arXiv subjects

Anthony Bagnall

Publications and source records attributed to Anthony Bagnall.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Local Reference Geometry Residual Augmentation for Imbalanced Time Series Classification

Imbalanced time series classification is often addressed by changing the training distribution, objective, logits, or final threshold. These interventions address important biases, yet leave a representation-level question unmeasured: after minority support is reduced, does a learned feature space remain locally reliable around minority regions? We identify a training-local geometry failure: under imbalance, minority cases can lie in sparse, rest-dominated, or mixed feature-space neighborhoods, even when the representation retains useful global class structure. To diagnose and repair this failure, we propose Local Reference Geometry (LRG), a lightweight post-hoc feature augmentation module applied between a fixed feature extractor and the classifier head. Using training features only, LRG measures local exposure and class-mixture risk, then augments each fixed feature with a standardized signed displacement from nearby training geometry and an LDA-projected residual summary. On controlled UCR/Bake Off Redux imbalance benchmarks, paired raw-versus-LRG comparisons show gains for learned, pretrained, and fixed representations, including when LRG is combined with training-level interventions and post-encoder classifier corrections. Ablations show that the gain comes from the signed local residual appended to the original feature, rather than from generic prototype distances, affinity features, scalar statistics, or VLAD-style codes. Further analyses support the proposed local-geometry failure hypothesis: minority neighborhoods become increasingly rest-exposed under imbalance, training-local risk identifies error-prone regions, and LRG gains concentrate in those high-risk regions.

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arXiv2026

Soft-MSM: Differentiable Context-Aware Elastic Alignment for Time Series

Elastic distances like dynamic time warping (DTW) are central to time series machine learning because they compare sequences under local temporal misalignment. Soft-DTW is an adaptation of DTW that can be used as a gradient-based loss by replacing the hard minimum in its dynamic-programming recursion with a smooth relaxation. However, this approach does not directly extend to elastic distances whose transition costs depend on the local alignment context. Move-Split-Merge (MSM) is one such distance: it uses context-aware split and merge penalties and has often outperformed DTW in supervised and unsupervised time series machine learning tasks such as classification and clustering. We introduce Soft-MSM, a smooth relaxation of MSM and an elastic alignment loss with context-aware transition costs. Central to the formulation is a smooth gated surrogate for MSM's piecewise split/merge cost, which enables gradients through both the dynamic-programming recursion and the local transition structure. We derive the forward recursion, backward recursion, soft alignment matrix, closed-form gradient, limiting behaviour, and divergence-corrected formulation. Experiments on 112 UCR datasets show that Soft-MSM gives lower MSM barycentre loss than existing MSM barycentre methods, and yields significantly better clustering and nearest-centroid classification performance than Soft-DTW-based alternatives. An implementation is available in the open-source \texttt{aeon} toolkit.

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arXiv2026

The Multiverse of Time Series Machine Learning: an Archive for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Time series machine learning (TSML) is a growing research field that spans a wide range of tasks. The popularity of established tasks such as classification, clustering, and extrinsic regression has, in part, been driven by the availability of benchmark datasets. An archive of 30 multivariate time series classification datasets, introduced in 2018 and commonly known as the UEA archive, has since become an essential resource cited in hundreds of publications. We present a substantial expansion of this archive that more than quadruples its size, from 30 to 133 classification problems. We also release preprocessed versions of datasets containing missing values or unequal length series, bringing the total number of datasets to 147. Reflecting the growth of the archive and the broader community, we rebrand it as the Multiverse archive to capture its diversity of domains. The Multiverse archive includes datasets from multiple sources, consolidating other collections and standalone datasets into a single, unified repository. Recognising that running experiments across the full archive is computationally demanding, we recommend a subset of the full archive called Multiverse-core (MV-core) for initial exploration. To support researchers in using the new archive, we provide detailed guidance and a baseline evaluation of established and recent classification algorithms, establishing performance benchmarks for future research. We have created a dedicated repository for the Multiverse archive that provides a common aeon and scikit-learn compatible framework for reproducibility, an extensive record of published results, and an interactive interface to explore the results.

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arXiv2024

Rock the KASBA: Blazingly Fast and Accurate Time Series Clustering

Time series data has become increasingly prevalent across numerous domains, driving a growing demand for time series machine learning techniques. Among these, time series clustering (TSCL) stands out as one of the most popular machine learning tasks. TSCL serves as a powerful exploratory analysis tool and is also employed as a preprocessing step or subroutine for various tasks, including anomaly detection, segmentation, and classification. The most popular TSCL algorithms are either fast (in terms of run time) but perform poorly on benchmark problems, or perform well on benchmarks but scale poorly. We present a new TSCL algorithm, the $k$-means (K) accelerated (A) Stochastic subgradient (S) Barycentre (B) Average (A) (KASBA) clustering algorithm. KASBA is a $k$-means clustering algorithm that uses the Move-Split-Merge (MSM) elastic distance at all stages of clustering, applies a randomised stochastic subgradient gradient descent to find barycentre centroids, links each stage of clustering to accelerate convergence and exploits the metric property of MSM distance to avoid a large proportion of distance calculations. It is a versatile and scalable clusterer designed for real-world TSCL applications. It allows practitioners to balance run time and clustering performance. We demonstrate through extensive experimentation that KASBA produces significantly better clustering than the faster state of the art clusterers and is offers orders of magnitude improvement in run time over the most performant $k$-means alternatives.

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arXiv2024

Convolutional and Deep Learning based techniques for Time Series Ordinal Classification

Time Series Classification (TSC) covers the supervised learning problem where input data is provided in the form of series of values observed through repeated measurements over time, and whose objective is to predict the category to which they belong. When the class values are ordinal, classifiers that take this into account can perform better than nominal classifiers. Time Series Ordinal Classification (TSOC) is the field covering this gap, yet unexplored in the literature. There are a wide range of time series problems showing an ordered label structure, and TSC techniques that ignore the order relationship discard useful information. Hence, this paper presents a first benchmarking of TSOC methodologies, exploiting the ordering of the target labels to boost the performance of current TSC state-of-the-art. Both convolutional- and deep learning-based methodologies (among the best performing alternatives for nominal TSC) are adapted for TSOC. For the experiments, a selection of 29 ordinal problems from two well-known archives has been made. In this way, this paper contributes to the establishment of the state-of-the-art in TSOC. The results obtained by ordinal versions are found to be significantly better than current nominal TSC techniques in terms of ordinal performance metrics, outlining the importance of considering the ordering of the labels when dealing with this kind of problems.

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arXiv2024

On time series clustering with k-means

There is a long history of research into time series clustering using distance-based partitional clustering. Many of the most popular algorithms adapt k-means (also known as Lloyd's algorithm) to exploit time dependencies in the data by specifying a time series distance function. However, these algorithms are often presented with k-means configured in various ways, altering key parameters such as the initialisation strategy. This variability makes it difficult to compare studies because k-means is known to be highly sensitive to its configuration. To address this, we propose a standard Lloyd's-based model for TSCL that adopts an end-to-end approach, incorporating a specialised distance function not only in the assignment step but also in the initialisation and stopping criteria. By doing so, we create a unified structure for comparing seven popular Lloyd's-based TSCL algorithms. This common framework enables us to more easily attribute differences in clustering performance to the distance function itself, rather than variations in the k-means configuration.

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arXiv2024

aeon: a Python toolkit for learning from time series

aeon is a unified Python 3 library for all machine learning tasks involving time series. The package contains modules for time series forecasting, classification, extrinsic regression and clustering, as well as a variety of utilities, transformations and distance measures designed for time series data. aeon also has a number of experimental modules for tasks such as anomaly detection, similarity search and segmentation. aeon follows the scikit-learn API as much as possible to help new users and enable easy integration of aeon estimators with useful tools such as model selection and pipelines. It provides a broad library of time series algorithms, including efficient implementations of the very latest advances in research. Using a system of optional dependencies, aeon integrates a wide variety of packages into a single interface while keeping the core framework with minimal dependencies. The package is distributed under the 3-Clause BSD license and is available at https://github.com/ aeon-toolkit/aeon. This version was submitted to the JMLR journal on 02 Nov 2023 for v0.5.0 of aeon. At the time of this preprint aeon has released v0.9.0, and has had substantial changes.

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arXiv2024

Bake off redux: a review and experimental evaluation of recent time series classification algorithms

In 2017, a research paper compared 18 Time Series Classification (TSC) algorithms on 85 datasets from the University of California, Riverside (UCR) archive. This study, commonly referred to as a `bake off', identified that only nine algorithms performed significantly better than the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Rotation Forest benchmarks that were used. The study categorised each algorithm by the type of feature they extract from time series data, forming a taxonomy of five main algorithm types. This categorisation of algorithms alongside the provision of code and accessible results for reproducibility has helped fuel an increase in popularity of the TSC field. Over six years have passed since this bake off, the UCR archive has expanded to 112 datasets and there have been a large number of new algorithms proposed. We revisit the bake off, seeing how each of the proposed categories have advanced since the original publication, and evaluate the performance of newer algorithms against the previous best-of-category using an expanded UCR archive. We extend the taxonomy to include three new categories to reflect recent developments. Alongside the originally proposed distance, interval, shapelet, dictionary and hybrid based algorithms, we compare newer convolution and feature based algorithms as well as deep learning approaches. We introduce 30 classification datasets either recently donated to the archive or reformatted to the TSC format, and use these to further evaluate the best performing algorithm from each category. Overall, we find that two recently proposed algorithms, Hydra+MultiROCKET and HIVE-COTEv2, perform significantly better than other approaches on both the current and new TSC problems.

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arXiv2023

Unsupervised Feature Based Algorithms for Time Series Extrinsic Regression

Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER) involves using a set of training time series to form a predictive model of a continuous response variable that is not directly related to the regressor series. The TSER archive for comparing algorithms was released in 2022 with 19 problems. We increase the size of this archive to 63 problems and reproduce the previous comparison of baseline algorithms. We then extend the comparison to include a wider range of standard regressors and the latest versions of TSER models used in the previous study. We show that none of the previously evaluated regressors can outperform a regression adaptation of a standard classifier, rotation forest. We introduce two new TSER algorithms developed from related work in time series classification. FreshPRINCE is a pipeline estimator consisting of a transform into a wide range of summary features followed by a rotation forest regressor. DrCIF is a tree ensemble that creates features from summary statistics over random intervals. Our study demonstrates that both algorithms, along with InceptionTime, exhibit significantly better performance compared to the other 18 regressors tested. More importantly, these two proposals (DrCIF and FreshPRINCE) models are the only ones that significantly outperform the standard rotation forest regressor.

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arXiv2023

A tale of two toolkits, report the third: on the usage and performance of HIVE-COTE v1.0

The Hierarchical Vote Collective of Transformation-based Ensembles (HIVE-COTE) is a heterogeneous meta ensemble for time series classification. Since it was first proposed in 2016, the algorithm has undergone some minor changes and there is now a configurable, scalable and easy to use version available in two open source repositories. We present an overview of the latest stable HIVE-COTE, version 1.0, and describe how it differs to the original. We provide a walkthrough guide of how to use the classifier, and conduct extensive experimental evaluation of its predictive performance and resource usage. We compare the performance of HIVE-COTE to three recently proposed algorithms using the aeon toolkit.

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arXiv2023

A Review and Evaluation of Elastic Distance Functions for Time Series Clustering

Time series clustering is the act of grouping time series data without recourse to a label. Algorithms that cluster time series can be classified into two groups: those that employ a time series specific distance measure; and those that derive features from time series. Both approaches usually rely on traditional clustering algorithms such as $k$-means. Our focus is on distance based time series that employ elastic distance measures, i.e. distances that perform some kind of realignment whilst measuring distance. We describe nine commonly used elastic distance measures and compare their performance with k-means and k-medoids clustering. Our findings are surprising. The most popular technique, dynamic time warping (DTW), performs worse than Euclidean distance with k-means, and even when tuned, is no better. Using k-medoids rather than k-means improved the clusterings for all nine distance measures. DTW is not significantly better than Euclidean distance with k-medoids. Generally, distance measures that employ editing in conjunction with warping perform better, and one distance measure, the move-split-merge (MSM) method, is the best performing measure of this study. We also compare to clustering with DTW using barycentre averaging (DBA). We find that DBA does improve DTW k-means, but that the standard DBA is still worse than using MSM. Our conclusion is to recommend MSM with k-medoids as the benchmark algorithm for clustering time series with elastic distance measures. We provide implementations in the aeon toolkit, results and guidance on reproducing results on the associated GitHub repository.

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arXiv2023

Benchmarking Multivariate Time Series Classification Algorithms

Time Series Classification (TSC) involved building predictive models for a discrete target variable from ordered, real valued, attributes. Over recent years, a new set of TSC algorithms have been developed which have made significant improvement over the previous state of the art. The main focus has been on univariate TSC, i.e. the problem where each case has a single series and a class label. In reality, it is more common to encounter multivariate TSC (MTSC) problems where multiple series are associated with a single label. Despite this, much less consideration has been given to MTSC than the univariate case. The UEA archive of 30 MTSC problems released in 2018 has made comparison of algorithms easier. We review recently proposed bespoke MTSC algorithms based on deep learning, shapelets and bag of words approaches. The simplest approach to MTSC is to ensemble univariate classifiers over the multivariate dimensions. We compare the bespoke algorithms to these dimension independent approaches on the 26 of the 30 MTSC archive problems where the data are all of equal length. We demonstrate that the independent ensemble of HIVE-COTE classifiers is the most accurate, but that, unlike with univariate classification, dynamic time warping is still competitive at MTSC.

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arXiv2022

The FreshPRINCE: A Simple Transformation Based Pipeline Time Series Classifier

There have recently been significant advances in the accuracy of algorithms proposed for time series classification (TSC). However, a commonly asked question by real world practitioners and data scientists less familiar with the research topic, is whether the complexity of the algorithms considered state of the art is really necessary. Many times the first approach suggested is a simple pipeline of summary statistics or other time series feature extraction approaches such as TSFresh, which in itself is a sensible question; in publications on TSC algorithms generalised for multiple problem types, we rarely see these approaches considered or compared against. We experiment with basic feature extractors using vector based classifiers shown to be effective with continuous attributes in current state-of-the-art time series classifiers. We test these approaches on the UCR time series dataset archive, looking to see if TSC literature has overlooked the effectiveness of these approaches. We find that a pipeline of TSFresh followed by a rotation forest classifier, which we name FreshPRINCE, performs best. It is not state of the art, but it is significantly more accurate than nearest neighbour with dynamic time warping, and represents a reasonable benchmark for future comparison.

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arXiv2021

The Temporal Dictionary Ensemble (TDE) Classifier for Time Series Classification

Using bag of words representations of time series is a popular approach to time series classification. These algorithms involve approximating and discretising windows over a series to form words, then forming a count of words over a given dictionary. Classifiers are constructed on the resulting histograms of word counts. A 2017 evaluation of a range of time series classifiers found the bag of symbolic-fourier approximation symbols (BOSS) ensemble the best of the dictionary based classifiers. It forms one of the components of hierarchical vote collective of transformation-based ensembles (HIVE-COTE), which represents the current state of the art. Since then, several new dictionary based algorithms have been proposed that are more accurate or more scalable (or both) than BOSS. We propose a further extension of these dictionary based classifiers that combines the best elements of the others combined with a novel approach to constructing ensemble members based on an adaptive Gaussian process model of the parameter space. We demonstrate that the temporal dictionary ensemble (TDE) is more accurate than other dictionary based approaches. Furthermore, unlike the other classifiers, if we replace BOSS in HIVE-COTE with TDE, HIVE-COTE is significantly more accurate. We also show this new version of HIVE-COTE is significantly more accurate than the current best deep learning approach, a recently proposed hybrid tree ensemble and a recently introduced competitive classifier making use of highly randomised convolutional kernels. This advance represents a new state of the art for time series classification.

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arXiv2021

HIVE-COTE 2.0: a new meta ensemble for time series classification

The Hierarchical Vote Collective of Transformation-based Ensembles (HIVE-COTE) is a heterogeneous meta ensemble for time series classification. HIVE-COTE forms its ensemble from classifiers of multiple domains, including phase-independent shapelets, bag-of-words based dictionaries and phase-dependent intervals. Since it was first proposed in 2016, the algorithm has remained state of the art for accuracy on the UCR time series classification archive. Over time it has been incrementally updated, culminating in its current state, HIVE-COTE 1.0. During this time a number of algorithms have been proposed which match the accuracy of HIVE-COTE. We propose comprehensive changes to the HIVE-COTE algorithm which significantly improve its accuracy and usability, presenting this upgrade as HIVE-COTE 2.0. We introduce two novel classifiers, the Temporal Dictionary Ensemble (TDE) and Diverse Representation Canonical Interval Forest (DrCIF), which replace existing ensemble members. Additionally, we introduce the Arsenal, an ensemble of ROCKET classifiers as a new HIVE-COTE 2.0 constituent. We demonstrate that HIVE-COTE 2.0 is significantly more accurate than the current state of the art on 112 univariate UCR archive datasets and 26 multivariate UEA archive datasets.

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arXiv2020

The Canonical Interval Forest (CIF) Classifier for Time Series Classification

Time series classification (TSC) is home to a number of algorithm groups that utilise different kinds of discriminatory patterns. One of these groups describes classifiers that predict using phase dependant intervals. The time series forest (TSF) classifier is one of the most well known interval methods, and has demonstrated strong performance as well as relative speed in training and predictions. However, recent advances in other approaches have left TSF behind. TSF originally summarises intervals using three simple summary statistics. The `catch22' feature set of 22 time series features was recently proposed to aid time series analysis through a concise set of diverse and informative descriptive characteristics. We propose combining TSF and catch22 to form a new classifier, the Canonical Interval Forest (CIF). We outline additional enhancements to the training procedure, and extend the classifier to include multivariate classification capabilities. We demonstrate a large and significant improvement in accuracy over both TSF and catch22, and show it to be on par with top performers from other algorithmic classes. By upgrading the interval-based component from TSF to CIF, we also demonstrate a significant improvement in the hierarchical vote collective of transformation-based ensembles (HIVE-COTE) that combines different time series representations. HIVE-COTE using CIF is significantly more accurate on the UCR archive than any other classifier we are aware of and represents a new state of the art for TSC.

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arXiv2020

Detecting Electric Devices in 3D Images of Bags

The aviation and transport security industries face the challenge of screening high volumes of baggage for threats and contraband in the minimum time possible. Automation and semi-automation of this procedure offers the potential to increase security by detecting more threats and improve the customer experience by speeding up the process. Traditional 2D x-ray images are often extremely difficult to examine due to the fact that they are tightly packed and contain a wide variety of cluttered and occluded objects. Because of these limitations, major airports are introducing 3D x-ray Computed Tomography (CT) baggage scanning. We investigate whether we can automate the process of detecting electric devices in these 3D images of luggage. Detecting electrical devices is of particular concern as they can be used to conceal explosives. Given the massive volume of luggage that needs to be screened for this threat, the best way to automate the detection is to first filter whether a bag contains an electric device or not, and if it does, to identify the number of devices and their location. We present an algorithm, Unpack, Predict, eXtract, Repack (UXPR), which involves unpacking through segmenting the data at a range of scales using an algorithm known as the Sieve, predicting whether a segment is electrical or not based on the histogram of voxel intensities, then repacking the bag by ensembling the segments and predictions to identify the devices in bags. Through a range of experiments using data provided by ALERT (Awareness and Localization of Explosives-Related Threats) we show that this system can find a high proportion of devices with unsupervised segmentation if a similar device has been seen before, and shows promising results for detecting devices not seen at all based on the properties of its constituent parts.

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arXiv2019

A tale of two toolkits, report the second: bake off redux. Chapter 1. dictionary based classifiers

Time series classification (TSC) is the problem of learning labels from time dependent data. One class of algorithms is derived from a bag of words approach. A window is run along a series, the subseries is shortened and discretised to form a word, then features are formed from the histogram of frequency of occurrence of words. We call this type of approach to TSC dictionary based classification. We compare four dictionary based algorithms in the context of a wider project to update the great time series classification bakeoff, a comparative study published in 2017. We experimentally characterise the algorithms in terms of predictive performance, time complexity and space complexity. We find that we can improve on the previous best in terms of accuracy, but this comes at the cost of time and space. Alternatively, the same performance can be achieved with far less cost. We review the relative merits of the four algorithms before suggesting a path to possible improvement.

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