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Anson Ho

Publications and source records attributed to Anson Ho.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

International AI Safety Report 2026

The International AI Safety Report 2026 synthesises the current scientific evidence on the capabilities, emerging risks, and safety of general-purpose AI systems. The report series was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. 29 nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. Over 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the Report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

cs.CY

A Rosetta Stone for AI Benchmarks

Most AI benchmarks saturate within years or even months after they are introduced, making it hard to study long-run trends in AI capabilities. To address this challenge, we build a statistical framework that stitches benchmarks together, putting model capabilities and benchmark difficulties on a single numerical scale. This acts as a "Rosetta Stone", allowing us to compare models across a wide range of abilities and time, even if they are not evaluated on the same benchmarks. Moreover, this works without assuming how capabilities evolve across time or with training compute. We demonstrate three applications of this framework. First, we use it to measure the speed of AI progress over time, and to forecast future AI capabilities. Second, we estimate the rate of improvements in algorithmic efficiency, finding estimates that are higher, but broadly consistent with prior work. Finally, we find that our approach can be used to detect rapid accelerations in AI progress.

cs.AI

GATE: An Integrated Assessment Model for AI Automation

Assessing the economic impacts of artificial intelligence requires integrating insights from both computer science and economics. We present the Growth and AI Transition Endogenous model (GATE), a dynamic integrated assessment model that simulates the economic effects of AI automation. GATE combines three key ingredients that have not been brought together in previous work: (1) a compute-based model of AI development, (2) an AI automation framework, and (3) a semi-endogenous growth model featuring endogenous investment and adjustment costs. The model allows users to simulate the economic effects of the transition to advanced AI across a range of potential scenarios. GATE captures the interactions between economic variables, including investment, automation, innovation, and growth, as well as AI-related inputs such as compute and algorithms. This paper explains the model's structure and functionality, emphasizing AI development for economists and economic modeling for the AI community. The model is implemented in an interactive sandbox, enabling users to explore the impact of AI under different parameter choices and policy interventions. The modeling sandbox is available at: www.epoch.ai/GATE.

econ.GN

International AI Safety Report

The first International AI Safety Report comprehensively synthesizes the current evidence on the capabilities, risks, and safety of advanced AI systems. The report was mandated by the nations attending the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, UK. Thirty nations, the UN, the OECD, and the EU each nominated a representative to the report's Expert Advisory Panel. A total of 100 AI experts contributed, representing diverse perspectives and disciplines. Led by the report's Chair, these independent experts collectively had full discretion over the report's content.

cs.CY

FrontierMath: A Benchmark for Evaluating Advanced Mathematical Reasoning in AI

We introduce FrontierMath, a benchmark of hundreds of original, exceptionally challenging mathematics problems crafted and vetted by expert mathematicians. The questions cover most major branches of modern mathematics -- from computationally intensive problems in number theory and real analysis to abstract questions in algebraic geometry and category theory. Solving a typical problem requires multiple hours of effort from a researcher in the relevant branch of mathematics, and for the upper end questions, multiple days. FrontierMath uses new, unpublished problems and automated verification to reliably evaluate models while minimizing risk of data contamination. Current state-of-the-art AI models solve under 2% of problems, revealing a vast gap between AI capabilities and the prowess of the mathematical community. As AI systems advance toward expert-level mathematical abilities, FrontierMath offers a rigorous testbed that quantifies their progress.

cs.AI

Estimating Idea Production: A Methodological Survey

Accurately modeling the production of new ideas is crucial for innovation theory and endogenous growth models. This paper provides a comprehensive methodological survey of strategies for estimating idea production functions. We explore various methods, including naive approaches, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian inference, each suited to different data availability settings. Through case studies ranging from total factor productivity to software R&D, we show how to apply these methodologies in practice. Our synthesis provides researchers with guidance on strategies for characterizing idea production functions and highlights obstacles that must be addressed through further empirical validation.

econ.GN

Algorithmic progress in language models

We investigate the rate at which algorithms for pre-training language models have improved since the advent of deep learning. Using a dataset of over 200 language model evaluations on Wikitext and Penn Treebank spanning 2012-2023, we find that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of around 5 to 14 months, substantially faster than hardware gains per Moore's Law. We estimate augmented scaling laws, which enable us to quantify algorithmic progress and determine the relative contributions of scaling models versus innovations in training algorithms. Despite the rapid pace of algorithmic progress and the development of new architectures such as the transformer, our analysis reveals that the increase in compute made an even larger contribution to overall performance improvements over this time period. Though limited by noisy benchmark data, our analysis quantifies the rapid progress in language modeling, shedding light on the relative contributions from compute and algorithms.

cs.CL

Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors

CMOS microprocessors have achieved massive energy efficiency gains but may reach limits soon. This paper presents an approach to estimating the limits on the maximum floating point operations per Joule (FLOP/J) for CMOS microprocessors. We analyze the three primary sources of energy dissipation: transistor switching, interconnect capacitances and leakage power. Using first-principles calculations of minimum energy costs based on Landauer's principle, prior estimates of relevant parameters, and empirical data on hardware, we derive the energy cost per FLOP for each component. Combining these yields a geometric mean estimate of 4.7e15 FP4/J for the maximum CMOS energy efficiency, roughly two hundred-fold more efficient than current microprocessors.

cs.ET

Will we run out of data? Limits of LLM scaling based on human-generated data

We investigate the potential constraints on LLM scaling posed by the availability of public human-generated text data. We forecast the growing demand for training data based on current trends and estimate the total stock of public human text data. Our findings indicate that if current LLM development trends continue, models will be trained on datasets roughly equal in size to the available stock of public human text data between 2026 and 2032, or slightly earlier if models are overtrained. We explore how progress in language modeling can continue when human-generated text datasets cannot be scaled any further. We argue that synthetic data generation, transfer learning from data-rich domains, and data efficiency improvements might support further progress.

cs.LG

Toward Transparent AI: A Survey on Interpreting the Inner Structures of Deep Neural Networks

The last decade of machine learning has seen drastic increases in scale and capabilities. Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly being deployed in the real world. However, they are difficult to analyze, raising concerns about using them without a rigorous understanding of how they function. Effective tools for interpreting them will be important for building more trustworthy AI by helping to identify problems, fix bugs, and improve basic understanding. In particular, "inner" interpretability techniques, which focus on explaining the internal components of DNNs, are well-suited for developing a mechanistic understanding, guiding manual modifications, and reverse engineering solutions. Much recent work has focused on DNN interpretability, and rapid progress has thus far made a thorough systematization of methods difficult. In this survey, we review over 300 works with a focus on inner interpretability tools. We introduce a taxonomy that classifies methods by what part of the network they help to explain (weights, neurons, subnetworks, or latent representations) and whether they are implemented during (intrinsic) or after (post hoc) training. To our knowledge, we are also the first to survey a number of connections between interpretability research and work in adversarial robustness, continual learning, modularity, network compression, and studying the human visual system. We discuss key challenges and argue that the status quo in interpretability research is largely unproductive. Finally, we highlight the importance of future work that emphasizes diagnostics, debugging, adversaries, and benchmarking in order to make interpretability tools more useful to engineers in practical applications.

cs.LG

Machine Learning Model Sizes and the Parameter Gap

We study trends in model size of notable machine learning systems over time using a curated dataset. From 1950 to 2018, model size in language models increased steadily by seven orders of magnitude. The trend then accelerated, with model size increasing by another five orders of magnitude in just 4 years from 2018 to 2022. Vision models grew at a more constant pace, totaling 7 orders of magnitude of growth between 1950 and 2022. We also identify that, since 2020, there have been many language models below 20B parameters, many models above 70B parameters, but a scarcity of models in the 20-70B parameter range. We refer to that scarcity as the parameter gap. We provide some stylized facts about the parameter gap and propose a few hypotheses to explain it. The explanations we favor are: (a) increasing model size beyond 20B parameters requires adopting different parallelism techniques, which makes mid-sized models less cost-effective, (b) GPT-3 was one order of magnitude larger than previous language models, and researchers afterwards primarily experimented with bigger models to outperform it. While these dynamics likely exist, and we believe they play some role in generating the gap, we don't have high confidence that there are no other, more important dynamics at play.

cs.LG

Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning

Compute, data, and algorithmic advances are the three fundamental factors that guide the progress of modern Machine Learning (ML). In this paper we study trends in the most readily quantified factor - compute. We show that before 2010 training compute grew in line with Moore's law, doubling roughly every 20 months. Since the advent of Deep Learning in the early 2010s, the scaling of training compute has accelerated, doubling approximately every 6 months. In late 2015, a new trend emerged as firms developed large-scale ML models with 10 to 100-fold larger requirements in training compute. Based on these observations we split the history of compute in ML into three eras: the Pre Deep Learning Era, the Deep Learning Era and the Large-Scale Era. Overall, our work highlights the fast-growing compute requirements for training advanced ML systems.

cs.LG