arXiv subjects

Antonio D'Alessandro

Publications and source records attributed to Antonio D'Alessandro.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Causal Survival Analysis in Platform Trials with Non-Concurrent Controls

Platform trials allow treatment arms to enter and exit over time while maintaining a shared control arm, yielding concurrent and non-concurrent controls (NCC). Pooling NCC is often motivated as a strategy to improve statistical efficiency, but it is unclear which estimand is targeted, what assumptions justify identification and estimation, and when precision gains are achievable; these questions are further complicated by time-to-event/survival data. Motivated by the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial (ACTT) platform trial with time to recovery as the primary endpoint, we develop an estimand-first causal survival framework targeting the treatment-specific counterfactual survival curve in the concurrent population and the corresponding functionals including the concurrent restricted mean survival time (RMST). We give nonparametric identification results and formalize conditions that justify pooling using NCC. We study covariate-adjusted outcome-regression (OR) and doubly robust (DR) estimators for the concurrent RMST, comparing concurrent-only versions to pooled-control versions. Pooling improves precision for OR estimators only when the pooling assumption holds and parametric hazard models are correctly specified; otherwise, pooling can induce bias. Moreover, in certain settings, pooling NCC yields no efficiency gain for the DR estimator. Overall, the most robust route to improve precision is to target concurrent causal survival estimands and use a covariate-adjusted DR estimation that uses only concurrent controls. An ACTT application corroborates these results.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

The Counterfactual Combine: A Causal Framework for Player Evaluation

Evaluating sports players based on their performance shares core challenges with evaluating healthcare providers based on patient outcomes. Drawing on recent advances in healthcare provider profiling, we cast sports player evaluation within a rigorous causal inference framework and define a flexible class of causal player evaluation estimands. Using stochastic interventions, we compare player success rates on repeated tasks (such as field goal attempts or plate appearance) to counterfactual success rates had those same attempts been randomly reassigned to players according to prespecified reference distributions. This setup encompasses direct and indirect standardization parameters familiar from healthcare provider profiling, and we additionally propose a "performance above random replacement" estimand designed for interpretability in sports settings. We develop doubly robust estimators for these evaluation metrics based on modern semiparametric statistical methods, with a focus on Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation, and incorporate machine learning methods to capture complex relationships driving player performance. We illustrate our framework in detailed case studies of field goal kickers in the National Football League and batters in Major League Baseball, highlighting how different causal estimands yield distinct interpretations and insights about player performance.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Modern Causal Inference Approaches to Improve Power for Subgroup Analysis in Randomized Controlled Trials

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often include subgroup analyses to assess whether treatment effects vary across pre-specified patient populations. However, these analyses frequently suffer from small sample sizes which limit the power to detect heterogeneous effects. Power can be improved by leveraging predictors of the outcome -- i.e., through covariate adjustment -- as well as by borrowing external data from similar RCTs or observational studies. The benefits of covariate adjustment may be limited when the trial sample is small. Borrowing external data can increase the effective sample size and improve power, but it introduces two key challenges: (i) integrating data across sources can lead to model misspecification, and (ii) practical violations of the positivity assumption -- where the probability of receiving the target treatment is near-zero for some covariate profiles in the external data -- can lead to extreme inverse-probability weights and unstable inferences, ultimately negating potential power gains. To account for these shortcomings, we present an approach to improving power in pre-planned subgroup analyses of small RCTs that leverages both baseline predictors and external data. We propose debiased estimators that accommodate parametric, machine learning, and nonparametric Bayesian methods. To address practical positivity violations, we introduce three estimators: a covariate-balancing approach, an automated debiased machine learning (DML) estimator, and a calibrated DML estimator. We show improved power in various simulations and offer practical recommendations for the application of the proposed methods. Finally, we apply them to evaluate the effectiveness of citalopram for negative symptoms in first-episode schizophrenia patients across subgroups defined by duration of untreated psychosis, using data from two small RCTs.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Multiscale X-ray computed tomography of standard optical fibers

Optical fiber technologies enable high-speed communication, medical imaging, and advanced sensing. Among the techniques for the characterization of optical fibers, Xray computed tomography has recently emerged as a versatile non-destructive tool for mapping their refractive index variations in 3D. In this study, we present a multiscale characterization of standard optical fibers. We carry out an intercomparison of three tomography setups: classical computed microtomography, X-ray microscopy, and nanotomography. In each method, our analysis highlights the trade-offs between resolution, field of view, and segmentation efficiency. Additionally, we integrate deep learning segmentation thresholding to improve the image analysis process. Thanks to its large field of view, microtomography with classical sources is ideal for the analysis of relatively long fiber spans, where a low spatial resolution is acceptable. The other way around, nanotomography has the highest spatial resolution, but it is limited to very small fiber samples, e.g., fiber tapers and nanofibers, which have diameters of the order of a few microns. Finally, X-ray microscopy provides a good compromise between the sample size fitting the device's field of view and the spatial resolution needed for properly imaging the inner features of the fiber. Specifically, thanks to its practicality in terms of costs and cumbersomeness, we foresee that the latter will provide the most suitable choice for the quality control of fiber drawing in real-time, e.g., using the "One-Minute Tomographies with Fast Acquisition Scanning Technology" developed by Zeiss. In this regard, the combination of X-ray computed tomography and artificial intelligence-driven enhancements is poised to revolutionize fiber characterization, by enabling precise monitoring and adaptive control in fiber manufacturing.

physics.app-ph↗