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Antoine Jacquier

Publications and source records attributed to Antoine Jacquier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Neural Slack Variables for Shape Constraints

Enforcing functional inequality constraints such as monotonicity and convexity in neural networks is a fundamental challenge in many industrial and scientific applications. Classical one-sided penalty methods, along with primal-dual methods gated by complementary slackness, provide constraint gradients only at violated locations, resulting in fragile satisfaction. Architectures that guarantee feasibility by construction, on the other hand, remain largely limited to elementary cases and impose additional inductive biases. We introduce neural slack variables, a deep learning native primal-side approach that converts constraint enforcement into a regression problem by coupling the primary network with a jointly learned auxiliary network. The auxiliary network serves as a valid target for the primary network's constraint quantities, inducing feasibility and regularity. Neural slack variables achieve zero measured violations on dense-grid monotonicity and convexity test cases, where penalty and primal-dual baselines leave residual violations, and enable arbitrage-free learning of volatility surfaces, an open industrial challenge in quantitative finance.

cs.LG

Quantitative Universal Approximation for Noisy Quantum Neural Networks

We provide here a universal approximation theorem with precise quantitative error bounds for noisy quantum neural networks. We focus on applications to Quantitative Finance, where target functions are often given as expectations. We further provide a detailed numerical analysis, testing our results on actual noisy quantum hardware.

quant-ph

Rough differential equations for volatility

We introduce a canonical way of performing the joint lift of a Brownian motion $W$ and a low-regularity adapted stochastic rough path $\mathbf{X}$, extending [Diehl, Oberhauser and Riedel (2015). A Lévy area between Brownian motion and rough paths with applications to robust nonlinear filtering and rough partial differential equations]. Applying this construction to the case where $\mathbf{X}$ is the canonical lift of a one-dimensional fractional Brownian motion (possibly correlated with $W$) completes the partial rough path of [Fukasawa and Takano (2024). A partial rough path space for rough volatility]. We use this to model rough volatility with the versatile toolkit of rough differential equations (RDEs), namely by taking the price and volatility processes to be the solution to a single RDE. We argue that our framework is already interesting when $W$ and $X$ are independent, as correlation between the price and volatility can be introduced in the dynamics. The lead-lag scheme of [Flint, Hambly, and Lyons (2016). Discretely sampled signals and the rough Hoff process] is extended to our fractional setting as an approximation theory for the rough path in the correlated case. Continuity of the solution map transforms this into a numerical scheme for RDEs. We numerically test this framework and use it to calibrate a simple new rough volatility model to market data.

q-fin.MF

Random neural networks for rough volatility

We construct a deep learning-based numerical algorithm to solve path-dependent partial differential equations arising in the context of rough volatility. Our approach is based on interpreting the PDE as a solution to an BSDE, building upon recent insights by Bayer, Qiu and Yao, and on constructing a neural network of reservoir type as originally developed by Gonon, Grigoryeva, Ortega. The reservoir approach allows us to formulate the optimisation problem as a simple least-square regression for which we prove theoretical convergence properties.

q-fin.PR

Stochastic limits of Quantum repeated measurements

We investigate quantum systems perturbed by noise in the form of repeated interactions between the system and the environment. As the number of interactions (aka time steps) tends to infinity, we show, following the works by Pellegrini, that this system converges to the solution of a Volterra stochastic differential equation. This development sets interesting future research paths at the intersection of quantum algorithms, stochastic differential equations, weak convergence and large deviations.

math.PR

Risk premium and rough volatility

One the one hand, rough volatility has been shown to provide a consistent framework to capture the properties of stock price dynamics both under the historical measure and for pricing purposes. On the other hand, market price of volatility risk is a well-studied object in Financial Economics, and empirical estimates show it to be stochastic rather than deterministic. Starting from a rough volatility model under the historical measure, we take up this challenge and provide an analysis of the impact of such a non-deterministic risk for pricing purposes.

q-fin.MF

Novelty detection on path space

We frame novelty detection on path space as a hypothesis testing problem with signature-based test statistics. Using transportation-cost inequalities of Gasteratos and Jacquier (2023), we obtain tail bounds for false positive rates that extend beyond Gaussian measures to laws of RDE solutions with smooth bounded vector fields, yielding estimates of quantiles and p-values. Exploiting the shuffle product, we derive exact formulae for smooth surrogates of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) in terms of expected signatures, leading to new one-class SVM algorithms optimising smooth CVaR objectives. We then establish lower bounds on type-$\mathrm{II}$ error for alternatives with finite first moment, giving general power bounds when the reference measure and the alternative are absolutely continuous with respect to each other. Finally, we evaluate numerically the type-$\mathrm{I}$ error and statistical power of signature-based test statistic, using synthetic anomalous diffusion data and real-world molecular biology data.

stat.ML

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Sharpe Ratios for Linear Predictive Models

We study how much the in-sample performance of trading strategies based on linear predictive models is reduced out-of-sample due to overfitting. More specifically, we compute the in- and out-of-sample means and variances of the corresponding PnLs and use these to derive a closed-form approximation for the corresponding Sharpe ratios. We find that the out-of-sample "replication ratio" diminishes for complex strategies with many assets based on many weak rather than a few strong trading signals, and increases when more training data is used. The substantial quantitative importance of these effects is illustrated with a simulation case study for commodity futures following the methodology of Gârleanu and Pedersen, and an empirical case study using the dataset compiled by Goyal, Welch and Zafirov.

q-fin.MF

On the large-time behaviour of affine Volterra processes

We show the existence of a stationary measure for a class of multidimensional stochastic Volterra systems of affine type. These processes are in general not Markovian, a shortcoming which hinders their large-time analysis. We circumvent this issue by lifting the system to a measure-valued stochastic evolution equation introduced by Cuchiero and Teichmann~\cite{CT18}, whence we retrieve the Markov property. Leveraging on the associated generalised Feller property, we extend the Krylov-Bogoliubov theorem to this infinite-dimensional setting and thus establish an approach to the existence of invariant measures. We present concrete examples, including the rough Heston model from Mathematical Finance.

math.PR

Quantum Path Signatures

We elucidate physical aspects of path signatures by formulating randomised path developments within the framework of matrix models in quantum field theory. Using tools from physics, we introduce a new family of randomised path developments and derive corresponding loop equations. We then interpret unitary randomised path developments as time evolution operators on a Hilbert space of qubits. This leads to a definition of a quantum path signature feature map and associated quantum signature kernel through a quantum circuit construction. In the case of the Gaussian matrix model, we study a random ensemble of Pauli strings and formulate a quantum algorithm to compute such kernel.

quant-ph

Operator Deep Smoothing for Implied Volatility

We devise a novel method for nowcasting implied volatility based on neural operators. Better known as implied volatility smoothing in the financial industry, nowcasting of implied volatility means constructing a smooth surface that is consistent with the prices presently observed on a given option market. Option price data arises highly dynamically in ever-changing spatial configurations, which poses a major limitation to foundational machine learning approaches using classical neural networks. While large models in language and image processing deliver breakthrough results on vast corpora of raw data, in financial engineering the generalization from big historical datasets has been hindered by the need for considerable data pre-processing. In particular, implied volatility smoothing has remained an instance-by-instance, hands-on process both for neural network-based and traditional parametric strategies. Our general operator deep smoothing approach, instead, directly maps observed data to smoothed surfaces. We adapt the graph neural operator architecture to do so with high accuracy on ten years of raw intraday S&P 500 options data, using a single model instance. The trained operator adheres to critical no-arbitrage constraints and is robust with respect to subsampling of inputs (occurring in practice in the context of outlier removal). We provide extensive historical benchmarks and showcase the generalization capability of our approach in a comparison with classical neural networks and SVI, an industry standard parametrization for implied volatility. The operator deep smoothing approach thus opens up the use of neural networks on large historical datasets in financial engineering.

q-fin.CP

Rough Bergomi turns grey

We propose a tractable extension of the rough Bergomi model, replacing the fractional Brownian motion with a generalised grey Brownian motion, which we show to be reminiscent of models with stochastic volatility of volatility. This extension breaks away from the log-Normal assumption of rough Bergomi, thereby making it a viable suggestion for the Equity Holy Grail -- the joint SPX/VIX options calibration. For this new (class of) model(s), we provide semi-closed and asymptotic formulae for SPX and VIX options and show numerically its potential advantages as well as calibration results.

q-fin.PR

Universal Approximation Theorem and error bounds for quantum neural networks and quantum reservoirs

Universal approximation theorems are the foundations of classical neural networks, providing theoretical guarantees that the latter are able to approximate maps of interest. Recent results have shown that this can also be achieved in a quantum setting, whereby classical functions can be approximated by parameterised quantum circuits. We provide here precise error bounds for specific classes of functions and extend these results to the interesting new setup of randomised quantum circuits, mimicking classical reservoir neural networks. Our results show in particular that a quantum neural network with $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$ weights and $\mathcal{O} (\lceil \log_2(\varepsilon^{-1}) \rceil)$ qubits suffices to achieve accuracy $\varepsilon>0$ when approximating functions with integrable Fourier transform.

quant-ph

Deep learning interpretability for rough volatility

Deep learning methods have become a widespread toolbox for pricing and calibration of financial models. While they often provide new directions and research results, their `black box' nature also results in a lack of interpretability. We provide a detailed interpretability analysis of these methods in the context of rough volatility - a new class of volatility models for Equity and FX markets. Our work sheds light on the neural network learned inverse map between the rough volatility model parameters, seen as mathematical model inputs and network outputs, and the resulting implied volatility across strikes and maturities, seen as mathematical model outputs and network inputs. This contributes to building a solid framework for a safer use of neural networks in this context and in quantitative finance more generally.

q-fin.CP

Portfolio optimisation with options

We develop a new analysis for portfolio optimisation with options, tackling the three fundamental issues with this problem: asymmetric options' distributions, high dimensionality and dependence structure. To do so, we propose a new dependency matrix, built upon conditional probabilities between options' payoffs, and show how it can be computed in closed form given a copula structure of the underlying asset prices. The empirical evidence we provide highlights that this approach is efficient, fast and easily scalable to large portfolios of (mixed) options.

q-fin.PM

Propagation of a carbon price in a credit portfolio through macroeconomic factors

We study how the climate transition through a low-carbon economy, implemented by carbon pricing, propagates in a credit portfolio and precisely describe how carbon price dynamics affects credit risk measures such as probability of default, expected and unexpected losses. We adapt a stochastic multisectoral model to take into account the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions costs of both sectoral firms' production and consumption, as well as sectoral household's consumption. GHG emissions costs are the product of carbon prices, provided by the NGFS transition scenarios, and of GHG emissions. For each sector, our model yields the sensitivity of firms' production and households' consumption to carbon price and the relationships between sectors. It allows us to analyze the short-term effects of the carbon price as opposed to standard IAM (such as REMIND), which are deterministic and only capture long-term trends. Finally, we use a DCF methodology to compute firms' values which we then combine with a structural credit risk model to describe how the carbon price impacts credit risk measures. We obtain that the carbon price distorts the distribution of the firm's value, increases banking fees charged to clients (materialized by the bank provisions), and reduces banks' profitability (translated by the economic capital). In addition, the randomness we introduce provides extra flexibility to take into account uncertainties on the productivity and on the different transition scenarios. We also compute the sensitivities of the credit risk measures with respect to changes in the carbon price, yielding further criteria for a more accurate assessment of climate transition risk in a credit portfolio. This work provides a preliminary methodology to calculate the evolution of credit risk measures of a credit portfolio, starting from a given climate transition scenario described by a carbon price.

q-fin.RM

Interest rate convexity in a Gaussian framework

The contributions of this paper are twofold: we define and investigate the properties of a short rate model driven by a general Gaussian Volterra process and, after defining precisely a notion of convexity adjustment, derive explicit formulae for it.

q-fin.PR

Functional quantization of rough volatility and applications to volatility derivatives

We develop a product functional quantization of rough volatility. Since the quantizers can be computed offline, this new technique, built on the insightful works by Luschgy and Pages, becomes a strong competitor in the new arena of numerical tools for rough volatility. We concentrate our numerical analysis to pricing VIX Futures in the rough Bergomi model and compare our results to other recently suggested benchmarks.

q-fin.PR