arXiv subjects

Antonio Rago

Publications and source records attributed to Antonio Rago.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Evaluating Uncertainty Quantification Methods in Argumentative Large Language Models

Research in uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models (LLMs) is increasingly important towards guaranteeing the reliability of this groundbreaking technology. We explore the integration of LLM UQ methods in argumentative LLMs (ArgLLMs), an explainable LLM framework for decision-making based on computational argumentation in which UQ plays a critical role. We conduct experiments to evaluate ArgLLMs' performance on claim verification tasks when using different LLM UQ methods, inherently performing an assessment of the UQ methods' effectiveness. Moreover, the experimental procedure itself is a novel way of evaluating the effectiveness of UQ methods, especially when intricate and potentially contentious statements are present. Our results demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, direct prompting is an effective UQ strategy in ArgLLMs, outperforming considerably more complex approaches.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Gradient flow for parton distribution functions: first application to the pion

Parton distribution functions (PDFs) are central to precision QCD phenomenology. Their Mellin moments can be computed on the lattice, but direct determinations using local operators, besides $\langle x \rangle$, face severe challenges from reduced hypercubic symmetry, limiting results to the lowest moments. A recently proposed method resolves these issues using gradient flow. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method by computing ratios of flavor non-singlet pion PDF moments up to $\langle x^5 \rangle$, on four lattice spacings at $m_π\simeq 411$ MeV. The moments and reconstructed PDF agree quantitatively with recent phenomenological extractions.

hep-lat↗

arXiv2025

Explainable Prediction of the Mechanical Properties of Composites with CNNs

Composites are amongst the most important materials manufactured today, as evidenced by their use in countless applications. In order to establish the suitability of composites in specific applications, finite element (FE) modelling, a numerical method based on partial differential equations, is the industry standard for assessing their mechanical properties. However, FE modelling is exceptionally costly from a computational viewpoint, a limitation which has led to efforts towards applying AI models to this task. However, in these approaches: the chosen model architectures were rudimentary, feed-forward neural networks giving limited accuracy; the studies focused on predicting elastic mechanical properties, without considering material strength limits; and the models lacked transparency, hindering trustworthiness by users. In this paper, we show that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) equipped with methods from explainable AI (XAI) can be successfully deployed to solve this problem. Our approach uses customised CNNs trained on a dataset we generate using transverse tension tests in FE modelling to predict composites' mechanical properties, i.e., Young's modulus and yield strength. We show empirically that our approach achieves high accuracy, outperforming a baseline, ResNet-34, in estimating the mechanical properties. We then use SHAP and Integrated Gradients, two post-hoc XAI methods, to explain the predictions, showing that the CNNs use the critical geometrical features that influence the composites' behaviour, thus allowing engineers to verify that the models are trustworthy by representing the science of composites.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting

Judgmental forecasting employs human opinions to make predictions about future events, rather than exclusively historical data as in quantitative forecasting. When these opinions form an argumentative structure around forecasts, it is useful to study the properties of the forecasts from an argumentative perspective. In this paper, we advocate and formally define a property of argumentative coherence, which, in essence, requires that a forecaster's reasoning is coherent with their forecast. We then conduct three evaluations with our notion of coherence. First, we assess the impact of enforcing coherence on human forecasters as well as on Large Language Model (LLM)-based forecasters, given that they have recently shown to be competitive with human forecasters. In both cases, we show that filtering out incoherent predictions improves forecasting accuracy consistently, supporting the practical value of coherence in both human and LLM-based forecasting. Then, via crowd-sourced user experiments, we show that, despite its apparent intuitiveness and usefulness, users do not generally align with this coherence property. This points to the need to integrate, within argumentation-based judgmental forecasting, mechanisms to filter out incoherent opinions before obtaining group forecasting predictions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Exploring the Effect of Explanation Content and Format on User Comprehension and Trust in Healthcare

AI-driven tools for healthcare are widely acknowledged as potentially beneficial to health practitioners and patients, e.g. the QCancer regression tool for cancer risk prediction. However, for these tools to be trusted, they need to be supplemented with explanations. We examine how explanations' content and format affect user comprehension and trust when explaining QCancer's predictions. Regarding content, we deploy the SHAP and Occlusion-1 explanation methods. Regarding format, we present SHAP explanations, conventionally, as charts (SC) and Occlusion-1 explanations as charts (OC) as well as text (OT), to which their simpler nature lends itself. We conduct experiments with two sets of stakeholders: the general public (representing patients) and medical students (representing healthcare practitioners). Our experiments showed higher subjective comprehension and trust for Occlusion-1 over SHAP explanations based on content. However, when controlling for format, only OT outperformed SC, suggesting this trend is driven by preferences for text. Other findings corroborated that explanation format, rather than content, is often the critical factor.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A Methodology for Incompleteness-Tolerant and Modular Gradual Semantics for Argumentative Statement Graphs

Gradual semantics (GS) have demonstrated great potential in argumentation, in particular for deploying quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks (QBAFs) in a number of real-world settings, from judgmental forecasting to explainable AI. In this paper, we provide a novel methodology for obtaining GS for statement graphs, a form of structured argumentation framework, where arguments and relations between them are built from logical statements. Our methodology differs from existing approaches in the literature in two main ways. First, it naturally accommodates incomplete information, so that arguments with partially specified premises can play a meaningful role in the evaluation. Second, it is modularly defined to leverage on any GS for QBAFs. We also define a set of novel properties for our GS and study their suitability alongside a set of existing properties (adapted to our setting) for two instantiations of our GS, demonstrating their advantages over existing approaches.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

MArgE: Meshing Argumentative Evidence from Multiple Large Language Models for Justifiable Claim Verification

Leveraging outputs from multiple large language models (LLMs) is emerging as a method for harnessing their power across a wide range of tasks while mitigating their capacity for making errors, e.g., hallucinations. However, current approaches to combining insights from multiple LLMs often involve unstructured interactions (e.g., free debate), resulting in model generations that are not faithfully justifiable. In this work, we introduce MArgE, a novel framework to provide formal structure to the evidence from each LLM, in the form of a tree of extracted arguments, for the task of claim verification. We use a variant of Argumentative LLMs (ArgLLMs), i.e. LLMs driven by frameworks and semantics from the field of computational argumentation, to construct structured argument trees for given claims. This process creates an inspectable pathway from the initial arguments to the final claim verification decisions, providing a faithful justification thereof. We show experimentally that MArgE can significantly outperform single LLMs, including three open-source models (4B to 8B parameters), GPT-4o-mini and existing ArgLLMs, as well as prior methods for unstructured multi-LLM debates. We thus demonstrate the advantages of incorporating formal, argumentative reasoning mechanisms when combining multiple LLM outputs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

On Gradual Semantics for Assumption-Based Argumentation

In computational argumentation, gradual semantics are fine-grained alternatives to extension-based and labelling-based semantics . They ascribe a dialectical strength to (components of) arguments sanctioning their degree of acceptability. Several gradual semantics have been studied for abstract, bipolar and quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks (QBAFs), as well as, to a lesser extent, for some forms of structured argumentation. However, this has not been the case for assumption-based argumentation (ABA), despite it being a popular form of structured argumentation with several applications where gradual semantics could be useful. In this paper, we fill this gap and propose a family of novel gradual semantics for equipping assumptions, which are the core components in ABA frameworks, with dialectical strengths. To do so, we use bipolar set-based argumentation frameworks as an abstraction of (potentially non-flat) ABA frameworks and generalise state-of-the-art modular gradual semantics for QBAFs. We show that our gradual ABA semantics satisfy suitable adaptations of desirable properties of gradual QBAF semantics, such as balance and monotonicity. We also explore an argument-based approach that leverages established QBAF modular semantics directly, and use it as baseline. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic ABA frameworks to compare our gradual ABA semantics with its argument-based counterpart and assess convergence.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Contestability in Quantitative Argumentation

Contestable AI requires that AI-driven decisions align with human preferences. While various forms of argumentation have been shown to support contestability, Edge-Weighted Quantitative Bipolar Argumentation Frameworks (EW-QBAFs) have received little attention. In this work, we show how EW-QBAFs can be deployed for this purpose. Specifically, we introduce the contestability problem for EW-QBAFs, which asks how to modify edge weights (e.g., preferences) to achieve a desired strength for a specific argument of interest (i.e., a topic argument). To address this problem, we propose gradient-based relation attribution explanations (G-RAEs), which quantify the sensitivity of the topic argument's strength to changes in individual edge weights, thus providing interpretable guidance for weight adjustments towards contestability. Building on G-RAEs, we develop an iterative algorithm that progressively adjusts the edge weights to attain the desired strength. We evaluate our approach experimentally on synthetic EW-QBAFs that simulate the structural characteristics of personalised recommender systems and multi-layer perceptrons, and demonstrate that it can solve the problem effectively.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Argumentative Ensembling for Robust Recourse under Model Multiplicity

In machine learning, it is common to obtain multiple equally performing models for the same prediction task, e.g., when training neural networks with different random seeds. Model multiplicity (MM) is the situation which arises when these competing models differ in their predictions for the same input, for which ensembling is often employed to determine an aggregation of the outputs. Providing recourse recommendations via counterfactual explanations (CEs) under MM thus becomes complex, since the CE may not be valid across all models, i.e., the CEs are not robust under MM. In this work, we formalise the problem of providing recourse under MM, which we name recourse-aware ensembling (RAE). We propose the idea that under MM, CEs for each individual model should be considered alongside their predictions so that the aggregated prediction and recourse are decided in tandem. Centred around this intuition, we introduce six desirable properties for solutions to this problem. For solving RAE, we propose a novel argumentative ensembling method which guarantees the robustness of CEs under MM. Specifically, our method leverages computational argumentation to explicitly represent the conflicts between models and counterfactuals regarding prediction results and CE validity. It then uses argumentation semantics to resolve the conflicts and obtain the final solution, in a manner which is parametric to the chosen semantics. Our method also allows for the specification of preferences over the models under MM, allowing further customisation of the ensemble. In a comprehensive theoretical analysis, we characterise the behaviour of argumentative ensembling with four different argumentation semantics. We then empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in satisfying desirable properties with eight instantiations of our method. (Abstract is shortened for arXiv.)

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

How Do People Revise Inconsistent Beliefs? Examining Belief Revision in Humans with User Studies

Understanding how humans revise their beliefs in light of new information is crucial for developing AI systems which can effectively model, and thus align with, human reasoning. While theoretical belief revision frameworks rely on a set of principles that establish how these operations are performed, empirical evidence from cognitive psychology suggests that people may follow different patterns when presented with conflicting information. In this paper, we present three comprehensive user studies showing that people consistently prefer explanation-based revisions, i.e., those which are guided by explanations, that result in changes to their belief systems that are not necessarily captured by classical belief change theory. Our experiments systematically investigate how people revise their beliefs with explanations for inconsistencies, whether they are provided with them or left to formulate them themselves, demonstrating a robust preference for what may seem non-minimal revisions across different types of scenarios. These findings have implications for AI systems designed to model human reasoning or interact with humans, suggesting that such systems should accommodate explanation-based, potentially non-minimal belief revision operators to better align with human cognitive processes.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Argumentative Large Language Models for Explainable and Contestable Claim Verification

The profusion of knowledge encoded in large language models (LLMs) and their ability to apply this knowledge zero-shot in a range of settings makes them promising candidates for use in decision-making. However, they are currently limited by their inability to provide outputs which can be faithfully explained and effectively contested to correct mistakes. In this paper, we attempt to reconcile these strengths and weaknesses by introducing \emph{argumentative LLMs (ArgLLMs)}, a method for augmenting LLMs with argumentative reasoning. Concretely, ArgLLMs construct argumentation frameworks, which then serve as the basis for formal reasoning in support of decision-making. The interpretable nature of these argumentation frameworks and formal reasoning means that any decision made by ArgLLMs may be explained and contested. We evaluate ArgLLMs' performance experimentally in comparison with state-of-the-art techniques, in the context of the decision-making task of claim verification. We also define novel properties to characterise contestability and assess ArgLLMs formally in terms of these properties.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Free Argumentative Exchanges for Explaining Image Classifiers

Deep learning models are powerful image classifiers but their opacity hinders their trustworthiness. Explanation methods for capturing the reasoning process within these classifiers faithfully and in a clear manner are scarce, due to their sheer complexity and size. We provide a solution for this problem by defining a novel method for explaining the outputs of image classifiers with debates between two agents, each arguing for a particular class. We obtain these debates as concrete instances of Free Argumentative eXchanges (FAXs), a novel argumentation-based multi-agent framework allowing agents to internalise opinions by other agents differently than originally stated. We define two metrics (consensus and persuasion rate) to assess the usefulness of FAXs as argumentative explanations for image classifiers. We then conduct a number of empirical experiments showing that FAXs perform well along these metrics as well as being more faithful to the image classifiers than conventional, non-argumentative explanation methods. All our implementations can be found at https://github.com/koriavinash1/FAX.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The singlet scalar state in a chiral ensemble in $SU(2)$ with two fundamental flavours

Composite Higgs models are a class of Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) models proposed to address the hierarchy and naturalness problems associated with the Standard Model (SM) Higgs. A new QCD-like strongly interacting sector based on $SU(2)$ with two fundamental flavours can be used to build a composite Higgs model which is not yet ruled out by experiment. The role of the singlet scalar resonance will affect Higgs phenomenology at the LHC. In this project our goal is to understand the properties of the singlet scalar state in the new strongly interacting sector in isolation as a first step to understanding the role of this state in composite Higgs models. We present here the first lattice results for the mass of the $σ$ in $SU(2)$ with two fundamental flavours using exponential clover Wilson fermions.

hep-lat↗

arXiv2025

Explainable Time Series Prediction of Tyre Energy in Formula One Race Strategy

Formula One (F1) race strategy takes place in a high-pressure and fast-paced environment where split-second decisions can drastically affect race results. Two of the core decisions of race strategy are when to make pit stops (i.e. replace the cars' tyres) and which tyre compounds (hard, medium or soft, in normal conditions) to select. The optimal pit stop decisions can be determined by estimating the tyre degradation of these compounds, which in turn can be computed from the energy applied to each tyre, i.e. the tyre energy. In this work, we trained deep learning models, using the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 team's historic race data consisting of telemetry, to forecast tyre energies during races. Additionally, we fitted XGBoost, a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm, to the same dataset and compared the results, with both giving impressive performance. Furthermore, we incorporated two different explainable AI methods, namely feature importance and counterfactual explanations, to gain insights into the reasoning behind the forecasts. Our contributions thus result in an explainable, automated method which could assist F1 teams in optimising their race strategy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Explainable Reinforcement Learning for Formula One Race Strategy

In Formula One, teams compete to develop their cars and achieve the highest possible finishing position in each race. During a race, however, teams are unable to alter the car, so they must improve their cars' finishing positions via race strategy, i.e. optimising their selection of which tyre compounds to put on the car and when to do so. In this work, we introduce a reinforcement learning model, RSRL (Race Strategy Reinforcement Learning), to control race strategies in simulations, offering a faster alternative to the industry standard of hard-coded and Monte Carlo-based race strategies. Controlling cars with a pace equating to an expected finishing position of P5.5 (where P1 represents first place and P20 is last place), RSRL achieves an average finishing position of P5.33 on our test race, the 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix, outperforming the best baseline of P5.63. We then demonstrate, in a generalisability study, how performance for one track or multiple tracks can be prioritised via training. Further, we supplement model predictions with feature importance, decision tree-based surrogate models, and decision tree counterfactuals towards improving user trust in the model. Finally, we provide illustrations which exemplify our approach in real-world situations, drawing parallels between simulations and reality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Determination of the pseudoscalar decay constant from SU(2) with two fundamental flavors

The SU(2) gauge group with two fundamental flavors is a candidate for a composite Higgs extension of the Standard Model. Central to Higgs phenomenology is a non-perturbative determination of observables of the theory, such as the decay constant of the pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons. We present preliminary results for the continuum limit of the pseudoscalar decay constant using a mixed-action setup, with non-perturbatively improved stabilized Wilson Fermions on the sea, and maximally twisted valence quarks. Pivotal to this study is the recent porting of our simulation suite HiRep to GPU architecture.

hep-lat↗

arXiv2024

Scaling SU(2) to 1000 GPUs using HiRep

HiRep allows flexible simulations of higher representations of Wilson Fermions with various actions and gauge groups and a range of inverters and integrators. This is particularly important for enabling evaluations of observables relevant to phenomenological inputs for Beyond-the-Standard-Model physics from lattice field theory. We present progress on the GPU porting of available features, especially in terms of scaling to large jobs on AMD GPUs.

hep-lat↗