arXiv subjects

Anouar Meynaoui

Publications and source records attributed to Anouar Meynaoui.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

New statistical methodology for second level global sensitivity analysis

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of numerical simulators aims at studying the global impact of the input uncertainties on the output. To perform the GSA, statistical tools based on inputs/output dependence measures are commonly used. We focus here on dependence measures based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces: the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion denoted HSIC. Sometimes, the probability distributions modeling the uncertainty of inputs may be themselves uncertain and it is important to quantify the global impact of this uncertainty on GSA results. We call it here the second-level global sensitivity analysis (GSA2). However, GSA2, when performed with a double Monte Carlo loop, requires a large number of model evaluations which is intractable with CPU time expensive simulators. To cope with this limitation, we propose a new statistical methodology based on a single Monte Carlo loop with a limited calculation budget. Firstly, we build a unique sample of inputs from a well chosen probability distribution and the associated code outputs are computed. From this inputs/output sample, we perform GSA for various assumed probability distributions of inputs by using weighted HSIC measures estimators. Statistical properties of these weighted esti-mators are demonstrated. Finally, we define 2 nd-level HSIC-based measures between the probability distributions of inputs and GSA results, which constitute GSA2 indices. The efficiency of our GSA2 methodology is illustrated on an analytical example, thereby comparing several technical options. Finally, an application to a test case simulating a severe accidental scenario on nuclear reactor is provided.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Second-level global sensitivity analysis of numerical simulators with application to an accident scenario in a sodium-cooled fast reactor

Numerical simulators are widely used to model physical phenomena and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) aims at studying the global impact of the input uncertainties on the simulator output. To perform GSA, statistical tools based on inputs/output dependence measures are commonly used. We focus here on the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). Sometimes, the probability distributions modeling the uncertainty of inputs may be themselves uncertain and it is important to quantify their impact on GSA results. We call it here the second-level global sensitivity analysis (GSA2). However, GSA2, when performed with a Monte Carlo double-loop, requires a large number of model evaluations, which is intractable with CPU time expensive simulators. To cope with this limitation, we propose a new statistical methodology based on a Monte Carlo single-loop with a limited calculation budget. First, we build a unique sample of inputs and simulator outputs, from a well-chosen probability distribution of inputs. From this sample, we perform GSA for various assumed probability distributions of inputs by using weighted HSIC measures estimators. Statistical properties of these weighted estimators are demonstrated. Subsequently, we define 2 nd-level HSICbased measures between the distributions of inputs and GSA results, which constitute GSA2 indices. The efficiency of our GSA2 methodology is illustrated on an analytical example, thereby comparing several technical options. Finally, an application to a test case simulating a severe accidental scenario on nuclear reactor is provided.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A Kernel Two-Sample Test Invariant under Group Action with Applications to Functional Data

We introduce a kernel-based two-sample test for comparing probability distributions up to group actions. Our construction yields invariant kernels for locally compact $σ$-compact groups and extends classical Haar-based approaches beyond the compact setting. The resulting invariant Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) test is developed in a general framework where the sample space is assumed to be Polish. Under natural conditions, the invariant kernel induces a characteristic kernel on the quotient space, ensuring consistency of the associated MMD test. The method is well suited to functional data, where invariances such as temporal shifts arise naturally, and its effectiveness is illustrated through simulation studies.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Identifiability of total effects from abstractions of time series causal graphs

We study the problem of identifiability of the total effect of an intervention from observational time series in the situation, common in practice, where one only has access to abstractions of the true causal graph. We consider here two abstractions: the extended summary causal graph, which conflates all lagged causal relations but distinguishes between lagged and instantaneous relations, and the summary causal graph which does not give any indication about the lag between causal relations. We show that the total effect is always identifiable in extended summary causal graphs and provide sufficient conditions for identifiability in summary causal graphs. We furthermore provide adjustment sets allowing to estimate the total effect whenever it is identifiable.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Adaptive nonparametric estimation in the functional linear model with functional output

In this paper, we consider a functional linear regression model, where both the covariate and the response variable are functional random variables. We address the problem of optimal nonparametric estimation of the conditional expectation operator in this model. A collection of projection estimators over finite dimensional subspaces is first introduce. We provide a non-asymptotic bias-variance decomposition for the Mean Square Prediction error in the case where these subspaces are generated by the (empirical) PCA functional basis. The automatic trade-off is realized thanks to a model selection device which selects the best projection dimensions: the penalized contrast estimator satisfies an oracle-type inequality and is thus optimal in an adaptive point of view. These upper-bounds allow us to derive convergence rates over ellipsoidal smoothness spaces. The rates are shown to be optimal in the minimax sense: they match with a lower bound of the minimax risk, which is also proved. Finally, we conduct a numerical study, over simulated data and over two real-data sets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Adaptive test of independence based on HSIC measures

Dependence measures based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, also known as Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion and denoted HSIC, are widely used to statistically decide whether or not two random vectors are dependent. Recently, non-parametric HSIC-based statistical tests of independence have been performed. However, these tests lead to the question of the choice of the kernels associated to the HSIC. In particular, there is as yet no method to objectively select specific kernels with theoretical guarantees in terms of first and second kind errors. One of the main contributions of this work is to develop a new HSIC-based aggregated procedure which avoids such a kernel choice, and to provide theoretical guarantees for this procedure. To achieve this, we first introduce non-asymptotic single tests based on Gaussian kernels with a given bandwidth, which are of prescribed level $α\in (0,1)$. From a theoretical point of view, we upper-bound their uniform separation rate of testing over Sobolev and Nikol'skii balls. Then, we aggregate several single tests, and obtain similar upper-bounds for the uniform separation rate of the aggregated procedure over the same regularity spaces. Another main contribution is that we provide a lower-bound for the non-asymptotic minimax separation rate of testing over Sobolev balls, and deduce that the aggregated procedure is adaptive in the minimax sense over such regularity spaces. Finally, from a practical point of view, we perform numerical studies in order to assess the efficiency of our aggregated procedure and compare it to existing independence tests in the literature.

math.ST↗