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Anton Strezhnev

Publications and source records attributed to Anton Strezhnev.

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Omitted variable bias sensitivity analysis with clustered treatment assignment

Cinelli and Hazlett (2020) develops a sensitivity analysis method for the linear regression model that parameterizes omitted variable bias in terms of two partial $R^2$ parameters capturing the residual variation explained by an omitted confounder in the treatment and outcome respectively. This method is often applied to regressions fit to unit-level data when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation -- as in clustered observational designs. This paper shows that despite the numerical equivalence of the unit-level regression and an appropriately weighted cluster-aggregated regression for estimating the treatment effect, the sensitivity analysis procedure yields different conclusions depending on the chosen level of analysis. The outcome-confounder partial $R^2$ reflects both between- and within- group variation but the latter is irrelevant to omitted variable bias as it by construction cannot be explained by a group-level confounder. Straightforward corrections to the robustness value and the extreme scenario analysis from the unit-level regression using Pearson's partial-$η$ recover equivalence between these two approaches. The paper concludes with a point of caution when benchmarking against unit-level covariates and recommends always including cluster-level averages of these covariates as regressors (Mundlak, 1978).

stat.ME

Decomposing Triple-Differences Regression under Staggered Adoption

The triple-differences (TD) design is a popular identification strategy for causal effects in settings where researchers do not believe the parallel trends assumption of conventional difference-in-differences (DiD) is satisfied. TD designs augment the conventional 2x2 DiD with a "placebo" stratum -- observations that are nested in the same units and time periods but are known to be entirely unaffected by the treatment. However, many TD applications go beyond this simple 2x2x2 and use observations on many units in many "placebo" strata across multiple time periods. A popular estimator for this setting is the triple-differences regression (TDR) fixed-effects estimator -- an extension of the common "two-way fixed effects" estimator for DiD. This paper decomposes the TDR estimator into its component two-group/two-period/two-strata triple-differences and illustrates how interpreting this parameter causally in settings with arbitrary staggered adoption requires strong effect homogeneity assumptions as many placebo DiDs incorporate observations under treatment. The decomposition clarifies the implied identifying variation behind the triple-differences regression estimator and suggests researchers should be cautious when implementing these estimators in settings more complex than the 2x2x2 case. Alternative approaches that only incorporate "clean placebos" such as direct imputation of the counterfactual may be more appropriate. The paper concludes by demonstrating the utility of this imputation estimator in an application of the "gravity model" to the estimation of the effect of the WTO/GATT on international trade.

stat.ME