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Andrey Y. Lokhov

Publications and source records attributed to Andrey Y. Lokhov.

49 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Information Theoretic Optimal Learning of Gaussian Graphical Models

What is the optimal number of independent observations from which a sparse Gaussian Graphical Model can be correctly recovered? Information-theoretic arguments provide a lower bound on the minimum number of samples necessary to perfectly identify the support of any multivariate normal distribution as a function of model parameters. For a model defined on a sparse graph with $p$ nodes, a maximum degree $d$ and minimum normalized edge strength $κ$, this necessary number of samples scales at least as $d \log p/κ^2$. The sample complexity requirements of existing methods for perfect graph reconstruction exhibit dependency on additional parameters that do not enter in the lower bound. The question of whether the lower bound is tight and achievable by a polynomial time algorithm remains open. In this paper, we constructively answer this question and propose an algorithm, termed DICE, whose sample complexity matches the information-theoretic lower bound up to a universal constant factor. We also propose a related algorithm SLICE that has a slightly higher sample complexity, but can be implemented as a mixed integer quadratic program which makes it attractive in practice. Importantly, SLICE retains a critical advantage of DICE in that its sample complexity only depends on quantities present in the information theoretic lower bound. We anticipate that this result will stimulate future search of computationally efficient sample-optimal algorithms.

cs.LG↗

Optimal structure and parameter learning of Ising models

Reconstruction of structure and parameters of an Ising model from binary samples is a problem of practical importance in a variety of disciplines, ranging from statistical physics and computational biology to image processing and machine learning. The focus of the research community shifted towards developing universal reconstruction algorithms which are both computationally efficient and require the minimal amount of expensive data. We introduce a new method, Interaction Screening, which accurately estimates the model parameters using local optimization problems. The algorithm provably achieves perfect graph structure recovery with an information-theoretically optimal number of samples, notably in the low-temperature regime which is known to be the hardest for learning. The efficacy of Interaction Screening is assessed through extensive numerical tests on synthetic Ising models of various topologies with different types of interactions, as well as on a real data produced by a D-Wave quantum computer. This study shows that the Interaction Screening method is an exact, tractable and optimal technique universally solving the inverse Ising problem.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

Online Learning of Power Transmission Dynamics

We consider the problem of reconstructing the dynamic state matrix of transmission power grids from time-stamped PMU measurements in the regime of ambient fluctuations. Using a maximum likelihood based approach, we construct a family of convex estimators that adapt to the structure of the problem depending on the available prior information. The proposed method is fully data-driven and does not assume any knowledge of system parameters. It can be implemented in near real-time and requires a small amount of data. Our learning algorithms can be used for model validation and calibration, and can also be applied to related problems of system stability, detection of forced oscillations, generation re-dispatch, as well as to the estimation of the system state.

eess.SY↗

Interaction Screening: Efficient and Sample-Optimal Learning of Ising Models

We consider the problem of learning the underlying graph of an unknown Ising model on p spins from a collection of i.i.d. samples generated from the model. We suggest a new estimator that is computationally efficient and requires a number of samples that is near-optimal with respect to previously established information-theoretic lower-bound. Our statistical estimator has a physical interpretation in terms of "interaction screening". The estimator is consistent and is efficiently implemented using convex optimization. We prove that with appropriate regularization, the estimator recovers the underlying graph using a number of samples that is logarithmic in the system size p and exponential in the maximum coupling-intensity and maximum node-degree.

cs.LG↗

Reconstructing parameters of spreading models from partial observations

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for prediction, optimization, and control of diffusion dynamics. Unfortunately, in most cases the transmission rates are unknown and need to be reconstructed from the spreading data. Moreover, in realistic settings it is impossible to monitor the state of each node at every time, and thus the data is highly incomplete. We introduce an efficient dynamic message-passing algorithm, which is able to reconstruct parameters of the spreading model given only partial information on the activation times of nodes in the network. The method is generalizable to a large class of dynamic models, as well to the case of temporal graphs.

cs.SI↗

Optimal Deployment of Resources for Maximizing Impact in Spreading Processes

The effective use of limited resources for controlling spreading processes on networks is of prime significance in diverse contexts, ranging from the identification of "influential spreaders" for maximizing information dissemination and targeted interventions in regulatory networks, to the development of mitigation policies for infectious diseases and financial contagion in economic systems. Solutions for these optimization tasks that are based purely on topological arguments are not fully satisfactory; in realistic settings the problem is often characterized by heterogeneous interactions and requires interventions over a finite time window via a restricted set of controllable nodes. The optimal distribution of available resources hence results from an interplay between network topology and spreading dynamics. We show how these problems can be addressed as particular instances of a universal analytical framework based on a scalable dynamic message-passing approach and demonstrate the efficacy of the method on a variety of real-world examples.

cs.SI↗

Detection of Cyber-Physical Faults and Intrusions from Physical Correlations

Cyber-physical systems are critical infrastructures that are crucial both to the reliable delivery of resources such as energy, and to the stable functioning of automatic and control architectures. These systems are composed of interdependent physical, control and communications networks described by disparate mathematical models creating scientific challenges that go well beyond the modeling and analysis of the individual networks. A key challenge in cyber-physical defense is a fast online detection and localization of faults and intrusions without prior knowledge of the failure type. We describe a set of techniques for the efficient identification of faults from correlations in physical signals, assuming only a minimal amount of available system information. The performance of our detection method is illustrated on data collected from a large building automation system.

eess.SY↗

Efficient reconstruction of transmission probabilities in a spreading process from partial observations

An important problem of reconstruction of diffusion network and transmission probabilities from the data has attracted a considerable attention in the past several years. A number of recent papers introduced efficient algorithms for the estimation of spreading parameters, based on the maximization of the likelihood of observed cascades, assuming that the full information for all the nodes in the network is available. In this work, we focus on a more realistic and restricted scenario, in which only a partial information on the cascades is available: either the set of activation times for a limited number of nodes, or the states of nodes for a subset of observation times. To tackle this problem, we first introduce a framework based on the maximization of the likelihood of the incomplete diffusion trace. However, we argue that the computation of this incomplete likelihood is a computationally hard problem, and show that a fast and robust reconstruction of transmission probabilities in sparse networks can be achieved with a new algorithm based on recently introduced dynamic message-passing equations for the spreading processes. The suggested approach can be easily generalized to a large class of discrete and continuous dynamic models, as well as to the cases of dynamically-changing networks and noisy information.

physics.soc-ph↗

Dynamic message-passing equations for models with unidirectional dynamics

Understanding and quantifying the dynamics of disordered out-of-equilibrium models is an important problem in many branches of science. Using the dynamic cavity method on time trajectories, we construct a general procedure for deriving the dynamic message-passing equations for a large class of models with unidirectional dynamics, which includes the zero-temperature random field Ising model, the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and rumor spreading models. We show that unidirectionality of the dynamics is the key ingredient that makes the problem solvable. These equations are applicable to single instances of the corresponding problems with arbitrary initial conditions, and are asymptotically exact for problems defined on locally tree-like graphs. When applied to real-world networks, they generically provide a good analytic approximation of the real dynamics.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

Topological transition in disordered planar matching: combinatorial arcs expansion

In this paper, we investigate analytically the properties of the disordered Bernoulli model of planar matching. This model is characterized by a topological phase transition, yielding complete planar matching solutions only above a critical density threshold. We develop a combinatorial procedure of arcs expansion that explicitly takes into account the contribution of short arcs, and allows to obtain an accurate analytical estimation of the critical value by reducing the global constrained problem to a set of local ones. As an application to a toy representation of the RNA secondary structures, we suggest generalized models that incorporate a one-to-one correspondence between the contact matrix and the RNA-type sequence, thus giving sense to the notion of effective non-integer alphabets.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

A cavity approach to optimization and inverse dynamical problems

In these two lectures we shall discuss how the cavity approach can be used efficiently to study optimization problems with global (topological) constraints and how the same techniques can be generalized to study inverse problems in irreversible dynamical processes. These two classes of problems are formally very similar: they both require an efficient procedure to trace over all trajectories of either auxiliary variables which enforce global constraints, or directly dynamical variables defining the inverse dynamical problems. We will mention three basic examples, namely the Minimum Steiner Tree problem, the inverse threshold linear dynamical problem, and the patient-zero problem in epidemic cascades. All these examples are root problems in optimization and inference over networks. They appear in many modern applications and in a variety of different contexts. Credit for these results should be shared with A. Braunstein, A. Ramezanpour, F. Altarelli, L. Dall'Asta, I. Biazzo and A. Lage-Castellanos.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

Inferring the origin of an epidemic with a dynamic message-passing algorithm

We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of computer or social networks. We assume that the epidemic spread follows the most commonly used susceptible-infected-recovered model. We introduce an inference algorithm based on dynamic message-passing equations, and we show that it leads to significant improvement of performance compared to existing approaches. Importantly, this algorithm remains efficient in the case where one knows the state of only a fraction of nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗

New phase transition in random planar diagrams and RNA-type matching

We study the planar matching problem, defined by a symmetric random matrix with independent identically distributed entries, taking values 0 and 1. We show that the existence of a perfect planar matching structure is possible only above a certain critical density, $p_{c}$, of allowed contacts (i.e. of '1'). Using a formulation of the problem in terms of Dyck paths and a matrix model of planar contact structures, we provide an analytical estimation for the value of the transition point, $p_{c}$, in the thermodynamic limit. This estimation is close to the critical value, $p_{c} \approx 0.379$, obtained in numerical simulations based on an exact dynamical programming algorithm. We characterize the corresponding critical behavior of the model and discuss the relation of the perfect-imperfect matching transition to the known molten-glass transition in the context of random RNA secondary structure's formation. In particular, we provide strong evidence supporting the conjecture that the molten-glass transition at T=0 occurs at $p_{c}$.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗