arXiv subjects

Anna Gottard

Publications and source records attributed to Anna Gottard.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bayesian Multi-Group Functional Factor Models with Parameter-Expanded Cumulative Shrinkage Priors

Functional data consist of trajectories observed over a continuous domain, such as time, space, or wavelength. Here we consider curves observed on different groups of subjects and propose a Bayesian multi-group functional factor analysis framework that jointly models the data via an explicit decomposition into group-specific mean functions and latent components that capture both common and distinct latent structures across the groups. We represent these functional components as linear combinations of a common set of B-spline bases, achieving a low-rank representation of the latent factors. We further impose a parameter-expanded cumulative shrinkage process prior on the factor loadings, which induces increasing shrinkage and automatically selects the number of active shared and group-specific factors. We evaluate the model's performance through simulation studies and show that the model accurately recovers the number of underlying factors and effectively distinguishes variations in functional observations driven by shared versus group-specific complex structures under various scenarios. For real data analysis, we apply the model to EEG data on alcoholic and healthy subjects and identify shared latent factors, that capture canonical characteristic components of the EEG curves, along with group-specific factors that reveal specific neural activity patterns.

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arXiv2026

Copula-based models for spatially dependent cylindrical data

Cylindrical data frequently arise across various scientific disciplines, including meteorology (e.g., wind direction and speed), oceanography (e.g., marine current direction and speed or wave heights), ecology (e.g., telemetry), and medicine (e.g., seasonality and intensity in disease onset). Such data often occur as spatially correlated series of intensities and angles, thereby representing dependent bivariate response vectors of linear and circular components. To accommodate both the circular-linear dependence and spatial autocorrelation, while remaining flexible in marginal specifications, copula-based models for cylindrical data have been developed in the literature. However, existing approaches typically treat the copula parameters as constants unrelated to covariates, and regression specifications for marginal distributions are frequently restricted to linear predictors, thereby ignoring spatial correlation. In this work, we propose a structured additive conditional copula regression model for cylindrical data. The circular component is modeled using a wrapped Gaussian process, and the linear component follows a distributional regression model. Both components allow for the inclusion of linear covariate effects. Furthermore, by leveraging the empirical equivalence between Gaussian random fields (GRFs) and Gaussian Markov random fields, our approach avoids the computational burden typically associated with GRFs, while simultaneously allowing for non-stationarity in the covariance structure. Posterior estimation is performed via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We evaluate the proposed model in a simulation study and subsequently in an analysis of wind directions and speed in Germany.

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arXiv2025

A Bayesian Approach for Inference on Mixed Graphical Models

Mixed data refers to a type of data in which variables can be of multiple types, such as continuous, discrete, or categorical. This data is routinely collected in various fields, including healthcare and social sciences. A common goal in the analysis of such data is to identify dependence relationships between variables, for an understanding of their associations. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian pairwise graphical model that estimates conditional independencies between any type of data. We implement a flexible modeling construction, that includes zero-inflated count data and can also handle missing data. We show that the model maintains both global and local Markov properties. We employ a spike-and-slab prior for the estimation of the graph and implement an MCMC algorithm for posterior inference based on conditional likelihoods. We assess performances on four simulation scenarios with distinct dependence structures, that also include cases with data missing at random, and compare results with existing methods. Finally, we present an analysis of real data from adolescents diagnosed with an eating disorder. Estimated graphs show differences in the associations estimated at intake and discharge, suggesting possible effects of the treatment on cognitive and behavioral measures in the adolescents.

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arXiv2024

Bayesian Controlled FDR Variable Selection via Parameter-Expanded Latent Knockoffs

In many research fields, researchers aim to identify significant associations between a set of explanatory variables and a response while controlling the FDR. The Knockoff filter has been recently proposed in the frequentist paradigm to introduce controlled noise in a model by cleverly constructing copies of the predictors as auxiliary variables. We develop a fully Bayesian generalization of the classical model-X knockoff filter for normally distributed covariates. In our approach, we consider a joint model for the covariates and the response, where the conditional independence structure of the covariates is captured through a Gaussian graphical model and used to define a latent knockoff layer through a parameter-expanded representation of the response model. Estimating the covariate graph informs the knockoff construction and improves inference on the covariate effects. We use a modified spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients, avoiding the increase of the model dimension typical of the classical knockoff filter. We also address extensions to non-Gaussian responses. Our model performs variable selection using an upper bound on the posterior probability of non-inclusion. We show that the induced latent knockoff layer defines valid Gaussian model-X knockoffs under the proposed construction and that the resulting procedure controls the Bayesian FDR at an arbitrary level, in finite samples, if the distribution of the covariates is fully known; under an estimated graphical structure, it satisfies an asymptotic FDR guarantee. We use simulated data to demonstrate that our proposal increases the stability of the selection with respect to classical knockoff methods. With respect to Bayesian variable selection methods, our selection procedure achieves comparable or better performances, while maintaining control over the FDR. We conclude with an application to real data.

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arXiv2024

Uncertainty-Aware Fairness-Adaptive Classification Trees

In an era where artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms increasingly impact human life, it is crucial to develop models that account for potential discrimination in their predictions. This paper tackles this problem by introducing a new classification tree algorithm using a novel splitting criterion that incorporates fairness adjustments into the tree-building process. The proposed method integrates a fairness-aware impurity measure that balances predictive accuracy with fairness across protected groups. By ensuring that each splitting node considers both the gain in classification error and the fairness, our algorithm encourages splits that mitigate discrimination. Importantly, in penalizing unfair splits, we account for the uncertainty in the fairness metric by utilizing its confidence interval instead of relying on its point estimate. Experimental results on benchmark and synthetic datasets illustrate that our method effectively reduces discriminatory predictions compared to traditional classification trees, without significant loss in overall accuracy.

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arXiv2021

Graphical models for circular variables

Graphical models are a key class of probabilistic models for studying the conditional independence structure of a set of random variables. Circular variables are special variables, characterized by periodicity, arising in several contexts and fields. However, models for studying the dependence/independence structure of circular variables are under-explored. This paper analyses three multivariate circular distributions, the von Mises, the Wrapped Normal and the Inverse Stereographic distributions, focusing on their properties concerning conditional independence. For each one of these distributions, we discuss the main properties related to conditional independence and introduce suitable classes of graphical models. The usefulness of the proposed models is shown by modelling the conditional independence among dihedral angles characterizing the three-dimensional structure of some proteins.

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arXiv2018

Modelling Ordinal Responses with Uncertainty: a Hierarchical Marginal Model with Latent Uncertainty components

In responding to rating questions, an individual may give answers either according to his/her knowledge/awareness or to his/her level of indecision/uncertainty, typically driven by a response style. As ignoring this dual behaviour may lead to misleading results, we define a multivariate model for ordinal rating responses, by introducing, for every item, a binary latent variable that discriminates aware from uncertain responses. Some independence assumptions among latent and observable variables characterize the uncertain behaviour and make the model easier to interpret. Uncertain responses are modelled by specifying probability distributions that can depict different response styles characterizing the uncertain raters. A marginal parametrization allows a simple and direct interpretation of the parameters in terms of association among aware responses and their dependence on explanatory factors. The effectiveness of the proposed model is attested through an application to real data and supported by a Monte Carlo study.

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