arXiv subjects

Annie Ulichney

Publications and source records attributed to Annie Ulichney.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond the Training Distribution: Evaluating Predictions Under Distribution Shift and Selection Bias

Understanding how a prediction model will perform in a new environment before deployment is essential to preventing harm when algorithms inform decision-making. Two common sources of model performance degradation are (i) covariate shift, where the target covariate distribution differs from the source, and (ii) selective labels, where the observability of outcomes depends on historical decisions. We study pre-deployment model evaluation under the joint presence of covariate shift and labeling of outcomes selectively based on observed features. In particular, we present a double machine learning procedure for estimating the target risk of an arbitrary black-box prediction model under a general loss function. We show identification of this estimand under standard assumptions and derive a bias-corrected estimator based on the influence function of the target risk. Finally, we evaluate our estimator through experiments using the eICU electronic health records database, showing that it tracks the true target risk more accurately than methods that address either selective labels or covariate shift alone, as well as baselines that combine standard plug-in approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

The Statistical Fairness-Accuracy Frontier

We study fairness-accuracy tradeoffs when a single predictive model must serve multiple demographic groups. A useful tool for understanding this tradeoff is the fairness-accuracy (FA) Pareto frontier, which characterizes the set of models that cannot be improved in either fairness or accuracy without worsening the other. While characterizing the FA frontier requires full knowledge of the data distribution, we focus on the finite-sample regime, quantifying how well a designer can approximate any point on the frontier from limited data and bounding the worst-case gap. In particular, we derive worst-case-optimal estimators that depend on the designer's knowledge of the covariate distribution. For each estimator, we characterize how finite-sample effects asymmetrically impact each group's welfare and identify optimal sample allocation strategies. Finally, we provide uniform finite-sample bounds for the entire FA frontier, yielding confidence bands that quantify the reliability of welfare comparisons across alternative fairness-accuracy tradeoffs.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Revisiting mean estimation over $\ell_p$ balls: Is the MLE optimal?

We revisit the problem of mean estimation in the Gaussian sequence model with $\ell_p$ constraints for $p \in [0, \infty]$. We demonstrate two phenomena for the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), which depend on the noise level, the radius of the (quasi)norm constraint, the dimension, and the norm index $p$. First, if $p$ lies between $0$ and $1 + Θ(\tfrac{1}{\log d})$, inclusive, or if it is greater than or equal to $2$, the MLE is minimax rate-optimal for all noise levels and all constraint radii. On the other hand, for the remaining norm indices -- namely, if $p$ lies between $1 + Θ(\tfrac{1}{\log d})$ and $2$ -- here is a more striking behavior: the MLE is minimax rate-suboptimal, despite its nonlinearity in the observations, for essentially all noise levels and constraint radii for which nonlinear estimates are necessary for minimax-optimal estimation. Our results imply that when given $n$ independent and identically distributed Gaussian samples, the MLE can be suboptimal by a polynomial factor in the sample size. Our lower bounds are constructive: whenever the MLE is rate-suboptimal, we provide explicit instances on which the MLE provably incurs suboptimal risk. Finally, in the non-convex case -- namely when $p < 1$ -- we develop sharp local Gaussian width bounds, which may be of independent interest.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Fair Allocation in Dynamic Mechanism Design

We consider a dynamic mechanism design problem where an auctioneer sells an indivisible good to groups of buyers in every round, for a total of $T$ rounds. The auctioneer aims to maximize their discounted overall revenue while adhering to a fairness constraint that guarantees a minimum average allocation for each group. We begin by studying the static case ($T=1$) and establish that the optimal mechanism involves two types of subsidization: one that increases the overall probability of allocation to all buyers, and another that favors the groups which otherwise have a lower probability of winning the item. We then extend our results to the dynamic case by characterizing a set of recursive functions that determine the optimal allocation and payments in each round. Notably, our results establish that in the dynamic case, the seller, on the one hand, commits to a participation bonus to incentivize truth-telling, and on the other hand, charges an entry fee for every round. Moreover, the optimal allocation once more involves subsidization, which its extent depends on the difference in future utilities for both the seller and buyers when allocating the item to one group versus the others. Finally, we present an approximation scheme to solve the recursive equations and determine an approximately optimal and fair allocation efficiently.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

Automatic Infectious Disease Classification Analysis with Concept Discovery

Automatic infectious disease classification from images can facilitate needed medical diagnoses. Such an approach can identify diseases, like tuberculosis, which remain under-diagnosed due to resource constraints and also novel and emerging diseases, like monkeypox, which clinicians have little experience or acumen in diagnosing. Avoiding missed or delayed diagnoses would prevent further transmission and improve clinical outcomes. In order to understand and trust neural network predictions, analysis of learned representations is necessary. In this work, we argue that automatic discovery of concepts, i.e., human interpretable attributes, allows for a deep understanding of learned information in medical image analysis tasks, generalizing beyond the training labels or protocols. We provide an overview of existing concept discovery approaches in medical image and computer vision communities, and evaluate representative methods on tuberculosis (TB) prediction and monkeypox prediction tasks. Finally, we propose NMFx, a general NMF formulation of interpretability by concept discovery that works in a unified way in unsupervised, weakly supervised, and supervised scenarios.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Population-Based Hierarchical Non-negative Matrix Factorization for Survey Data

Motivated by the problem of identifying potential hierarchical population structure on modern survey data containing a wide range of complex data types, we introduce population-based hierarchical non-negative matrix factorization (PHNMF). PHNMF is a variant of hierarchical non-negative matrix factorization based on feature similarity. As such, it enables an automatic and interpretable approach for identifying and understanding hierarchical structure in a data matrix constructed from a wide range of data types. Our numerical experiments on synthetic and real survey data demonstrate that PHNMF can recover latent hierarchical population structure in complex data with high accuracy. Moreover, the recovered subpopulation structure is meaningful and can be useful for improving downstream inference.

stat.CO↗