arXiv subjects

Anna Stelzer

Publications and source records attributed to Anna Stelzer.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Scenario Analysis with Multivariate Bayesian Machine Learning Models

We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on predictive simulation and sequential Monte Carlo methods. Their utility is demonstrated with three applications: (1) conditional forecasts based on stress test scenarios, measuring (2) macroeconomic risk under varying financial stress, and estimating the (3) asymmetric effects of financial shocks in the US and their international spillovers. Our empirical results indicate the importance of nonlinearities and asymmetries in relationships between macroeconomic and financial variables.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Data Using Gaussian Processes

We develop Bayesian machine learning methods for mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. This involves handling frequency mismatches and specifying functional relationships between many predictors and the dependent variable. We use Gaussian processes (GPs) and compress the input space with structured and unstructured MIDAS variants. This yields several versions of GP-MIDAS with distinct properties and implications, which we evaluate in short-horizon now- and forecasting exercises with both simulated data and data on quarterly US output growth and inflation in the GDP deflator. It turns out that our proposed framework leverages macroeconomic Big Data in a computationally efficient way and offers gains in predictive accuracy compared to other machine learning approaches along several dimensions.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2023

Monetary policy and the joint distribution of income and wealth: The heterogeneous case of the euro area

This papers aims to establish the empirical relationship between income, net wealth and their joint distribution in a selected group of euro area countries. I estimate measures of dependence between income and net wealth using a semiparametric copula approach and calculate a bivariate Gini coefficient. By combining structural inference from vector autoregressions on the macroeconomic level with a simulation using microeconomic data, I investigate how conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures affect the joint distribution. Results indicate that effects of monetary policy are highly heterogeneous across different countries, both in terms of the dependence of income and net wealth on each other, and in terms of inequality in both income and net wealth.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty

In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) conditional on the prevailing level of uncertainty. To obtain exogenous variation in central bank policy, we rely on high-frequency surprises in financial market data for the euro area (EA) around policy announcement dates. We trace the dynamic effects of shocks to the short-term policy rate, forward guidance and quantitative easing on several key macroeconomic and financial quantities alongside survey-based measures of expectations. For this purpose, we propose a Bayesian smooth-transition vector autoregression (ST-VAR). Our results suggest that transmission channels are impaired when uncertainty is elevated. While conventional monetary policy is less effective during such periods, and sometimes also forward guidance, quantitative easing measures seem to work comparatively well in uncertain times.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2019

High-frequency and heteroskedasticity identification in multicountry models: Revisiting spillovers of monetary shocks

We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables across several major economies to address both static and dynamic spillovers. To identify structural shocks, we introduce a novel approach that combines external instruments with heteroskedasticity-based identification and sign restrictions. Our results suggest significant spillovers from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policies to each other's economies, global aggregates, and other countries. These effects are more pronounced for central bank information shocks than for pure monetary policy shocks, and the dominance of the US in the global economy is reflected in our findings.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2019

Predicting credit default probabilities using machine learning techniques in the face of unequal class distributions

This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performance is evaluated over four different data sets in combination with five data sampling strategies to tackle existing class imbalances in the data. Six different performance measures are used to cover different aspects of predictive performance. The results indicate a strong superiority of ensemble methods and show that simple sampling strategies deliver better results than more sophisticated ones.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2018

Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area

In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent quantity during estimation. Only a limited number of contributions to the literature estimate uncertainty and its macroeconomic consequences jointly, and most are based on single country models. We analyze the special case of a shock restricted to the Euro area, where member states are highly related by construction. We find significant results of a decrease in real activity for all countries over a period of roughly a year following an uncertainty shock. Moreover, equity prices, short-term interest rates and exports tend to decline, while unemployment levels increase. Dynamic responses across countries differ slightly in magnitude and duration, with Ireland, Slovakia and Greece exhibiting different reactions for some macroeconomic fundamentals.

econ.EM↗