arXiv subjects

Antoine Lejay

Publications and source records attributed to Antoine Lejay.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Maximum likelihood estimator for skew Brownian motion: the convergence rate

We give a thorough description of the asymptotic property of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the skewness parameter of a Skew Brownian Motion (SBM). Thanks to recent results on the Central Limit Theorem of the rate of convergence of estimators for the SBM, we prove a conjecture left open that the MLE has asymptotically a mixed normal distribution involving the local time with a rate of convergence of order $1/4$. We also give a series expansion of the MLE and study the asymptotic behavior of the score and its derivatives, as well as their variation with the skewness parameter. In particular, we exhibit a specific behavior when the SBM is actually a Brownian motion, and quantify the explosion of the coefficients of the expansion when the skewness parameter is close to $-1$ or $1$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Beyond the delta method

We give an asymptotic development of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), or any other estimator defined implicitly, in a way which involves the limiting behavior of the score and its higher-order derivatives. This development, which is explicitly computable, gives some insights about the non-asymptotic behavior of the renormalized MLE and its departure from its limit. We highlight that the results hold whenever the score and its derivative converge, including to non Gaussian limits. Our approach is based on an asymptotic implicit function theorem, inspired from perturbative approaches.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

General diffusion processes as the limit of time-space Markov chains

We prove the convergence of the law of grid-valued random walks, which can be seen as time-space Markov chains, to the law of a general diffusion process. This includes processes with sticky features, reflecting or absorbing boundaries and skew behavior. We prove that the convergence occurs at any rate strictly inferior to $(1/4) \wedge (1/p)$ in terms of the maximum cell size of the grid, for any $p$-Wasserstein distance. We also show that it is possible to achieve any rate strictly inferior to $(1/2) \wedge (2/p)$ if the grid is adapted to the speed measure of the diffusion, which is optimal for $p\le 4 $. This result allows us to set up asymptotically optimal approximation schemes for general diffusion processes. Last, we experiment numerically on diffusions that exhibit various features.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

Constructing general rough differential equations through flow approximations

The non-linear sewing lemma constructs flows of rough differential equations from a braod class of approximations called almost flows. We consider a class of almost flows that could be approximated by solutions of ordinary differential equations, in the spirit of the backward error analysis. Mixing algebra and analysis, a Taylor formula with remainder and a composition formula are central in the expansion analysis. With a suitable algebraic structure on the non-smooth vector fields to be integrated, we recover in a single framework several results regarding high-order expansions for various kind of driving paths. We also extend the notion of driving rough path. We also introduce as an example a new family of branched rough paths, called aromatic rough paths modeled after aromatic Butcher series.

math.CA↗

arXiv2021

The non-linear sewing lemma II: Lipschitz continuous formulation

We give an unified framework to solve rough differential equations. Based on flows, our approach unifies the former ones developed by Davie, Friz-Victoir and Bailleul. The main idea is to build a flow from the iterated product of an almost flow which can be viewed as a good approximation of the solution at small time. In this second article, we give some tractable conditions under which the limit flow is Lipschitz continuous and its links with uniqueness of solutions of rough differential equations. We also give perturbation formulas on almost flows which link the former constructions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

The non-linear sewing lemma III: Stability and generic properties

Solutions of Rough Differential Equations (RDE) may be defined as paths whose increments are close to an approximation of the associated flow. They are constructed through a discrete scheme using a non-linear sewing lemma. In this article, we show that such solutions also solve a fixed point problem by exhibiting a suitable functional. Convergence then follows from consistency and stability, two notions that are adapted to our framework. In addition, we show that uniqueness and convergence of discrete approximations is a generic property, meaning that it holds excepted for a set of vector fields and starting points which is of Baire first category. At last, we show that Brownian flows are almost surely unique solutions to RDE associated to Lipschitz flows. The later property yields almost sure convergence of Milstein schemes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Maximum likelihood drift estimation for a threshold diffusion

We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold diffusion is called drifted Oscillating Brownian motion.For this continuously observed diffusion, the maximum likelihood estimator coincide with a quasi-likelihood estimator with constant diffusion term. We show that this estimator is the limit, as observations become dense in time, of the (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimator based on discrete observations. In long time, the asymptotic behaviors of the positive and negative occupation times rule the ones of the estimators. Differently from most known results in the literature, we do not restrict ourselves to the ergodic framework: indeed, depending on the signs of the drift, the process may be ergodic, transient or null recurrent. For each regime, we establish whether or not the estimators are consistent; if they are, we prove the convergence in long time of the properly rescaled difference of the estimators towards a normal or mixed normal distribution. These theoretical results are backed by numerical simulations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

The non-linear sewing lemma I : weak formulation

We introduce a new framework to deal with rough differential equations based on flows and their approximations. Our main result is to prove that measurable flows exist under weak conditions, even solutions to the corresponding rough differential equations are not unique. We show that under additional conditions of the approximation, there exists a unique Lipschitz flow. Then, a perturbation formula is given. Finally, we link our approach to the additive, multiplicative sewing lemmas and the rough Euler scheme.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

A threshold model for local volatility: evidence of leverage and mean reversion effects on historical data

In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage and mean-reversion effects in the dynamics of the prices. This model exhibits a regime switch in the dynamics accordingly to a certain threshold. It can be seen as a continuous-time version of the Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model. We propose an estimation procedure for the volatility and drift coefficients as well as for the threshold level. Parameters estimated on the daily prices of 348 stocks of NYSE and S\&P 500, on different time windows, show consistent empirical evidence for leverageeffects. Mean-reversion effects are also detected, most markedly in crisis periods.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2017

Sensitivity of rough differential equations: an approach through the Omega lemma

The It{ô} map assigns the solution of a Rough Differential Equation, a generalization of an Ordinary Differential Equation driven by an irregular path, when existence and uniqueness hold. By studying how a path is transformed through the vector field which is integrated, we prove that the It{ô} map is H{ö}lder or Lipschitz continuous with respect to all its parameters. This result unifies and weaken the hypotheses of the regularity results already established in the literature.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Statistical estimation of the Oscillating Brownian Motion

We study the asymptotic behavior of estimators of a two-valued, discontinuous diffusion coefficient in a Stochastic Differential Equation, called an Oscillating Brownian Motion. Using the relation of the latter process with the Skew Brownian Motion, we propose two natural consistent estimators, which are variants of the integrated volatility estimator and take the occupation times into account. We show the stable convergence of the renormalized errors' estimations toward some Gaussian mixture, possibly corrected by a term that depends on the local time. These limits stem from the lack of ergodicity as well as the behavior of the local time at zero of the process. We test both estimators on simulated processes, finding a complete agreement with the theoretical predictions.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

The snapping out Brownian motion

We give a probabilistic representation of a one-dimensional diffusion equation where the solution is discontinuous at $0$ with a jump proportional to its flux. This kind of interface condition is usually seen as a semi-permeable barrier. For this, we use a process called here the snapping out Brownian motion, whose properties are studied. As this construction is motivated by applications, for example, in brain imaging or in chemistry, a simulation scheme is also provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2011

Is a Brownian skew?

We study the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator corresponding to the observation of a trajectory of a Skew Brownian motion, through a uniform time discretization. We characterize the speed of convergence and the limiting distribution when the step size goes to zero, which in this case are non-classical, under the null hypothesis of the Skew Brownian motion being an usual Brownian motion. This allows to design a test on the skewness parameter. We show that numerical simulations that can be easily performed to estimate the skewness parameter, and provide an application in Biology.

math.PR↗

arXiv2010

Simulation of diffusions by means of importance sampling paradigm

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new Monte Carlo method based on importance sampling techniques for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The main idea is to combine random walk on squares or rectangles methods with importance sampling techniques. The first interest of this approach is that the weights can be easily computed from the density of the one-dimensional Brownian motion. Compared to the Euler scheme this method allows one to obtain a more accurate approximation of diffusions when one has to consider complex boundary conditions. The method provides also an interesting alternative to performing variance reduction techniques and simulating rare events.

math.PR↗

arXiv2009

Global existence for rough differential equations under linear growth conditions

We prove existence of global solutions for differential equations driven by a geometric rough path under the condition that the vector fields have linear growth. We show by an explicit counter-example that the linear growth condition is not sufficient if the driving rough path is not geometric. This settle a long-standing open question in the theory of rough paths. So in the geometric setting we recover the usual sufficient condition for differential equation. The proof rely on a simple mapping of the differential equation from the Euclidean space to a manifold to obtain a rough differential equation with bounded coefficients.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

Estimation of the Brownian dimension of a continuous Itô process

In this paper, we consider a $d$-dimensional continuous Itô process which is observed at $n$ regularly spaced times on a given time interval $[0,T]$. This process is driven by a multidimensional Wiener process and our aim is to provide asymptotic statistical procedures which give the minimal dimension of the driving Wiener process, which is between 0 (a pure drift) and $d$. We exhibit several different procedures, all similar to asymptotic testing hypotheses.

math.ST↗

arXiv2007

On the constructions of the skew Brownian motion

This article summarizes the various ways one may use to construct the Skew Brownian motion, and shows their connections. Recent applications of this process in modelling and numerical simulation motivates this survey. This article ends with a brief account of related results, extensions and applications of the Skew Brownian motion.

math.PR↗

arXiv2006

A scheme for simulating one-dimensional diffusion processes with discontinuous coefficients

The aim of this article is to provide a scheme for simulating diffusion processes evolving in one-dimensional discontinuous media. This scheme does not rely on smoothing the coefficients that appear in the infinitesimal generator of the diffusion processes, but uses instead an exact description of the behavior of their trajectories when they reach the points of discontinuity. This description is supplied with the local comparison of the trajectories of the diffusion processes with those of a skew Brownian motion.

math.PR↗