arXiv subjects

Andrzej Udalski

Publications and source records attributed to Andrzej Udalski.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Non-evolutionary effects on period change in Magellanic Cepheids I. New binary systems revealed from Light Travel Time Effect

Period change studies give a window to probe into the evolution and dynamics of Cepheids. While evolutionary period changes have been well studied both observationally and theoretically, non-evolutionary period changes lack a systematic and quantitative description. The overall objective is to have a quantitative understanding of the full picture of non-evolutionary period changes in Cepheids, to develop a formalism to disentangle it from the secular evolutionary period change. In the first part of the series of works, we aim to conduct a systematic search for non-evolutionary period changes to search for Cepheids in likely binary configuration and quantify their incidence rates in the Magellanic Clouds. We collect more than decade-long time-series photometry from the publically available survey, Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE), with more than 7200 Cepheids collectively from the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). Our sample contains both fundamental-mode and first overtone-mode Cepheids. Then we calculate observed minus calculated ($O-C$) diagrams to reveal the light-travel time effect (LTTE). In our search, out of an overall sample of more than 7200 Cepheids, we found 52 candidate Cepheid binary systems in the LMC (30 fundamental and 22 first overtone-mode) and 145 in the SMC (85 fundamental and 60 first overtone-mode). The majority of the sample is characterized by orbital periods of 2000-4000\,d and eccentricities of 0.2-0.5. Moreover, we report two candidates in each galaxy with the Cepheid likely existing with a giant companion. The incidence rate ratio for SMC to LMC calculated from our sample is in agreement with binary Cepheid population synthesis predictions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Virial Black Hole Masses for AGNs behind the Magellanic Clouds

We use the spectroscopic data collected by the Magellanic Quasars Survey (MQS) as well as the photometric V- and I-band data from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) to measure the physical parameters for active galactic nuclei (AGNs) located behind the Magellanic Clouds. The flux-uncalibrated MQS spectra were obtained with the 4-m Anglo-Australian Telescope and the AAOmega spectroscope (R=1300) in a typical ~1.5-hour visit. They span a spectral range of 3700-8500 Angstroms and have S/N ratios in a range of 3-300. We report the discovery and observational properties of 161 AGNs in this footprint, which expands the total number of spectroscopically confirmed AGNs by MQS to 919. After converting the OGLE mean magnitudes to the monochromatic luminosities at 5100 Angstroms, 3000 Angstroms, and 1350 Angstroms, we reliably measured the black hole masses for 165 out of 919 AGNs. The remaining physical parameters we provide are the bolometric luminosities and the Eddington ratios. A fraction of these AGNs have been observed by the OGLE survey since 1997 (all of them since 2001), enabling studies of correlations between their variability and physical parameters.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Discovery of a Rare Eclipsing Be/X-ray Binary System, Swift J010902.6-723710 = SXP 182

We report on the discovery of Swift J010902.6-723710, a rare eclipsing Be/X-ray Binary system by the Swift SMC Survey (S-CUBED). Swift J010902.6-723710 was discovered via weekly S-CUBED monitoring observations when it was observed to enter a state of X-ray outburst on 10 October 2023. X-ray emission was found to be modulated by a 182s period. Optical spectroscopy is used to confirm the presence of a highly-inclined circumstellar disk surrounding a B0-0.5Ve optical companion. Historical UV and IR photometry are then used to identify strong eclipse-like features re-occurring in both light curves with a 60.623 day period, which is adopted as the orbital period of the system. Eclipsing behavior is found to be the result of a large accretion disk surrounding the neutron star. Eclipses are produced when the disk passes in front of the OBe companion, blocking light from both the stellar surface and circumstellar disk. This is only the third Be/X-ray Binary to have confirmed eclipses. We note that this rare behavior provides an important opportunity to constrain the physical parameters of a Be/X-ray Binary with greater accuracy than is possible in non-eclipsing systems.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

OGLE-2023-BLG-0836L: The sixth microlensing planet in a binary stellar system

Light curves of microlensing events occasionally deviate from the smooth and symmetric form of a single-lens single-source event. While most of these anomalous events can be accounted for by employing a binary-lens single-source (2L1S) or a single-lens binary-source (1L2S) framework, it is established that a small fraction of events remain unexplained by either of these interpretations. We carry out a project in which data collected by high-cadence microlensing surveys were reinvestigated with the aim of uncovering the nature of anomalous lensing events with no proposed 2L1S or 1L2S models. From the project, we find that the anomaly appearing in the lensing event OGLE-2023-BLG-0836 cannot be explained by the usual interpretations and conduct a comprehensive analysis of the event. From thorough modeling of the light curve under sophisticated lens-system configurations, we have arrived at the conclusion that a triple-mass lens system is imperative to account for the anomaly features observed in the lensing light curve. From the Bayesian analysis using the measured observables of the event time scale and angular Einstein radius, we determine that the least massive component of the lens has a planetary mass of $4.36^{+2.35}_{-2.18}~M_{\rm J}$. This planet orbits within a stellar binary system composed of two stars with masses $0.71^{+0.38}_{-0.36}~M_\odot$ and $0.56^{+0.30}_{-0.28}~M_\odot$. This lensing event signifies the sixth occurrence of a planetary microlensing system in which a planet belongs to a stellar binary system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

The 2022 super-Eddington outburst of the source SMC X-2

SMC X-2 exhibits X-ray outburst behaviour that makes it one of the most luminous X-ray sources in the Small Magellanic Cloud. In the last decade it has undergone two such massive outbursts - in 2015 and 2022. The first outburst is well reported in the literature, but the 2022 event has yet to be fully described and discussed. That is the goal of this paper. In particular, the post-peak characteristics of the two events are compared. This reveals clear similarities in decay profiles, believed to be related to different accretion mechanisms occurring at different times as the outbursts evolve. The Hα emission line indicates that the Be disc undergoes complex structural variability, with evidence of warping as a result of its interaction with the neutron star. The detailed observations reported here will be important for modelling such interactions in this kind of binary systems.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

KMT-2023-BLG-0416, KMT-2023-BLG-1454, KMT-2023-BLG-1642: Microlensing planets identified from partially covered signals

We investigate the 2023 season data from high-cadence microlensing surveys with the aim of detecting partially covered short-term signals and revealing their underlying astrophysical origins. Through this analysis, we ascertain that the signals observed in the lensing events KMT-2023-BLG-0416, KMT-2023-BLG-1454, and KMT-2023-BLG-1642 are of planetary origin. Considering the potential degeneracy caused by the partial coverage of signals, we thoroughly investigate the lensing-parameter plane. In the case of KMT-2023-BLG-0416, we have identified two solution sets, one with a planet-to-host mass ratio of $q\sim 10^{-2}$ and the other with $q\sim 6\times 10^{-5}$, within each of which there are two local solutions emerging due to the inner-outer degeneracy. For KMT-2023-BLG-1454, we discern four local solutions featuring mass ratios of $q\sim (1.7-4.3)\times 10^{-3}$. When it comes to KMT-2023-BLG-1642, we identified two locals with $q\sim (6-10)\times 10^{-3}$ resulting from the inner-outer degeneracy. We estimate the physical lens parameters by conducting Bayesian analyses based on the event time scale and Einstein radius. For KMT-2023-BLG-0416L, the host mass is $\sim 0.6~M_\odot$, and the planet mass is $\sim (6.1-6.7)~M_{\rm J}$ according to one set of solutions and $\sim 0.04~M_{\rm J}$ according to the other set of solutions. KMT-2023-BLG-1454Lb has a mass roughly half that of Jupiter, while KMT-2023-BLG-1646Lb has a mass in the range of between 1.1 to 1.3 times that of Jupiter, classifying them both as giant planets orbiting mid M-dwarf host stars with masses ranging from 0.13 to 0.17 solar masses.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. XI. Complete Sample of 2016 Sub-Prime Field Planets

Following Shin et al. (2023b), which is a part of the Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search series (i.e., a search for planets in the 2016 KMTNet prime fields), we conduct a systematic search of the 2016 KMTNet sub-prime fields using a semi-machine-based algorithm to identify hidden anomalous events missed by the conventional by-eye search. We find four new planets and seven planet candidates that were buried in the KMTNet archive. The new planets are OGLE-2016-BLG-1598Lb, OGLE-2016-BLG-1800Lb, MOA-2016-BLG-526Lb, and KMT-2016-BLG-2321Lb, which show typical properties of microlensing planets, i.e., giant planets orbit M dwarf host stars beyond their snow lines. For the planet candidates, we find planet/binary or 2L1S/1L2S degeneracies, which are an obstacle to firmly claiming planet detections. By combining the results of Shin et al. (2023b) and this work, we find a total of nine hidden planets, which is about half the number of planets discovered by eye in 2016. With this work, we have met the goal of the systematic search series for 2016, which is to build a complete microlensing planet sample. We also show that our systematic searches significantly contribute to completing the planet sample, especially for planet/host mass ratios smaller than $10^{-3}$, which were incomplete in previous by-eye searches of the KMTNet archive.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

OGLE-2017-BLG-0448Lb: A Low Mass-Ratio Wide-Orbit Microlensing Planet?

The gravitational microlensing technique is most sensitive to planets in a Jupiter-like orbit and has detected more than 200 planets. However, only a few wide-orbit ($s > 2$) microlensing planets have been discovered, where $s$ is the planet-to-host separation normalized to the angular Einstein ring radius, $θ_{\rm E}$. Here we present the discovery and analysis of a strong candidate wide-orbit microlensing planet in the event, OGLE-2017-BLG-0448. The whole light curve exhibits long-term residuals to the static binary-lens single-source model, so we investigate the residuals by adding the microlensing parallax, microlensing xallarap, an additional lens, or an additional source. For the first time, we observe a complex degeneracy between all four effects. The wide-orbit models with $s \sim 2.5$ and a planet-to-host mass-ratio of $q \sim 10^{-4}$ are significantly preferred, but we cannot rule out the close models with $s \sim 0.35$ and $q \sim 10^{-3}$. A Bayesian analysis based on a Galactic model indicates that, despite the complicated degeneracy, the surviving wide-orbit models all contain a super-Earth-mass to Neptune-mass planet at a projected planet-host separation of $\sim 6$ au and the surviving close-orbit models all consist of a Jovian-mass planet at $\sim 1$ au. The host star is probably an M or K dwarf. We discuss the implications of this dimension-degeneracy disaster on microlensing light-curve analysis and its potential impact on statistical studies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

OGLE-2019-BLG-1180Lb: Discovery of a Wide-orbit Jupiter-mass Planet around a Late-type Star

We report on the discovery and analysis of the planetary microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-1180 with a planet-to-star mass ratio $q \sim 0.003$. The event OGLE-2019-BLG-1180 has unambiguous cusp-passing and caustic-crossing anomalies, which were caused by a wide planetary caustic with $s \simeq 2$, where $s$ is the star-planet separation in units of the angular Einstein radius $θ_{E}$. Thanks to well-covered anomalies by the Korea Micorolensing Telescope Network (KMTNet), we measure both the angular Einstein radius and the microlens parallax in spite of a relatively short event timescale of $t_{E} = 28$ days. However, because of a weak constraint on the parallax, we conduct a Bayesian analysis to estimate the physical lens parameters. We find that the lens system is a super-Jupiter-mass planet of $M_{p} = 1.75^{+0.54}_{-0.51} M_{J}$ orbiting a late-type star of $M_{h}=0.55^{+0.27}_{-0.26} M_\odot$ at a distance of $D_{L} = 6.1^{+0.9}_{-1.3}$ kpc. The projected star-planet separation is $a_{\perp} = 5.19^{+0.90}_{-1.23}$ au, which means that the planet orbits at about four times the snow line of the host star. Considering the relative lens-source proper motion of $μ_{rel} = 6$ mas/yr, the lens will be separated from the source by 60 mas in 2029. At that time one can measure the lens flux from adaptive optics imaging of Kec or a next-generation 30 m class telescope. OGLE-2019-BLG-1180Lb represents a growing population of wide-orbit planets detected by KMTNet, so we also present a general investigation into prospects for further expanding the sample of such planets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

KMT-2023-BLG-1431Lb: A New $q < 10^{-4}$ Microlensing Planet from a Subtle Signature

The current studies of microlensing planets are limited by small number statistics. Follow-up observations of high-magnification microlensing events can efficiently form a statistical planetary sample. Since 2020, the Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) and the Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) global network have been conducting a follow-up program for high-magnification KMTNet events. Here, we report the detection and analysis of a microlensing planetary event, KMT-2023-BLG-1431, for which the subtle (0.05 magnitude) and short-lived (5 hours) planetary signature was characterized by the follow-up from KMTNet and LCO. A binary-lens single-source (2L1S) analysis reveals a planet/host mass ratio of $q = (0.72 \pm 0.07) \times 10^{-4}$, and the single-lens binary-source (1L2S) model is excluded by $Δχ^2 = 80$. A Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model yields estimates of the host star mass of $M_{\rm host} = 0.57^{+0.33}_{-0.29}~M_\odot$, the planetary mass of $M_{\rm planet} = 13.5_{-6.8}^{+8.1}~M_{\oplus}$, and the lens distance of $D_{\rm L} = 6.9_{-1.7}^{+0.8}$ kpc. The projected planet-host separation of $a_\perp = 2.3_{-0.5}^{+0.5}$ au or $a_\perp = 3.2_{-0.8}^{+0.7}$, subject to the close/wide degeneracy. We also find that without the follow-up data, the survey-only data cannot break the degeneracy of central/resonant caustics and the degeneracy of 2L1S/1L2S models, showing the importance of follow-up observations for current microlensing surveys.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

OGLE-2014-BLG-0221Lb: A Jupiter Mass Ratio Companion Orbiting either a Late-Type Star or a Stellar Remnant

We present the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2014-BLG-0221, a planetary candidate event discovered in 2014. The photometric light curve is best described by a binary-lens single-source model. Our light curve modeling finds two degenerate models, with event timescales of $t_\mathrm{E}\sim70$ days and $\sim110$ days. These timescales are relatively long, indicating that the discovered system would possess a substantial mass. The two models are similar in their planetary parameters with a Jupiter mass ratio of $q \sim 10^{-3}$ and a separation of $s \sim 1.1$. While the shorter timescale model shows marginal detection of a microlensing parallax signal, the longer timescale model requires a higher order effect of microlensing parallax, lens orbital motion or xallarap to explain the deviation in the light curve. However, the modeling shows significant correlation between the higher order effects and suffers the ecliptic degeneracy that results in a failure to determine the parallax parameters. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the physical parameters of the lens, revealing the lens to be either a late-type star supported by the shorter timescale model or a stellar remnant supported by the longer timescale model. If the lens is a remnant, this would be the second planet found by microlensing around a stellar remnant. Since the models predict different values for relative proper motion and source flux, future high angular resolution follow-up observations (e.g. Keck adaptive optics) are required to rule out either of the models.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. X. Complete Sample of 2017 Prime-Field Planets

We complete the analysis of planetary candidates found by the KMT AnomalyFinder for the 2017 prime fields that cover $\sim 13\,{\rm deg}^2$. We report 3 unambiguous planets: OGLE-2017-BLG-0640, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275, and OGLE-2017-BLG-1237. The first two of these were not previously identified, while the last was not previously published due to technical complications induced by a nearby variable. We further report that a fourth anomalous event, the previously recognized OGLE-2017-BLG-1777, is very likely to be planetary, although its light curve requires unusually complex modeling because the lens and source both have orbiting companions. One of the 3 unambiguous planets, OGLE-2017-BLG-1275 is the first AnomalyFinder discovery that has a {\it Spitzer} microlens parallax measurement, $π_E \sim 0.045\pm0.015$, implying that this planetary system almost certainly lies in the Galactic bulge. In the order listed, the four planetary events have planet-host mass ratios $q$, and normalized projected separations $s$, of $(\log q,s)$ = $(-2.31,0.61)$, $(-2.06,0.63/1.09)$, $(-2.10,1.04)$, and $(-2.86,0.72)$. Combined with previously published events, the 2017 AnomalyFinder prime fields contain 11 unambiguous planets with well-measured $q$ and one very likely candidate, of which 3 are AnomalyFinder discoveries. In addition to these 12, there are three other unambiguous planets with large uncertainties in $q$.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

OGLE-2019-BLG-0825: Constraints on the Source System and Effect on Binary-lens Parameters arising from a Five Day Xallarap Effect in a Candidate Planetary Microlensing Event

We present an analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-0825. This event was identified as a planetary candidate by preliminary modeling. We find that significant residuals from the best-fit static binary-lens model exist and a xallarap effect can fit the residuals very well and significantly improves $χ^2$ values. On the other hand, by including the xallarap effect in our models, we find that binary-lens parameters like mass-ratio, $q$, and separation, $s$, cannot be constrained well. However, we also find that the parameters for the source system like the orbital period and semi major axis are consistent between all the models we analyzed. We therefore constrain the properties of the source system better than the properties of the lens system. The source system comprises a G-type main-sequence star orbited by a brown dwarf with a period of $P\sim5$ days. This analysis is the first to demonstrate that the xallarap effect does affect binary-lens parameters in planetary events. It would not be common for the presence or absence of the xallarap effect to affect lens parameters in events with long orbital periods of the source system or events with transits to caustics, but in other cases, such as this event, the xallarap effect can affect binary-lens parameters.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Gaia21bty: An EXor lightcurve exhibiting an FUor spectrum

Gaia21bty, a pre-main sequence star that previously had shown aperiodic dips in its light curve, underwent a considerable $ΔG\approx2.9$ mag brightening that occurred over a few months between 2020 October - 2021 February. The Gaia lightcurve shows that the star remained near maximum brightness for about $4-6$ months, and then started slowly fading over the next 2 years, with at least three superimposed $\sim$1 mag sudden rebrightening events. Whereas the amplitude and duration of the maximum is typical for EXors, optical and near-infrared spectra obtained at the maximum are dominated by features which are typical for FUors. Modelling of the accretion disc at the maximum indicates that the disc bolometric luminosity is 43 L$_{\odot}$ and the mass accretion rate is $2.5\times10^{-5}$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$, which are typical values for FUors even considering the large uncertainty in the distance ($1.7_{-0.4}^{+0.8}$ kpc). Further monitoring is necessary to understand the cause of the quick brightness decline, the rebrightening, and the other post-outburst light changes, as our multi-colour photometric data suggest that they could be caused by a long and discontinuous obscuration event. We speculate that the outburst might have induced large-scale inhomogeneous dust condensations in the line of sight leading to such phenomena, whilst the FUor outburst continues behind the opaque screen.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Terrestrial and Neptune mass free-floating planet candidates from the MOA-II 9-year Galactic Bulge survey

We report the discoveries of low-mass free-floating planet (FFP) candidates from the analysis of 2006-2014 MOA-II Galactic bulge survey data. In this dataset, we found 6,111 microlensing candidates and identified a statistical sample consisting of 3,535 high quality single lens events with Einstein radius crossing times in the range $0.057 < t_{\rm E}/{\rm days} < 757$, including 13 events that show clear finite source effects with angular Einstein radii of $0.90<θ_{\rm E}/{\rm μas} <332.54$. Two of the 12 events with $t_{\rm E} < 1$ day have significant finite source effects, and one event, MOA-9y-5919, with $t_{\rm E}=0.057\pm 0.016$ days and $θ_{\rm E}= 0.90 \pm 0.14$ $μ$as, is the second terrestrial mass FFP candidate to date. A Bayesian analysis indicates a lens mass of $0.75^{+1.23}_{-0.46}$ $M_\oplus$ for this event. The low detection efficiency for short duration events implies a large population of low-mass FFPs. The microlensing detection efficiency for low-mass planet events depends on both the Einstein radius crossing times and the angular Einstein radii, so we have used image-level simulations to determine the detection efficiency dependence on both $t_{\rm E}$ and $θ_{\rm E}$. This allows us to use a Galactic model to simulate the $t_{\rm E}$ and $θ_{\rm E}$ distribution of events produced by the known stellar populations and models of the FFP distribution that are fit to the data. Methods like this will be needed for the more precise FFP demographics determinations from Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope data.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. IX. Complete Sample of 2016 Prime-Field Planets

As a part of the ``Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search" series, we report five new planets (namely, OGLE-2016-BLG-1635Lb, MOA-2016-BLG-532Lb, KMT-2016-BLG-0625Lb, OGLE-2016-BLG-1850Lb, and KMT-2016-BLG-1751Lb) and one planet candidate (KMT-2016-BLG-1855), which were found by searching $2016$ KMTNet prime fields. These $buried$ planets show a wide range of masses from Earth--class to Super--Jupiter--class, and are located in both the disk and the bulge. The ultimate goal of this series is to build a complete planet sample. Because our work provides a complementary sample to other planet detection methods, which have different detection sensitivities, our complete sample will help us to obtain a better understanding of planet demographics in our Galaxy.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Systematic KMTNet Planetary Anomaly Search. VIII. Complete Sample of 2019 Subprime Field Planets

We complete the publication of all microlensing planets (and ``possible planets'') identified by the uniform approach of the KMT AnomalyFinder system in the 21 KMT subprime fields during the 2019 observing season, namely KMT-2019-BLG-0298, KMT-2019-BLG-1216, KMT-2019-BLG-2783, OGLE-2019-BLG-0249, and OGLE-2019-BLG-0679 (planets), as well as OGLE-2019-BLG-0344, and KMT-2019-BLG-0304 (possible planets). The five planets have mean log mass-ratio measurements of $(-2.6,-3.6,-2.5,-2.2,-2.3)$, median mass estimates of $(1.81,0.094,1.16,7.12,3.34)\, M_{\rm Jup}$, and median distance estimates of $(6.7,2.7,5.9,6.4,5.6)\, {\rm kpc}$, respectively. The main scientific interest of these planets is that they complete the AnomalyFinder sample for 2019, which has a total of 25 planets that are likely to enter the statistical sample. We find statistical consistency with the previously published 33 planets from the 2018 AnomalyFinder analysis according to an ensemble of five tests. Of the 58 planets from 2018-2019, 23 were newly discovered by AnomalyFinder. Within statistical precision, half of all the planets have caustic crossings while half do not (as predicted by Zhu et al. 2014), an equal number of detected planets result from major-image and minor-image light-curve perturbations, and an equal number come from KMT prime fields versus subprime fields.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

OGLE-2017-BLG-1038: A Possible Brown-dwarf Binary Revealed by Spitzer Microlensing Parallax

We report the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2017-BLG-1038, observed by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, Korean Microlensing Telescope Network, and Spitzer telescopes. The event is caused by a giant source star in the Galactic Bulge passing over a large resonant binary lens caustic. The availability of space-based data allows the full set of physical parameters to be calculated. However, there exists an eightfold degeneracy in the parallax measurement. The four best solutions correspond to very-low-mass binaries near ($M_1 = 170^{+40}_{-50} M_J$ and $M_2 = 110^{+20}_{-30} M_J$), or well below ($M_1 = 22.5^{+0.7}_{-0.4} M_J$ and $M_2 = 13.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3} M_J$) the boundary between stars and brown dwarfs. A conventional analysis, with scaled uncertainties for Spitzer data, implies a very-low-mass brown dwarf binary lens at a distance of 2 kpc. Compensating for systematic Spitzer errors using a Gaussian process model suggests that a higher mass M-dwarf binary at 6 kpc is equally likely. A Bayesian comparison based on a galactic model favors the larger-mass solutions. We demonstrate how this degeneracy can be resolved within the next ten years through infrared adaptive-optics imaging with a 40 m class telescope.

astro-ph.SR↗