arXiv subjects

Andrzej Udalski

Publications and source records attributed to Andrzej Udalski.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

OGLE-2013-BLG-0911Lb: A Secondary on the Brown-Dwarf Planet Boundary around an M-dwarf

We present the analysis of the binary-lens microlensing event OGLE-2013-BLG-0911. The best-fit solutions indicate the binary mass ratio of q~0.03 which differs from that reported in Shvartzvald+2016. The event suffers from the well-known close/wide degeneracy, resulting in two groups of solutions for the projected separation normalized by the Einstein radius of s~0.15 or s~7. The finite source and the parallax observations allow us to measure the lens physical parameters. The lens system is an M-dwarf orbited by a massive Jupiter companion at very close (M_{host}=0.30^{+0.08}_{-0.06} M_{Sun}, M_{comp}=10.1^{+2.9}_{-2.2} M_{Jup}, a_{exp}=0.40^{+0.05}_{-0.04} au) or wide (M_{host}=0.28^{+0.10}_{-0.08} M_{Sun}, M_{comp}=9.9^{+3.8}_{-3.5}M_{Jup}, a_{exp}=18.0^{+3.2}_{-3.2} au) separation. Although the mass ratio is slightly above the planet-brown dwarf (BD) mass-ratio boundary of q=0.03 which is generally used, the median physical mass of the companion is slightly below the planet-BD mass boundary of 13M_{Jup}. It is likely that the formation mechanisms for BDs and planets are different and the objects near the boundaries could have been formed by either mechanism. It is important to probe the distribution of such companions with masses of ~13M_{Jup} in order to statistically constrain the formation theories for both BDs and massive planets. In particular, the microlensing method is able to probe the distribution around low-mass M-dwarfs and even BDs which is challenging for other exoplanet detection methods.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2016-BLG-1227L: A Wide-separation Planet from a Very Short-timescale Microlensing Event

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-1227. The light curve of this short-duration event appears to be a single-lens event affected by severe finite-source effects. Analysis of the light curve based on single-lens single-source (1L1S) modeling yields very small values of the event timescale, $t_{\rm E}\sim 3.5$ days, and the angular Einstein radius, $θ_{\rm E}\sim 0.009$ mas, making the lens a candidate of a free-floating planet. Close inspection reveals that the 1L1S solution leaves small residuals with amplitude $ΔI\lesssim 0.03$ mag. We find that the residuals are explained by the existence of an additional widely-separated heavier lens component, indicating that the lens is a wide-separation planetary system rather than a free-floating planet. From Bayesian analysis, it is estimated that the planet has a mass of $M_{\rm p} = 0.79^{+1.30}_{-0.39} M_{\rm J}$ and it is orbiting a low-mass host star with a mass of $M_{\rm host}=0.10^{+0.17}_{-0.05} M_\odot$ located with a projected separation of $a_\perp=3.4^{+2.1}_{-1.0}$ au. The planetary system is located in the Galactic bulge with a line-of-sight separation from the source star of $D_{\rm LS}=1.21^{+0.96}_{-0.63}$ kpc. The event shows that there are a range of deviations in the signatures of host stars for apparently isolated planetary lensing events and that it is possible to identify a host even when a deviation is subtle.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2015-BLG-1771Lb: A Microlens Planet Orbiting an Ultracool Dwarf?

We report the discovery and the analysis of the short (tE < 5 days) planetary microlensing event, OGLE-2015-BLG-1771. The event was discovered by the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE), and the planetary anomaly (at I ~ 19) was captured by The Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet). The event has three surviving planetary models that explain the observed light curves, with planet-host mass ratio q \~ 5.4 * 10^{-3}, 4.5 * 10^{-3} and 4.5 * 10^{-2}, respectively. The first model is the best-fit model, while the second model is disfavored by Δχ^2 ~ 3. The last model is strongly disfavored by Δχ^2 ~ 15 but not ruled out. A Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model indicates that the first two models are probably composed of a Saturn-mass planet orbiting a late M dwarf, while the third one could consist of a super-Jovian planet and a mid-mass brown dwarf. The source-lens relative proper motion is mu_rel ~ 9 mas/yr, so the source and lens could be resolved by current adaptive-optics (AO) instruments in 2021 if the lens is luminous.

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arXiv2019

MOA-bin-29b : A Microlensing Gas Giant Planet Orbiting a Low-mass Host Star

We report the discovery of a gas giant planet orbiting a low-mass host star in the microlensing event MOA-bin-29 that occurred in 2006. We find five degenerate solutions with the planet/host-star mass ratio of $q \sim 10^{-2}$. The Einstein radius crossing time of all models are relatively short ($\sim 4-7$ days), which indicates that the mass of host star is likely low. The measured lens-source proper motion is $5-9$ ${\rm mas}\ {\rm yr}^{-1}$ depending on the models. Since only finite source effects are detected, we conduct a Bayesian analysis in order to obtain the posterior probability distribution of the lens physical properties. As a result, we find the lens system is likely to be a gas giant orbiting a brown dwarf or a very late M-dwarf in the Galactic bulge. The probability distributions of the physical parameters for the five degenerate models are consistent within the range of error. By combining these probability distributions, we conclude that the lens system is a gas giant with a mass of $M_{\rm p} = 0.63^{+1.13}_{-0.39}\ M_{\rm Jup}$ orbiting a brown dwarf with a mass of $M_{\rm h} = 0.06^{+0.11}_{-0.04}\ M_\odot$ at a projected star-planet separation of $r_\perp = 0.53^{+0.89}_{-0.18}\ {\rm au}$. The lens distance is $D_{\rm L} = 6.89^{+1.19}_{-1.19}\ {\rm kpc}$, i.e., likely within the Galactic bulge.

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arXiv2019

Spitzer Microlensing Program as a Probe for Globular Cluster Planets. Analysis of OGLE-2015-BLG-0448

The microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-0448 was observed by Spitzer and lay within the tidal radius of the globular cluster NGC 6558. The event had moderate magnification and was intensively observed, hence it had the potential to probe the distribution of planets in globular clusters. We measure the proper motion of NGC 6558 ($μ_{\rm cl}$(N,E) = (+0.36+-0.10, +1.42+-0.10) mas/yr) as well as the source and show that the lens is not a cluster member. Even though this particular event does not probe the distribution of planets in globular clusters, other potential cluster lens events can be verified using our methodology. Additionally, we find that microlens parallax measured using OGLE photometry is consistent with the value found based on the light curve displacement between Earth and Spitzer.

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arXiv2019

Candidate Brown-dwarf Microlensing Events with Very Short Timescales and Small Angular Einstein Radii

Short-timescale microlensing events are likely to be produced by substellar brown dwarfs (BDs), but it is difficult to securely identify BD lenses based on only event timescales $t_{\rm E}$ because short-timescale events can also be produced by stellar lenses with high relative lens-source proper motions. In this paper, we report three strong candidate BD-lens events found from the search for lensing events not only with short timescales ($t_{\rm E} \lesssim 6~{\rm days}$) but also with very small angular Einstein radii ($θ_{\rm E}\lesssim 0.05~{\rm mas}$) among the events that have been found in the 2016--2019 observing seasons. These events include MOA-2017-BLG-147, MOA-2017-BLG-241, and MOA-2019-BLG-256, in which the first two events are produced by single lenses and the last event is produced by a binary lens. From the Bayesian analysis conducted with the combined $t_{\rm E}$ and $θ_{\rm E}$ constraint, it is estimated that the lens masses of the individual events are $0.051^{+0.100}_{-0.027}~M_\odot$, $0.044^{+0.090}_{-0.023}~M_\odot$, and $0.046^{+0.067}_{-0.023}~M_\odot/0.038^{+0.056}_{-0.019}~M_\odot$ and the probability of the lens mass smaller than the lower limit of stars is $\sim 80\%$ for all events. We point out that routine lens mass measurements of short time-scale lensing events require survey-mode space-based observations.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2015-BLG-1649Lb: A gas giant planet around a low-mass dwarf

We report the discovery of an exoplanet in microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1649. The planet/host-star mass ratio is $q =7.2 \times 10^{-3}$ and the projected separation normalized by the Einstein radius is $s = 0.9$. The upper limit of the lens flux is obtained from adaptive optics observations by IRCS/Subaru, which excludes the probability of a G-dwarf or more massive host star and helps to put a tighter constraint on the lens mass as well as commenting on the formation scenarios of giant planets orbiting low-mass stars. We conduct a Bayesian analysis including constraints on the lens flux to derive the probability distribution of the physical parameters of the lens system. We thereby find that the masses of the host star and planet are $M_{L} = 0.34 \pm 0.19 M_{\odot}$ and $M_{p} = 2.5^{+1.5}_{-1.4} M_{Jup}$, respectively. The distance to the system is $D_{L} = 4.23^{+1.51}_{-1.64}$kpc. The projected star-planet separation is $a_{\perp} = 2.07^{+0.65}_{-0.77}$AU. The lens-source relative proper motion of the event is quite high, at $\sim 7.1 \, {\rm mas/yr}$. Therefore, we may be able to determine the lens physical parameters uniquely or place much stronger constraints on them by measuring the color-dependent centroid shift and/or the image elongation with additional high resolution imaging already a few years from now.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2018-BLG-1700L: Microlensing Planet in Binary Stellar System

We report the discovery of a planet in a binary that was discovered from the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1700. We identify the triple nature of the lens from the fact that the complex anomaly pattern can be decomposed into two parts produced by two binary-lens events, in which one binary pair has a very low mass ratio of $\sim 0.01$ between the lens components and the other pair has a mass ratio of $\sim 0.3$. We find two sets of degenerate solutions, in which one solution has a projected separation between the primary and its stellar companion less than the angular Einstein radius $\thetae$ (close solution), while the other solution has a separation greater than $\thetae$ (wide solution). From the Bayesian analysis with the constraints of the event time scale and angular Einstein radius together with the location of the source lying in the far disk behind the bulge, we find that the planet is a super-Jupiter with a mass of $4.4^{+3.0}_{-2.0}~M_{\rm J}$ and the stellar binary components are early and late M-type dwarfs with masses $0.42^{+0.29}_{-0.19}~M_\odot$ and $0.12^{+0.08}_{-0.05}~M_\odot$, respectively, and the planetary system is located at a distance of $D_{\rm L}=7.6^{+1.2}_{-0.9}~{\rm kpc}$. The planet is a circumstellar planet according to the wide solution, while it is a circumbinary planet according to the close solution. The projected primary-planet separation is $2.8^{+3.2}_{-2.5}~{\rm au}$ commonly for the close and wide solutions, but the primary-secondary binary separation of the close solution, $0.75^{+0.87}_{-0.66}~{\rm au}$, is widely different from the separation, $10.5^{+12.1}_{-9.2}~{\rm au}$, of the wide solution.

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arXiv2019

An X-ray and optical study of the outbursting behaviour of the SMC Be X-ray binary SXP 91.1

In this paper we report on the optical and X-ray behaviour of the Be X-ray binary, SXP 91.1, during a recent type I outburst. We monitored the outburst using the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. These data were supported by optical data from the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) and the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) to show the circumstellar disc activity. Matter from this disc accretes onto the neutron star, giving rise to the X-ray outburst as seen in the synchronous evolution of the optical and X-ray lightcurves. Using data taken with OGLE we show that the circumstellar disc has exhibited stable behaviour over two decades. A positive correlation is seen between the colour and magnitude from the OGLE and MACHO observations, which indicates that the disc is orientated at relatively low inclination angles. From the OGLE and Swift data, we demonstrate that the system has shown relative phase offsets that have persisted for many years. The spin period derivative is seen to be at maximum spin-up at phases when the mass accretion rate is at maximum. We show that the neutron star in SXP 91.1 is an unusual member of its class in that it has had a consistent spin period derivative over many years, with the average spin-up rate being one of the highest for known SMC pulsars. The most recent measurements of the spin-up rate reveal higher values than the global trend, which is attributed to the recent mass accretion event leading to the current outburst.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2017-BLG-1186: first application of asteroseismology and Gaussian processes to microlensing

We present the analysis of the event OGLE-2017-BLG-1186 from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. This is a remarkable microlensing event because its source is photometrically bright and variable, which makes it possible to perform an asteroseismic analysis using ground-based data. We find that the source star is an oscillating red giant with average timescale of $\sim 9$ d. The asteroseismic analysis also provides us source properties including the source angular size ($\sim 27~μ{\rm as}$) and distance ($\sim 11.5$ kpc), which are essential for inferring the properties of the lens. When fitting the light curve, we test the feasibility of Gaussian Processes (GPs) in handling the correlated noise caused by the variable source. We find that the parameters from the GP model are generally more loosely constrained than those from the traditional $χ^2$ minimization method. We note that this event is the first microlensing system for which asteroseismology and GPs have been used to account for the variable source. With both finite-source effect and microlens parallax measured, we find that the lens is likely a $\sim 0.045~M_{\odot}$ brown dwarf at distance $\sim 9.0$ kpc, or a $\sim 0.073~M_{\odot}$ ultracool dwarf at distance $\sim 9.8$ kpc. Combining the estimated lens properties with a Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model, we find a $\sim 35$ per cent probability for the lens to be a bulge object and $\sim 65$ per cent to be a background disc object.

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arXiv2019

Supersoft X-ray emission from a white dwarf binary not powered by nuclear fusion

Supersoft X-ray sources are stellar objects which emit X-rays with temperatures of about 1 million Kelvin and luminosities well in excess of what can be produced by stellar coronae. It has generally been presumed that the objects in this class are binary star systems in which mass transfer leads to nuclear fusion on the surface of a white dwarf. Classical novae, the runaway fusion events on the surfaces of white dwarfs, generally have supersoft phases, and it is often stated that the bright steady supersoft X-ray sources seen from white dwarfs accreting mass at a high rate are undergoing steady nuclear fusion. In this letter, we report the discovery of a transient supersoft source in the Small Magellanic Cloud without any signature of nuclear fusion having taken place. This discovery indicates that the X-ray emission probably comes from a "spreading layer" - a belt on the surface of the white dwarf near the inner edge of the accretion disk in which a large fraction of the total accretion energy is emitted - and (albeit more tentatively) that the accreting white dwarf is relatively massive. We thus establish that the presence of a supersoft source cannot always be used as a tracer of nuclear fusion, in contradiction with decades-old consensus about the nature of supersoft emission.

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arXiv2019

Spectroscopic Mass and Host-star Metallicity Measurements for Newly Discovered Microlensing Planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0740Lb

We report the discovery of the microlensing planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0740Lb. The planet is detected with a very strong signal of $Δχ^2\sim 4630$, but the interpretation of the signal suffers from two types of degeneracies. One type is caused by the previously known close/wide degeneracy, and the other is caused by an ambiguity between two solutions, in which one solution requires to incorporate finite-source effects, while the other solution is consistent with a point-source interpretation. Although difficult to be firmly resolved based on only the photometric data, the degeneracy is resolved in strong favor of the point-source solution with the additional external information obtained from astrometric and spectroscopic observations. The small astrometric offset between the source and baseline object supports that the blend is the lens and this interpretation is further secured by the consistency of the spectroscopic distance estimate of the blend with the lensing parameters of the point-source solution. The estimated mass of the host is $1.0\pm 0.1~M_\odot$ and the mass of the planet is $4.5\pm 0.6~M_{\rm J}$ (close solution) or $4.8\pm 0.6~M_{\rm J}$ (wide solution) and the lens is located at a distance of $3.2\pm 0.5$~kpc. The bright nature of the lens, with $I\sim 17.1$ ($V\sim 18.2$), combined with its dominance of the observed flux suggest that radial-velocity (RV) follow-up observations of the lens can be done using high-resolution spectrometers mounted on large telescopes, e.g., VLT/ESPRESSO, and this can potentially not only measure the period and eccentricity of the planet but also probe for close-in planets. We estimate that the expected RV amplitude would be $\sim 60\sin i ~{\rm m~s}^{-1}$.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2018-BLG-1011L\lowercase{b,c}: Microlensing Planetary System with Two Giant Planets Orbiting a Low-mass Star

We report a multiplanetary system found from the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1011, for which the light curve exhibits a double-bump anomaly around the peak. We find that the anomaly cannot be fully explained by the binary-lens or binary-source interpretations and its description requires the introduction of an additional lens component. The 3L1S (3 lens components and a single source) modeling yields three sets of solutions, in which one set of solutions indicates that the lens is a planetary system in a binary, while the other two sets imply that the lens is a multiplanetary system. By investigating the fits of the individual models to the detailed light curve structure, we find that the multiple-planet solution with planet-to-host mass ratios $\sim 9.5\times 10^{-3}$ and $\sim 15\times 10^{-3}$ are favored over the other solutions. From the Bayesian analysis, we find that the lens is composed of two planets with masses $1.8^{+3..4}_{-1.1}~M_{\rm J}$ and $2.8^{+5.1}_{-1.7}~M_{\rm J}$ around a host with a mass $0.18^{+0.33}_{-0.10}~M_\odot$ and located at a distance $7.1^{+1.1}_{-1.5}~{\rm kpc}$. The estimated distance indicates that the lens is the farthest system among the known multiplanetary systems. The projected planet-host separations are $a_{\perp,2}=1.8^{+2.1}_{-1.5}~{\rm au}$ ($0.8^{+0.9}_{-0.6}~{\rm au}$) and $a_{\perp,3}=0.8^{+0.9}_{-0.6}~{\rm au}$, where the values of $a_{\perp,2}$ in and out the parenthesis are the separations corresponding to the two degenerate solutions, indicating that both planets are located beyond the snow line of the host, as with the other four multiplanetary systems previously found by microlensing.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2015-BLG-1670Lb: A Cold Neptune beyond the Snow Line in the Provisional WFIRST Microlensing Survey Field

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1670, detected in a high-extinction field, very close to the Galactic plane. Due to the dust extinction along the line of sight, this event was too faint to be detected before it reached the peak of magnification. The microlensing light-curve models indicate a high-magnification event with a maximum of $A_\mathrm{max}\gtrsim200$, very sensitive to planetary deviations. An anomaly in the light curve has been densely observed by the microlensing surveys MOA, KMTNet, and OGLE. From the light-curve modeling, we find a planetary anomaly characterized by a planet-to-host mass ratio, $q=\left(1.00^{+0.18}_{-0.16}\right)\times 10^{-4}$, at the peak recently identified in the mass-ratio function of microlensing planets. Thus, this event is interesting to include in future statistical studies about planet demography. We have explored the possible degeneracies and find two competing planetary models resulting from the $s\leftrightarrow1/s$ degeneracy. However, because the projected separation is very close to $s=1$, the physical implications for the planet for the two solutions are quite similar, except for the value of $s$. By combining the light-curve parameters with a Galactic model, we have estimated the planet mass $M_2=17.9^{+9.6}_{-8.8}\,\mathrm{M}_\oplus$ and the lens distance $D_\mathrm{L}=6.7^{+1.0}_{-1.3}\,\mathrm{kpc}$, corresponding to a Neptune-mass planet close to the Galactic bulge. Such events with a low absolute latitude ($|b|\approx 1.1\,\mathrm{deg}$) are subject to both high extinction and more uncertain source distances, two factors that may affect the mass measurements in the provisional Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope fields. More events are needed to investigate the potential trade-off between the higher lensing rate and the difficulty in measuring masses in these low-latitude fields.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb: Cold Neptune With Possible Jovian Sibling

We report the discovery of the planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0532Lb, with very obvious signatures in the light curve that lead to an estimate of the planet-host mass ratio $q=M_{\rm planet}/M_{\rm host}\simeq 1\times10^{-4}$. Although there are no obvious systematic residuals to this double-lens/single-source (2L1S) fit, we find that $χ^2$ can be significantly improved by adding either a third lens (3L1S, $Δχ^2=81$) or second source (2L2S, $Δχ^2=65$) to the lens-source geometry. After thorough investigation, we conclude that we cannot decisively distinguish between these two scenarios and therefore focus on the robustly-detected planet. However, given the possible presence of a second planet, we investigate to what degree and with what probability such additional planets may affect seemingly single-planet light curves. Our best estimates for the properties of the lens star and the secure planet are: a host mass $M\sim 0.25\,M_\odot$, system distance $D_L\sim 1\,$kpc and planet mass $m_{p,1}= 8\,M_\oplus$ with projected separation $a_{1,\perp}=1.4\,$au. However, there is a relatively bright $I=18.6$ (and also relatively blue) star projected within $<50\,$mas of the lens, and if future high-resolution images show that this is coincident with the lens, then it is possible that it is the lens, in which case, the lens would be both more massive and more distant than the best-estimated values above.

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arXiv2019

$Spitzer$ Parallax of OGLE-2018-BLG-0596: A Low-mass-ratio Planet around an M-dwarf

We report the discovery of a $Spitzer$ microlensing planet OGLE-2018-BLG-0596Lb, with preferred planet-host mass ratio $q \sim 2\times10^{-4}$. The planetary signal, which is characterized by a short $(\sim 1~{\rm day})$ "bump" on the rising side of the lensing light curve, was densely covered by ground-based surveys. We find that the signal can be explained by a bright source that fully envelops the planetary caustic, i.e., a "Hollywood" geometry. Combined with the source proper motion measured from $Gaia$, the $Spitzer$ satellite parallax measurement makes it possible to precisely constrain the lens physical parameters. The preferred solution, in which the planet perturbs the minor image due to lensing by the host, yields a Uranus-mass planet with a mass of $M_{\rm p} = 13.9\pm1.6~M_{\oplus}$ orbiting a mid M-dwarf with a mass of $M_{\rm h} = 0.23\pm0.03~M_{\odot}$. There is also a second possible solution that is substantially disfavored but cannot be ruled out, for which the planet perturbs the major image. The latter solution yields $M_{\rm p} = 1.2\pm0.2~M_{\oplus}$ and $M_{\rm h} = 0.15\pm0.02~M_{\odot}$. By combining the microlensing and $Gaia$ data together with a Galactic model, we find in either case that the lens lies on the near side of the Galactic bulge at a distance $D_{\rm L} \sim 6\pm1~{\rm kpc}$. Future adaptive optics observations may decisively resolve the major image/minor image degeneracy.

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arXiv2019

Spitzer Microlensing parallax reveals two isolated stars in the Galactic bulge

We report the mass and distance measurements of two single-lens events from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. The ground-based observations yield the detection of finite-source effects, and the microlens parallaxes are derived from the joint analysis of ground-based observations and Spitzer observations. We find that the lens of OGLE-2017-BLG-1254 is a $0.60 \pm 0.03 M_{\odot}$ star with $D_{\rm LS} = 0.53 \pm 0.11~\text{kpc}$, where $D_{\rm LS}$ is the distance between the lens and the source. The second event, OGLE-2017-BLG-1161, is subject to the known satellite parallax degeneracy, and thus is either a $0.51^{+0.12}_{-0.10} M_{\odot}$ star with $D_{\rm LS} = 0.40 \pm 0.12~\text{kpc}$ or a $0.38^{+0.13}_{-0.12} M_{\odot}$ star with $D_{\rm LS} = 0.53 \pm 0.19~\text{kpc}$. Both of the lenses are therefore isolated stars in the Galactic bulge. By comparing the mass and distance distributions of the eight published Spitzer finite-source events with the expectations from a Galactic model, we find that the Spitzer sample is in agreement with the probability of finite-source effects occurrence in single lens events.

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arXiv2019

OGLE-2018-BLG-0022: First Prediction of an Astrometric Microlensing Signal from a Photometric Microlensing Event

In this work, we present the analysis of the binary microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0022 that is detected toward the Galactic bulge field. The dense and continuous coverage with the high-quality photometry data from ground-based observations combined with the space-based {\it Spitzer} observations of this long time-scale event enables us to uniquely determine the masses $M_1=0.40 \pm 0.05~M_\odot$ and $M_2=0.13\pm 0.01~M_\odot$ of the individual lens components. Because the lens-source relative parallax and the vector lens-source relative proper motion are unambiguously determined, we can likewise unambiguously predict the astrometric offset between the light centroid of the magnified images (as observed by the {\it Gaia} satellite) and the true position of the source. This prediction can be tested when the individual-epoch {\it Gaia} astrometric measurements are released.

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