arXiv subjects

Ansgar Steland

Publications and source records attributed to Ansgar Steland.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Online Detection of Changes in Moment-Based Projections: When to Retrain Deep Learners or Update Portfolios?

Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce drastically computational costs and opens a door to green deep learning. Our approach is based on the relationship to projected second moments monitoring, a problem also arising in other areas such as computational finance. Various open-end as well as closed-end monitoring rules are studied under mild assumptions on the training sample and the observations of the monitoring period. The results allow for high-dimensional non-stationary time series data and thus, especially, non-i.i.d. training data. Asymptotics is based on Gaussian approximations of projected partial sums allowing for an estimated projection vector. Estimation of projection vectors is studied both for classical non-$\ell_0$-sparsity as well as under sparsity. For the case that the optimal projection depends on the unknown covariance matrix, hard- and soft-thresholded estimators are studied. The method is analyzed by simulations and supported by synthetic data experiments.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive Thresholds for Monitoring and Screening in Imbalanced Samples: Optimality and Boosting Sensitivity

Suppose (standardized) measurements or statistics are monitored to raise an alarm when a threshold is exceeded. Often, the underlying population is heterogenous with respect to important discrete variables and thus samples may consist of imbalanced classes. We propose to use thresholds which depend on such covariates to boost the sensitivity for rare classes, which otherwise tend to be ignored. Under mild conditions, we identify optimal threshold functions and develop a feasible procedure for their computation. Further, for the proportional rule a nonparametric estimator of the threshold function is proposed and a central limit theorem is shown, including the case that conditional mean and variance used for standardization are estimated. For feasible uncertainty quantification a bootstrap scheme is proposed. The approach is illustrated and evaluated by a real data analysis.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

On the Weak Convergence of the Function-Indexed Sequential Empirical Process and its Smoothed Analogue under Nonstationarity

We study the sequential empirical process indexed by general function classes and its smoothed set-indexed analogue. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic equicontinuity are provided for nonstationary arrays of time series. This yields comprehensive general results that are applicable to various notions of dependence, which is exemplified in detail for nonstationary $α$-mixing series. Especially, we obtain the weak convergence of the sequential process under essentially the same mild assumptions as known for the classical empirical process. Core ingredients of the proofs are a novel maximal inequality for nonmeasurable stochastic processes, uniform chaining arguments and, for the set-indexed smoothed process, uniform Lipschitz properties.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Efficiently Computable Safety Bounds for Gaussian Processes in Active Learning

Active learning of physical systems must commonly respect practical safety constraints, which restricts the exploration of the design space. Gaussian Processes (GPs) and their calibrated uncertainty estimations are widely used for this purpose. In many technical applications the design space is explored via continuous trajectories, along which the safety needs to be assessed. This is particularly challenging for strict safety requirements in GP methods, as it employs computationally expensive Monte-Carlo sampling of high quantiles. We address these challenges by providing provable safety bounds based on the adaptively sampled median of the supremum of the posterior GP. Our method significantly reduces the number of samples required for estimating high safety probabilities, resulting in faster evaluation without sacrificing accuracy and exploration speed. The effectiveness of our safe active learning approach is demonstrated through extensive simulations and validated using a real-world engine example.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

On Extreme Value Asymptotics of Projected Sample Covariances in High Dimensions with Applications in Finance and Convolutional Networks

Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal conditions. The approach generalizes the case of the maximal deviation of the sample autocovariances function from its assumed values. Within a linear time series framework it is shown that Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true. As applications we discuss long-only mimimal-variance portfolio optimization and subportfolio analysis with respect to idiosyncratic risks, ETF index tracking by sparse tracking portfolios, convolutional deep learners for image analysis and the analysis of array-of-sensors data.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Projection inference for high-dimensional covariance matrices with structured shrinkage targets

Analyzing large samples of high-dimensional data under dependence is a challenging statistical problem as long time series may have change points, most importantly in the mean and the marginal covariances, for which one needs valid tests. Inference for large covariance matrices is especially difficult due to noise accumulation, resulting in singular estimates and poor power of related tests. The singularity of the sample covariance matrix in high dimensions can be overcome by considering a linear combination with a regular, more structured target matrix. This approach is known as shrinkage, and the target matrix is typically of diagonal form. In this paper, we consider covariance shrinkage towards structured nonparametric estimators of the bandable or Toeplitz type, respectively, aiming at improved estimation accuracy and statistical power of tests even under nonstationarity. We derive feasible Gaussian approximation results for bilinear projections of the shrinkage estimators which are valid under nonstationarity and dependence. These approximations especially enable us to formulate a statistical test for structural breaks in the marginal covariance structure of high-dimensional time series without restrictions on the dimension, and which is robust against nonstationarity of nuisance parameters. We show via simulations that shrinkage helps to increase the power of the proposed tests. Moreover, we suggest a data-driven choice of the shrinkage weights, and assess its performance by means of a Monte Carlo study. The results indicate that the proposed shrinkage estimator is superior for non-Toeplitz covariance structures close to fractional Gaussian noise.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Sequential Gaussian approximation for nonstationary time series in high dimensions

Gaussian couplings of partial sum processes are derived for the high-dimensional regime $d=o(n^{1/3})$. The coupling is derived for sums of independent random vectors and subsequently extended to nonstationary time series. Our inequalities depend explicitly on the dimension and on a measure of nonstationarity, and are thus also applicable to arrays of random vectors. To enable high-dimensional statistical inference, a feasible Gaussian approximation scheme is proposed. Applications to sequential testing and change-point detection are described.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Regularity of multifractional moving average processes with random Hurst exponent

A recently proposed alternative to multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) with random Hurst exponent is studied, which we refer to as Itô-mBm. It is shown that Itô-mBm is locally self-similar. In contrast to mBm, its pathwise regularity is almost unaffected by the roughness of the functional Hurst parameter. The pathwise properties are established via a new polynomial moment condition similar to the Kolmogorov-Chentsov theorem, allowing for random local Hölder exponents. Our results are applicable to a broad class of moving average processes where pathwise regularity and long memory properties may be decoupled, e.g. to a multifractional generalization of the Matérn process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Consistency of Extreme Learning Machines and Regression under Non-Stationarity and Dependence for ML-Enhanced Moving Objects

Supervised learning by extreme learning machines resp. neural networks with random weights is studied under a non-stationary spatial-temporal sampling design which especially addresses settings where an autonomous object moving in a non-stationary spatial environment collects and analyzes data. The stochastic model especially allows for spatial heterogeneity and weak dependence. As efficient and computationally cheap learning methods (unconstrained) least squares, ridge regression and $\ell_s$-penalized least squares (including the LASSO) are studied. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the least squares and ridge regression estimates as well as corresponding consistency results for the $\ell_s$-penalty are shown under weak conditions. The results also cover bounds for the sample squared predicition error.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Segmentation of Photovoltaic Module Cells in Uncalibrated Electroluminescence Images

High resolution electroluminescence (EL) images captured in the infrared spectrum allow to visually and non-destructively inspect the quality of photovoltaic (PV) modules. Currently, however, such a visual inspection requires trained experts to discern different kinds of defects, which is time-consuming and expensive. Automated segmentation of cells is therefore a key step in automating the visual inspection workflow. In this work, we propose a robust automated segmentation method for extraction of individual solar cells from EL images of PV modules. This enables controlled studies on large amounts of data to understanding the effects of module degradation over time-a process not yet fully understood. The proposed method infers in several steps a high-level solar module representation from low-level edge features. An important step in the algorithm is to formulate the segmentation problem in terms of lens calibration by exploiting the plumbline constraint. We evaluate our method on a dataset of various solar modules types containing a total of 408 solar cells with various defects. Our method robustly solves this task with a median weighted Jaccard index of 94.47% and an $F_1$ score of 97.62%, both indicating a very high similarity between automatically segmented and ground truth solar cell masks.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Cross-Validation and Uncertainty Determination for Randomized Neural Networks with Applications to Mobile Sensors

Randomized artificial neural networks such as extreme learning machines provide an attractive and efficient method for supervised learning under limited computing ressources and green machine learning. This especially applies when equipping mobile devices (sensors) with weak artificial intelligence. Results are discussed about supervised learning with such networks and regression methods in terms of consistency and bounds for the generalization and prediction error. Especially, some recent results are reviewed addressing learning with data sampled by moving sensors leading to non-stationary and dependent samples. As randomized networks lead to random out-of-sample performance measures, we study a cross-validation approach to handle the randomness and make use of it to improve out-of-sample performance. Additionally, a computationally efficient approach to determine the resulting uncertainty in terms of a confidence interval for the mean out-of-sample prediction error is discussed based on two-stage estimation. The approach is applied to a prediction problem arising in vehicle integrated photovoltaics.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Is there a role for statistics in artificial intelligence?

The research on and application of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered a comprehensive scientific, economic, social and political discussion. Here we argue that statistics, as an interdisciplinary scientific field, plays a substantial role both for the theoretical and practical understanding of AI and for its future development. Statistics might even be considered a core element of AI. With its specialist knowledge of data evaluation, starting with the precise formulation of the research question and passing through a study design stage on to analysis and interpretation of the results, statistics is a natural partner for other disciplines in teaching, research and practice. This paper aims at contributing to the current discussion by highlighting the relevance of statistical methodology in the context of AI development. In particular, we discuss contributions of statistics to the field of artificial intelligence concerning methodological development, planning and design of studies, assessment of data quality and data collection, differentiation of causality and associations and assessment of uncertainty in results. Moreover, the paper also deals with the equally necessary and meaningful extension of curricula in schools and universities.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Detecting Changes in the Second Moment Structure of High-Dimensional Sensor-Type Data in a $K$-Sample Setting

The $K$ sample problem for high-dimensional vector time series is studied, especially focusing on sensor data streams, in order to analyze the second moment structure and detect changes across samples and/or across variables cumulated sum (CUSUM) statistics of bilinear forms of the sample covariance matrix. In this model $K$ independent vector time series $\mathbf{Y}_{T,1},\dots,\mathbf{Y}_{T,K}$ are observed over a time span $ [0,T] $, which may correspond to $K$ sensors (locations) yielding $d$-dimensional data as well as $K$ locations where $d$ sensors emit univariate data. Unequal sample sizes are considered as arising when the sampling rate of the sensors differs. We provide large sample approximations and two related change-point statistics, a sums of squares and a pooled variance statistic. The resulting procedures are investigated by simulations and illustrated by analyzing a real data set.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Testing and Estimating Change-Points in the Covariance Matrix of a High-Dimensional Time Series

This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models) of growing dimension and spiked covariance models. The approach uses bilinear forms of the centered or non-centered sample variance-covariance matrix. Change-point testing and estimation are based on maximally selected weighted cumulated sum (CUSUM) statistics. Large sample approximations under a change-point regime are provided including a multivariate CUSUM transform of increasing dimension. For the unknown asymptotic variance and covariance parameters associated to (pairs of) CUSUM statistics we propose consistent estimators. Based on weak laws of large numbers for their sequential versions, we also consider stopped sample estimation where observations until the estimated change-point are used. Finite sample properties of the procedures are investigated by simulations and their application is illustrated by analyzing a real data set from environmetrics.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

High-Confident Nonparametric Fixed-Width Uncertainty Intervals and Applications to Projected High-Dimensional Data and Common Mean Estimation

Nonparametric two-stage procedures to construct fixed-width confidence intervals are studied to quantify uncertainty. It is shown that the validity of the random central limit theorem (RCLT) accompanied by a consistent and asymptotically unbiased estimator of the asymptotic variance already guarantees consistency and first as well as second order efficiency of the two-stage procedures. This holds under the common asymptotics where the length of the confidence interval tends to $0$ as well as under the novel proposed high-confident asymptotics where the confidence level tends to $1$. The approach is motivated by and applicable to data analysis from distributed big data with non-negligible costs of data queries. The following problems are discussed: Fixed-width intervals for a the mean, for a projection when observing high-dimensional data and for the common mean when using nonlinear common mean estimators under order constraints. The procedures are investigated by simulations and illustrated by a real data analysis.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Jackknife variance estimation for common mean estimators under ordered variances and general two-sample statistics

Samples with a common mean but possibly different, ordered variances arise in various fields such as interlaboratory experiments, field studies or the analysis of sensor data. Estimators for the common mean under ordered variances typically employ random weights, which depend on the sample means and the unbiased variance estimators. They take different forms when the sample estimators are in agreement with the order constraints or not, which complicates even basic analyses such as estimating their variance. We propose to use the jackknife, whose consistency is established for general smooth two--sample statistics induced by continuously Gâteux or Fréchet differentiable functionals, and, more generally, asymptotically linear two--sample statistics, allowing us to study a large class of common mean estimators. Further, it is shown that the common mean estimators under consideration satisfy a central limit theorem (CLT). We investigate the accuracy of the resulting confidence intervals by simulations and illustrate the approach by analyzing several data sets.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Shrinkage for Covariance Estimation: Asymptotics, Confidence Intervals, Bounds and Applications in Sensor Monitoring and Finance

When shrinking a covariance matrix towards (a multiple) of the identity matrix, the trace of the covariance matrix arises naturally as the optimal scaling factor for the identity target. The trace also appears in other context, for example when measuring the size of a matrix or the amount of uncertainty. Of particular interest is the case when the dimension of the covariance matrix is large. Then the problem arises that the sample covariance matrix is singular if the dimension is larger than the sample size. Another issue is that usually the estimation has to based on correlated time series data. We study the estimation of the trace functional allowing for a high-dimensional time series model, where the dimension is allowed to grow with the sample size - without any constraint. Based on a recent result, we investigate a confidence interval for the trace, which also allows us to propose lower and upper bounds for the shrinkage covariance estimator as well as bounds for the variance of projections. In addition, we provide a novel result dealing with shrinkage towards a diagonal target. We investigate the accuracy of the confidence interval by a simulation study, which indicates good performance, and analyze three stock market data sets to illustrate the proposed bounds, where the dimension (number of stocks) ranges between $32$ and $475$. Especially, we apply the results to portfolio optimization and determine bounds for the risk associated to the variance-minimizing portfolio.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

Automatic Processing and Solar Cell Detection in Photovoltaic Electroluminescence Images

Electroluminescence (EL) imaging is a powerful and established technique for assessing the quality of photovoltaic (PV) modules, which consist of many electrically connected solar cells arranged in a grid. The analysis of imperfect real-world images requires reliable methods for preprocessing, detection and extraction of the cells. We propose several methods for those tasks, which, however, can be modified to related imaging problems where similar geometric objects need to be detected accurately. Allowing for images taken under difficult outdoor conditions, we present methods to correct for rotation and perspective distortions. The next important step is the extraction of the solar cells of a PV module, for instance to pass them to a procedure to detect and analyze defects on their surface. We propose a method based on specialized Hough transforms, which allows to extract the cells even when the module is surrounded by disturbing background and a fast method based on cumulated sums (CUSUM) change detection to extract the cell area of single-cell mini-module, where the correction of perspective distortion is implicitly done. The methods are highly automatized to allow for big data analyses. Their application to a large database of EL images substantiates that the methods work reliably on a large scale for real-world images. Simulations show that the approach achieves high accuracy, reliability and robustness. This even holds for low contrast images as evaluated by comparing the simulated accuracy for a low and a high contrast image.

cs.CV↗