arXiv subjects

Antonio R. Paiva

Publications and source records attributed to Antonio R. Paiva.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Dynamic Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles from Spatio-Temporal Probabilistic Occupancy Heatmaps

Accurately assessing collision risk in dynamic traffic scenarios is a crucial requirement for trajectory planning in autonomous vehicles~(AVs) and enables a comprehensive safety evaluation of automated driving systems. To that end, this paper presents a novel probabilistic occupancy risk assessment~(PORA) metric. It uses spatiotemporal heatmaps as probabilistic occupancy predictions of surrounding traffic participants and estimates the risk of a collision along an AV's planned trajectory based on potential vehicle interactions. The use of probabilistic occupancy allows PORA to account for the uncertainty in future trajectories and velocities of traffic participants in the risk estimates. The risk from potential vehicle interactions is then further adjusted through a Cox model\edit{,} which considers the relative \edit{motion} between the AV and surrounding traffic participants. We demonstrate that the proposed approach enhances the accuracy of collision risk assessment in dynamic traffic scenarios, resulting in safer vehicle controllers, and provides a robust framework for real-time decision-making in autonomous driving systems. From evaluation in Monte Carlo simulations, PORA is shown to be more effective at accurately characterizing collision risk compared to other safety surrogate measures. Keywords: Dynamic Risk Assessment, Autonomous Vehicle, Probabilistic Occupancy, Driving Safety

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Second-Order Time to Collision With Non-Static Acceleration

We propose a second-order time to collision (TTC) considering non-static acceleration and turning with realistic assumptions. This is equivalent to considering that the steering wheel is held at a fixed angle with constant pressure on the gas or brake pedal and matches the well-known bicycle model. Past works that use acceleration to compute TTC consider only longitudinally aligned acceleration. We additionally develop and present the Second-Order Time-to-Collision Algorithm using Region-based search (STAR) to efficiently compute the proposed second-order TTC and overcome the current limitations of the existing built-in functions. The evaluation of the algorithm in terms of error and computation time is conducted through statistical analysis. Through numerical simulations and publicly accessible real-world trajectory datasets, we show that the proposed second-order TTC with non-static acceleration is superior at reflecting accurate collision times, especially when turning is involved.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Modeling and mitigation of occupational safety risks in dynamic industrial environments

Identifying and mitigating safety risks is paramount in a number of industries. In addition to guidelines and best practices, many industries already have safety management systems (SMSs) designed to monitor and reinforce good safety behaviors. The analytic capabilities to analyze the data acquired through such systems, however, are still lacking in terms of their ability to robustly quantify risks posed by various occupational hazards. Moreover, best practices and modern SMSs are unable to account for dynamically evolving environments/behavioral characteristics commonly found in many industrial settings. This article proposes a method to address these issues by enabling continuous and quantitative assessment of safety risks in a data-driven manner. The backbone of our method is an intuitive hierarchical probabilistic model that explains sparse and noisy safety data collected by a typical SMS. A fully Bayesian approach is developed to calibrate this model from safety data in an online fashion. Thereafter, the calibrated model holds necessary information that serves to characterize risk posed by different safety hazards. Additionally, the proposed model can be leveraged for automated decision making, for instance solving resource allocation problems -- targeted towards risk mitigation -- that are often encountered in resource-constrained industrial environments. The methodology is rigorously validated on a simulated test-bed and its scalability is demonstrated on real data from large maintenance projects at a petrochemical plant.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Methodology for Testing and Evaluation of Safety Analytics Approaches

There has been a significant increase in the development of data-driven safety analytics approaches in recent years. In light of these advances it has become imperative to evaluate such approaches in a principled way to determine their merits and limitations. To that end, we propose an evaluation methodology underpinned by a simulated environment that allows for a comprehensive assessment of safety analytics approaches. While assessing those approaches with historical field data is undoubtedly important, such an assessment has limited statistical power because it corresponds to only one realization. The proposed methodology enables validation over a large number of realizations, thereby circumventing the statistical limitations of evaluation on historical data. Moreover, by using a simulated environment one is able to clearly distinguish between the variability in the observed data and differences in performance between safety approaches. A simulated environment does this by comparing the approaches under controlled circumstances, resulting in a fair and systematic evaluation of the potential long-term benefits. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology via a case study that compares a few candidate safety analytics approaches. These approaches differ in how they assimilate field safety data to assess safety risk and suggest mitigative actions. We show that the proposed methodology indeed reveals useful insights and quantifies the relative merits and drawbacks of the different approaches, which would be otherwise difficult to objectively determine in a real-world scenario.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

Inferring Microbial Biomass Yield and Cell Weight using Probabilistic Macrochemical Modeling

Growth rates and biomass yields are key descriptors used in microbiology studies to understand how microbial species respond to changes in the environment. Of these, biomass yield estimates are typically obtained using cell counts and measurements of the feed substrate. These quantities are perturbed with measurement noise however. Perhaps most crucially, estimating biomass from cell counts, as needed to assess yields, relies on an assumed cell weight. Noise and discrepancies on these assumptions can lead to significant changes in conclusions regarding the microbes' response. This article proposes a methodology to address these challenges using probabilistic macrochemical models of microbial growth. It is shown that a model can be developed to fully use the experimental data, relax assumptions and greatly improve robustness to a priori estimates of the cell weight, and provides uncertainty estimates of key parameters. This methodology is demonstrated in the context of a specific case study and the estimation characteristics are validated in several scenarios using synthetically generated microbial growth data.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2020

Advancing from Predictive Maintenance to Intelligent Maintenance with AI and IIoT

As Artificial Intelligent (AI) technology advances and increasingly large amounts of data become readily available via various Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) projects, we evaluate the state of the art of predictive maintenance approaches and propose our innovative framework to improve the current practice. The paper first reviews the evolution of reliability modelling technology in the past 90 years and discusses major technologies developed in industry and academia. We then introduce the next generation maintenance framework - Intelligent Maintenance, and discuss its key components. This AI and IIoT based Intelligent Maintenance framework is composed of (1) latest machine learning algorithms including probabilistic reliability modelling with deep learning, (2) real-time data collection, transfer, and storage through wireless smart sensors, (3) Big Data technologies, (4) continuously integration and deployment of machine learning models, (5) mobile device and AR/VR applications for fast and better decision-making in the field. Particularly, we proposed a novel probabilistic deep learning reliability modelling approach and demonstrate it in the Turbofan Engine Degradation Dataset.

cs.LG↗