arXiv subjects

Antonio L. Alfeo

Publications and source records attributed to Antonio L. Alfeo.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing Alignment and Stability of Feature Importance Explanations via Weight of Evidence

Feature importance Methods (FIMs) are widely used in Explainable AI to interpret model predictions, yet attribution scores alone often provide limited insight into the underlying reasoning process. In this work, we introduce a novel perspective by embedding FIMs within a hypothesis-testing framework based on Weight of Evidence (WoE). We quantify how strongly the observed evidence supports any given hypothesis on feature importance. The reference hypothesis can stem from domain knowledge, ground truth, or be derived from the FIM itself. This formulation enables a principled evaluation of FIMs, capturing both their alignment with prior knowledge and their variability. We further provide theoretical results linking WoE to attribution variance. Empirical results shows the applicability and flexibility of our strategy analyzing LIME and SHAP explanations in settings with different reference hypotheses. Overall, our framework offers a complementary tool for assessing FIMs through a contrastive, evidence-based lens.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Assessing Refugees' Integration via Spatio-temporal Similarities of Mobility and Calling Behaviors

In Turkey the increasing tension, due to the presence of 3.4 million Syrian refugees, demands the formulation of effective integration policies. Moreover, their design requires tools aimed at understanding the integration of refugees despite the complexity of this phenomenon. In this work, we propose a set of metrics aimed at providing insights and assessing the integration of Syrians refugees, by analyzing a real-world Call Details Records (CDRs) dataset including calls from refugees and locals in Turkey throughout 2017. Specifically, we exploit the similarity between refugees' and locals' spatial and temporal behaviors, in terms of communication and mobility in order to assess integration dynamics. Together with the already known methods for data analysis, we use a novel computational approach to analyze spatiotemporal patterns: Computational Stigmergy, a bio-inspired scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. Computational Stigmergy associates each sample to a virtual pheromone deposit (mark). Marks in spatiotemporal proximity are aggregated into functional structures called trails, which summarize the spatiotemporal patterns in data and allows computing the similarity between different patterns. According to our results, collective mobility and behavioral similarity with locals have great potential as measures of integration, since they are: (i) correlated with the amount of interaction with locals; (ii) an effective proxy for refugee's economic capacity, thus refugee's potential employment; and (iii) able to capture events that may disrupt the integration phenomena, such as social tensions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Detecting Permanent and Intermittent Purchase Hotspots via Computational Stigmergy

The analysis of credit card transactions allows gaining new insights into the spending occurrences and mobility behavior of large numbers of individuals at an unprecedented scale. However, unfolding such spatiotemporal patterns at a community level implies a non-trivial system modeling and parametrization, as well as, a proper representation of the temporal dynamic. In this work we address both those issues by means of a novel computational technique, i.e. computational stigmergy. By using computational stigmergy each sample position is associated with a digital pheromone deposit, which aggregates with other deposits according to their spatiotemporal proximity. By processing transactions data with computational stigmergy, it is possible to identify high-density areas (hotspots) occurring in different time and days, as well as, analyze their consistency over time. Indeed, a hotspot can be permanent, i.e. present throughout the period of observation, or intermittent, i.e. present only in certain time and days due to community level occurrences (e.g. nightlife). Such difference is not only spatial (where the hotspot occurs) and temporal (when the hotspot occurs) but affects also which people visit the hotspot. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world dataset containing the credit card transaction of 60k users between 2014 and 2015.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Stigmergy-based modeling to discover urban activity patterns from positioning data

Positioning data offer a remarkable source of information to analyze crowds urban dynamics. However, discovering urban activity patterns from the emergent behavior of crowds involves complex system modeling. An alternative approach is to adopt computational techniques belonging to the emergent paradigm, which enables self-organization of data and allows adaptive analysis. Specifically, our approach is based on stigmergy. By using stigmergy each sample position is associated with a digital pheromone deposit, which progressively evaporates and aggregates with other deposits according to their spatiotemporal proximity. Based on this principle, we exploit positioning data to identify high density areas (hotspots) and characterize their activity over time. This characterization allows the comparison of dynamics occurring in different days, providing a similarity measure exploitable by clustering techniques. Thus, we cluster days according to their activity behavior, discovering unexpected urban activity patterns. As a case study, we analyze taxi traces in New York City during 2015.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage

A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow, and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task. With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity. Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics. Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study, we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.

cs.AI↗