arXiv subjects

Annie Qu

Publications and source records attributed to Annie Qu.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Dynamic Topic Language Model on Heterogeneous Children's Mental Health Clinical Notes

Mental health diseases affect children's lives and well-beings which have received increased attention since the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyzing psychiatric clinical notes with topic models is critical to evaluating children's mental status over time. However, few topic models are built for longitudinal settings, and most existing approaches fail to capture temporal trajectories for each document. To address these challenges, we develop a dynamic topic model with consistent topics and individualized temporal dependencies on the evolving document metadata. Our model preserves the semantic meaning of discovered topics over time and incorporates heterogeneity among documents. In particular, when documents can be categorized, we propose a classifier-free approach to maximize topic heterogeneity across different document groups. We also present an efficient variational optimization procedure adapted for the multistage longitudinal setting. In this case study, we apply our method to the psychiatric clinical notes from a large tertiary pediatric hospital in Southern California and achieve a 38% increase in the overall coherence of extracted topics. Our real data analysis reveals that children tend to express more negative emotions during state shutdowns and more positive when schools reopen. Furthermore, it suggests that sexual and gender minority (SGM) children display more pronounced reactions to major COVID-19 events and a greater sensitivity to vaccine-related news than non-SGM children. This study examines children's mental health progression during the pandemic and offers clinicians valuable insights to recognize disparities in children's mental health related to their sexual and gender identities.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Optimal Transport for Latent Integration with An Application to Heterogeneous Neuronal Activity Data

Detecting dynamic patterns of task-specific responses shared across heterogeneous datasets is an essential and challenging problem in many scientific applications in medical science and neuroscience. In our motivating example of rodent electrophysiological data, identifying the dynamical patterns in neuronal activity associated with ongoing cognitive demands and behavior is key to uncovering the neural mechanisms of memory. One of the greatest challenges in investigating a cross-subject biological process is that the systematic heterogeneity across individuals could significantly undermine the power of existing machine learning methods to identify the underlying biological dynamics. In addition, many technically challenging neurobiological experiments are conducted on only a handful of subjects where rich longitudinal data are available for each subject. The low sample sizes of such experiments could further reduce the power to detect common dynamic patterns among subjects. In this paper, we propose a novel heterogeneous data integration framework based on optimal transport to extract shared patterns in complex biological processes. The key advantages of the proposed method are that it can increase discriminating power in identifying common patterns by reducing heterogeneity unrelated to the signal by aligning the extracted latent spatiotemporal information across subjects. Our approach is effective even with a small number of subjects, and does not require auxiliary matching information for the alignment. In particular, our method can align longitudinal data across heterogeneous subjects in a common latent space to capture the dynamics of shared patterns while utilizing temporal dependency within subjects.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2024

Individualized Dynamic Latent Factor Model for Multi-resolutional Data with Application to Mobile Health

Mobile health has emerged as a major success for tracking individual health status, due to the popularity and power of smartphones and wearable devices. This has also brought great challenges in handling heterogeneous, multi-resolution data which arise ubiquitously in mobile health due to irregular multivariate measurements collected from individuals. In this paper, we propose an individualized dynamic latent factor model for irregular multi-resolution time series data to interpolate unsampled measurements of time series with low resolution. One major advantage of the proposed method is the capability to integrate multiple irregular time series and multiple subjects by mapping the multi-resolution data to the latent space. In addition, the proposed individualized dynamic latent factor model is applicable to capturing heterogeneous longitudinal information through individualized dynamic latent factors. Our theory provides a bound on the integrated interpolation error and the convergence rate for B-spline approximation methods. Both the simulation studies and the application to smartwatch data demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method compared to existing methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Multi-Label Residual Weighted Learning for Individualized Combination Treatment Rule

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) have been widely applied in many fields such as precision medicine and personalized marketing. Beyond the extensive studies on ITR for binary or multiple treatments, there is considerable interest in applying combination treatments. This paper introduces a novel ITR estimation method for combination treatments incorporating interaction effects among treatments. Specifically, we propose the generalized $ψ$-loss as a non-convex surrogate in the residual weighted learning framework, offering desirable statistical and computational properties. Statistically, the minimizer of the proposed surrogate loss is Fisher-consistent with the optimal decision rules, incorporating interaction effects at any intensity level - a significant improvement over existing methods. Computationally, the proposed method applies the difference-of-convex algorithm for efficient computation. Through simulation studies and real-world data applications, we demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method in recommending combination treatments.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Distributional Shift-Aware Off-Policy Interval Estimation: A Unified Error Quantification Framework

We study high-confidence off-policy evaluation in the context of infinite-horizon Markov decision processes, where the objective is to establish a confidence interval (CI) for the target policy value using only offline data pre-collected from unknown behavior policies. This task faces two primary challenges: providing a comprehensive and rigorous error quantification in CI estimation, and addressing the distributional shift that results from discrepancies between the distribution induced by the target policy and the offline data-generating process. Motivated by an innovative unified error analysis, we jointly quantify the two sources of estimation errors: the misspecification error on modeling marginalized importance weights and the statistical uncertainty due to sampling, within a single interval. This unified framework reveals a previously hidden tradeoff between the errors, which undermines the tightness of the CI. Relying on a carefully designed discriminator function, the proposed estimator achieves a dual purpose: breaking the curse of the tradeoff to attain the tightest possible CI, and adapting the CI to ensure robustness against distributional shifts. Our method is applicable to time-dependent data without assuming any weak dependence conditions via leveraging a local supermartingale/martingale structure. Theoretically, we show that our algorithm is sample-efficient, error-robust, and provably convergent even in non-linear function approximation settings. The numerical performance of the proposed method is examined in synthetic datasets and an OhioT1DM mobile health study.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Stackelberg Batch Policy Learning

Batch reinforcement learning (RL) defines the task of learning from a fixed batch of data lacking exhaustive exploration. Worst-case optimality algorithms, which calibrate a value-function model class from logged experience and perform some type of pessimistic evaluation under the learned model, have emerged as a promising paradigm for batch RL. However, contemporary works on this stream have commonly overlooked the hierarchical decision-making structure hidden in the optimization landscape. In this paper, we adopt a game-theoretical viewpoint and model the policy learning diagram as a two-player general-sum game with a leader-follower structure. We propose a novel stochastic gradient-based learning algorithm: StackelbergLearner, in which the leader player updates according to the total derivative of its objective instead of the usual individual gradient, and the follower player makes individual updates and ensures transition-consistent pessimistic reasoning. The derived learning dynamic naturally lends StackelbergLearner to a game-theoretic interpretation and provides a convergence guarantee to differentiable Stackelberg equilibria. From a theoretical standpoint, we provide instance-dependent regret bounds with general function approximation, which shows that our algorithm can learn a best-effort policy that is able to compete against any comparator policy that is covered by batch data. Notably, our theoretical regret guarantees only require realizability without any data coverage and strong function approximation conditions, e.g., Bellman closedness, which is in contrast to prior works lacking such guarantees. Through comprehensive experiments, we find that our algorithm consistently performs as well or better as compared to state-of-the-art methods in batch RL benchmark and real-world datasets.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Individualized Treatment Rule for Combination Treatments Under Budget Constraints

The individualized treatment rule (ITR), which recommends an optimal treatment based on individual characteristics, has drawn considerable interest from many areas such as precision medicine, personalized education, and personalized marketing. Existing ITR estimation methods mainly adopt one of two or more treatments. However, a combination of multiple treatments could be more powerful in various areas. In this paper, we propose a novel Double Encoder Model (DEM) to estimate the individualized treatment rule for combination treatments. The proposed double encoder model is a nonparametric model which not only flexibly incorporates complex treatment effects and interaction effects among treatments, but also improves estimation efficiency via the parameter-sharing feature. In addition, we tailor the estimated ITR to budget constraints through a multi-choice knapsack formulation, which enhances our proposed method under restricted-resource scenarios. In theory, we provide the value reduction bound with or without budget constraints, and an improved convergence rate with respect to the number of treatments under the DEM. Our simulation studies show that the proposed method outperforms the existing ITR estimation in various settings. We also demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method in PDX data that recommends optimal combination treatments to shrink the tumor size of the colorectal cancer.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

De-confounding causal inference using latent multiple-mediator pathways

Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in the real world. We develop a mediation analysis framework inferring the latent confounder for debiasing both direct and indirect causal effects. Specifically, we introduce generalized structural equation modeling that incorporates structured latent factors to improve the goodness-of-fit of the model to observed data, and deconfound the mediators and outcome simultaneously. One major advantage of the proposed framework is that it utilizes the causal pathway structure from cause to outcome via multiple mediators to debias the causal effect without requiring external information on latent confounders. In addition, the proposed framework is flexible in terms of integrating powerful nonparametric prediction algorithms while retaining interpretable mediation effects. In theory, we establish the identification of both causal and mediation effects based on the proposed deconfounding method. Numerical experiments on both simulation settings and a normative aging study indicate that the proposed approach reduces the estimation bias of both causal and mediation effects.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Crowdsourcing Utilizing Subgroup Structure of Latent Factor Modeling

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an alternative solution for collecting large scale labels. However, the majority of recruited workers are not domain experts, so their contributed labels could be noisy. In this paper, we propose a two-stage model to predict the true labels for multicategory classification tasks in crowdsourcing. In the first stage, we fit the observed labels with a latent factor model and incorporate subgroup structures for both tasks and workers through a multi-centroid grouping penalty. Group-specific rotations are introduced to align workers with different task categories to solve multicategory crowdsourcing tasks. In the second stage, we propose a concordance-based approach to identify high-quality worker subgroups who are relied upon to assign labels to tasks. In theory, we show the estimation consistency of the latent factors and the prediction consistency of the proposed method. The simulation studies show that the proposed method outperforms the existing competitive methods, assuming the subgroup structures within tasks and workers. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed method to real world problems and show its superiority.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Weak signal identification and inference in penalized likelihood models for categorical responses

Penalized likelihood models are widely used to simultaneously select variables and estimate model parameters. However, the existence of weak signals can lead to inaccurate variable selection, biased parameter estimation, and invalid inference. Thus, identifying weak signals accurately and making valid inferences are crucial in penalized likelihood models. We develop a unified approach to identify weak signals and make inferences in penalized likelihood models, including the special case when the responses are categorical. To identify weak signals, we use the estimated selection probability of each covariate as a measure of the signal strength and formulate a signal identification criterion. To construct confidence intervals, we propose a two-step inference procedure. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed procedure outperforms several existing methods. We illustrate the proposed method by applying it to the Practice Fusion diabetes data set.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Estimating Optimal Infinite Horizon Dynamic Treatment Regimes via pT-Learning

Recent advances in mobile health (mHealth) technology provide an effective way to monitor individuals' health statuses and deliver just-in-time personalized interventions. However, the practical use of mHealth technology raises unique challenges to existing methodologies on learning an optimal dynamic treatment regime. Many mHealth applications involve decision-making with large numbers of intervention options and under an infinite time horizon setting where the number of decision stages diverges to infinity. In addition, temporary medication shortages may cause optimal treatments to be unavailable, while it is unclear what alternatives can be used. To address these challenges, we propose a Proximal Temporal consistency Learning (pT-Learning) framework to estimate an optimal regime that is adaptively adjusted between deterministic and stochastic sparse policy models. The resulting minimax estimator avoids the double sampling issue in the existing algorithms. It can be further simplified and can easily incorporate off-policy data without mismatched distribution corrections. We study theoretical properties of the sparse policy and establish finite-sample bounds on the excess risk and performance error. The proposed method is provided in our proximalDTR package and is evaluated through extensive simulation studies and the OhioT1DM mHealth dataset.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Semi-standard partial covariance variable selection when irrepresentable conditions fail

Traditional variable selection methods could fail to be sign consistent when irrepresentable conditions are violated. This is especially critical in high-dimensional settings when the number of predictors exceeds the sample size. In this paper, we propose a new semi-standard partial covariance (SPAC) approach which is capable of reducing correlation effects from other covariates while fully capturing the magnitude of coefficients. The proposed SPAC is effective in choosing covariates which have direct effects on the response variable, while eliminating the predictors which are not directly associated with the response but are highly correlated with the relevant predictors. We show that the proposed SPAC method with the Lasso penalty or the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty possesses strong sign consistency in high-dimensional settings. Numerical studies and a post-traumatic stress disorder data application also confirm that the proposed method outperforms the existing Lasso, adaptive Lasso, SCAD, Peter-Clark-simple algorithm, and factor-adjusted regularized model selection methods when the irrepresentable conditions fail.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Query-augmented Active Metric Learning

In this paper we propose an active metric learning method for clustering with pairwise constraints. The proposed method actively queries the label of informative instance pairs, while estimating underlying metrics by incorporating unlabeled instance pairs, which leads to a more accurate and efficient clustering process. In particular, we augment the queried constraints by generating more pairwise labels to provide additional information in learning a metric to enhance clustering performance. Furthermore, we increase the robustness of metric learning by updating the learned metric sequentially and penalizing the irrelevant features adaptively. In addition, we propose a novel active query strategy that evaluates the information gain of instance pairs more accurately by incorporating the neighborhood structure, which improves clustering efficiency without extra labeling cost. In theory, we provide a tighter error bound of the proposed metric learning method utilizing augmented queries compared with methods using existing constraints only. Furthermore, we also investigate the improvement using the active query strategy instead of random selection. Numerical studies on simulation settings and real datasets indicate that the proposed method is especially advantageous when the signal-to-noise ratio between significant features and irrelevant features is low.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

High-order joint embedding for multi-level link prediction

Link prediction infers potential links from observed networks, and is one of the essential problems in network analyses. In contrast to traditional graph representation modeling which only predicts two-way pairwise relations, we propose a novel tensor-based joint network embedding approach on simultaneously encoding pairwise links and hyperlinks onto a latent space, which captures the dependency between pairwise and multi-way links in inferring potential unobserved hyperlinks. The major advantage of the proposed embedding procedure is that it incorporates both the pairwise relationships and subgroup-wise structure among nodes to capture richer network information. In addition, the proposed method introduces a hierarchical dependency among links to infer potential hyperlinks, and leads to better link prediction. In theory we establish the estimation consistency for the proposed embedding approach, and provide a faster convergence rate compared to link prediction utilizing pairwise links or hyperlinks only. Numerical studies on both simulation settings and Facebook ego-networks indicate that the proposed method improves both hyperlink and pairwise link prediction accuracy compared to existing link prediction algorithms.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Dermoscopic Image Classification with Neural Style Transfer

Skin cancer, the most commonly found human malignancy, is primarily diagnosed visually via dermoscopic analysis, biopsy, and histopathological examination. However, unlike other types of cancer, automated image classification of skin lesions is deemed more challenging due to the irregularity and variability in the lesions' appearances. In this work, we propose an adaptation of the Neural Style Transfer (NST) as a novel image pre-processing step for skin lesion classification problems. We represent each dermoscopic image as the style image and transfer the style of the lesion onto a homogeneous content image. This transfers the main variability of each lesion onto the same localized region, which allows us to integrate the generated images together and extract latent, low-rank style features via tensor decomposition. We train and cross-validate our model on a dermoscopic data set collected and preprocessed from the International Skin Imaging Collaboration (ISIC) database. We show that the classification performance based on the extracted tensor features using the style-transferred images significantly outperforms that of the raw images by more than 10%, and is also competitive with well-studied, pre-trained CNN models through transfer learning. Additionally, the tensor decomposition further identifies latent style clusters, which may provide clinical interpretation and insights.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2020

Improving Sales Forecasting Accuracy: A Tensor Factorization Approach with Demand Awareness

Due to accessible big data collections from consumers, products, and stores, advanced sales forecasting capabilities have drawn great attention from many companies especially in the retail business because of its importance in decision making. Improvement of the forecasting accuracy, even by a small percentage, may have a substantial impact on companies' production and financial planning, marketing strategies, inventory controls, supply chain management, and eventually stock prices. Specifically, our research goal is to forecast the sales of each product in each store in the near future. Motivated by tensor factorization methodologies for personalized context-aware recommender systems, we propose a novel approach called the Advanced Temporal Latent-factor Approach to Sales forecasting (ATLAS), which achieves accurate and individualized prediction for sales by building a single tensor-factorization model across multiple stores and products. Our contribution is a combination of: tensor framework (to leverage information across stores and products), a new regularization function (to incorporate demand dynamics), and extrapolation of tensor into future time periods using state-of-the-art statistical (seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving-average models) and machine-learning (recurrent neural networks) models. The advantages of ATLAS are demonstrated on eight product category datasets collected by the Information Resource, Inc., where a total of 165 million weekly sales transactions from more than 1,500 grocery stores over 15,560 products are analyzed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Integrating multi-source block-wise missing data in model selection

For multi-source data, blocks of variable information from certain sources are likely missing. Existing methods for handling missing data do not take structures of block-wise missing data into consideration. In this paper, we propose a Multiple Block-wise Imputation (MBI) approach, which incorporates imputations based on both complete and incomplete observations. Specifically, for a given missing pattern group, the imputations in MBI incorporate more samples from groups with fewer observed variables in addition to the group with complete observations. We propose to construct estimating equations based on all available information, and optimally integrate informative estimating functions to achieve efficient estimators. We show that the proposed method has estimation and model selection consistency under both fixed-dimensional and high-dimensional settings. Moreover, the proposed estimator is asymptotically more efficient than the estimator based on a single imputation from complete observations only. In addition, the proposed method is not restricted to missing completely at random. Numerical studies and ADNI data application confirm that the proposed method outperforms existing variable selection methods under various missing mechanisms.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Dynamic Tensor Recommender Systems

Recommender systems have been extensively used by the entertainment industry, business marketing and the biomedical industry. In addition to its capacity of providing preference-based recommendations as an unsupervised learning methodology, it has been also proven useful in sales forecasting, product introduction and other production related businesses. Since some consumers and companies need a recommendation or prediction for future budget, labor and supply chain coordination, dynamic recommender systems for precise forecasting have become extremely necessary. In this article, we propose a new recommendation method, namely the dynamic tensor recommender system (DTRS), which aims particularly at forecasting future recommendation. The proposed method utilizes a tensor-valued function of time to integrate time and contextual information, and creates a time-varying coefficient model for temporal tensor factorization through a polynomial spline approximation. Major advantages of the proposed method include competitive future recommendation predictions and effective prediction interval estimations. In theory, we establish the convergence rate of the proposed tensor factorization and asymptotic normality of the spline coefficient estimator. The proposed method is applied to simulations and IRI marketing data. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of future time forecasting.

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