arXiv subjects

Anton Borg

Publications and source records attributed to Anton Borg.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Two-Stage Forecasting System for CPU Workload Prediction in Private Clouds

Accurate cloud resource forecasting is essential for proactive resource provisioning, maintaining Quality of Service (QoS), and reducing operational costs in dynamic cloud environments. The existing forecasting approaches predominantly estimate future CPU workload directly from historical resource traces, which often overlook the relationship between customer service demand and subsequent resource consumption. This study proposes a two-stage integrated forecasting model that explicitly models this dependency by first forecasting customer service requests, expressed as Transactions Per Second (TPS), and subsequently estimating future CPU workload from the TPS forecast. Both the forecasting component and resource prediction component employed the XGBoost model within a cascaded learning architecture, complemented by adaptive online retraining using an expanding-window strategy to address concept drift in continuously evolving cloud workloads. The proposed work was evaluated using real-world traces collected from a private cloud environment comprising ten applications. Experimental results demonstrate robust forecasting performance by achieving Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) below $7\%$ for most applications, with the best-performing application achieving an MAE of $0.7372$, RMSE of $1.1866$, SMAPE of $3.57\%$, and an R2 of $0.9185$. Horizon-wise drift analysis confirmed stable recursive forecasting behavior with controlled error accumulation across a 60-step prediction horizon. Compared with the conventional direct CPU forecasting method, the proposed two-stage integrated model gives improved forecasting robustness, computational efficiency, and interpretability, making it well-suited for proactive resource management and intelligent auto-scaling in cloud computing environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Machine Learning-Based Detection of MCP Attacks

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) is a new and emerging technology that extends the functionality of large language models, improving workflows but also exposing users to a new attack surface. Several studies have highlighted related security flaws, but MCP attack detection remains underexplored. To address this research gap, this study develops and evaluates a range of supervised machine learning approaches, including both traditional and deep-learning models. We evaluated the systems on the detection of malicious MCP tool descriptions in two scenarios: (1) a binary classification task distinguishing malicious from benign tools, and (2) a multiclass classification task identifying the attack type while separating benign from malicious tools. In addition to the machine learning models, we compared a rule-based approach that serves as a baseline. The results indicate that several of the developed models achieved 100\% F1-score on the binary classification task. In the multiclass scenario, the SVC and BERT models performed best, achieving F1 scores of 90.56\% and 88.33\%, respectively. Confusion matrices were also used to visualize the full distribution of predictions often missed by traditional metrics, providing additional insight for selecting the best-fitting solution in real-world scenarios. This study presents an addition to the MCP defence area, showing that machine learning models can perform exceptionally well in separating malicious and benign data points. To apply the solution in a live environment, a middleware was developed to classify which MCP tools are safe to use before execution, and block the ones that are not safe. Furthermore, the study shows that these models can outperform traditional rule-based solutions currently in use in the field.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Hierarchical Delay Attribution Classification using Unstructured Text in Train Management Systems

EU directives stipulate a systematic follow-up of train delays. In Sweden, the Swedish Transport Administration registers and assigns an appropriate delay attribution code. However, this delay attribution code is assigned manually, which is a complex task. In this paper, a machine learning-based decision support for assigning delay attribution codes based on event descriptions is investigated. The text is transformed using TF-IDF, and two models, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine, are evaluated against a random uniform classifier and the classification performance of the Swedish Transport Administration. Further, the problem is modeled as both a hierarchical and flat approach. The results indicate that a hierarchical approach performs better than a flat approach. Both approaches perform better than the random uniform classifier but perform worse than the manual classification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Seed selection for information cascade in multilayer networks

Information spreading is an interesting field in the domain of online social media. In this work, we are investigating how well different seed selection strategies affect the spreading processes simulated using independent cascade model on eighteen multilayer social networks. Fifteen networks are built based on the user interaction data extracted from Facebook public pages and tree of them are multilayer networks downloaded from public repository (two of them being Twitter networks). The results indicate that various state of the art seed selection strategies for single-layer networks like K-Shell or VoteRank do not perform so well on multilayer networks and are outperformed by Degree Centrality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Finding Influential Users in Social Media Using Association Rule Learning

Influential users play an important role in online social networks since users tend to have an impact on one other. Therefore, the proposed work analyzes users and their behavior in order to identify influential users and predict user participation. Normally, the success of a social media site is dependent on the activity level of the participating users. For both online social networking sites and individual users, it is of interest to find out if a topic will be interesting or not. In this article, we propose association learning to detect relationships between users. In order to verify the findings, several experiments were executed based on social network analysis, in which the most influential users identified from association rule learning were compared to the results from Degree Centrality and Page Rank Centrality. The results clearly indicate that it is possible to identify the most influential users using association rule learning. In addition, the results also indicate a lower execution time compared to state-of-the-art methods.

cs.SI↗