arXiv subjects

Andrzej Jarynowski

Publications and source records attributed to Andrzej Jarynowski.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

Perception of emergent epidemic of COVID-2019 / SARS CoV-2 on the Polish Internet

We study the perception of COVID-2019 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet (on Twitter, Google, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry) from January 2020 to 12.03.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.2020). To this end we utilize data mining, social network analysis, natural language processing techniques. Each examined internet platform was analyzed for representativeness and composition of the target group. We identified three temporal major cluster of the interest before disease introduction on the topic COVID-2019: China- and Italy-related peaks on all platforms, as well as a peak on social media related to the recent special law on combating COVID-2019. Besides, there was a peak in interest on the day of officially confirmed introduction as well as an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government declared war against disease with a massive mitigation program. From sociolingistic perspective, we found that concepts and issues of threat, fear and prevention prevailed before introduction. After introduction, practical concepts about disease and epidemic dominate. We have found out that Twitter reflected the structural division of the Polish political sphere. We were able to identify clear communities of governing party, mainstream oppostition and protestant group and potential sources of misinformation. We have also detected bluring boundaries between comminities after disease introduction.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Modeling the ASF (African Swine Fever) spread till summer 2017 and risk assessment for Poland

African Swine Fever (ASF) is viral infection which causes acute disease in domestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease in humans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming, is substantial. Recent rapid propagation of the (ASF) from East to West of Europe encouraged us to prepare risk assessment for Poland. The early growth estimation can be easily done by matching incidence trajectory to the exponential function, resulting in the approximation of the force of infection. With these calculations the basic reproduction rate of the epidemic, the effective outbreaks detection and elimination times could be estimated. In regression mode, 380 Polish counties (poviats) have been analysed, where 18 (located in Northeast Poland) have been affected (until August 2017) for spatial propagation (risk assessment for future). Mathematical model has been applied by taking into account: swine amount significance, disease vectors (wild boards) significance. We use pseudogravitational models of short and longrange interactions referring to the socio-migratory behavior of wild boars and the pork production chain significance. Spatial modeling in a certain range of parameters proves the existence of a natural protective barrier within boarders of the Congress Poland. The spread of the disease to the Greater Poland should result in the accelerated outbreak of ASF production chain. In the preliminary setup, we perform regression analysis, network outbreak investigation, early epidemic growth estimation and simulate landscape-based propagation.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

Collapse of cooperation and corruption in a mathematical model within game theory including Moldovan case study (Homo Sociologicus vs Homo Economicus)

A simple model from game theory, which can imitate a mechanism of corruption and cooperation patterns, is proposed. The settings are divided into two studies with examples related to safety of Moldovan economy. In Homo Economicus world, players seem to act in rational way and decisions are driven by payouts. In Homo Sociologicus world decisions are described by players acquiring reputation and evolving altruism, which in turn determine their choice of strategy (evolution of cooperation). I shall discuss both modeling approaches of Prisoner Dilemma, to understand collapse of cooperation and increase of corruption in postcommunistic countries as Republic of Moldova. Possible more efficient for society outcomes (fairness equilibrium) are also discussed.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Single parameter model of marriage divorce dynamics with countries classification

We investigate a marriage divorces problem via agent - based modeling. Current value of socio-economic pressure p (main model parameter) drives the dynamic of first marriage, remarriage or spontaneously marriage breaks up. Model reflects the behavior of the heterosexual population (frequency of changing partners, the ratio of singles in society). Theoretical agent-based simulation (with population approaches, e. g. births and deaths) are supplemented by historical values of divorces marriages in various countries of the world from United Nation Registry and World Value Survey. In the model, agents have a list of their attributes and preference of a potential partner with Manhattan distance measure applied as a matching function. In the deterministic part of the model randomly selected agents could entry into a new relationship, or exchange partners, with respect to the matching distance and pressure parameter. Spouses could also spontaneously fall apart with a pressure depended probability. This simple model, although it assumes homogeneity of agents (on bipartite graph), and has only one key parameter, gives estimate of the socio-economic pressure values for different societies at given time point, knowing the frequency of changing partners, the percentage of married in society.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Internet - assisted risk assessment of infectious diseases in women sexual and reproductive health

We develop open source infection risk calculators for patients and healthcare professionals as apps for hospital acquired infections (during child-delivery) and sexually transmitted infections (like HIV). Advanced versions of ehealth in non-communicable diseases do not apply to epidemiology much. There is, however, no infection risk calculator in the Polish Internet so far, despite the existence of data that may be applied to create such a tool. The algorithms involve data from Information Systems (like HIS in hospitals) and surveys by applying mathematical modelling, Bayesian inference, logistic regressions, covariance analysis and social network analysis. Finally, user may fill or import data from Information System to obtain risk assessment and test different settings to learn overall risk. The most promising risk calculator is developed for Healthcare-associated infections in modes for patient hospital sanitary inspection. The most extended version for hospital epidemiologists may include many layers of hospital interactions by agent-based modeling. Simplified version of calculator is dedicated to patients that require personalized hospitalization history of pregnancy described by questions represented by quantitative and qualitative variables. Patients receive risk assessment from interactive web application with additional description about modifiable risk factors. We also provide solution for sexually transmitted infections like HIV. The results of calculations with meaningful description and percentage chances are presented in real-time to interested users. Finally, user fills the form to obtain risk assessment for given settings.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2016

Social Networks Analysis in Discovering the Narrative Structure of Literary Fiction

In our paper we would like to make a cross-disciplinary leap and use the tools of network theory to understand and explore narrative structure in literary fiction, an approach that is still underestimated. However, the systems in fiction are sensitive to readers subjectivity and attention must to be paid to different methods of extracting networks. The project aims at investigating into different ways social interactions are read in texts by comparing networks produced by automated algorithms-natural language processing with those created by surveying more subjective human responses. Conversation networks from fiction have been already extracted by scientists, but the more general framework surrounding these interactions was missing. We propose several NLP methods for detecting interactions and test them against a range of human perceptions. In doing so, we have pointed to some limitations of using network analysis to test literary theory, e.g. interaction, which corresponds to the plot, does not form climax.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Which activation function of cooperation describes human behavior?

Properties of cooperation's probability function in Prisoner`s Dilemma have impact on evolution of game. Basic model defines that probability of cooperation depends linearly, both on the player's altruism and the co-player's reputation. I propose modification of activation function to smooth one (hyperbolic tangent with scaling parameter a, which corresponds to its shape) and observe three phases for different range of a. (1) For small a, strategies seem to randomly change in time and situation of mixed choices (one cooperates and second defects) dominate. (2) For medium a, players choose only one strategy for given period of time (the common state can switch to opposite one with some probability). (3) For large a, mixed strategy (once defect, once cooperate) is coexisting with common strategies and no change is allowed. I believe that proposed function characterizes better socio-economical phenomena and especially phase 1 and 2 contain most of human behavior.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Influence of temporal aspects and age-correlations on the process of opinion formation based on Polish contact survey

On the basis of the experimental data concerning interactions between humans the process of Ising-based model of opinion formation in a social network was investigated. In the paper the data concerning human social activity, i.e. frequency and duration time of interpersonal interactions as well as age correlations - homophily are presented in comparison to base line homogeneous, static and uniform mixing. It is known from previous studies that number of contact and average age of nearest neighbors are highly correlated with age of an individual. Such real, assortative patterns usually speed up processes (like epidemic spread) on the networks, but here it only plays a role for small social temperature values (by reducing `freezing by heating' effect). A real structure of contacts affects processes in many various studies in different way, however here it causes stronger (dynamic) and smoother (durations) susceptibility on external field. Moreover, our research shows that the cross interactions between contact frequency and its duration impose the significant increase in critical temperature.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Diffusion paths between product life-cycles in European phonographic markets

We have investigated the product life-cycles of almost 17 000 hit singles performed on the 12 biggest national phonographic markets in Europe including: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. We have considered weekly singles charts from the last 50 years (1966-2015) in each country. We analyze the spread of hit singles popularity (chart topping) as an epidemiological process performed on various European countries. Popular hit singles are contagious from one country to another. Thus, we consider time delays between the initial hit single release and reaching the highest position on consecutive national singles charts. We create directed network of countries representing transitions of hit singles popularity between countries. It is obtained by simulating the most likely paths and picking up the most frequent links. A country of initial hit single release is considered as a source of infection. Our algorithm builds up spanning trees by attaching new nodes. The probability of attachment depends on: 1) new nodes immunity 2) infectivity of previous nodes from the tree. Thus we obtain network of popularity spread with a hub the UK, a bridge the Netherlands and outliers Italy and Spain. We have found a characteristic topology of hit singles popularity spread. The positive correlation between this network and geographic or cultural grid-map of Europe is also observed. However, the network of popularity spread has some typical properties of complex networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Exploring Arsenic danger awareness in the Polish Copper Basin via network simulation - preliminary results

Information spread plays crucial role in risk management in case of environmental danger. The structure of local society may be well described by social network analysis. We have investigated the role of hubs within that concept. In case of danger, there are two different strategies of information management: 1) information spread that leads to awareness of the whole society 2) keeping the whole information in secret under control that leads to a partial social awareness, available to a small number of people only. In our model, the probability of information spread between two nodes is inverse proportional to connectivity of the next node because people who have a lot of connections are more immune. We have applied agent-based modelling on Barabasi Albert networks to explore various scenarios of information spread. We have considered recent arsenic environmental danger in Głogów and Legnica (Copper Basin) according to the official available data (2015 - 2016) from social network analysis point of view. We have considered various levels of environmental danger. Despite blocking of information by hubs, the successful information spread is possible when levels of danger are high enough. The perception and impression of information spread by society is also.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

HPV and cervical cancer in Moldova, epidemiological model with intervention cost vs benefit and effectiveness analysis

Human papillomavirus, or HPV, is a sexually transmittable virus infection, which is necessary risk factor for developing cervical cancer, first most common type of cancer in working age women in Moldova. We observe both behavioral change (sexuality increase) and demographical change (population ageing). We used data since 1998 (Moldovan peace treaty) to adjust model parameter and we project till around 2030 (for vaccination till 2050). According to provided information, interdisciplinary model was proposed. It iss set of deterministic differential equations. Stochasticity was introduced in sexual partner change rates. The model has aggregated the most important paths of infection, cancer development and prevention scenarios (more than 100 equations and 200 parameters). Moldovan cervical cancer perspective looks much better, than in central western Europe countries, because of relatively young society. In our setup, obligatory vaccination seems to not be so crucial (for none of realistic scenarios increase of cancer cases is possible) for public health, as in most countries in European Union. However, screening practice could be verified in terms of efficiency, when cost benefit calculation would be done. We propose more optimal screening guidelines (with prevention cost 5 -10k EUR per QALY), which could provide saving perspective in 10-15 year in range 150-300k EUR yearly. Targeted vaccination could be also consider, because costs are similar to high frequencies screening schema with the same cancer cases projection. However, some positive side effects of vaccination as reduction of pathogen circulation in society, will cause decrease of other pathologies related to HPV like genital warts and other cancer.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

Exploring patterns in European singles charts

European singles charts are important part of the music industry responsible for creating popularity of songs. After modeling and exploring dynamics of global album sales in previous papers, we investigate patterns of hit singles popularity according to all data (1966-2015) from weekly charts (polls) in 12 Western European countries. The dynamics of building popularity in various national charts is more than the economy because it depends on spread of information. In our research we have shown how countries may be affected by their neighbourhood and influenced by technological era. We have also computed correlations with geographical and cultural distances between countries in analog, digital and Internet era. We have shown that time delay between the single premiere and the peak of popularity has become shorter under the influence of technology and the popularity of songs depends on geographical distances in analog (1966-1987) and Internet (2004-2015) era. On the other hand, cultural distances between nations have influenced the peaks of popularity, but in the Compact Disc era only (1988-2003). We have also indicated the European countries in line with global trends e.g. The Netherlands, the United Kingdom and outsiders like Italy and Spain.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

How network temporal dynamics shape a mutualistic system with invasive species?

Ecological networks allow us to study the structure and function of ecosystems and gain insights on species resilience/stability. The study of this ecological networks is usually a snapshop focused in a limited specific range of space and time, prevent us to perceive the real dynamics of ecological processes. By definition, an alien species has some ecological strategies and traits that permit it to compete better than the native species (e.g. absence of predators, different bloom period, high grow rate, etc.). Plant-pollinator networks provide valuable services to whole ecosystems and the introduction of an alien species may have different effects on the native network (competitive facilitation, native species extinction, etc.). While scientists acknowledge the significance of network connectivity in driving ecosystem services, the inclusion of temporary networks in ecological models is still in its infancy. We propose to use existing data on seasonality to develop a simulation platform that show inference between temporality of networks and invasions traits. Our focus is only to pick up some simple model to show, that theoretically temporal aspect play a role (different extinction patterns) to encourage ecologist to get involved in temporal networks. Moreover, the derived simulations could be further extended and adjust to other ecological questions.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2014

Hierarchical representation of socio-economic complex systems according to minimal sapnning trees

We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference of the logarithm of daily stock price. The hierarchical tree provides information useful to investigate the number and nature of economic factors that have associated a meaningful economic taxonomy. We continue to use this method in social systems (sport, political parties and pharmacy) to investigate collective effects and detect how single element of the system influences on the other ones. The level of correlations and Minimum Spanning Trees in various complex systems is also discussed.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2013

Reading Stockholm Riots 2013 in social media by text-mining

The riots in Stockholm in May 2013 were an event that reverberated in the world media for its dimension of violence that had spread through the Swedish capital. In this study we have investigated the role of social media in creating media phenomena via text mining and natural language processing. We have focused on two channels of communication for our analysis: Twitter and Poloniainfo.se (Forum of Polish community in Sweden). Our preliminary results show some hot topics driving discussion related mostly to Swedish Police and Swedish Politics by counting word usage. Typical features for media intervention are presented. We have built networks of most popular phrases, clustered by categories (geography, media institution, etc.). Sentiment analysis shows negative connotation with Police. The aim of this preliminary exploratory quantitative study was to generate questions and hypotheses, which we could carefully follow by deeper more qualitative methods.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2013

Human-Human interaction: epidemiology

The aim of this work was to show few examples and few perspective of modeling in epidemiology. We began with differential equations which were a first tool to describe and predict that phenomena. Wroclaw as a cite was very important, because statistics from smallpox epidemic were used by Bernoulli to estimate parameters of first mathematical model of epidemic. Next step were SIR models and those also appeared first as differential equations. They were very popular in begin of XX century. When computer simulation changed the world of mathematical modeling agent-based models gave more possibilities in epidemiology. That models have a big privilege on differential equation, because of information of social network people habits and reaction on infections, which can me involved in agent-based models as well as governmental intervention. We showed in this work how that human relations are important in transmitting diseases and there is example, where it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance (vaccinating), such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Presented H1N1 model could be observed in real time (prediction was made in September 2009 for winter season 2009/2010) what make it more exiting and also practice.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2013

Viral spread with or without emotions in online community

Diffusion of information and viral content, social contagion and influence are still topics of broad evaluation. We have studied the information epidemic in a social networking platform in order compare different campaign setups. The goal of this work is to present the new knowledge obtained from studying two artificial (experimental) and one natural (where people act emotionally) viral spread that took place in a closed virtual world. We propose an approach to modeling the behavior of online community exposed on external impulses as an epidemic process. The presented results base on online multilayer system observation, and show characteristic difference between setups, moreover, some important aspects of branching processes are presented. We run experiments, where we introduced viral to system and agents were able to propagate it. There were two modes of experiment: with or without award. Dynamic of spreading both of virals were described by epidemiological model and diffusion. Results of experiments were compared with real propagation process - spontaneous organization against ACTA. During general-national protest against new antypiracy multinational agreement - ACTA, criticized for its adverse effect on e.g. freedom of expression and privacy of communication, members of chosen community could send a viral such as Stop-ACTA transparent. In this scenario, we are able to capture behavior of society, when real emotions play a role, and compare results with artificiality conditioned experiments. Moreover, we could measure effect of emotions in viral propagation. As theory explaining the role of emotions in spreading behaviour as an factor of message targeting and individuals spread emotional-oriented content in a more carefully and more influential way, the experiments show that probabilities of secondary infections are four times bigger if emotions play a role.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2012

Network structure of phonographic market with characteristic similarities between musicians

We investigate relations between best selling artists in last decade on phonographic market and from perspective of listeners by using the Social Network Analyzes. Starting network is obtained from the matrix of correlations between the world's best selling artists by considering the synchronous time evolution of weekly record sales. This method reveals the structure of phonographic market, but we claim that it has no impact on people who see relationship between artists and music genres. We compare 'sale' (based on correlation of record sales) or 'popularity' (based on data mining of the record charts) networks with 'similarity' (obtained mainly from survey within music experts opinion) and find no significant relations. We postulate that non-laminar phenomena on this specific market introduce turbulence to how people view relations of artists.

nlin.AO↗