arXiv subjects

Anru R. Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Anru R. Zhang.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Planner Aware Path Learning in Diffusion Language Models Training

Diffusion language models have emerged as a powerful alternative to autoregressive models, enabling fast inference through more flexible and parallel generation paths. This flexibility of sampling is unlocked by new engineered sampling strategies, or planners, that select more favorable generation paths by iteratively planning - versus uniformly at random - where to denoise along the sequence. However, by modifying the reverse paths via planning, planners create an irrevocable mismatch between the uniformly random denoising paths assumed during training and planning-based inference. In this paper, we systematically investigate the mismatch of discrete diffusion training and inference under planning and theoretically prove that the standard discrete diffusion training evidence lower bound (ELBO) does not accurately describe a denoiser that uses a non-uniform planner. To address this gap, we derive a new planned evidence lower bound (P-ELBO) that incorporates planner-based reverse dynamics directly into the training objective. Using the P-ELBO, we introduce Planner Aware Path Learning (PAPL), a novel training scheme that aligns training and inference under a planned denoiser. PAPL is implemented as a simple yet effective modification to the standard masked discrete diffusion loss, making it widely applicable and easy to adopt. Empirically, we show PAPL delivers consistent gains across domains, including a 40% relative improvement in protein sequences, improved text generation with up to a 4x relative MAUVE gain, and 23% relative improvement in code generation HumanEval pass@10. Code is available at github.com/pengzhangzhi/PAPL .

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

The Geometry of Reasoning: Flowing Logics in Representation Space

We study how large language models (LLMs) ``think'' through their representation space. We propose a novel geometric framework that models an LLM's reasoning as flows -- embedding trajectories evolving where logic goes. We disentangle logical structure from semantics by employing the same natural deduction propositions with varied semantic carriers, allowing us to test whether LLMs internalize logic beyond surface form. This perspective connects reasoning with geometric quantities such as position, velocity, and curvature, enabling formal analysis in representation and concept spaces. Our theory establishes: (1) LLM reasoning corresponds to smooth flows in representation space, and (2) logical statements act as local controllers of these flows' velocities. Using learned representation proxies, we design controlled experiments to visualize and quantify reasoning flows, providing empirical validation of our theoretical framework. Our findings indicate that training solely via next-token prediction can lead LLMs to internalize logical invariants as higher-order geometry in representation space, challenging the ``stochastic parrot'' argument. Experiments across Qwen and LLaMA model families further suggest the presence of a general, possibly universal, representational law underlying machine understanding and human linguistic regularities, largely independent of specific training recipes or model architectures. Our work serves as both a conceptual foundation and practical tools for studying reasoning phenomena, offering a new lens for interpretability and formal analysis of LLMs' behavior.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Reliable Curation of EHR Dataset via Large Language Models under Environmental Constraints

Electronic health records (EHRs) are central to modern healthcare delivery and research; yet, many researchers lack the database expertise necessary to write complex SQL queries or generate effective visualizations, limiting efficient data use and scientific discovery. To address this barrier, we introduce CELEC, a large language model (LLM)-powered framework for automated EHR data extraction and analytics. CELEC translates natural language queries into SQL using a prompting strategy that integrates schema information, few-shot demonstrations, and chain-of-thought reasoning, which together improve accuracy and robustness. CELEC also adheres to strict privacy protocols: the LLM accesses only database metadata (e.g., table and column names), while all query execution occurs securely within the institutional environment, ensuring that no patient-level data is ever transmitted to or shared with the LLM. On a subset of the EHRSQL benchmark, CELEC achieves execution accuracy comparable to prior systems while maintaining low latency, cost efficiency, and strict privacy by exposing only database metadata to the LLM. Ablation studies confirm that each component of the SQL generation pipeline, particularly the few-shot demonstrations, plays a critical role in performance. By lowering technical barriers and enabling medical researchers to query EHR databases directly, CELEC streamlines research workflows and accelerates biomedical discovery.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2026

Functional-SVD for Heterogeneous Trajectories: Case Studies in Health

Trajectory data, including time series and longitudinal measurements, are increasingly common in health-related domains such as biomedical research and epidemiology. Real-world trajectory data frequently exhibit heterogeneity across subjects such as patients, sites, and subpopulations, yet many traditional methods are not designed to accommodate such heterogeneity in data analysis. To address this, we propose a unified framework, termed Functional Singular Value Decomposition (FSVD), for statistical learning with heterogeneous trajectories. We establish the theoretical foundations of FSVD and develop a corresponding estimation algorithm that accommodates noisy and irregular observations. We further adapt FSVD to a wide range of trajectory-learning tasks, including dimension reduction, factor modeling, regression, clustering, and data completion, while preserving its ability to account for heterogeneity, leverage inherent smoothness, and handle irregular sampling. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that FSVD-based methods consistently outperform existing approaches across these tasks. Finally, we apply FSVD to a COVID-19 case-count dataset and electronic health record datasets, showcasing its effective performance in global and subgroup pattern discovery and factor analysis.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

High-order Accurate Inference on Manifolds

We present a new framework for statistical inference on Riemannian manifolds that achieves high-order accuracy, addressing the challenges posed by non-Euclidean parameter spaces frequently encountered in modern data science. Our approach leverages a novel and computationally efficient procedure to reach higher-order asymptotic precision. In particular, we develop a bootstrap algorithm on Riemannian manifolds that is both computationally efficient and accurate for hypothesis testing and confidence region construction. Although locational hypothesis testing can be reformulated as a standard Euclidean problem, constructing high-order accurate confidence regions necessitates careful treatment of manifold geometry. To this end, we establish high-order asymptotics under an appropriate coordinate representation induced by a second-order retraction, thereby enabling precise expansions that incorporate curvature effects. We demonstrate the versatility of this framework across various manifold settings, including spheres, the Stiefel manifold, fixed-rank matrix manifolds, and rank-one tensor manifolds; for Euclidean submanifolds, we also introduce a class of projection-like coordinate charts with strong consistency properties. Finally, numerical studies confirm the practical merits of the proposed procedure.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Statistical Inference for Fuzzy Clustering

Clustering is a central tool in biomedical research for discovering heterogeneous patient subpopulations, where group boundaries are often diffuse rather than sharply separated. Traditional methods produce hard partitions, whereas soft clustering methods such as fuzzy $c$-means (FCM) allow mixed memberships and better capture uncertainty and gradual transitions. Despite the widespread use of FCM, principled statistical inference for fuzzy clustering remains limited. We develop a new framework for weighted fuzzy $c$-means (WFCM) for settings with potential cluster size imbalance. Cluster-specific weights rebalance the classical FCM criterion so that smaller clusters are not overwhelmed by dominant groups, and the weighted objective induces a normalized density model with scale parameter $σ$ and fuzziness parameter $m$. Estimation is performed via a blockwise majorize--minimize (MM) procedure that alternates closed-form membership and centroid updates with likelihood-based updates of $(σ,\bw)$. The intractable normalizing constant is approximated by importance sampling using a data-adaptive Gaussian mixture proposal. We further provide likelihood ratio tests for comparing cluster centers and bootstrap-based confidence intervals. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator, validate the method through simulations, and illustrate it using single-cell RNA-seq and Alzheimer disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data. These applications demonstrate stable uncertainty quantification and biologically meaningful soft memberships, ranging from well-separated cell populations under imbalance to a graded AD versus non-AD continuum consistent with disease progression.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Subtype-Aware Registration of Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain extensive patient information that can inform downstream clinical decisions, such as mortality prediction, disease phenotyping, and disease onset prediction. A key challenge in EHR data analysis is the temporal gap between when a condition is first recorded and its actual onset time. Such timeline misalignment can lead to artificially distinct biomarker trends among patients with similar disease progression, undermining the reliability of downstream analyses and complicating tasks such as disease subtyping and outcome prediction. To address this challenge, we provide a subtype-aware timeline registration method that leverages data projection and discrete optimization to correct timeline misalignment. Through simulation and real-world data analyses, we demonstrate that the proposed method effectively aligns distorted observed records with the true disease progression patterns, enhancing subtyping clarity and improving performance in downstream clinical analyses.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Causal Inference on Sequential Treatments via Tensor Completion

Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) are popular for causal inference of sequential treatments in longitudinal observational studies, which however are sensitive to model misspecification. To achieve flexible modeling, we envision the potential outcomes to form a three-dimensional tensor indexed by subject, time, and treatment regime and propose a tensorized history-restricted MSM (HRMSM). The semi-parametric tensor factor model allows us to leverage the underlying low-rank structure of the potential outcomes tensor and exploit the pre-treatment covariate information to recover the counterfactual outcomes. We incorporate the inverse probability of treatment weighting in the loss function for tensor completion to adjust for time-varying confounding. Theoretically, a non-asymptotic upper bound on the Frobenius norm error for the proposed estimator is provided. Empirically, simulation studies show that the proposed tensor completion approach outperforms the parametric HRMSM and existing matrix/tensor completion methods. Finally, we illustrate the practical utility of the proposed approach to study the effect of ventilation on organ dysfunction from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Integrated Analysis for Electronic Health Records with Structured and Sporadic Missingness

Objectives: We propose a novel imputation method tailored for Electronic Health Records (EHRs) with structured and sporadic missingness. Such missingness frequently arises in the integration of heterogeneous EHR datasets for downstream clinical applications. By addressing these gaps, our method provides a practical solution for integrated analysis, enhancing data utility and advancing the understanding of population health. Materials and Methods: We begin by demonstrating structured and sporadic missing mechanisms in the integrated analysis of EHR data. Following this, we introduce a novel imputation framework, Macomss, specifically designed to handle structurally and heterogeneously occurring missing data. We establish theoretical guarantees for Macomss, ensuring its robustness in preserving the integrity and reliability of integrated analyses. To assess its empirical performance, we conduct extensive simulation studies that replicate the complex missingness patterns observed in real-world EHR systems, complemented by validation using EHR datasets from the Duke University Health System (DUHS). Results: Simulation studies show that our approach consistently outperforms existing imputation methods. Using datasets from three hospitals within DUHS, Macomss achieves the lowest imputation errors for missing data in most cases and provides superior or comparable downstream prediction performance compared to benchmark methods. Conclusions: We provide a theoretically guaranteed and practically meaningful method for imputing structured and sporadic missing data, enabling accurate and reliable integrated analysis across multiple EHR datasets. The proposed approach holds significant potential for advancing research in population health.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Why Do Transformers Fail to Forecast Time Series In-Context?

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR($p$) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models $\textit{cannot}$ achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Tensor Decomposition with Unaligned Observations

This paper presents a canonical polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition that addresses unaligned observations. The mode with unaligned observations is represented using functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We introduce a versatile loss function that effectively accounts for various types of data, including binary, integer-valued, and positive-valued types. Additionally, we propose an optimization algorithm for computing tensor decompositions with unaligned observations, along with a stochastic gradient method to enhance computational efficiency. A sketching algorithm is also introduced to further improve efficiency when using the $\ell_2$ loss function. To demonstrate the efficacy of our methods, we provide illustrative examples using both synthetic data and an early childhood human microbiome dataset.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Functional Tensor Regression

Tensor regression has attracted significant attention in statistical research. This study tackles the challenge of handling covariates with smooth varying structures. We introduce a novel framework, termed functional tensor regression, which incorporates both the tensor and functional aspects of the covariate. To address the high dimensionality and functional continuity of the regression coefficient, we employ a low Tucker rank decomposition along with smooth regularization for the functional mode. We develop a functional Riemannian Gauss--Newton algorithm that demonstrates a provable quadratic convergence rate, while the estimation error bound is based on the tensor covariate dimension. Simulations and a neuroimaging analysis illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Revisit CP Tensor Decomposition: Statistical Optimality and Fast Convergence

Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition is a fundamental technique for analyzing high-dimensional tensor data. While the Alternating Least Squares (ALS) algorithm is widely used for computing CP decomposition due to its simplicity and empirical success, its theoretical foundation, particularly regarding statistical optimality and convergence behavior, remain underdeveloped, especially in noisy, non-orthogonal, and higher-rank settings. In this work, we revisit CP tensor decomposition from a statistical perspective and provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of ALS under a signal-plus-noise model. We establish non-asymptotic, minimax-optimal error bounds for tensors of general order, dimensions, and rank, assuming suitable initialization. To enable such initialization, we propose Tucker-based Approximation with Simultaneous Diagonalization (TASD), a robust method that improves stability and accuracy in noisy regimes. Combined with ALS, TASD yields a statistically consistent estimator. We further analyze the convergence dynamics of ALS, identifying a two-phase pattern-initial quadratic convergence followed by linear refinement. We further show that in the rank-one setting, ALS with an appropriately chosen initialization attains optimal error within just one or two iterations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Methods to Calculate the Upper Bound of Gini Coefficient Based on Grouped Data and the Result for China

Determining an upper bound, particularly the optimal upper bound of the Gini coefficient when dealing with grouped data without specified income brackets, remains an important and open question. In this paper, we introduce an efficient algorithm to calculate the exact optimal upper bound of the Gini coefficient with provable guarantees. To exemplify these methods, we also offer computed results for the Gini coefficients of urban and rural China spanning the years 2003 to 2008.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Reliable Generation of Privacy-preserving Synthetic Electronic Health Record Time Series via Diffusion Models

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are rich sources of patient-level data, offering valuable resources for medical data analysis. However, privacy concerns often restrict access to EHRs, hindering downstream analysis. Current EHR de-identification methods are flawed and can lead to potential privacy leakage. Additionally, existing publicly available EHR databases are limited, preventing the advancement of medical research using EHR. This study aims to overcome these challenges by generating realistic and privacy-preserving synthetic electronic health records (EHRs) time series efficiently. We introduce a new method for generating diverse and realistic synthetic EHR time series data using Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). We conducted experiments on six databases: Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV (MIMIC-III/IV), the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU), and non-EHR datasets on Stocks and Energy. We compared our proposed method with eight existing methods. Our results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms all existing methods in terms of data fidelity while requiring less training effort. Additionally, data generated by our method yields a lower discriminative accuracy compared to other baseline methods, indicating the proposed method can generate data with less privacy risk. The proposed diffusion-model-based method can reliably and efficiently generate synthetic EHR time series, which facilitates the downstream medical data analysis. Our numerical results show the superiority of the proposed method over all other existing methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Federated PCA and Estimation for Spiked Covariance Matrices: Optimal Rates and Efficient Algorithm

Federated Learning (FL) has gained significant recent attention in machine learning for its enhanced privacy and data security, making it indispensable in fields such as healthcare, finance, and personalized services. This paper investigates federated PCA and estimation for spiked covariance matrices under distributed differential privacy constraints. We establish minimax rates of convergence, with a key finding that the central server's optimal rate is the harmonic mean of the local clients' minimax rates. This guarantees consistent estimation at the central server as long as at least one local client provides consistent results. Notably, consistency is maintained even if some local estimators are inconsistent, provided there are enough clients. These findings highlight the robustness and scalability of FL for reliable statistical inference under privacy constraints. To establish minimax lower bounds, we derive a matrix version of van Trees' inequality, which is of independent interest. Furthermore, we propose an efficient algorithm that preserves differential privacy while achieving near-optimal rates at the central server, up to a logarithmic factor. We address significant technical challenges in analyzing this algorithm, which involves a three-layer spectral decomposition. Numerical performance of the proposed algorithm is investigated using both simulated and real data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Nonconvex Factorization and Manifold Formulations are Almost Equivalent in Low-rank Matrix Optimization

In this paper, we consider the geometric landscape connection of the widely studied manifold and factorization formulations in low-rank positive semidefinite (PSD) and general matrix optimization. We establish a sandwich relation on the spectrum of Riemannian and Euclidean Hessians at first-order stationary points (FOSPs). As a result of that, we obtain an equivalence on the set of FOSPs, second-order stationary points (SOSPs) and strict saddles between the manifold and the factorization formulations. In addition, we show the sandwich relation can be used to transfer more quantitative geometric properties from one formulation to another. Similarities and differences in the landscape connection under the PSD case and the general case are discussed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first geometric landscape connection between the manifold and the factorization formulations for handling rank constraints, and it provides a geometric explanation for the similar empirical performance of factorization and manifold approaches in low-rank matrix optimization observed in the literature. In the general low-rank matrix optimization, the landscape connection of two factorization formulations (unregularized and regularized ones) is also provided. By applying these geometric landscape connections, in particular, the sandwich relation, we are able to solve unanswered questions in literature and establish stronger results in the applications on geometric analysis of phase retrieval, well-conditioned low-rank matrix optimization, and the role of regularization in factorization arising from machine learning and signal processing.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Tensor Decomposition Meets RKHS: Efficient Algorithms for Smooth and Misaligned Data

The canonical polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition decomposes a multidimensional data array into a sum of outer products of finite-dimensional vectors. Instead, we can replace some or all of the vectors with continuous functions (infinite-dimensional vectors) from a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We refer to tensors with some infinite-dimensional modes as quasitensors, and the approach of decomposing a tensor with some continuous RKHS modes is referred to as CP-HiFi (hybrid infinite and finite dimensional) tensor decomposition. An advantage of CP-HiFi is that it can enforce smoothness in the infinite dimensional modes. Further, CP-HiFi does not require the observed data to lie on a regular and finite rectangular grid and naturally incorporates misaligned data. We detail the methodology and illustrate it on a synthetic example.

math.NA↗