arXiv subjects

Angela Meyer

Publications and source records attributed to Angela Meyer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Generative multi-domain transfer learning for fault detection in data-scarce wind turbines

Normal behavior models have shown promise for reliable fault detection in wind turbines. However, these unsupervised anomaly detection models require sufficient fault-free training data to learn the normal operation behavior of turbines. Under data scarcity, for example in newly deployed wind turbines, these models may result in poor fault detection performance. In this work, we propose a multi-domain generative domain mapping approach based on Star Generative Adversarial Networks (StarGAN) to improve fault detection on data-scarce wind turbines. Our model maps SCADA measurements from a data-scarce turbine to resemble those of several data-rich turbines. By preserving the operational state during translation, faults occurring in a data-scarce domain can be mapped and detected by reliable pre-trained normal behavior models of data-rich domains. Highlighting the benefits of an ensemble fusion strategy, we show that under severe data scarcity our method can produce anomaly scores comparable to models trained on large representative datasets. Our approach can consistently outperform models trained on scarce data when less than 2 weeks of training data are available. With just 2 weeks of accumulated training data, we achieve an anomaly score similarity that is, on average, +16% higher than conventional fine-tuning, and +10% higher than single-source domain mapping. As a step towards unsupervised model selection, we propose a proxy metric that detects poor performance at training time, despite an absence of anomalies. Our study presents the potential and challenges of multi-domain mapping for wind turbine fault detection under unrepresentative training data.

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arXiv2026

Tropospheric temperature and humidity profile retrieval from Meteosat Flexible Combined Imager based on deep learning

The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) offers new opportunities for tropospheric temperature and humidity profiling, at higher spatio-temporal resolutions and expanded spectral coverage relative to its predecessor. Vertically resolved retrievals from broadband imagers are inherently challenging, and operational retrieval algorithms typically rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) background fields to compensate for limited infrared spectral resolution, reducing the retrievals' independence. We develop a spatially aware deep learning framework to retrieve all-sky tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles from FCI, without forecast profiles as input. A Residual U-Net that exploits spatial context across all 16 FCI channels was trained on 14 months of collocated FCI observations and CERRA reanalysis targets over Europe. Validated against independent radiosondes, retrieved temperatures show biases below 0.4 K and standard deviations of 1.5-1.9 K. Retrieved relative humidity standard deviations range from 12-20 %, compared to 9-19 % for CERRA. Performance degrades modestly under clouds, with standard deviation increases below 0.4 K and 3 % RH beneath cloud tops despite limited direct radiative information. Ablation experiments show that spatial context improves retrievals, with the largest gains below cloud tops. Feature sensitivity analysis indicates broad consistency with FCI bands' established radiative transfer characteristics. Visible and near-infrared channels contribute despite not being commonly used in physics-based profile inversions. These results demonstrate that spatially aware deep learning models can extract statistically reliable tropospheric profiles from geostationary imager observations, independent of NWP forecast fields, enabling more rapid autonomous monitoring of the atmosphere.

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arXiv2026

Skillful forecasting of offshore winds from satellite scatterometer constellations

Accurate intraday forecasts of offshore wind are becoming increasingly important for power system operation and the integration of growing shares of offshore wind energy. Operational forecasts rely predominantly on numerical weather prediction (NWP), which is not optimized for lead times of minutes to hours, where initial-condition accuracy dominates forecast skill. Although satellite scatterometer observations are routinely assimilated into NWP, they have not previously been used directly for forecasting. Here we present WindCastNet, the first satellite-based nowcasting framework for offshore wind speed and direction, introducing a new paradigm for intraday forecasting that learns from spatiotemporally irregular satellite observations. WindCastNet predicts offshore wind fields from observations acquired by satellite scatterometer constellations. WindCastNet employs a partial convolutional long short-term memory network that exploits microwave radar observations from the European, Chinese, and Indian scatterometers despite their irregular spatial coverage, asynchronous sampling, and variable revisit times. Spatial observation masks and inter-observation intervals are encoded, while a continuous temporal representation enables forecasts at arbitrary lead times. Evaluated over the North Sea, WindCastNet reduces the root-mean-square error by 23% and 7% relative to the HARMONIE MEPS model at lead times of 1 and 2 h, respectively, and outperforms persistence by 9-15% during the first three forecast hours. Forecast skill decreases under strong-wind conditions and spatially non-uniform flow. These results demonstrate that satellite scatterometer constellations can provide an independent and competitive source of short-term offshore wind forecasts, opening new opportunities for renewable energy forecasting but also broader marine weather applications, including tropical cyclone nowcasting.

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arXiv2026

Spatiotemporal downscaling and nowcasting of urban land surface temperatures with deep neural networks

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable for various applications, such as urban climate and ecology studies. Yet, existing satellite-derived LST products provide either high spatial or high temporal resolution, resulting in a fundamental trade-off between the two. To address this trade-off, we combine observations from a geostationary and a polar orbiting satellite and provide LST fields at high spatial and high temporal resolution (1 km at 15-min intervals). We demonstrate their application for intraday forecasting of LSTs. To estimate LST fields at high spatiotemporal resolution, a U-Net model is trained to map LST fields from SEVIRI/MSG (3 km and 15 min resolution) to LST fields from Terra/Aqua MODIS (1 km, 4 overpasses per day) that are collocated in space and time. The presented model has been trained on LSTs across large European cities with a population exceeding 1 million inhabitants, and achieves an RMSE = $1.92${\deg}C and near-zero bias MBE = $0.01${\deg}C on the hold-out test set. As a second step, we present an LST nowcasting model based on ConvLSTM architecture, trained across downscaled LST fields with forecast lead times of 15 to 75 minutes. The nowcasting model outperforms a persistence and a Climatological Rolling Median benchmarks, with RMSEs of $0.57$ to $1.15${\deg}C for the considered lead times and biases ranging from $-0.1$ to $0.14${\deg}C. An additional validation conducted against independent MODIS overpasses confirms robust performance. Our LST forecast model at high spatiotemporal resolution is directly applicable to operational satellite-based LST monitoring.

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arXiv2026

NeuroDDAF: Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields with Evidential Fusion for Air Quality Forecasting

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions. Physics-based models are interpretable but computationally expensive and often rely on restrictive assumptions, whereas purely data-driven models can be accurate but may lack robustness and calibrated uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields (NeuroDDAF), a physics-informed forecasting framework that unifies neural representation learning with open-system transport modeling. NeuroDDAF integrates (i) a GRU-Graph Attention encoder to capture temporal dynamics and wind-aware spatial interactions, (ii) a Fourier-domain diffusion-advection module with learnable residuals, (iii) a wind-modulated latent Neural ODE to model continuous-time evolution under time-varying connectivity, and (iv) an evidential fusion mechanism that adaptively combines physics-guided and neural forecasts while quantifying uncertainty. Experiments on four urban datasets (Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Ancona) across 1-3 day horizons show that NeuroDDAF consistently outperforms strong baselines, including AirPhyNet, achieving up to 9.7% reduction in RMSE and 9.4% reduction in MAE on long-term forecasts. On the Beijing dataset, NeuroDDAF attains an RMSE of 41.63 $\mu$g/m$^3$ for 1-day prediction and 48.88 $\mu$g/m$^3$ for 3-day prediction, representing the best performance among all compared methods. In addition, NeuroDDAF improves cross-city generalization and yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as confirmed by ensemble variance analysis and case studies under varying wind conditions.

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arXiv2026

Characterization and forecasting of national-scale solar power ramp events

The rapid growth of solar energy is reshaping power system operations and increasing the complexity of grid management. As photovoltaic (PV) capacity expands, short-term fluctuations in PV generation introduce substantial operational uncertainty. At the same time, solar power ramp events intensify risks of grid instability and unplanned outages due to sudden large power fluctuations. Accurate identification, forecasting and mitigation of solar ramp events are therefore critical to maintaining grid stability. In this study, we analyze two years of PV power production from 6434 PV stations at 15-minute resolution. We develop quantitative metrics to define solar ramp events and systematically characterize their occurrence, frequency, and magnitude at a national scale. Furthermore, we examine the meteorological drivers of ramp events, highlighting the role of mesoscale cloud systems. In particular, we observe that ramp-up events are typically associated with cloud dissipation during the morning, while ramp-down events commonly occur when cloud cover increases in the afternoon. Additionally, we adopt a recently developed spatiotemporal forecasting framework to evaluate both deterministic and probabilistic PV power forecasts derived from deep learning and physics-based models, including SolarSTEPS, SHADECast, IrradianceNet, and IFS-ENS. The results show that SHADECast is the most reliable model, achieving a CRPS 10.8% lower than that of SolarSTEPS at a two-hour lead time. Nonetheless, state-of-the-art nowcasting models struggle to capture ramp dynamics, with forecast RMSE increasing by up to 50% compared to normal operating conditions. Overall, these results emphasize the need for improved high-resolution spatiotemporal modelling to enhance ramp prediction skill and support the reliable integration of large-scale solar generation into power systems.

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arXiv2026

Intraday spatiotemporal PV power prediction at national scale using satellite-based solar forecast models

We present a novel framework for spatiotemporal photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting and use it to evaluate the reliability, sharpness, and overall performance of seven intraday PV power nowcasting models. The model suite includes satellite-based deep learning and optical-flow approaches and physics-based numerical weather prediction models, covering both deterministic and probabilistic formulations. Forecasts are first validated against satellite-derived surface solar irradiance (SSI). Irradiance fields are then converted into PV power using station-specific machine learning models, enabling comparison with production data from 6434 PV stations across Switzerland. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate spatiotemporal PV forecasting at a national scale. We additionally provide the first visualizations of how mesoscale cloud systems shape national PV production on hourly and sub-hourly timescales. Our results show that satellite-based approaches outperform the Integrated Forecast System (IFS-ENS), particularly at short lead times. Among them, SolarSTEPS and SHADECast deliver the most accurate SSI and PV power predictions, with SHADECast providing the most reliable ensemble spread. The deterministic model IrradianceNet achieves the lowest root mean square error, while probabilistic forecasts of SolarSTEPS and SHADECast provide better-calibrated uncertainty. Forecast skill generally decreases with elevation. At a national scale, satellite-based models forecast the daily total PV generation with relative errors below 10% for 82% of the days in 2019-2020, demonstrating robustness and their potential for operational use.

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arXiv2025

Fault Detection in New Wind Turbines with Limited Data by Generative Transfer Learning

Intelligent condition monitoring of wind turbines is essential for reducing downtimes. Machine learning models trained on wind turbine operation data are commonly used to detect anomalies and, eventually, operation faults. However, data-driven normal behavior models (NBMs) require a substantial amount of training data, as NBMs trained with scarce data may result in unreliable fault detection. To overcome this limitation, we present a novel generative deep transfer learning approach to make SCADA samples from one wind turbine lacking training data resemble SCADA data from wind turbines with representative training data. Through CycleGAN-based domain mapping, our method enables the application of an NBM trained on an existing wind turbine to a new one with severely limited data. We demonstrate our approach on field data mapping SCADA samples across 7 substantially different WTs. Our findings show significantly improved fault detection in wind turbines with scarce data. Our method achieves the most similar anomaly scores to an NBM trained with abundant data, outperforming NBMs trained on scarce training data with improvements of +10.3% in F1-score when 1 month of training data is available and +16.8% when 2 weeks are available. The domain mapping approach outperforms conventional fine-tuning at all considered degrees of data scarcity, ranging from 1 to 8 weeks of training data. The proposed technique enables earlier and more reliable fault detection in newly installed wind farms, demonstrating a novel and promising research direction to improve anomaly detection when faced with training data scarcity.

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arXiv2024

Wind turbine condition monitoring based on intra- and inter-farm federated learning

As wind energy adoption is growing, ensuring the efficient operation and maintenance of wind turbines becomes essential for maximizing energy production and minimizing costs and downtime. Many AI applications in wind energy, such as in condition monitoring and power forecasting, may benefit from using operational data not only from individual wind turbines but from multiple turbines and multiple wind farms. Collaborative distributed AI which preserves data privacy holds a strong potential for these applications. Federated learning has emerged as a privacy-preserving distributed machine learning approach in this context. We explore federated learning in wind turbine condition monitoring, specifically for fault detection using normal behaviour models. We investigate various federated learning strategies, including collaboration across different wind farms and turbine models, as well as collaboration restricted to the same wind farm and turbine model. Our case study results indicate that federated learning across multiple wind turbines consistently outperforms models trained on a single turbine, especially when training data is scarce. Moreover, the amount of historical data necessary to train an effective model can be significantly reduced by employing a collaborative federated learning strategy. Finally, our findings show that extending the collaboration to multiple wind farms may result in inferior performance compared to restricting learning within a farm, specifically when faced with statistical heterogeneity and imbalanced datasets.

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arXiv2024

Bias correction of wind power forecasts with SCADA data and continuous learning

Wind energy plays a critical role in the transition towards renewable energy sources. However, the uncertainty and variability of wind can impede its full potential and the necessary growth of wind power capacity. To mitigate these challenges, wind power forecasting methods are employed for applications in power management, energy trading, or maintenance scheduling. In this work, we present, evaluate, and compare four machine learning-based wind power forecasting models. Our models correct and improve 48-hour forecasts extracted from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The models are evaluated on datasets from a wind park comprising 65 wind turbines. The best improvement in forecasting error and mean bias was achieved by a convolutional neural network, reducing the average NRMSE down to 22%, coupled with a significant reduction in mean bias, compared to a NRMSE of 35% from the strongly biased baseline model using uncorrected NWP forecasts. Our findings further indicate that changes to neural network architectures play a minor role in affecting the forecasting performance, and that future research should rather investigate changes in the model pipeline. Moreover, we introduce a continuous learning strategy, which is shown to achieve the highest forecasting performance improvements when new data is made available.

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arXiv2023

Extending intraday solar forecast horizons with deep generative models

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) plays a crucial role in tackling climate change - as an abundant, non-fossil energy source, exploited primarily via photovoltaic (PV) energy production. With the growing contribution of SSI to total energy production, the stability of the latter is challenged by the intermittent character of the former, arising primarily from cloud effects. Mitigating this stability challenge requires accurate, uncertainty-aware, near real-time, regional-scale SSI forecasts with lead times of minutes to a few hours, enabling robust real-time energy grid management. State-of-the-art nowcasting methods typically meet only some of these requirements. Here we present SHADECast, a deep generative diffusion model for the probabilistic spatiotemporal nowcasting of SSI, conditioned on deterministic aspects of cloud evolution to guide the probabilistic ensemble forecast, and based on near real-time satellite data. We demonstrate that SHADECast provides improved forecast quality, reliability, and accuracy in different weather scenarios. Our model produces realistic and spatiotemporally consistent predictions outperforming the state of the art by 15% in the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) over different regions up to 512 km x 512 km with lead times of 15-120 min. Conditioning the ensemble generation on deterministic forecasts improves reliability and performance by more than 7% on CRPS. Our approach empowers grid operators and energy traders to make informed decisions, ensuring stability and facilitating the seamless integration of PV energy across multiple locations simultaneously.

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arXiv2023

A review of federated learning in renewable energy applications: Potential, challenges, and future directions

Federated learning has recently emerged as a privacy-preserving distributed machine learning approach. Federated learning enables collaborative training of multiple clients and entire fleets without sharing the involved training datasets. By preserving data privacy, federated learning has the potential to overcome the lack of data sharing in the renewable energy sector which is inhibiting innovation, research and development. Our paper provides an overview of federated learning in renewable energy applications. We discuss federated learning algorithms and survey their applications and case studies in renewable energy generation and consumption. We also evaluate the potential and the challenges associated with federated learning applied in power and energy contexts. Finally, we outline promising future research directions in federated learning for applications in renewable energy.

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arXiv2023

Intraday probabilistic forecasts of solar resources with cloud scale-dependent autoregressive advection

Solar energy supply is usually highly volatile which limits its integration in the power grid. Accurate probabilistic intraday forecasts of solar resources are essential to increase the share of photovoltaic (PV) energy in the grid and enable cost-efficient balancing of power demand and supply. Solar PV production mainly depends on downwelling surface solar radiation (SSR). By estimating SSR from geostationary satellites, we can cover large areas with high spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing us to track cloud motion. State-of-the-art probabilistic forecasts of solar resources from satellite imagery account only for the advective motion of clouds. They do not consider the evolution of clouds over time, their growth, and dissipation, even though these are major sources of forecast uncertainty. To address the uncertainty of cloudiness evolution, we present SolarSTEPS, the first optical-flow probabilistic model able to simulate the temporal variability of cloudiness. We demonstrate that forecasting the autocorrelated scale-dependent evolution of cloudiness outperforms state-of-the-art probabilistic advection-based forecasts by 9% in continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). This corresponds to an extension of the forecast lead time by about 45 minutes at constant CRPS. Our work is motivated by the scale-dependent predictability of cloud growth and decay. We demonstrate that cloudiness is more variable in time at smaller spatial scales than at larger ones. Specifically, the temporal autocorrelation of cloudiness is related to its spatial scale by a rational function. We also demonstrate that decomposing cloudiness into multiple spatial scales in the forecasts further improves the forecast skill, reducing the CRPS by 10% and the RMSE by 9%.

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arXiv2022

Towards Fleet-wide Sharing of Wind Turbine Condition Information through Privacy-preserving Federated Learning

Terabytes of data are collected by wind turbine manufacturers from their fleets every day. And yet, a lack of data access and sharing impedes exploiting the full potential of the data. We present a distributed machine learning approach that preserves the data privacy by leaving the data on the wind turbines while still enabling fleet-wide learning on those local data. We show that through federated fleet-wide learning, turbines with little or no representative training data can benefit from more accurate normal behavior models. Customizing the global federated model to individual turbines yields the highest fault detection accuracy in cases where the monitored target variable is distributed heterogeneously across the fleet. We demonstrate this for bearing temperatures, a target variable whose normal behavior can vary widely depending on the turbine. We show that no turbine experiences a loss in model performance from participating in the federated learning process, resulting in superior performance of the federated learning strategy in our case studies. The distributed learning increases the normal behavior model training times by about a factor of ten due to increased communication overhead and slower model convergence.

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arXiv2022

Satellite-derived solar radiation for intra-hour and intra-day applications: Biases and uncertainties by season and altitude

Accurate estimates of the surface solar radiation (SSR) are a prerequisite for intra-day forecasts of solar resources and photovoltaic power generation. Intra-day SSR forecasts are of interest to power traders and to operators of solar plants and power grids who seek to optimize their revenues and maintain the grid stability by matching power supply and demand. Our study analyzes systematic biases and the uncertainty of SSR estimates derived from Meteosat with the SARAH-2 and HelioMont algorithms at intra-hour and intra-day time scales. The satellite SSR estimates are analyzed based on 136 ground stations across altitudes from 200 m to 3570 m Switzerland in 2018. We find major biases and uncertainties in the instantaneous, hourly and daily-mean SSR. In peak daytime periods, the instantaneous satellite SSR deviates from the ground-measured SSR by a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 110.4 and 99.6 W/m2 for SARAH-2 and HelioMont, respectively. For the daytime SSR, the instantaneous, hourly and daily-mean MADs amount to 91.7, 81.1, 50.8 and 82.5, 66.7, 42.9 W/m2 for SARAH-2 and HelioMont, respectively. Further, the SARAH-2 instantaneous SSR drastically underestimates the solar resources at altitudes above 1000 m in the winter half year. A possible explanation in line with the seasonality of the bias is that snow cover may be misinterpreted as clouds at higher altitudes.

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arXiv2022

Vibration fault detection in wind turbines based on normal behaviour models without feature engineering

Most wind turbines are remotely monitored 24/7 to allow for an early detection of operation problems and developing damage. We present a new fault detection method for vibration-monitored drivetrains that does not require any feature engineering. Our method relies on a simple model architecture to enable a straightforward implementation in practice. We propose to apply convolutional autoencoders for identifying and extracting the most relevant features from the half spectrum in an automated manner, saving time and effort. Thereby, a spectral model of the normal vibration response is learnt for the monitored component from past measurements. We demonstrate that the model can successfully distinguish damaged from healthy components and detect a damaged generator bearing and damaged gearbox parts from their vibration responses. Using measurements from commercial wind turbines and a test rig, we show that vibration-based fault detection in wind turbine drivetrains can be performed without the usual upfront definition of spectral features. Another advantage of the presented method is that the entire half spectrum is monitored instead of the usual focus on monitoring individual frequencies and harmonics.

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arXiv2022

Vibration Fault Diagnosis in Wind Turbines based on Automated Feature Learning

A growing number of wind turbines are equipped with vibration measurement systems to enable a close monitoring and early detection of developing fault conditions. The vibration measurements are analyzed to continuously assess the component health and prevent failures that can result in downtimes. This study focuses on gearbox monitoring but is applicable also to other subsystems. The current state-of-the-art gearbox fault diagnosis algorithms rely on statistical or machine learning methods based on fault signatures that have been defined by human analysts. This has multiple disadvantages. Defining the fault signatures by human analysts is a time-intensive process that requires highly detailed knowledge of the gearbox composition. This effort needs to be repeated for every new turbine, so it does not scale well with the increasing number of monitored turbines, especially in fast growing portfolios. Moreover, fault signatures defined by human analysts can result in biased and imprecise decision boundaries that lead to imprecise and uncertain fault diagnosis decisions. We present a novel accurate fault diagnosis method for vibration-monitored wind turbine components that overcomes these disadvantages. Our approach combines autonomous data-driven learning of fault signatures and health state classification based on convolutional neural networks and isolation forests. We demonstrate its performance with vibration measurements from two wind turbine gearboxes. Unlike the state-of-the-art methods, our approach does not require gearbox-type specific diagnosis expertise and is not restricted to predefined frequencies or spectral ranges but can monitor the full spectrum at once.

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arXiv2021

Multi-target normal behaviour models for wind farm condition monitoring

The trend towards larger wind turbines and remote locations of wind farms fuels the demand for automated condition monitoring strategies that can reduce the operating cost and avoid unplanned downtime. Normal behaviour modelling has been introduced to detect anomalous deviations from normal operation based on the turbine's SCADA data. A growing number of machine learning models of the normal behaviour of turbine subsystems are being developed by wind farm managers to this end. However, these models need to be kept track of, be maintained and require frequent updates. This research explores multi-target models as a new approach to capturing a wind turbine's normal behaviour. We present an overview of multi-target regression methods, motivate their application and benefits in wind turbine condition monitoring, and assess their performance in a wind farm case study. We find that multi-target models are advantageous in comparison to single-target modelling in that they can reduce the cost and effort of practical condition monitoring without compromising on the accuracy. We also outline some areas of future research.

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