arXiv subjects

Angela Wood

Publications and source records attributed to Angela Wood.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

KAPLAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Prognostic Learnable Activation Networks for Survival Analysis

Survival analysis aims to model how covariates and time jointly shape the time-to-event distribution under right censoring. Classical methods such as the Cox model and generalised additive models (GAMs) require interactions and time-varying effects to be manually specified, which is increasingly impractical on rich clinical datasets. We introduce KAPLAN-HR, a B-spline Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) for nonparametric estimation of the conditional hazard as a joint function of covariates and time. A single-layer KAPLAN-HR model recovers a GAM, while deeper architectures capture interactions and time-varying effects through composition. We establish a convergence rate for the nonparametric KAN hazard estimator that depends only on the smoothness of the underlying KAN representation and not on the covariate dimension, thereby mitigating the curse of dimensionality for KAN-representable targets. In evaluations over six clinical benchmark datasets, KAPLAN-HR matches or exceeds the predictive performance of established statistical and deep learning survival methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Compatibility of Missing Data Handling Methods across the Stages of Producing Clinical Prediction Models

Missing data is a challenge when developing, validating and deploying clinical prediction models (CPMs). Traditionally, decisions concerning missing data handling during CPM development and validation havent accounted for whether missingness is allowed at deployment. We hypothesised that the missing data approach used during model development should optimise model performance upon deployment, whilst the approach used during model validation should yield unbiased predictive performance estimates upon deployment; we term this compatibility. We aimed to determine which combinations of missing data handling methods across the CPM life cycle are compatible. We considered scenarios where CPMs are intended to be deployed with missing data allowed or not, and we evaluated the impact of that choice on earlier modelling decisions. Through a simulation study and an empirical analysis of thoracic surgery data, we compared CPMs developed and validated using combinations of complete case analysis, mean imputation, single regression imputation, multiple imputation, and pattern sub-modelling. If planning to deploy a CPM without allowing missing data, then development and validation should use multiple imputation when required. Where missingness is allowed at deployment, the same imputation method must be used during development and validation. Commonly used combinations of missing data handling methods result in biased predictive performance estimates.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

FedMAP: Personalised Federated Learning for Real Large-Scale Healthcare Systems

Federated learning (FL) promises to enable collaborative machine learning across healthcare sites whilst preserving data privacy. Practical deployment remains limited by statistical heterogeneity arising from differences in patient demographics, treatments, and outcomes, and infrastructure constraints. We introduce FedMAP, a personalised FL (PFL) framework that addresses heterogeneity through local Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimation with Input Convex Neural Network priors. These priors represent global knowledge gathered from other sites that guides the model while adapting to local data, and we provide a formal proof of convergence. Unlike many PFL methods that rely on fixed regularisation, FedMAP's prior adaptively learns patterns that capture complex inter-site relationships. We demonstrate improved performance compared to local training, FedAvg, and several PFL methods across three large-scale clinical datasets: 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction (CPRD, 387 general practitioner practices, 258,688 patients), iron deficiency detection (INTERVAL, 4 donor centres, 31,949 blood donors), and mortality prediction (eICU, 150 hospitals, 44,842 patients). FedMAP incorporates a three-tier design that enables participation across healthcare sites with varying infrastructure and technical capabilities, from full federated training to inference-only deployment. Geographical analysis reveals substantial equity improvements, with underperforming regions achieving up to 14.3% performance gains. This framework provides the first practical pathway for large-scale healthcare FL deployment, which ensures clinical sites at all scales can benefit, equity is enhanced, and privacy is retained.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Extending the MR-Egger method for multivariable Mendelian randomization to correct for both measured and unmeasured pleiotropy

Methods have been developed for Mendelian randomization that can obtain consistent causal estimates while relaxing the instrumental variable assumptions. These include multivariable Mendelian randomization, in which a genetic variant may be associated with multiple risk factors so long as any association with the outcome is via the measured risk factors (measured pleiotropy), and the MR-Egger (Mendelian randomization-Egger) method, in which a genetic variant may be directly associated with the outcome not via the risk factor of interest, so long as the direct effects of the variants on the outcome are uncorrelated with their associations with the risk factor (unmeasured pleiotropy). In this paper, we extend the MR-Egger method to a multivariable setting to correct for both measured and unmeasured pleiotropy. We show, through theoretical arguments and a simulation study, that the multivariable MR-Egger method has advantages over its univariable counterpart in terms of plausibility of the assumption needed for consistent causal estimation, and power to detect a causal effect when this assumption is satisfied. The methods are compared in an applied analysis to investigate the causal effect of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol on coronary heart disease risk. The multivariable MR-Egger method will be useful to analyse high-dimensional data in situations where the risk factors are highly related and it is difficult to find genetic variants specifically associated with the risk factor of interest (multivariable by design), and as a sensitivity analysis when the genetic variants are known to have pleiotropic effects on measured risk factors.

stat.ME↗