect the volatility skew of the underlying currency pair. We price FF contracts (and, more generally, American options) under a time-inhomogeneous Heston model which captures the forward-skew term structure while preserving analytical tractability through a recursive (matrix) Riccati solution for the joint characteristic function. Extending the integral-equation (decomposition) approach to time-dependent coefficients, we derive a Volterra equation characterizing the early-exercise surface. The expectation in the decomposition formula is evaluated by two complementary spectral methods: a double cosine (COS) expansion of the transition density, and a damped-Sinc (DSINC) local-basis scheme that is more accurate and stays robust when a low Feller ratio or large vol-of-vol induces Gibbs oscillations in the COS series. Benchmarked against a penalty-iteration MCS-ADI finite-difference solver, both methods price a contract in about 1-2 seconds, roughly an order of magnitude faster than the finest finite-difference grid, while DSINC improves median accuracy over COS by about a factor of twelve. The experiments also show that the early-exercise surface is a substantially nonlinear function of the variance, contrary to the linear-in-variance approximation common in earlier work.

q-fin.CP

Diagonal Frog: High-order positivity-preserving FD schemes for anisotropic Fokker-Planck equations

The Fokker-Planck equation is fundamental to statistical mechanics, yet in settings with multiple state variables, anisotropic (cross-) diffusion, and jumps, conventional discretizations frequently produce non-physical negative probability densities. Building on the operator approach of "A. Itkin, Pricing derivatives under Levy models. Modern finite difference and pseudo-differential operators approach, Springer, 2017, ISBN 978-1-4939-6792-6", we introduce a family of "Diagonal Frog" discretizations whose spatial operators are eventually M-matrices (EM-matrices). Although these operators lack a local M-matrix structure, positivity of the directional sub-operators emerges in the spirit of Zeno's paradox: the matrix exponential, assembled as the limit of infinitely many ever-smaller substeps, is provably nonnegative after a short transient even though no single substep is. For the mixed-derivative block, whose generator is not eventually nonnegative, positivity instead rests on a factorized resolvent solver and holds conditionally, on an explicit step-size window; discrete mass is conserved exactly by the splitting for every step size. The resulting schemes are second-order accurate in time and space and require O(m 2 N + m 3) operations per time step, where m is the dimension of the Krylov subspace used to apply the exponential. As stress tests, we solve a two-dimensional anisotropic Fokker-Planck equation in the strong cross-diffusion regime against an exact Gaussian reference, a Kramers escape problem in a double-well potential, and an advection-dominated problem, and observe that the schemes remain stable, nonnegative, and mass-conservative for a wide range of Pécklet numbers (so, don't need any flux limiter). Finally, we extend the construction to multidimensional processes and to the backward Kolmogorov equation with jumps.

math.NA

American options valuation in time-dependent jump-diffusion models via integral equations and characteristic functions

Despite significant advancements in machine learning for derivative pricing, the efficient and accurate valuation of American options remains a persistent challenge due to complex exercise boundaries, near-expiry behavior, and intricate contractual features. This paper extends a semi-analytical approach for pricing American options in time-inhomogeneous models, including pure diffusions, jump-diffusions, and Levy processes. Building on prior work, we derive and solve Volterra integral equations of the second kind to determine the exercise boundary explicitly, offering a computationally superior alternative to traditional finite-difference and Monte Carlo methods. We address key open problems: (1) extending the decomposition method, i.e. splitting the American option price into its European counterpart and an early exercise premium, to general jump-diffusion and Levy models; (2) handling cases where closed-form transition densities are unavailable by leveraging characteristic functions via, e.g., the COS method; and (3) generalizing the framework to multidimensional diffusions. Numerical examples demonstrate the method's efficiency and robustness. Our results underscore the advantages of the integral equation approach for large-scale industrial applications, while resolving some limitations of existing techniques.

q-fin.PR

Semi-analytical pricing of American options with hybrid dividends via integral equations and the GIT method

This paper introduces a semi-analytical method for pricing American options on assets (stocks, ETFs) that pay discrete and/or continuous dividends. The problem is notoriously complex because discrete dividends create abrupt price drops and affect the optimal exercise timing, making traditional continuous-dividend models unsuitable. Our approach utilizes the Generalized Integral Transform (GIT) method introduced by the author and his co-authors in a number of papers, which transforms the pricing problem from a complex partial differential equation with a free boundary into an integral Volterra equation of the second or first kind. In this paper we illustrate this approach by considering a popular GBM model that accounts for discrete cash and proportional dividends using Dirac delta functions. By reframing the problem as an integral equation, we can sequentially solve for the option price and the early exercise boundary, effectively handling the discontinuities caused by the dividends. Our methodology provides a powerful alternative to standard numerical techniques like binomial trees or finite difference methods, which can struggle with the jump conditions of discrete dividends by losing accuracy or performance. Several examples demonstrate that the GIT method is highly accurate and computationally efficient, bypassing the need for extensive computational grids or complex backward induction steps.

q-fin.PR

Marketron Through the Looking Glass: From Equity Dynamics to Option Pricing in Incomplete Markets

The Marketron model, introduced by [Halperin, Itkin, 2025], describes price formation in inelastic markets as the nonlinear diffusion of a quasiparticle (the marketron) in a multidimensional space comprising the log-price $x$, a memory variable $y$ encoding past money flows, and unobservable return predictors $z$. While the original work calibrated the model to S\&P 500 time series data, this paper extends the framework to option markets - a fundamentally distinct challenge due to market incompleteness stemming from non-tradable state variables. We develop a utility-based pricing approach that constructs a risk-adjusted measure via the dual solution of an optimal investment problem. The resulting Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, though computationally formidable, is solved using a novel methodology enabling efficient calibration even on standard laptop hardware. Having done that, we look at the additional question to answer: whether the Marketron model, calibrated to market option prices, can simultaneously reproduce the statistical properties of the underlying asset's log-returns. We discuss our results in view of the long-standing challenge in quantitative finance of developing an unified framework capable of jointly capturing equity returns, option smile dynamics, and potentially volatility index behavior.

q-fin.PR

Floating exercise boundaries for American options in time-inhomogeneous models

This paper examines a semi-analytical approach for pricing American options in time-inhomogeneous models characterized by negative interest rates (for equity/FX) or negative convenience yields (for commodities/cryptocurrencies). Under such conditions, exercise boundaries may exhibit a "floating" structure - dynamically appearing and disappearing. For example, a second exercise boundary could emerge within the computational domain and subsequently both could collapse, demanding specialized pricing methodologies.

q-fin.PR

Semi-analytical pricing of options written on SOFR futures

In this paper, we propose a semi-analytical approach to pricing options on SOFR futures where the underlying SOFR follows a time-dependent CEV model. By definition, these options change their type at the beginning of the reference period: before this time, this is an American option written on a SOFR forward price as an underlying, and after this point, this is an arithmetic Asian option with an American style exercise written on the daily SOFR rates. We develop a new version of the GIT method and solve both problems semi-analytically, obtaining the option price, the exercise boundary, and the option Greeks. This work is intended to address the concern that the transfer from LIBOR to SOFR has resulted in a situation in which the options of the key money market (i.e., futures on the reference rate) are options without any pricing model available. Therefore, the trading in options on 3M SOFR futures currently ends before their reference quarter starts, to eliminate the final metamorphosis into exotic options.

q-fin.CP

Semi-analytic pricing of American options in time-dependent jump-diffusion models with exponential jumps

In this paper we propose a semi-analytic approach to pricing American options for time-dependent jump-diffusions models with exponential jumps The idea of the method is to further generalize our approach developed for pricing barrier, [Itkin et al., 2021], and American, [Carr and Itkin, 2021; Itkin and Muravey, 2023], options in various time-dependent one factor and even stochastic volatility models. Our approach i) allows arbitrary dependencies of the model parameters on time; ii) reduces solution of the pricing problem for American options to a simpler problem of solving a system of an algebraic nonlinear equation for the exercise boundary and a linear Fredholm-Volterra equation for the the option price; iii) the options Greeks solve a similar Fredholm-Volterra linear equation obtained by just differentiating Eq. (25) by the required parameter. Once done, the American option price is presented in close form.

q-fin.PR

The ATM implied skew in the ADO-Heston model

In this paper similar to [P. Carr, A. Itkin, 2019] we construct another Markovian approximation of the rough Heston-like volatility model - the ADO-Heston model. The characteristic function (CF) of the model is derived under both risk-neutral and real measures which is an unsteady three-dimensional PDE with some coefficients being functions of the time $t$ and the Hurst exponent $H$. To replicate known behavior of the market implied skew we proceed with a wise choice of the market price of risk, and then find a closed form expression for the CF of the log-price and the ATM implied skew. Based on the provided example, we claim that the ADO-Heston model (which is a pure diffusion model but with a stochastic mean-reversion speed of the variance process, or a Markovian approximation of the rough Heston model) is able (approximately) to reproduce the known behavior of the vanilla implied skew at small $T$. We conclude that the behavior of our implied volatility skew curve ${\cal S}(T) \propto a(H) T^{b\cdot (H-1/2)}, \, b = const$, is not exactly same as in rough volatility models since $b \ne 1$, but seems to be close enough for all practical values of $T$. Thus, the proposed Markovian model is able to replicate some properties of the corresponding rough volatility model. Similar analysis is provided for the forward starting options where we found that the ATM implied skew for the forward starting options can blow-up for any $s > t$ when $T \to s$. This result, however, contradicts to the observation of [E. Alos, D.G. Lorite, 2021] that Markovian approximation is not able to catch this behavior, so remains the question on which one is closer to reality.

q-fin.CP

American options in time-dependent one-factor models: Semi-analytic pricing, numerical methods and ML support

Semi-analytical pricing of American options in a time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model was presented in [Carr, Itkin, 2020]. It was shown that to obtain these prices one needs to solve (numerically) a nonlinear Volterra integral equation of the second kind to find the exercise boundary (which is a function of the time only). Once this is done, the option prices follow. It was also shown that computationally this method is as efficient as the forward finite difference solver while providing better accuracy and stability. Later this approach called "the Generalized Integral transform" method has been significantly extended by the authors (also, in cooperation with Peter Carr and Alex Lipton) to various time-dependent one factor, and stochastic volatility models as applied to pricing barrier options. However, for American options, despite possible, this was not explicitly reported anywhere. In this paper our goal is to fill this gap and also discuss which numerical method (including those in machine learning) could be efficient to solve the corresponding Volterra integral equations.

q-fin.CP

Multilayer heat equations and their solutions via oscillating integral transforms

By expanding the Dirac delta function in terms of the eigenfunctions of the corresponding Sturm-Liouville problem, we construct some new (oscillating) integral transforms. These transforms are then used to solve various finance, physics, and mathematics problems, which could be characterized by the existence of a multilayer spatial structure and moving (time-dependent) boundaries (internal interfaces) between the layers. Thus, constructed solutions are semi-analytical and extend the authors' previous work (Itkin, Lipton, Muravey, Multilayer heat equations: application to finance, FMF, 1, 2021). However, our new method doesn't duplicate the previous one but provides alternative representations of the solution which have different properties and serve other purposes.

q-fin.PR

Semi-analytical pricing of barrier options in the time-dependent $λ$-SABR model

We extend the approach of Carr, Itkin and Muravey, 2021 for getting semi-analytical prices of barrier options for the time-dependent Heston model with time-dependent barriers by applying it to the so-called $λ$-SABR stochastic volatility model. In doing so we modify the general integral transform method (see Itkin, Lipton, Muravey, Generalized integral transforms in mathematical finance, World Scientific, 2021) and deliver solution of this problem in the form of Fourier-Bessel series. The weights of this series solve a linear mixed Volterra-Fredholm equation (LMVF) of the second kind also derived in the paper. Numerical examples illustrate speed and accuracy of our method which are comparable with those of the finite-difference approach at small maturities and outperform them at high maturities even by using a simplistic implementation of the RBF method for solving the LMVF.

q-fin.PR

Semi-analytic pricing of double barrier options with time-dependent barriers and rebates at hit

We continue a series of papers devoted to construction of semi-analytic solutions for barrier options. These options are written on underlying following some simple one-factor diffusion model, but all the parameters of the model as well as the barriers are time-dependent. We managed to show that these solutions are systematically more efficient for pricing and calibration than, eg., the corresponding finite-difference solvers. In this paper we extend this technique to pricing double barrier options and present two approaches to solving it: the General Integral transform method and the Heat Potential method. Our results confirm that for double barrier options these semi-analytic techniques are also more efficient than the traditional numerical methods used to solve this type of problems.

q-fin.CP

Semi-closed form prices of barrier options in the Hull-White model

In this paper we derive semi-closed form prices of barrier (perhaps, time-dependent) options for the Hull-White model, ie., where the underlying follows a time-dependent OU process with a mean-reverting drift. Our approach is similar to that in (Carr and Itkin, 2020) where the method of generalized integral transform is applied to pricing barrier options in the time-dependent OU model, but extends it to an infinite domain (which is an unsolved problem yet). Alternatively, we use the method of heat potentials for solving the same problems. By semi-closed solution we mean that first, we need to solve numerically a linear Volterra equation of the first kind, and then the option price is represented as a one-dimensional integral. Our analysis shows that computationally our method is more efficient than the backward and even forward finite difference methods (if one uses them to solve those problems), while providing better accuracy and stability.

q-fin.CP