arXiv subjects

Anqi Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Anqi Liu.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Do News and Social Media Tell the Same Story? Constructing and Comparing Sentiment Spillover Networks

Investor sentiment reflects the collective attitude of investors towards the asset, whether positive, negative or neutral. Market information, such as news and relevant social media posts, plays a significant role in shaping investor sentiment, which influences investment decisions accordingly. The sentiment for one single company may spill over to other relevant companies which are in the same industry. The information spillover network pattern between news and social media may also differ, as they are two different media sources. In this study, we introduce a network-based transfer entropy method to measure and compare the information transmission of news and social media sentiment across the technology companies. We examine whether and to what extent sentiment information from one company can transfer to other companies, and how different the spillover effect is for news and social media. The result signifies a stronger intensity of news information flow among the tech companies after COVID-19. We also highlight the companies which act as information hubs in the sentiment network. Furthermore, we identify the companies which lead the strongest information flow chain. Overall, this study provides a novel perspective in modelling sentiment spillover under two different media sources, and we find that news and social media show a different information transmission pattern during the studied period.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2026

Always Tell Me The Odds: Fine-grained Conditional Probability Estimation

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Minimax Generalized Cross-Entropy

Loss functions play a central role in supervised classification. Cross-entropy (CE) is widely used, whereas the mean absolute error (MAE) loss can offer robustness but is difficult to optimize. Interpolating between the CE and MAE losses, generalized cross-entropy (GCE) has recently been introduced to provide a trade-off between optimization difficulty and robustness. Existing formulations of GCE result in a non-convex optimization over classification margins that is prone to underfitting, leading to poor performances with complex datasets. In this paper, we propose a minimax formulation of generalized cross-entropy (MGCE) that results in a convex optimization over classification margins. Moreover, we show that MGCEs can provide an upper bound on the classification error. The proposed bilevel convex optimization can be efficiently implemented using stochastic gradient computed via implicit differentiation. Using benchmark datasets, we show that MGCE achieves strong accuracy, faster convergence, and better calibration, especially in the presence of label noise.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

From Time Series to State: Situation-Aware Modeling for Air Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate air traffic prediction in the terminal airspace (TA) is pivotal for proactive air traffic management (ATM). However, existing data-driven approaches predominantly rely on time series-based forecasting paradigms, which inherently overlook critical aircraft state information, such as real-time kinematics and proximity to airspace boundaries. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{AeroSense}, a direct state-to-flow modeling framework for air traffic prediction. Unlike classical time series-based methods that first aggregate aircraft trajectories into macroscopic flow sequences before modeling, AeroSense explicitly represents the real-time airspace situation as \textit{a dynamic set of aircraft states}, enabling the direct processing of a variable number of aircraft instead of time series as inputs. Specifically, we introduce a situation-aware state representation that enables AeroSense to sense the instantaneous terminal airspace situation directly from microscopic aircraft states. Furthermore, we design a model architecture that incorporates masked self-attention to capture inter-aircraft interactions, together with two decoupled prediction heads to model heterogeneous flow dynamics across two key functional areas of the TA. Extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world airport dataset demonstrate that AeroSense consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, validating that direct modeling of microscopic aircraft states yields substantially higher predictive fidelity than time series-based baselines. Moreover, the proposed framework exhibits superior robustness during peak traffic periods, achieves Pareto-optimal performance under dayparting multi-object evaluation, and provides meaningful interpretability through attention-based visualizations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GenoBERT: A Language Model for Accurate Genotype Imputation

Genotype imputation enables dense variant coverage for genome-wide association and risk-prediction studies, yet conventional reference-panel methods remain limited by ancestry bias and reduced rare-variant accuracy. We present Genotype Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (GenoBERT), a transformer-based, reference-free framework that tokenizes phased genotypes and uses a self-attention mechanism to capture both short- and long-range linkage disequilibrium (LD) dependencies. Benchmarking on two independent datasets including the Louisiana Osteoporosis Study (LOS) and the 1000 Genomes Project (1KGP) across ancestry groups and multiple genotype missingness levels (5-50%) shows that GenoBERT achieves the highest overall accuracy compared to four baseline methods (Beagle5.4, SCDA, BiU-Net, and STICI). At practical sparsity levels (up to 25% missing), GenoBERT attains high overall imputation accuracy ($r^2 approx 0.98$) across datasets, and maintains robust performance ($r^2 > 0.90$) even at 50% missingness. Experimental results across different ancestries confirm consistent gains across datasets, with resilience to small sample sizes and weak LD. A 128-SNP (single-nucleotide polymorphism) context window (approximately 100 Kb) is validated through LD-decay analyses as sufficient to capture local correlation structures. By eliminating reference-panel dependence while preserving high accuracy, GenoBERT provides a scalable and robust solution for genotype imputation and a foundation for downstream genomic modeling.

q-bio.GN↗

arXiv2026

Q-Learning with Shift-Aware Upper Confidence Bound in Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning

We study the Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (RL) under distribution shifts in both finite-horizon episodic and infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In the finite-horizon case, the transition functions may suddenly change at a particular episode. In the infinite-horizon setting, such changes can occur at an arbitrary time step during the agent's interaction with the environment. While the Q-learning Upper Confidence Bound algorithm (QUCB) can discover a proper policy during learning, due to the distribution shifts, this policy can exploit sub-optimal rewards after the shift happens. To address this issue, we propose Density-QUCB (DQUCB), a shift-aware Q-learning UCB algorithm, which uses a transition density function to detect distribution shifts, then leverages its likelihood to enhance the uncertainty estimation quality of Q-learning UCB, resulting in a balance between exploration and exploitation. Theoretically, we prove that our oracle DQUCB achieves a better regret guarantee than QUCB. Empirically, our DQUCB enjoys the computational efficiency of model-free RL and outperforms QUCB baselines by having a lower regret across RL tasks, as well as a COVID-19 patient hospital allocation task using a Deep-Q-learning architecture.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MOBODY: Model Based Off-Dynamics Offline Reinforcement Learning

We study off-dynamics offline reinforcement learning, where the goal is to learn a policy from offline source and limited target datasets with mismatched dynamics. Existing methods either penalize the reward or discard source transitions occurring in parts of the transition space with high dynamics shift. As a result, they optimize the policy using data from low-shift regions, limiting exploration of high-reward states in the target domain that do not fall within these regions. Consequently, such methods often fail when the dynamics shift is significant or the optimal trajectories lie outside the low-shift regions. To overcome this limitation, we propose MOBODY, a Model-Based Off-Dynamics Offline RL algorithm that optimizes a policy using learned target dynamics transitions to explore the target domain, rather than only being trained with the low dynamics-shift transitions. For the dynamics learning, built on the observation that achieving the same next state requires taking different actions in different domains, MOBODY employs separate action encoders for each domain to encode different actions to the shared latent space while sharing a unified representation of states and a common transition function. We further introduce a target Q-weighted behavior cloning loss in policy optimization to avoid out-of-distribution actions, which push the policy toward actions with high target-domain Q-values, rather than high source domain Q-values or uniformly imitating all actions in the offline dataset. We evaluate MOBODY on a wide range of MuJoCo and Adroit benchmarks, demonstrating that it outperforms state-of-the-art off-dynamics RL baselines as well as policy learning methods based on different dynamics learning baselines, with especially pronounced improvements in challenging scenarios where existing methods struggle.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

IA2: Alignment with ICL Activations Improves Supervised Fine-Tuning

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is used to specialize model behavior by training weights to produce intended target responses for queries. In contrast, In-Context Learning (ICL) adapts models during inference with instructions or demonstrations in the prompt. ICL can offer better generalizability and more calibrated responses compared to SFT in data scarce settings, at the cost of more inference compute. In this work, we ask the question: Can ICL's internal computations be used to improve the qualities of SFT? We first show that ICL and SFT produce distinct activation patterns, indicating that the two methods achieve adaptation through different functional mechanisms. Motivated by this observation and to use ICL's rich functionality, we introduce ICL Activation Alignment (IA2), a self-distillation technique which aims to replicate ICL's activation patterns in SFT models and incentivizes ICL-like internal reasoning. Performing IA2 as a priming step before SFT significantly improves the accuracy and calibration of model outputs, as shown by our extensive empirical results on 12 popular benchmarks and two model families. This finding is not only practically useful, but also offers a conceptual window into the inner mechanics of model adaptation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Genomic Next-Token Predictors are In-Context Learners

In-context learning (ICL) -- the capacity of a model to infer and apply abstract patterns from examples provided within its input -- has been extensively studied in large language models trained for next-token prediction on human text. In fact, prior work often attributes this emergent behavior to distinctive statistical properties in human language. This raises a fundamental question: can ICL arise organically in other sequence domains purely through large-scale predictive training? To explore this, we turn to genomic sequences, an alternative symbolic domain rich in statistical structure. Specifically, we study the Evo2 genomic model, trained predominantly on next-nucleotide (A/T/C/G) prediction, at a scale comparable to mid-sized LLMs. We develop a controlled experimental framework comprising symbolic reasoning tasks instantiated in both linguistic and genomic forms, enabling direct comparison of ICL across genomic and linguistic models. Our results show that genomic models, like their linguistic counterparts, exhibit log-linear gains in pattern induction as the number of in-context demonstrations increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evidence of organically emergent ICL in genomic sequences, supporting the hypothesis that ICL arises as a consequence of large-scale predictive modeling over rich data. These findings extend emergent meta-learning beyond language, pointing toward a unified, modality-agnostic view of in-context learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CorrectionPlanner: Self-Correction Planner with Reinforcement Learning in Autonomous Driving

Autonomous driving requires safe planning, but most learning-based planners lack explicit self-correction ability: once an unsafe action is proposed, there is no mechanism to correct it. Thus, we propose CorrectionPlanner, an autoregressive planner with self-correction that models planning as motion-token generation within a propose, evaluate, and correct loop. At each planning step, the policy proposes an action, namely a motion token, and a learned collision critic predicts whether it will induce a collision within a short horizon. If the critic predicts a collision, we retain the sequence of historical unsafe motion tokens as a self-correction trace, generate the next motion token conditioned on it, and repeat this process until a safe motion token is proposed or the safety criterion is met. This self-correction trace, consisting of all unsafe motion tokens, represents the planner's correction process in motion-token space, analogous to a reasoning trace in language models. We train the planner with imitation learning followed by model-based reinforcement learning using rollouts from a pretrained world model that realistically models agents' reactive behaviors. Closed-loop evaluations show that CorrectionPlanner reduces collision rate by over 20% on Waymax and achieves state-of-the-art planning scores on nuPlan.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

ADMM-based Bilevel Descent Aggregation Algorithm for Sparse Hyperparameter Selection

It is widely acknowledged that hyperparameter selection plays a critical role in the effectiveness of sparse optimization problems. The bilevel optimization provides a robust framework for addressing this issue, but these existing methods depend heavily on the lower-level singleton (LLS) assumption, which greatly limits their practical applicabilities. To tackle this technical challenge, this paper focus on a particular type of nonsmooth convex sparse optimization problem and presents a new bilevel optimization framework. This framework effectively integrates the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with a bilevel descent aggregation (BDA) algorithm. Specifically, it employs ADMM to efficiently address the lower-level problem and uses BDA to explore the hyperparameter space, thereby integrating both the upper and lower-level problems. It is important to emphasize that a key contribution of this paper lies in the presentation of a novel convergence analysis. The analysis illustrates that the proposed ADMM-BDA algorithm achieves global convergence under significantly relaxed conditions, thereby departing from the LLS assumption that are often required in the literature. We conduct a series of numerical experiments utilizing synthetic and real-world data, and do performance comparisions against some state-of-the-art algorithms. The results indicates that ADMM-BDA exhibits superior effectiveness and robustness for solving bilevel programming problems, especially when the lower-level problem is an elastic-net penalized statistics problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Reframing Conversational Design in HRI: Deliberate Design with AI Scaffolds

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled conversational robots to move beyond constrained dialogue toward free-form interaction. However, without context-specific adaptation, generic LLM outputs can be ineffective or inappropriate. This adaptation is often attempted through prompt engineering, which is non-intuitive and tedious. Moreover, predominant design practice in HRI relies on impression-based, trial-and-error refinement without structured methods or tools, making the process inefficient and inconsistent. To address this, we present the AI-Aided Conversation Engine (ACE), a system that supports the deliberate design of human-robot conversations. ACE contributes three key innovations: 1) an LLM-powered voice agent that scaffolds initial prompt creation to overcome the "blank page problem," 2) an annotation interface that enables the collection of granular and grounded feedback on conversational transcripts, and 3) using LLMs to translate user feedback into prompt refinements. We evaluated ACE through two user studies, examining both designs' experience and end users' interactions with robots designed using ACE. Results show that ACE facilitates the creation of robot behavior prompts with greater clarity and specificity, and that the prompts generated with ACE lead to higher-quality human-robot conversational interactions.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2026

Group-Sensitive Offline Contextual Bandits

Offline contextual bandits allow one to learn policies from historical/offline data without requiring online interaction. However, offline policy optimization that maximizes overall expected rewards can unintentionally amplify the reward disparities across groups. As a result, some groups might benefit more than others from the learned policy, raising concerns about fairness, especially when the resources are limited. In this paper, we study a group-sensitive fairness constraint in offline contextual bandits, reducing group-wise reward disparities that may arise during policy learning. We tackle the following common-parity requirements: the reward disparity is constrained within some user-defined threshold or the reward disparity should be minimized during policy optimization. We propose a constrained offline policy optimization framework by introducing group-wise reward disparity constraints into an off-policy gradient-based optimization procedure. To improve the estimation of the group-wise reward disparity during training, we employ a doubly robust estimator and further provide a convergence guarantee for policy optimization. Empirical results in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method effectively reduces reward disparities while maintaining competitive overall performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Improving Coverage in Combined Prediction Sets with Weighted p-values

Conformal prediction quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by augmenting point predictions with valid prediction sets. For complex scenarios involving multiple trials, models, or data sources, conformal prediction sets can be aggregated to create a prediction set that captures the overall uncertainty, often improving precision. However, aggregating multiple prediction sets with individual $1-α$ coverage inevitably weakens the overall guarantee, typically resulting in $1-2α$ worst-case coverage. In this work, we propose a framework for the weighted aggregation of prediction sets, where weights are assigned to each prediction set based on their contribution. Our framework offers flexible control over how the sets are aggregated, achieving tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between the $1-2α$ guarantee of the combined models and the $1-α$ guarantee of an individual model depending on the distribution of weights. Importantly, our framework generalizes to data-dependent weights, as we derive a procedure for weighted aggregation that maintains finite-sample validity even when the weights depend on the data. This extension makes our framework broadly applicable to settings where weights are learned, such as mixture-of-experts (MoE), and we demonstrate through experiments in the MoE setting that our methods achieve adaptive coverage.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

StereoDETR: Stereo-based Transformer for 3D Object Detection

Compared to monocular 3D object detection, stereo-based 3D methods offer significantly higher accuracy but still suffer from high computational overhead and latency. The state-of-the-art stereo 3D detection method achieves twice the accuracy of monocular approaches, yet its inference speed is only half as fast. In this paper, we propose StereoDETR, an efficient stereo 3D object detection framework based on DETR. StereoDETR consists of two branches: a monocular DETR branch and a stereo branch. The DETR branch is built upon 2D DETR with additional channels for predicting object scale, orientation, and sampling points. The stereo branch leverages low-cost multi-scale disparity features to predict object-level depth maps. These two branches are coupled solely through a differentiable depth sampling strategy. To handle occlusion, we introduce a constrained supervision strategy for sampling points without requiring extra annotations. StereoDETR achieves real-time inference and is the first stereo-based method to surpass monocular approaches in speed. It also achieves competitive accuracy on the public KITTI benchmark, setting new state-of-the-art results on pedestrian and cyclist subsets. The code is available at https://github.com/shiyi-mu/StereoDETR-OPEN.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

OIDA-QA: A Multimodal Benchmark for Analyzing the Opioid Industry Documents Archive

The opioid crisis represents a significant moment in public health that reveals systemic shortcomings across regulatory systems, healthcare practices, corporate governance, and public policy. Analyzing how these interconnected systems simultaneously failed to protect public health requires innovative analytic approaches for exploring the vast amounts of data and documents disclosed in the UCSF-JHU Opioid Industry Documents Archive (OIDA). The complexity, multimodal nature, and specialized characteristics of these healthcare-related legal and corporate documents necessitate more advanced methods and models tailored to specific data types and detailed annotations, ensuring the precision and professionalism in the analysis. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by organizing the original dataset according to document attributes and constructing a benchmark with 400k training documents and 10k for testing. From each document, we extract rich multimodal information-including textual content, visual elements, and layout structures-to capture a comprehensive range of features. Using multiple AI models, we then generate a large-scale dataset comprising 360k training QA pairs and 10k testing QA pairs. Building on this foundation, we develop domain-specific multimodal Large Language Models (LLMs) and explore the impact of multimodal inputs on task performance. To further enhance response accuracy, we incorporate historical QA pairs as contextual grounding for answering current queries. Additionally, we incorporate page references within the answers and introduce an importance-based page classifier, further improving the precision and relevance of the information provided. Preliminary results indicate the improvements with our AI assistant in document information extraction and question-answering tasks. The dataset is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/opioidarchive/oida-qa

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Analyzing Political Text at Scale with Online Tensor LDA

This paper proposes a topic modeling method that scales linearly to billions of documents. We make three core contributions: i) we present a topic modeling method, Tensor Latent Dirichlet Allocation (TLDA), that has identifiable and recoverable parameter guarantees and sample complexity guarantees for large data; ii) we show that this method is computationally and memory efficient (achieving speeds over 3-4x those of prior parallelized Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) methods), and that it scales linearly to text datasets with over a billion documents; iii) we provide an open-source, GPU-based implementation, of this method. This scaling enables previously prohibitive analyses, and we perform two real-world, large-scale new studies of interest to political scientists: we provide the first thorough analysis of the evolution of the #MeToo movement through the lens of over two years of Twitter conversation and a detailed study of social media conversations about election fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Thus this method provides social scientists with the ability to study very large corpora at scale and to answer important theoretically-relevant questions about salient issues in near real-time.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Calibrated Uncertainty Sampling for Active Learning

We study the problem of actively learning a classifier with a low calibration error. One of the most popular Acquisition Functions (AFs) in pool-based Active Learning (AL) is querying by the model's uncertainty. However, we recognize that an uncalibrated uncertainty model on the unlabeled pool may significantly affect the AF effectiveness, leading to sub-optimal generalization and high calibration error on unseen data. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) make it even worse as the model uncertainty from DNN is usually uncalibrated. Therefore, we propose a new AF by estimating calibration errors and query samples with the highest calibration error before leveraging DNN uncertainty. Specifically, we utilize a kernel calibration error estimator under the covariate shift and formally show that AL with this AF eventually leads to a bounded calibration error on the unlabeled pool and unseen test data. Empirically, our proposed method surpasses other AF baselines by having a lower calibration and generalization error across pool-based AL settings.

cs.LG↗